Most national governments are busy planning health contingencies in the event that the current avian flu pandemic migrates into the human population. An international conference of health ministers is convening in Ottawa Canada as I write this post.
Governments warn that cities, entire regions, or even country borders may be shut down in the event of a human flu pandemic
Individuals may be quarantined but the economy doesn't have to grind to a halt the way it did in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.
Watching a recent rerun episode of the hit TV series "Friends", the one where Monica and Chandler keep intercepting a "to-die-for" (excuse the pun) cheese cake from a Chicago bakery, that keeps turning up on their neighbor's doorstep, got me thinking.
Assuming that a pandemic will advance in two or more waves (like in 1918) and last at least 3-4 months or 12-16 weeks, there are technologies and capabilities today that didn't exist in last 1918 pandemic- the cell phone, the internet and extensive home delivery. Almost anything that we buy in the real world can be bought online.
The workplace may shut but business doesn't need to stop
In the event of a pandemic, a large portion of the population doesn't have to be house-bound and confined, but can now work from home, with army of gadgets and tools -- cell and home phones, sms, computers, chat lines, blogs, videoconferencing and broadband connections. As we saw during the SARS outbreak in Toronto, many savvy organizations had the foresight and agility to plan for home workers. Private firms and governments should now make contingencies to create an efficient home-based mobile workforce, even to the point of installing broadband connections at home for key personnel. Your corporate Web and phone-in facilities may be tested during a pandemic, so these capabilities need to be on alert and ramped up when needed.
In Asia, it's believed that one in every two people who catch the bird flu don't survive.
We just don't know what the death rate will be in a human pandemic. Some experts are conservatively predicting 5-20 % -that's still hundreds of millions of deaths around the world. We should be asking ourselves some strategic questions.
- Can our company operate at ¼ to ½ human capacity levels?
- Do we have contingent workforces -retirees or volunteers, or returning migrants that we can call back to work, or get to work from home if our staff starts getting sick?
- Can your business survive if the tacit and explicit levels of knowledge and expertise starts to disappear as people succumb to flu or die?
- Can key expertise and knowledge be cataloged and harvested now , to ensure business continuity in a future post-pandemic world?
- What new emerging smart technologies and business models can we adopt today, that will maintain or increase business efficiencies, with a reduced workforce during the height of the pandemic?
National borders or city limits may shut, but the economy need not cease.
Industry will need to temporarily shift its mindset from global, back to local.
We are likely to witness a phenomenon known as flu refugees- a new class of wealthier migrants escaping flu pandemics in their own "resident" countries, returning back to their ethnic homelands, creating immediate worker shortages in any country were human2human transmission first breaks out, but a fresh pool of talent in their home countries.
Businesses should now start sourcing alternate local suppliers for raw materials or create plans for rapid inventory stockpiles that would be triggered at the first signs of human to human flu transmission anywhere on the globe. This still leaves a short-lived opportunity window before borders close to 1) stock up on inventory or to 2) fast-track exports to clients south of the border. i.e. Many Canadian bakeries use just-in-time deliveries, often relying on imported bulk shipment of flour and yeast from across the border This may be disrupted during a flu pandemic.
Malls may close their doors, but the shopping doesn't need to stop.
The popularity of online grocery delivery services that offer home delivery of products will jump exponentially during a pandemic. In fact, we can predict that they may be so swamped that companies won't take on new customers. Traditional bricks and mortar grocery stores should partner with local delivery services to continue to offer groceries via home delivery in lieu of in-store shopping. With closed borders Canadians may not get their fresh fruits and vegetables from the US or South America during the course of the flu pandemic, but there's always frozen veggies that we can stock up on.
Healthcare may close but we can still heal ourselves
Family physicians like home grocery delivery services won't take on new patients. Pharmacies hospitals and walkin clinics will be overwhelmed. Some may be so understaffed to the point of closure.
Even though the Canadian government assures us that they will stockpile enough Tamiflu for all Canadians, distribution may be disrupted. Take vitamin supplements, buy masks now, and don't forget the garlic. (also see my Oct 11, 2005 post- siRNA technology likely prevents Bird Flu-Our leaders missing the boat )
Likewise, schools may shut, but the education can continue uninterrupted.
