West should not be fooled by Russia's positve posturing of collaboration; "Leaked" foreign policy document compromises Russian minister

"Leaked" foreign policy document compromises Russian minister - website

 

 

Anonymous.  BBC Monitoring Former Soviet Union.  London: May 21, 2010. Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal website, Moscow, in Russian 20 May 10/BBC Monitoring/(c) BBC

 

Text of report by anti-Kremlin Russian current affairs websiteYezhednevnyy Zhurnal on 20 May

 

 

[Commentary by Aleksandr Golts: "Realism For Official Use"

(Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal Online)]

Realism for official use

Our colleagues from Russkiy Newsweek, who last week published a certain MFA [Ministry of Foreign Affairs] document for official use, which had supposedly been approved by the president back in February, initiated a heated discussion among foreign political commentators.  Some -like the authors of the journal article itself, believe that the text entitled,

"Programme of Effective Application of Foreign Political Factors on a Systematic Basis For Purposes of Long-Term Development of the Russian Federation," testifies to a radical shift in domestic foreign policy. Supposedly, following Medvedev's advice to "stop puffing our cheeks," MFA officials have concentrated on how to help modernization.  It is not enough that they have defined specific economic projects that should be promoted with each of the world countries.  It turns out that they have also come to a conclusion that is entirely revolutionary in terms of its boldness.  You will not believe it, but it turns out that, in the matter of modernization of Russia, we cannot do without the West.  And therefore, we are in for a decisive international warming.

No!  - Dmitriy Sidorov decisively objects to them on the pages of Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal.  The entire document is a clever setup, organized by Sergey Lavrov's competitor -the head of Putin's pocket MFA, Yuriy Ushakov.  All the words about improvement of relations, Sidorov believes, are merely a ploy.  Meanwhile, Sergey Lavrov himself spoke out rather vaguely about the publication: "I have several times noted the aforementioned journal and the aforementioned author as a master of sensations.  If those who make up these sensations carefully read the Russian Federation President's Message to the Federal Assembly, which posed the corresponding tasks of increasing effectiveness of utilizing foreign political factors for solving the problems of the country's development, there would be less sensation.  This is absolutely planned work at the direct instruction of the president."  It would seem that he expressed some reproach, but at the same time did not refute the authenticity.

And so, we have before us a frank document, not intended for publication, about the tasks of our country's foreign policy.  The most amazing thing is that, having familiarized myself with it, I certainly did not find that over which my colleagues are arguing.  And specifically, any hints of the desirability to improve relations withthe West. 

 

Rather, quite the opposite. "The world financial-economic crisis is a reflection of the crisis of the formulated Western-centric system of US-dominated global management, as well as the stage of globalization that corresponds to it," Sergey Lavrov tells the president in the accompanying letter, and not without some degree of gloating.  Just as the United States was our geopolitical rival, so it remains: "The priority direction of US policy is still to neutralize actions undertaken by the energy resource-exporter countries that are not controlled by the West on strengthening their positions and coordinating work on the energy markets."  Although Obama is trying to reject the policy of domination, it is unlikely that he will be successful in this: "The inertia of militarization of foreign policy, like that of the economic and technological development of the country, is too deep in America for the political forces that profess the traditional US foreign policy philosophy and the corporate interests that back them not to try to turn back time."

Our foreign policy strategists are demonstrating no less positiveness and desire for compromises in their approach to specific international problems: "To oppose the broad internationalization of the Arctic problems," "to achieve US rejection of unilateral actions in deployment of elements of global missile defence in Europe," etc., etc.

 

The document's entire positive aspect consists specifically of the conclusion that the world economic crisis, as it turns out, is advantageous to Russia: "Favourable foreign conditions are already being created for solving the problems of modernization and technological breakthrough.  Specifically, the global crisis has to a certain degree leveled the starting positions of states at the stage of post-crisis development, depriving the group of leading developed countries of a significant part of the advantages that they had accumulated."  The matter lies not even in the fact that such a realistic conclusion is being drawn by diplomats of a state whose economic decline was much deeper than in the aforementioned "leading developed countries," and most likely, there is no discussion of any leveling of starting conditions. 

