Smart Economy

Mathematicians aim to take publishers out of publishing

Episciences Project to launch series of community-run, open-access journals.

17 January 2013

Jean-Pierre Demailly is a leader in an effort to create a researcher-run publishing system.

Mathematicians plan to launch a series of free open-access journals that will host their peer-reviewed
articles on the preprint server arXiv. The project was publicly revealed yesterday in a blog post by Tim Gowers, a Fields Medal winner and mathematician at the University of Cambridge, UK.

 

The initiative, called the Episciences Project, hopes to show that researchers can organize the peer
review and publication of their work at minimal cost, without involving commercial publishers.

“It’s a global vision of how the research community should work: we want to offer an alternative to traditional mathematics journals,” says Jean-Pierre Demailly, a mathematician at the University of Grenoble, France, who is a leader in the effort. Backed by funding from the French government, the initiative may launch as early as April, he says.

Many mathematicians — and researchers in other fields — claim that they already do most of the work
involved in publishing their research. At no cost, they type up and format
their own papers, post them to online servers, join journal editorial boards
and review the work of their peers. By creating journals that publish links to
peer-reviewed work on servers such as arXiv, Demailly says, the community could
run its own publishing system. The extra expense involved would be the cost of
maintaining websites and computer equipment, he says.

That cost is not small, but it
could eventually be provided in part by the journals' users. The arXiv server,
for example, costs about US$826,000 a year to run, and is funded by the Cornell
University Library in Ithaca, New
York; the Simons Foundation in New York and institutional members.

Demailly says that he first thought of open-access electronic journals that overlay arXiv eight years ago, but the concept became a reality only last June, when he was contacted by the
Centre for Direct Scientific Communication (CCSD), based in Villeurbanne,
France. The CCSD, a unit of the French National Centre for Scientific Research,
develops open-access repositories such as the multidisciplinary archive HAL,
which mirrors the arXiv site.

For the Episciences Project, the CCSD plans to create a publishing platform that will support online
peer-reviewed journals. Each journal, or ‘epijournal’, would have its own
editor and editorial board, and authors could submit their arXiv-posted papers
to their journal of choice. The journal would then organize peer review,
perhaps using workflow software provided by the CCSD. Peer-reviewed papers
would be posted on arXiv alongside their un-reviewed versions. A central
committee (led by Demailly) would manage new journal candidates and make
recommendations on paper formatting, but each journal would be free to set its
own policies (including whether to charge for publication).

Gowers plans to start a journal in the interdisciplinary field of additive combinatorics; Demailly would not
say what other early epijournals might be. Gowers has strong views on shaking
up research publishing — last year, he kick-started
a boycott of the Dutch publishing giant Elsevier (see also Nature’s
profile of Gowers).

The idea of overlaying arXiv is
not new: some mathematics journals tried it in the early 2000s but scrapped the
idea because libraries began dropping print subscriptions, says Demailly.
Meanwhile, there are already some free, community-organized mathematics
journals, such as Documenta Mathematica, funded by the German Mathematical Society. “They are doing things on their own with a small website; we will have a global platform
capable of drastically reducing an individual journal’s administration costs,”
Demailly says.

Demailly says that he expects to adjust the concept with feedback from the mathematics community. “If people want larger reviews linked to papers, or the possibility of online comments and
blogs, we can offer this with only minor changes to the platform,” he says. At
the moment, the model's success or failure hinges on buy-in from mathematicians
— but the involvement of Gowers and other prominent mathematicians, such as
Terence Tao of the University of California, Los
  Angeles, may help to build support.

Journal name: Nature

DOI:doi:10.1038/nature.2013.12243

 

 

TED launches TED Conversations- in-depth group conversations

Social media platform fosters meaningful, in-depth group conversations; introduces time limit on conversations

NEW YORK, Feb. 16, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- TED, the nonprofit devoted to Ideas Worth Spreading, announces today the launch of TED Conversations, a new social media platform on TED.com that connects people for conversation, collaboration and debate.  The platform gives people access to engage notable TED speakers, and the broader TED community, in conversations that – for the first time on a social network – have a time limit.

TED Conversations was designed and built from the ground up to foster meaningful conversation among the global community – more than 15M monthly users – who visit TED.com and watch TEDTalks online.