Teachers can post lessons or instructions on classroom blogs or to cell phones, a ubiquitous technology for most students. It's feasible to plan to work with local cable TV stations to produce grade-specific curriculum for a local community. Each grade in the entire viewing community would have their own TV channel and even the possibility to interact on-air with teachers during special phone-in times where students can ask questions from home. Lessons also can be burned to DVDs and mailed to students
Other institutions can create similar plans.
(N.B. some of the above ideas were summarized from other blogs)
Foresight and Coordination
The above contingencies require that we change our health priorities, as to who gets vaccinated first. Along with health care staff, and emergency personnel, we need to add home delivery people, post office staff and all food handlers and other essential personnel in this new disaster economy value chain since they'll be essential in keeping the pandemic economy running as smoothly as possible until the flu threat passes.
Regional emergency TV and radio broadcast capabilities should be set up to keep the public abreast of news concerning the spread of the pandemic.
All of the above will require the kind of local, regional and federal champions and coordination that we haven't seen since World War 2
Since business can't anticipate all the "wild card" surprises, risks and uncertainties and when they'll happen, instead of planning disaster by disaster, an even smarter tactic would be to develop a series of generic disaster response modules based on perceived levels of risk and threat. This could be based on a number of factors such as severity, frequency, impact, vulnerability, timing, primary and secondary consequences and others
Something like a pandemic or a bioterrorist attack, that has longer-lasting consequences could trigger a higher level response module then a lower level risk -like a local severe rain storm or flood. We can catalog various disasters into color coded modules of response and train staff to trigger and initiate the appropriate actions. As conditions change, module response levels can be adjusted appropriately.
With the exception a a few locations, most Canadian communities are flexible enough to become self sufficient during a flu pandemic if enough foresight and planning is done now, while we still have breathing time....(pun intended)
Prevention
The ultimate solution is of course -prevention
Writing in the Houston Chronicle, Rochelle Regodon reminds us:
"We've known for decades where the influenzas that sweep our globe every year come from: They nearly always originate in chickens, ducks and pigs living in great numbers close to people in southern China."
"Typically, flu spreads from ducks and chickens to humans, or from ducks to pigs to people. The virus often mutates, becoming more virulent as it jumps from one species to another. It is most dangerous when it can be passed from person to person."
"The key to prevention lies in improved animal husbandry and farm hygiene." (see my Oct 3, 2005 post Smart Germ Proof Surfaces )
"Animals on southern China farms usually live in crowded, inhumane conditions, crammed together with barely enough space to turn around. These farms are the perfect reservoirs for the disease. Shigeru Omi, Western Pacific regional director of WHO, points out that the only way to reduce the threat of bird flu to humans is to change farming practices. "This means a thorough overhaul of animal husbandry practices and the way animals are raised for food in the region. I believe that anything less than that will only result in further threats to public health."
In China, where the deaths of farmed animals from various diseases cause a loss of $2.8 billion a year, the Ministry of Agriculture is finally taking action. The ministry has established disease-free zones in five of China's provinces by teaching farmers how to improve sanitation and living conditions for animals.
But this is a little like closing the barn door after the horses have escaped.
When health and agriculture officials around the world have known for so long how influenza spreads, why has it taken this much time for the issue to be tabled ?
It shows that sometimes only a pending crisis at your doorstep initiates any type of action.
...for more good flu information see David Pollard's blog today Oct 23, 2005 : Preparing for the Flu Pandemic
For some good news see New Influenza Vaccine Takes only Weeks vs Months to Mass Produce
Walter Derzko
Expert, Consultant and Guest Speaker on emerging Smart Technologies, Strategic Planning, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "
To explore smart contingencies in any future emergency or any other smart technologies in your industry - Contact Me
.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"
- old Japanese proverb
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The emergence of H5N1 flu pandemic virus virus can be prevented by vaccinating poultry workers, starting in South Asia.
If it emerges it can be slowed by virological checking ov airline cabin air filters, and if it gets here it can be reduced by a "Stay Home if Unwell" education campaign.
Posted by: Richard Lawson | October 24, 2005 at 04:37 PM