The "descent" or "collapse" Peak Oil Scenarios from my previous post are supported by a pending IEA report. The notion of peak oil and peak gas is now being acknowledged by mainstream business and even the oil sector itself and not just "fringe" energy groups.
IEA report 'warns of oil field declines'
"Output from the world's oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, a "leaked" draft
report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) says, according to a UK newspaper. The
Financial Times said the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook report, which studies the
biggest fields, showed that without extra investment to raise production, the natural
annual rate of output decline was 9.1%. The findings suggested the world would struggle
to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in
the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and to meet long-term demand, said the newspaper,
according to a Reuters report. It said the issue would become even more acute as prices
fell and investment decisions were delayed."
N.B. This financial crisis has the real posibility of turning into a depression, stretching 3-4 years...something that most politicians and business people will admit could happen privately but not stating publically yet. With peak oil likely rocketing oil prices back upward on or after 2013, and hyperinflation like we've never seen before, we could witness two depressions-back-to-back..a scenario too frightening for most people to contemplate. Add climate change (drought, lack of sun spots and the possibility of global cooling-not global warming, as everyone is convinced will happen) into the mix and we are heading for really challenging times !!!
The IEA reacted this way to the leaked report:
IEA Statement on Unauthorised Press Coverage of World Energy Outlook 2008
The Financial Times carried a cover page article this morning and a second article on page 4 allegedly reporting on the findings of the forthcoming WEO 2008. This article was drafted without any consultation with the IEA. It appears to be based on an early version of a draft from several months ago that was subsequently revised and updated. The numbers in the article can be misleading and should not be quoted or considered to be official IEA results. We are dismayed that such a comprehensive and important IEA report was made public without our input and verification.
The IEA will present the final and accurate results of the World Energy Outlook 2008 officially as planned at a press conference in London on 12 November. At that time, we will be happy to discuss the results and their implications for the global energy and climate in full detail.