The highlight features of TED Conversations include:

• Conversation categories – Questions, Debates and Ideas. By asking a question, you can tap into the expertise of the TED community. By proposing an idea, you can elicit constructive feedback. And by initiating a debate, you can lay out a key issue for spirited discussion.
• Conversations with TED notables – At launch, TED Conversations includes discussions with TED speakers such as behavioral economist Dan Ariely (Author, "Predictably Irrational"), entrepreneur and marketer Seth Godin (Author, "Permission Marketing", "Tribes"), game designer Jane McGonigal (author "Reality Is Broken"), Rhode Island School of Design President John Maeda (author, "The Laws of Simplicity") and many more.
• Time limits on conversations – Whether it's one day or one month, TED Conversations are assigned an expiration date to keep the discussion sharp and on-topic.  Designed to promote participation among time-pressed users, including TED speakers and conference attendees, the conversations will end on a pre-set date, at which time the user who initiated it can summarize the discussion with a closing statement.
• Link conversations to one of the 800+ TED Talks on TED.com – Users can ask a question, debate an issue or propose an idea that was sparked by watching one or more TED Talks. This allows a thoughtful exchange among a global community with a shared experience and knowledge base.
• Tagging by subject – To ease navigation, users can search for specific topics such as "architecture," "alternative medicine" or "clean energy."

 

The launch of TED Conversations marks a major step in TED.com's evolution as a social platform. Through the popularity of TEDTalk videos – which have surpassed 400 million views – TED.com has amassed a vast global audience of engaged, intellectually curious members who are eager to participate in meaningful conversation and action. TED Conversations aims to capture the passion of these visitors and get the entire community – speakers, fellows, translators and global audience members – talking, brainstorming and collaborating in real time.

"What's missing from social media today is a forum for in-depth conversation, particularly among a diverse, international audience," said June Cohen, Executive Producer of TED Media. "We've built technology from scratch that fosters collaboration, sparks spirited discussion and allows the global TED community to more easily share ideas. A TED Conversation is like a dinner party  – with a great group of diverse participants, provocative topics, and – importantly – a limited amount of time."

TED Conversations was made possible by support from TED partner GE, who provided underwriting as well as product inspiration. One new feature of TED Conversations is that it allows a partner to engage in a conversation directly with the TED community. At launch, GE will hold a conversation soliciting the TED community for insight on sustainable energy solutions, which will inform GE's Ecomagination Challenge.

"GE has been increasingly engaged in open platforms that drive conversations around big issues such as clean energy and affordable health. TED Conversations represents a place for authentic dialogue that engages multiple voices around innovation and the future," said Beth Comstock, Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer of GE. "As a company committed to innovation and technology, our mission aligns closely with TED's. Together, we're creating the kind of technologies that help further spread great ideas."

Later this spring, TED Conversations users will have the ability to start or participate in conversations in any language, track them over time with email notifications, and see what conversations their friends are participating in.

About TED

TED is a nonprofit organization devoted to Ideas Worth Spreading. Started as a four-day conference in California 26 years ago, TED has grown to support those world-changing ideas with multiple initiatives. At TED, the world's leading thinkers and doers are asked to give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes. Talks are then made available, free, at TED.com. TED speakers have included Bill Gates, Jane Goodall, Elizabeth Gilbert, Sir Richard Branson, Benoit Mandelbrot, Philippe Starck, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Isabel Allende and former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Two major TED events are held each year: The TED Conference takes place every spring in Long Beach, California (along with a parallel conference, TEDActive, in Palm Springs), and TEDGlobal is held each summer in Edinburgh, Scotland.

TED's media initiatives include TED.com, where new TEDTalks are posted daily; the new TED Conversations, enabling broad conversations among TED fans; and the Open Translation Project, which provides subtitles and interactive transcripts as well as the ability for any TEDTalk to be translated by volunteers worldwide.

TED has established the annual TED Prize, where exceptional individuals with a wish to change the world are given the opportunity to put their wishes into action; TEDx, which offers individuals or groups a way to host local, self-organized events around the world; and the TED Fellows program, helping world-changing innovators from around the globe to become part of the TED community and, with its help, amplify the impact of their remarkable projects and activities.

TED2011, "The Rediscovery of Wonder," will be held February 28-March 4, 2011, in Long Beach, California, along with the TEDActive simulcast in Palm Springs, California. TEDGlobal 2011, "The Stuff of Life," will be held July 11-15, 2011, in Edinburgh, Scotland.

Follow TED on Twitter at http://twitter.com/TEDTalks, or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/TED

Contact: Taryn Langer, Group SJR, tlanger@groupsjr.com, (646) 495-9721

 

SOURCE TED

Novel Qualitative/Quanitative Scenario Interviewing methodology for complex systems & risk illumination / mitigation developed by grad students at OCAD. Toronto

With all the attention on Goldman Sachs, greed, risk-shifting and deception, any new methods for risk illumination would benefit business, government and the consumer. 

