3 scenarios for Russia
After a prolonged period of economic stagnation, Russia is forced to dramatically shift gears. Moscow rejects liberal-oriented economic solutions, steps that could lead to calls for more political openness. It ultimately manages to energize and diversify its economy without extensive liberalization by restructuring its energy sector and forging strategic commercial and financial alliances with China, Germany, and South Korea.
Bottom-Up Liberalization & Modernization
A struggle for dominance between reformist and conservative elements results in a stalemate, reducing the government’s ability to address economic challenges. Fueled by the dynamism of a new generation of entrepreneurs and capital from Moscow, new enterprises emerge in a number of Russia’s regions, symbolizing Russia’s economic rebirth and the beginning of political pluralism.
The Russian government remains unable to solve the country’s deep economic and social problems and deflects alternative solutions that might weaken its grip on political power. The country continues to stagnate, forcing the regions to “fend for themselves.” Gradually, state capacity erodes, social fabric breaks down, and the country begins to fragment politically and geographically.