While Iran and North /South Korea have been considered nuclear hotspots on the globe, a third hotspot is emerging. The Crimean pennisula in Ukraine, which leased port space for the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Ukraine, which is nuclear weapon-free state, does not allow nuclear weapons on its territory according to its constitution. Ukraine wants to monitor if the Russian Black Sea Fleet in carrying nuclear missles, but Russia is denying access and independent verification, just like Iran denied monitoring access and verification to the UN.
In a story called: Experts view return of Russian security agents to Crimea as threat to Ukraine; ( BBC Monitoring Former Soviet Union. London: May 21, 2010. Glavred, Kiev, in Russian 19 May 10/BBC) political scientists express their concern:
Why do the Russians not allow verification in the fleet?
Russia today "will lay down its life to prevent verification, checks of the weapons and contents of the vessels that come to us", political scientists Yevhen Zherebetskyy noted.
In his words, Russia is planning seriously to change and upgrade its fleet. Under this plan, big ocean-going ships will soon be moved somewhere or simply dismantled, and in their place corvettes and short range missile ships will appear for inland seas. Because Russia does not need big ships strategically speaking, the expert said.
"There also exists a problem connected with nuclear weapons. For example, at present the flagship Moskva has 16 tactical missiles, but what else it has is unknown. Although nuclear warheads can be placed on it. In other words, ammunition on all missile ships and helicopters can be replaced by nuclear weapons. And we cannot check this, because we have no apparatus for remote verification of the type of weapons on ships of the Black Sea Fleet. There is such apparatus on one helicopter, but even that belongs to the Black Sea Fleet," Mr
Zherebetskyy said, explaining the essence of the problem. Ukraine is a non-nuclear state and so there cannot be military units on its territory carrying nuclear weapons on board. "If we renounced nuclear weapons and Russia is a guarantor of our security, then we have an absolute right to check whether there are such weapons on Russian ships stationed on the territory of our state. The Russians are not allowing this. And correspondingly, Russian counter-intelligence will work hard to prevent our intelligence agents from finding out about these things," Yevhen Zherebetskyy said.
Credit: Glavred, Kiev, in Russian 19 May 10
Implications:
Concerned groups need to urgently raise this issue with the Canadian government and Foreign Affairs as a nuclear security concern before the G8 and G20 summits begin in Toronto in June , since Canada, The USA and NATO are guarantors of Ukraine’s security for giving up nuclear weapons on its territory.
See Story below:
Experts view return of Russian security agents to Crimea as threat to Ukraine Anonymous. BBC Monitoring Former Soviet Union. London: May 21, 2010. "
Glavred, Kiev, in Russian 19 May 10/BBC Monitoring/(c) BBC
The planned return of Russian counterintelligence officers to the Russian Black Sea Fleet's base in Crimea is fraught with negative consequences for Ukrainian national security, a website has reported. Quoting experts Rostyslav Pavlenko and Yevhen Zherebetskyy, it said that the legalization of the presence of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) will help the FSB to expand its agent network in southern Ukraine. It will create a mechanism for exerting greater influence on Ukraine. The following is the text of the article by Nadiya Mayna, entitled "Experts: we are seeing an invitation to Russian special services to come to Ukraine" published on the Ukrainian website Glavred on 19 May; subheadings are as published:
Officers of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation are returning to the Black Sea Fleet, and soon the FSB and the SBU [Security Service of Ukraine] will sign the relevant agreement about it. Recently 19 Russian counterintelligence officers left Crimea at the insistence of the SBU. The reason was the "unfriendly" behaviour of officers of the Russian special services. The director of the Political Analysis School of the Kiev Mohyla Academy National University, Rostyslav Pavlenko, and political scientist Yevhen Zherebetskyy talked about the significance for Ukraine of the stationing of Russian counterintelligence in Crimea and also about possible risks connected with it.
…[..]..
Possible consequences of the stationing of Russian counterintelligence in Crimea
Today the new authorities view the question of the stationing of Russian counterintelligence in Crimea differently, Rostyslav Pavlenko, director of the Political Analysis School of the Kiev Mohyla Academy National University, is sure. "Today we are effectively seeing an invitation to the Russian special services to come into the territory of Ukraine," he believes.
In Mr Pavlenko's opinion, in the context of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation left on the territory of Ukraine, one can talk immediately about several important consequences for Ukraine of the stationing of FSB officers in Crimea.
First, the stationing on the territory of Ukraine of the Russian special services means a legalization of their activity, the political scientist believes. "The agreements between the FSB and the SBU on not being permitted to work against each other and about other aspects are being observed very 'creatively'. In spite of all the violations of these agreements, legal bases are being created today for the Russian side to work on the territory of Ukraine. And this, correspondingly, raises the question of the national security of our state," the specialist said.