A team of graduate students at OCAD MA Design program in Strategic Foresight and Innovation (SFI) in Toronto have developed a unique semi quantitative and qualitative scenario and interviewing methodology-which they trialed on the topic of Carbon Capture.  

But it can be applied equally well to other wicked, complex, risk-embedded issues and problems. It addresses stakeholder perceptions, real and perceived risks, liabilities and decision paradoxes and contradictions, better then any other method I’ve seen.

It seems that it might be useful as a decision-making aid and policy development tool in complex. multifactor scenarios where cross impact analysis is needed, and where the need to surface often dynamic and ever changing /evolving stakeholder situational mental models, emerging unintended consequences, conflicts, paradoxes, contradictions and anomalies that may be critical or significant  (ie Critical success factor) in the overall process.

Individual foresight methods don’t capture all this richness

 As they cite in their research report: “We’ve spent a fair amount of thought in separating out factors of biases towards and against other stakeholders in order to elicit the actual objective and subjective perceptions of each, and how those will come into game theoretic conflict…[…]… We used neuro-dynamic programming, also known as reinforcement learning.  This works by treating the domain as a partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP).

 As a next step, they  are now looking at incorporating the sense-making methodology and my database of social, behavioral and cognitive biases from the Opportunity Clinic into the process.

To date this is proprietary and unpublished work 

I think it’s ready to take public.

The students are trying to identify a private corporation or government agency or Ministry who would be interested in this as a pilot project to use this method in addressing some of their wicked problems.

Any leads, contacts or suggestions appreciated.

Walter Derzko, The Opportunity Clinic.Smart Economy,Toronto

Sr. Fellow S-Lab, OCAD, MA Design in Strategic Foresight & Innovation (OCAD) 

How to predict the future with over 90% accuracy? use Bayesian Game Theory

I've been compiling a list of qualitative and quantitative foresight (prediction) methods and the total has passed over 50.

New Scientist magazine this week reviews one quantitative method called Bayesian Game Theory, in surprisingly quite an understandable fashion, that even a lay person like me can understand...well maybe not all the math details but the overall workings are quite clear.

Ever wonder what methods the CIA uses to predict complex geopolitical events?

They turn to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a professor of politics at New York University, who back in 1979 developed a game theory based prediction model, which he calls predictioneering. He says" I can predict events and decisions that involve negotiations, coercion (lies, bluffing, reneging on promises), cooperation or bullying." The model predicts what people will do in "strategic  situations" where the outcome also depends on other people's decisions ie domestic politics, foreign policy, geopolitical conflicts, business decisions and social interactions.  

New Scientist writes: "

"Over the past 30 years, Bueno de Mesquita has made thousands of predictions about hundreds of issues from geopolitics to personal problems. Overall, he claims, his hit rate is about 90 per cent. So how does he do it?

Examples: Terrorism & Climate Change

Terrorism:

"Bueno de Mesquita recently used it to make a prediction on the political situation in Pakistan. Working with a group of students, he asked how willing the Pakistani government would be to pursue Al-Qaida and Taliban militants in its territory, and how the US government could exert influence on their decision."

In January 2008 the students fed in data on all the players, including the US, Pakistan's then president Pervez Musharraf and other leading Pakistani politicans. Their assumption was that the US would offer foreign aid to persuade Pakistan's leaders to target the terrorists, and Pakistan would try to extract the maximum amount of aid possible from the US.

The model predicted that to get maximum cooperation from Pakistan, the US would need to donate at least $1.5 billion in 2009, double the projected 2008 figure. In return for this Pakistan would pursue the terrorists on a scale of 80 out of 100, but no more. In other words, the leadership would make considerable effort to reduce the terrorist threat but not to completely eliminate it. "The Pakistani government are no fools," explains Bueno de Mesquita. "They know that the money will dry up if Al-Qaida and the Taliban are destroyed. So they will rein the threat in and reduce it, but not utterly destroy it."

The outcome? According to Bueno de Mesquita, the US government authorised $1.5 billion in foreign aid to Pakistan in 2009, and the Pakistani leadership sustained pursuit of the militants at that level. "We have done very well," says Bueno de Mesquita.

Climate Change:

So what of the future? Another of Bueno de Mesquita's recent predictions addresses the future of climate change negotiations up to 2050. Depressingly, he predicts that although the world will negotiate tougher greenhouse gas reductions than in the Kyoto protocol, in practise these are likely to be abandoned as Brazil, India and China rise in power in relation to the European Union and the US."