 

And it is not even that the real hopes for foreign investments are directly associated with the West's emergence from crisis, but with the fact that it will be hit by a "second wave."  (recession or depression)-Walter Derzko 

 

 

In essence, we are told in open text: They are in trouble, so let us make use of this.  Such a positive agenda must undoubtedly inspire our partners. 

 

 (see Implications Below-mutually assured global financial collapse?--Walter Derzko

For the sake of fairness, I will note that such realism extends not only to the Western states.  Specifically, the document recommends "devoting particular attention to monitoring the increasing role of China in international affairs, including under the vantage point of consequences of Beijing's activity for our global and regional interests."  At the same time, it becomes clear that Moscow has an excellent instrument of influence on Podnebesnaya ["Celestial Kingdom"]: In the Security Council, "the Chinese often need our support more than we do theirs."  The discussion, as one might guess, is about the fact that the PRC [People's Republic of China] would not like to be alone in exercising the right of veto in voting on the sanctions against Iran.  That is, on the matter that is most important for the US (by participation in which the Americans will judge Moscow's degree of sincerity), Russia will act on the basis of the positions... of China.

When the matter comes to the CIS countries, diplomats do not stand on ceremony at all.  Here is the mutually advantageous project they intend to promote in the fraternal Ukraine, for example: "To support efforts of Russian oil companies, who are striving to use the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline in the reverse direction, which would limit Ukraine's access to Caspian oil."  That is, the main task is to bind our partner hand and foot.  This looks particularly amusing in light of the current endless talk about mutually advantageous cooperation with Kiev.

And the MFA pragmatism reaches its final apogee when the discussion turns to peacekeeping.  The document calls for "strengthening and providing outside multi-component aid to peacekeeping activity under the auspices of the UN, so as to obtain preferences in the future in establishing economic ties with states that have emerged from conflict."  Certain naive people believe that peacekeepers must be principally neutral.  But what kind of neutrality is possible here, if the most important thing for Russia is economic preferences?  If we are guided by such logic, then we should support whatever side promises us the most.

The same is true of countries that are found in international isolation: "To strive for specific economic return, including preferential conditions (most favoured status for goods, investments, preferential transit, etc.) from the Russian Federation's consistent support of a number of countries (specifically, Armenia, Uzbekistan, Iran, Cuba, Syria, Serbia) as they emerge from international isolation."  I will not say why Serbia and Armenia found themselves on the same board as Iran and Cuba on this list, but I know for sure that these are hopes built on sand.  As experience shows, having emerged from isolation, states begin to orient themselves towards those who are advantageous, and not towards those who previously gave them consistent support.

I think that those who organized the leak of this document really seriously compromised Sergey Lavrov.  Because it is rather difficult to engage in foreign policy in the 21st Century guided by the dogma of Realpolitik of the 19th Century.  Leaders of any state will think 10 times before deciding to participate in such important projects for Russia.  Why facilitate the modernization of a country that professes openly imperialistic approaches

Surely, it would be better if our MFA officials puffed their cheeks and expounded on the endless topic of getting up off of our knees.  Then, at least, there would be the illusion that they are consciously fooling around and playing up to the public.  But now, it becomes clear that this realism for official use really is their ideology.

Credit: Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal website, Moscow, in Russian 20 May 10

 

Implications: Mutually assured global financial  collapse ?

 

Senior Reagan Administration offficials have boasted that invetsment banks manipulated trading in oil and gas prices to bankrupt the former Soviet Union, who could not survive financially on lower energy prices. Someone  (China ? Russia? or  even maybe  even the US government) started selling off billions of dollars in treasury bills, that led to the US financial crisis, the $787 Billion in bailouts( for 2010 the US congress has set aside $14Trillion dollars for bailouts)  and the global econmic collapse two years ago  last fall. Russia dumped Fannie May and Freedie Mac stocks to percipitate the collapse. Both Russia and the USA see each other in a weakened position and may instigate an artificial collapse--a doule dip depression and inflict  a final economic death blow--Waltrr  Derzko