Second, there a collision of legislation. Counterintelligence has to carry out certain measures to render spies harmless or conduct operational investigation work. The legislation of Ukraine specifically forbids such activity to be carried out on the territory of the state. "In theory, FSB officers stationed on the territory of Ukraine should have to apply to the Ukrainian special services for help in conducting operational investigation activity. But in that case the question arises as to why then are they stationed on the territory of Ukraine at all, if by law they are obliged to apply for help to their Ukrainian counterparts?" Rostyslav Pavlenko explained. Apart from that, the stationing of Russian counterintelligence in Crimea undermines the prestige and effectiveness of the Ukrainian special services that are losing their monopoly on actions on their territory, the specialist believes.
Third, certain geopolitical and geostrategic problems may arise. "The Russian Federation's Black Sea Fleet will stay in Ukraine for a long time, thereby demonstrating the Russian presence and creating bases and possibilities for drawing Ukraine into operations that Russia will carry out," the political scientist said in explaining the threat.
The expert notes that 25 years is a long enough time during which a situation is not ruled out where the Black Sea Fleet, in particular the special services there, can be used in actions running counter to the interests of Ukraine. "We saw this in the example of the Georgian conflict, when the Black Sea Fleet in effect acted as party to the conflict and conducted combat actions against Georgia without agreeing its actions with the Ukrainian side," the political scientist said.
…[..]…
What do the Russians need a network of agents for?
It is very important for the Russians to gain control of Crimea, political scientist Yevhen Zherebetskyy is sure. The expert explained this need for Russia by the fact that "after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia in effect does not have any warm water, non-freezing deep water ports". Whereas we have Odessa.
"If everything continues to develop so 'well' as at present, then the Russians will try to spread their influence to Odessa, Kherson and Mykolayiv, making a sort of arc from the Dniester region, our entire Black Sea coast with its ports and Crimea up to Abkhazia, which they already have," the political scientist warned.
It is precisely for spreading its influence to Crimea and Ukraine that Russia needs a wide network special service agents, the specialist believes. What is more, he said that the situation was fairly complicated, since "in the period of independence the Ukrainian leadership has done nothing to ensure that Ukraine gained full power on the territory of Crimea".
"The return of FSB agents to Crimea is a means of creating a mechanism of influence on Ukraine"
In the opinion of Rostyslav Pavlenko, director of the Political Analysis School of the Kiev Mohyla Academy National University, the interest of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was always protected by military counterintelligence, which operates constantly in the fleet without asking anyone for permission. "Therefore the official establishment of the return of FSB agents to Ukraine signifies steps towards the development, legalization and creation of possibilities absolutely not connected only with the protection of the Black Sea Fleet. Obviously they will serve as a means of creating a mechanism of influence on Ukraine," the expert believes.
Apart from that, the political scientist stressed that representatives of the Russian Federation's Black Sea Fleet were noting with satisfaction that with the change of power there had been an end to attempts by the Ukrainian police to hinder the movement of Black Sea Fleet cargo around Sevastopol. "If you remember, it was movement last summer - weapons were being moved without agreement, missiles and other things potentially dangerous for the civilian population. Now they are noting with satisfaction that the Ukrainian side is not making use of its right to check it all," the specialist says.
For this reason Mr Pavlenko expressed the suspicion that the same thing would happen with a point in the future protocol between the FSB and SBU according to which FSB candidates being sent to serve in the Black Sea Fleet will be agreed with the Ukrainian side. "Proceeding from the attitude of the new authorities, it is entirely likely that this agreement will be purely formal," he explained.
Why do the Russians not allow verification in the fleet?
Russia today "will lay down its life to prevent verification, checks of the weapons and contents of the vessels that come to us", political scientists Yevhen Zherebetskyy noted.
In his words, Russia is planning seriously to change and upgrade its fleet. Under this plan, big ocean-going ships will soon be moved somewhere or simply dismantled, and in their place corvettes and short range missile ships will appear for inland seas. Because Russia does not need big ships strategically speaking, the expert said.
"There also exists a problem connected with nuclear weapons. For example, at present the flagship Moskva has 16 tactical missiles, but what else it has is unknown. Although nuclear warheads can be placed on it. In other words, ammunition on all missile ships and helicopters can be replaced by nuclear weapons. And we cannot check this, because we have no apparatus for remote verification of the type of weapons on ships of the Black Sea Fleet. There is such apparatus on one helicopter, but even that belongs to the Black Sea Fleet," Mr Zherebetskyy said, explaining the essence of the problem.
Ukraine is a non-nuclear state and so there cannot be military units on its territory carrying nuclear weapons on board. "If we renounced nuclear weapons and Russia is a guarantor of our security, then we have an absolute right to check whether there are such weapons on Russian ships stationed on the territory of our state. The Russians are not allowing this. And correspondingly, Russian counter-intelligence will work hard to prevent our intelligence agents from finding out about these things," Yevhen Zherebetskyy said.
Credit: Glavred, Kiev, in Russian 19 May 10
Recent Comments