See: The Man who sees the Future, New Scientist Volume 250 No 2752 March 20,2010,  pg 42 

Walter Derzko

Small countries lead R&D international collaboration

Source:  http://www.info.scopus.com/researchtrends/cou_tre_14.html?utm_source=ESC001&utm_campaign=&utm_content=&utm_medium=email&bid=SDNR61F:32HN9O1 Recent research has shown that international research collaboration is growing rapidly (1). This is unsurprising given the fact that many of the most pressing challenges in science are global in nature (2). Think about climate change or the H1N1 flu virus: these clearly cross borders and demand a global response. Analyzing data on international collaborative article output by country reveals that smaller countries (Switzerland, Denmark, Belgium) proportionally carry out more international research than those in larger countries  (ie China, USA,  Japan, India, Korea)  etc. Canada is in the middle of the pack tied with Ukraine, Mexico, Czech Republic and the UK. (see Table below).   It may be coincidence but the current Economist magazine unemployent rates (low to high) mirror this list from top to bottom.--Walter Derzko Rank Country Collaboration   % 2007 1 Switzerland 55.9% 2 Chile 53.8% 3 Denmark 51.6% 4 Belgium 51.6% 5 Bulgaria 50.9% 6 Hong Kong 50.7% 7 Austria 50.0% 8 Sweden 48.0% 9 Norway 48.0% 10 Portugal 47.0% 11 Romania 46.7% 12 Slovakia 46.5% 13 New Zealand 46.2% 14 Ireland 45.9% 15 Hungary 45.7% 16 Netherlands 45.5% 17 Thailand 45.3% 18 France 43.8% 19 South Africa 43.6% 20 Finland 43.2% 21 Argentina 42.4% 22 Germany 41.9% 23 Canada 39.8% 24 Mexico 39.5% 25 Ukraine 39.5% 26 Czech Republic 39.3% 27 United Kingdom 39.0% 28 Australia 38.7% 29 Israel 38.4% 30 Singapore 38.4% 31 Slovenia 37.6% 32 Italy 36.4% 33 Malaysia 35.9% 34 Egypt 35.3% 35 Spain 34.9% 36 Greece 33.7% 37 Russian Federation 33.1% 38 Poland 31.3% 39 Pakistan 27.7% 40 Brazil 27.2% 41 Croatia 27.0% 42 USA 26.4% 43 Korea, Republic of 23.8% 44 Japan 21.0% 45 Iran, Islamic Republic of 20.3% 46 India 17.8% 47 Taiwan, Province of China 15.7% 48 Turkey 15.3% 49 China 13.4% Table 1 – Countries with an output of more than 5,000 articles in 2007 are ranked on their collaboration percentage. This percentage is calculated by counting the number of articles on which authors from more than one country have collaborated, divided by the total number of articles. Source: Scopus Useful links In Issue 11, Jamo Saarti at Kuopio University, Finland, also underlined the importance of international collaboration in research, especially with regard to improving institutional rankings.

Reference: (1) Leydesdorff, L. and Wagner, C.S. (2008) ‘International collaboration in science and the formation of a core group’, Informetrics, 2, pp. 317–325. (2) Rees, M. (October 30, 2008) ‘International collaboration is part of science’s DNA’, Nature, 456, p. 31. Walter Derzko       Author of the soon-to-be published book- Opportunity 45 Scenarios to Drive Your Business in Challenging Times, published by J. Wiley and Sons ISBN13: 978-0-470-73761-3 ISBN10: 0-470-73761-1

Bacterial decisions offer insights into human decision making

If only humans had as good threat sensing and "game theory decision making" mechanisms as bacteria--Walter Derzko 

Colonies of billions of Bacillus subtilis bacteria exhibit the complex structures that sometimes form under environmental stress.

Scientists studying how bacteria under stress collectively weigh and initiate different survival strategies say they have gained new insights into how humans make strategic decisions that affect their health, wealth and the fate of others in society. Their study, published this week in the early online edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, was accomplished when the scientists applied the mathematical techniques used in physics to describe the complex interplay of genes and proteins that colonies of bacteria rely upon to initiate different survival strategies during times of environmental stress. Using the mathematical tools of theoretical physics and chemistry to describe complex biological systems is becoming more commonplace in the emerging field of theoretical biological physics.

The authors of the new study are theoretical physicists and chemists at the University of California, San Diego's Center for Theoretical Biological Physics,and Tel Aviv University in Israel. They say that how genes are turned on and off in bacteria living under conditions of stress not only shed light on how complex biological systems interact, but provide insights for economists and political scientists applying mathematical models to describe complex human decision making.

