Now that green shoots are wilting and stock markerts are retrenching all over the world, people are asking ---when the recovery starts, who will be the leading countries, coming out of the pack?
One thing for sure--it won't be countries will high debt-to-GDP ratios, excessive bailouts and exhuberant spending such as the US or the UK or Japan. After the G8 Summit, Canadian Prime Minister Stephan Harper admitted:
"Recovery may be somewhat slower...a gradual recovery as opposed to a rapid recovery." This was followed by..."we have to be prepared to accept the fact that predictions may change again."...that's code for more risks, financial and asset deleveraging and uncertainty to come.
Here's my First-track & Fast Track Recovery List Canada in North America (Not the USA) Norway+, Switzerland+, Denmark+, Sweden+, Finland, Austria, Netherlands, Poland*, Ukraine* in Europe (Germany later in the business cycle) Singapore, Hong Kong in Asia (followed by China & India later in the cycle due to possible water and food shortages and threats of famine) UPDATE July 21, 2009: 160,000 people suffer water shortage as drought hits NE China & Drought in India New Zealand
*FDI due to Euro 2012 +Little or no debt going into recession
N.B. If the world gets hit with a second round of bird flu or swine fu this fall, all bets are off. Disruptions /Wild Cards that could derail the recovery Waste-water irrigation (2005-onwards): Corruption and drought conditions around the world are forcing urban farmers in some developing countries to water crops with sewage waste water or industrial waste water. This practise is condoned or tolerated. Waste water is even auctioned off by local government officials. -- Sewage waters a tenth of the world’s irrigated crops; Source: New Scientist Aug 2004; http://technology.newscientist.com/article/dn6297 Walter Derzko
Water catastrophe (2009-2015)
Over-Irrigation and unregulated wells in India are creating potential for water catastrophe; At the annual Stockholm Water Symposium in Sweden in 2004, researchers suggests that the pumps, which transformed Indian farming, bring 200 cubic kilometres of water to the surface each year. But only a fraction of that is replaced by the monsoon rains. Source:-- Asian farmers sucking the continent dry; New Scientist Aug 28, 2004; http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6321
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