What can turn this recession into a depression? 10 triggers

 

 

Some people see good news and light at the end of the tunnel (see blog post) I'm still optimistic about entrepreneurship in 2009 and new-to-the-world startups. Some opportunity savvy entrepreneurs will manage to turn the change and  chaos into incredible opportunities.

 

However all in all, the overwhelming flood of bad news still outweighs the meager punctuations of good tidings.

 

 

What can turn this recession into a depression? In short: continued loss of confidence and trust in the US and global financial system. Any one or a combination of these events ( and prerequisite factors) could trigger the Depression Avalanche

:

 

 

1)       The recognition that Obama’s stimulus packages and trillion dollar bailouts are having no effect, More fiscal pump-priming and monetary-policy loosening over the next three to four months will just delay the inevitable  The mood in the country turns from Obama Euphoria to Obama Overhype and Obama Disenchantment

2)       One or more of the Big Three automakers files for chapter 11. Chinese or Indian carmakers pick off remains.

3)       Run on banks as financial institutions start to close their doors as the next financial bubble bursts-overextended commercial mortgages and retail store closings or any one of the other 14 bubbles that have yet to burst (,,,How bad is the house crisis? you can now buy a house in Detroit if you want to for $1,000. (see here )

4)       An unexpected geopolitical event  rocks financial markets and halts global trade (like the assassination of archduke Ferdinand did in 1914 that lead to WW1) ie

            a) Avian Flu outbreak (remember the 2007 scares) or 

            b) a global internet glitch paralizes communications or  

            c) Israel with the help of the USA, attacks Iran, which in turn retaliates,

            d) tensions betwen the USA and China over control of newly discovered oil & gas fields or

            e) arms sales into moldering geopolitical hot spots by USA, UK, Sweden, France, Israel,  China and Russia

5)       Unemployment skyrockets in the US hitting one in five or one in four

6)       Civil demonstrations and riots break out against governments anywhere on the globe. US delares marshal law, orchistrates mass arrests and sets up  internment camps similar to the ones in 1914-1920 in Canada.and during World War 2 in the US and Canada

7)       Some US state governments and/or  Canadian provinces start to announce or hint at bankruptcy

8)       China, Japan and the petro-states loose trust in US treasury bills

 9)       The US dollar takes a tumble

10)   Sudden & unexpected switch from deflation and stagflation to hyperinflation and rising interest rates

 

.....      .11) ...more  how-2-books for Dummies !!!

 

  

Related posts:

Smart Economy-My10 Hot predictions for 2009 

and 82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008 

and  Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn – June 25, 2008, Ontario College of Art Design, Toronto, ON

  

Consumers and business owners and managers need to keep a keen watch over all of these factors and milestones and what could trigger them.

  

Everyone needs to become their own economist. Ask a bunch of "what-if" questions and what could the consequences be? Trust your gut feel.

 

  

Walter Derzko- Wishing everyone a safe and happy New Year!!

  

© 2005-2008

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

 

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

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Comments

[edward2020]

The link to the $1000 house is malformed. Love your blog!