"Everyone knows the need to try to postpone important decisions until the last moment but apparently there are simple creatures that do it well and therefore can really teach us — the bacteria," said Eshel Ben Jacob, a physics professor at Tel Aviv University and a fellow of the Center for Theoretical Biological Physics. He co-authored the study with three other scientists at the center: José Onuchic, a professor of physics at UC San Diego and a co-director of the center, Peter Wolynes, a professor of physics and chemistry at UC San Diego and Daniel Schultz, a postdoctoral researcher at UC San Diego.

BACKGROUND

In nature, bacteria live in large colonies whose numbers may reach up to 100 times the number of people on earth. Many bacteria respond to extreme stress — such as starvation, poisoning and irradiation — by creating spores, dormant states that are highly resistant to the outside environment and that can germinate into fully functioning bacteria once the environment improves. The response involves more than 500 genes and takes about 10 hours in Bacillus subtilis, the bacterium used by the scientists in their study.

Each bacterium in the colony communicates via chemical messages and performs a sophisticated decision making process using a specialized network of genes and proteins. Modeling this complex interplay of genes and proteins by the bacteria enabled the scientists to assess the pros and cons of different choices in game theory, a branch of mathematics that attempts to model decision making by humans, in which an individual's success in making choices depends on the choices of others.

When bacteria form spores, the mother cell dies, but not before it stores a copy of its DNA in a special capsule called the spore. The mother cell then breaks open and its DNA and remaining proteins are released to the environment. The bacteria on the road to spore formation don’t always form spores. They can change their fate and escape into a different state called "competence."

In this state, the bacteria change their membranes to allow the easy absorption of material from the dying cells. This allows for the creation of a "competence intermediate state," in which the bacteria hope to survive even under these unfriendly conditions. When normal conditions are restored, bacteria return to normal life without having to make a spore. The advantage of this situation is the ability of quickly returning to normality, but there is also a disadvantage: likely death if the conditions get even worse. As a result, each bacterium has a dilemma.

"It pays for the individual cell to take the risk and escape into competence only if it notices that the majority of the cells decide to sporulate," explained Onuchic. "But if this is the case, it should not take this chance because most of the other cells might reach the same conclusion and escape from sporulation. Observations have shown that indeed only about 10 percent of the bacteria enter into competence. But how they make this decision and which cells take this chance have been a mystery."

The researchers discovered in their study that the bacteria’s game theory decision making process is far more advanced than the well-known game theory problem known as the Prisoner's Dilemma.

Classic Prisoner's Dilemma, when applied to two prisoners, gives them the following offer: If only one prisoner pleads guilty, the one that cooperates gets two years in jail while the other one gets six years. If both of them admit guilt, then they will be imprisoned for four years. However, if none of them pleads guilty, they go free with no punishment. The temptation is not to admit anything, but the prisoners never know whether or not the other prisoner cooperated and pled guilty.

Because the number of participants in a bacterial colony can be up to 100 times the number of people on earth, the bacteria need to construct a more complex form of game theory. The rapidly changing environmental conditions they face means also bacteria have limited time to decide.

"Prisoner's Dilemma for bacteria is more complex," said Ben Jacob. "Each bacterium must decide whether to become a spore; that is, to cooperate, or escape into competence, or take advantage of the others, while it has a limited time to decide while a clock is ticking. We discovered that each cell has an internal timer whose pace changes according to the stress it experiences — the pace goes up for higher stress decisions such as in humans. Our internal clock speeds up under danger because of the secretion of adrenaline and therefore we have the sensation of time slowing down. In addition to internal stress, each bacterium adjusts the pace of its timer accordingly to the stress of its peers and their intention to sporulate or to go into competence."

According to Onuchic, bacteria usually do not cheat their friends and inform them by sending chemical messages about their true intensions.

"We have developed for the first time a system level model of a large gene network to decipher the underlying principles of the bacteria game theory and how an internal network of genes and proteins is used to calculate risks in this complicated situation," he said.

This has applications to human society because many people encounter similar dilemmas during their own lives. For example, should people ignore side effects and vaccinate against a new potentially lethal virus or should they not vaccinate and take the risk of being infected with the possible consequences? If the majority of the population is going to get vaccinated, then it is better for each individual not to get vaccinated. However, if most people will not be vaccinated then it is better to be vaccinated.

"What each bacterium is doing is the equivalent if each individual on earth was able receive the exact information about the rate of spread of this new virus, the exact information about the intensions, to be vaccinated or not, by each person on the planet, and in addition the exact information about the health risks of side effects or being infected,” said researchers. “A decision is then made in the context of this vast amount of information."

"We have shown how the bacteria do this complex calculation according to well-defined principles," added scientists "We learned a simple rule: Anyone who needs to make a decision under pressure in life, especially if it is a possible death decision, will take its time. She or he will review the trends of change, will render all possible chances and risks, and only then react."

"Another interesting fact is that the same cells in the same environment, in this case, bacteria in the colony, can actually in a statistical matter choose two different outcomes: sporulation or competence. This leads us to speculate whether similar ideas can be extrapolated to explain the decisions of cells to develop cancer: Can a similar cell in a tissue make the decision to duplicate normally or to modify into a cancer cell? How does this stochastic process affect life, biology, evolution and disease is an interesting challenge that will be at the center of questions answered at the interface of the physical and life sciences."

Source:  University of California press release

Walter Derzko

 

 

 

Author of the soon-to-be published book- Opportunity 45 Scenarios to Drive Your Business in Challenging Times,

published by J. Wiley and Sons

ISBN13: 978-0-470-73761-3

ISBN10: 0-470-73761-1

 

 

High population density triggers cultural explosions & innovations; Environment not Brains; Nature vs Nurture

Last year, I toured the Royal Ontario Museum exhibit in Toronto– Mysteries of Ancient Ukraine: The Remarkable Trypilian Culture (5400-2700 BC). What was even  more remarkable and mysterious  then the brilliant Trypilian cultural artifacts themselves, was the notion  of uniqueness--why this cultural innovation only existed in a tiny, small geographic area, on what is modern day Ukraine and not the rest of the globe-long before Egypt or Mexico or  Mesapotania?

 

No one seemed to have addressing this question in the exhibit nor is it covered in our modern day high school textbooks.

 

The Union Soviet (..read Russians)  had little to no motivation to promote these archeological discoveries to the rest of the world, which are as exciting as Egypt and which date back over 100 years to the late 1800's,  because of a cultural & political bias and propaganda perspective. Ukraine was considered by Russia's propaganda machine, as a "younger brother" to "mother Russia", and not the older, wiser culture. Seven centuries ago Russia was nothing more then barren,uninhabited swamp land. This is why the West is  only hearing about the Trypilian culture now, after the brakeup /collapse  of the Soviet Union.

 

Trypilion culture even pre-dates Egypt, the pyramids and the Inca's.

 

So I have to ask myself--Were Trypilians smarter then anyone else on the planet  those 7 centuries ago?  Was Tryplia the Silicon Valley of its time? I don't think so. I don't see any cognitive evidence to this affect.

 

Coincidently though , Trypillian culture also designed and built  the first large scale  cities in neolithic Europe, ranging in size up to 20,000 inhabitants. But, just as mysteriously 4.5 centuries ago, they disappeared from the face of the earth without a trace.

 

Researchers from University College London now seem to offer a partial explanation to address my curiosity.....high population density triggers cultural explosions & as well as reversals. So was Ukraine at the cross-roads of many neolithic cultures coming out of Africa and criss-crossing between Asia and Europe? The neolythic silks roads?

 

Increasing population density, rather than boosts in human brain power, appears to have catalyzed the emergence of modern human behaviour, according to a new study by UCL (University College London) scientists published in the journal Science. High population density leads to greater exchange of ideas and skills and prevents the loss of new innovations. It is this skill maintenance, combined with a greater probability of useful innovations, that led to modern human behaviour appearing at different times in different parts of the world. 

 

In the study, the UCL team found that complex skills learnt across generations can only be maintained when there is a critical level of interaction between people. Using computer simulations of social learning, they showed that high and low-skilled groups could coexist over long periods of time and that the degree of skill they maintained depended on local population density or the degree of migration between them. Using genetic estimates of population size in the past, the team went on to show that density was similar in sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and the Middle-East when modern behaviour first appeared in each of these regions. The paper also points to evidence that population density would have dropped for climatic reasons at the time when modern human behaviour temporarily disappeared in sub-Saharan Africa.

Adam Powell, AHRC Centre for the Evolution of Cultural Diversity, says: "Our paper proposes a new model for why modern human behaviour started at different times in different regions of the world, why it disappeared in some places before coming back, and why in all cases it occurred more than 100,000 years after modern humans first appeared.

"By modern human behaviour, we mean a radical jump in technological and cultural complexity, which makes our species unique. This includes symbolic behavior, such as abstract and realistic art, and body decoration using threaded shell beads, ochre or tattoo kits; musical instruments; bone, antler and ivory artefacts; stone blades; and more sophisticated hunting and trapping technology, like bows, boomerangs and nets.

Professor Stephen Shennan, UCL Institute of Archaeology, says: "Modern humans have been around for at least 160,000 to 200,000 years but there is no archaeological evidence of any technology beyond basic stone tools until around 90,000 years ago. In Europe and western Asia this advanced technology and behaviour explodes around 45,000 years ago when humans arrive there, but doesn't appear in eastern and southern Asia and Australia until much later, despite a human presence. In sub-Saharan Africa the situation is more complex. Many of the features of modern human behaviour – including the first abstract art – are found some 90,000 years ago but then seem to disappear around 65,000 years ago, before re-emerging some 40,000 years ago.

Dr Mark Thomas, UCL Genetics, Evolution and Environment, says: "When we think of how we came to be the sophisticated creatures we are, we often imagine some sudden critical change, a bit like when the black monolith appears in the film 2001: A Space Odyssey. In reality, there is no evidence of a big change in our biological makeup when we started behaving in an intelligent way. Our model can explain this even if our mental capacities are the same today as they were when we first originated as a species some 200,000 years ago.

"Ironically, our finding that successful innovation depends less on how smart you are than how connected you are seems as relevant today as it was 90,000 years ago."

Full story here>>[...]

.....So was it climate change that killed off the Trypilians or did they integrate into another neolithic culture in Europe?

Walter Derzko,

Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The recession is a perfect time to  launch a new business or new product, especially what I call Category Killer Innovation, or what Clayton Christenson calls a "Disruptive Technology." The Category Killer Opportunity window is not a single opportunity space or event but a cluster of smaller fortuitous opportunities that bundle together (such as the design enhancement opportunity, a production challenge opportunity, the value chain opportunity, the supply chain challenge opportunity window and many others) to form a "super opportunity space" or in this case a Category Killer Innovation Opportunity Window. If history is any indication, we will see a flood of distruptive technology hitting the market between now and 2014.

A good example is the Starbury sneaker, who went up against the big boys-NIKE, Adidas, Puma and New Balance to produce a $14.95 runner that is as good as the $149-$300 equivalent basketball shoe, but at an order of magnitude price drop. It will be interesting to see how low cost Starbury Sneakers fare against NIKE in a recession

According to Wikipedia:

"Starbury, Inc. is an American brand of sneakers and clothing endorsed by NBA players Stephon Marbury and Ben Wallace, and marketed by Steve and Barry's. The line was launched in September 2006, as a pair of $14.99 basketball shoes to compete with higher priced products endorsed by celebrity athletes. Stephon Marbury and retail clothing chain Steve & Barry's claim that the products are of the same level of quality as more expensive alternatives."

Now India is about to unveil tomorrow a prototype of a $10 laptop (which actually costs $20 to produce.) It will be subsidized by the Indian Education Ministry, so that eventually every school child in India will be able to afford a laptop and access to the Internet. This is a counter-offer to the MIT Negroponte project which was proposing a $100 laptop per child for India, but the Indian government thought that they could do one better. The $10 laptop will come with WiFi, 2GB of memory, Ethernet and expandable memory capability and consumer just 2 watts of power. There are still many unanswered questions, such as can they find the supply chain to manufacture the laptop at that low cost and many others. How will they protect themselves from reverse engineering and IP theft and the grey market?

But it proves the point that every incumbent CEO, Manager and entrepreneur should be always looking behind their back for the next Category Killer Innovation to sneak up on them

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Other Opportunity Clinic posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

Realted posts over that past year:

·         Opportunity Recognition in Difficult Times

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn – June 25, 2008, Ontario College of Art Design, Toronto, ON

·         Recession-Proofing your Business-Strategies and Tactics for smoother sailing in turbulent seas

·         Master Class in Opportunity Recognition for entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs> May 30th 2008> University of Toronto

·         Turning Misery into Opportunity

·         Vacuum leaves pullout opportunities;

·         How will baby boomers handle the recession? Zoomers, Doomers, Gloomers, Opportuneurs

·         Recession, Depression and Shortages as Opportunities

·         Restructuring of American Business-A New Business Model?

·         Using New Yorker Cartoons for Opportunity Recognition /Sense-making & Pattern Recognition

·         Text Mining for S&T Scouting, Foresight and Opportunity Recognition

·         The Opportunity Clinic-swapping opportunity scenarios 08-002

Walter Derzko

 

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

Mention the word design and what do you think of? Most people associate it with product design-creating functional differentiation through novel features, effectiveness through ergonomic principles, superior performance, convenience,etc. Think Apple iPod, iPhone or the Dyson vacuum cleaner.

In difficult economic times people turn back to nostalgia and comfort foods. I saw the following advertisement in the subway last night.

 

“Eating Kraft Peanut Butter makes you feel great but you can’t narrow it down to just one feeling,” said Jordan Fietje, senior product manager, marketing, for Kraft Canada. “We are reminding our consumers of all the good feelings you get when you have peanut butter.” ....A heart, happy face, peace sign and sunshine are among the 10 symbols used throughout the campaign.

Design is increasingly being acknowledged as an important strategic tool in creating preference and deeper emotional value for the consumer. Different design elements may be used strategically to create two very different outcomes or value chains from a consumer’s perspective. Certain design elements are more likely to create functional product differentiation and transactional consumer outcomes, while other design strategies tap into a more emotional form of value creation. An emotional focus in value creation is more likely to create desired and powerful outcomes such as loyalty, joy of use, delight and even passion. Given current business trends towards relationship-based customer management, this emphasis on emotional value creation through product design is becoming particularly relevant and a growing opportunity window. Entrepreneurs need to consider product design strategies that can use to enhance the transactional as well as relational values in their customer relationships...so you can design nostalgia or hope into a product. Wonder if Olbama is listening?

From the Opportunity Clinic ™ ©  1981-2009

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Realted posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

 

Related Posts over that past year:

·         Opportunity Recognition in Difficult Times

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn – June 25, 2008, Ontario College of Art Design, Toronto, ON

·         Recession-Proofing your Business-Strategies and Tactics for smoother sailing in turbulent seas

·         Master Class in Opportunity Recognition for entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs> May 30th 2008> University of Toronto

·         Turning Misery into Opportunity

·         Vacuum leaves pullout opportunities;

·         How will baby boomers handle the recession? Zoomers, Doomers, Gloomers, Opportuneurs

·         Recession, Depression and Shortages as Opportunities

·         Restructuring of American Business-A New Business Model?

·         Using New Yorker Cartoons for Opportunity Recognition /Sense-making & Pattern Recognition

·         Text Mining for S&T Scouting, Foresight and Opportunity Recognition

·         The Opportunity Clinic-swapping opportunity scenarios 08-002

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

  There’s an old saying…”the best time to start a new business is the day after the recession ends.” The $64K  question is not when will the recession end but what will the recovery look like? Will it be V-shaped, U-shaped, W-shaped, v-W-shaped,  J-shaped, L-shaped or extended L-shaped? Which of these seven scenarios will play out?  UPDATE: see cartoon on the right from March 2009

To anticipate this, we have to look at what tools do managers and entrepreneurs have to help them predict, track and measure where they and the economy are heading?

 

I dusted off some old notes, slides  and workshop handout materials from just after post 9/11 as the economy topped out and in hindsight, was headed into a recession, triggered by the terrorist attacks on New York city and Washington. The materials were from a set of  experimental workshops that I designed for Andrew Maxwell, who at the time was at the incubator / accelerator at  the Innovations Foundation at the University of Toronto, when they were still located on 243 College Street, before moving into the new MaRS facility.

One workshop was on Designing Winning Business Models and the second was called 12 Tools and Techniques for Surviving Thriving and Managing in a Volatile and Turbulent Business Climate.

Could some of these same  principles and lessons learned from these workshops apply to today’s recessionary / depressionary climate? Most certainly!!

 

Designing a robust and adaptive business model could determine if you dive, merely survive or thrive in a recession.

Some of the key points and questions from the Designing Winning Business Models workshop include the following points:

• What were/are  the traditional business models/ revenue models in my industry and what can I learn from them?

• What are the prevailing business models/ revenue models in my industry today?

• What can I learn from mapping my current business landscape?

• What’s my current business model look like and what are all the components?

• What are the assumptions (tacit and explicit) behind my current business model and are they still valid? robust under changing conditions? various recovery scenarios ?  (V-shaped, U-shaped, W-shaped, v-W-shaped,  J-shaped, L-shaped or extended L-shaped? )

• What are the changing consumer or business values, attitudes and behaviors and are they reflected or aligned with my current business model

• What changes, trends, driving factors and issues are forcing me to rethink my current business model?

• How do I surface assumptions about the current and near-future business climate?

• What’s broken in my existing business model and how do I mitigate the faults and defects?

• How do I design a new viable system using scenario planning, systems dynamics and viable systems modeling?

• How do I model potential major discontinuities, wild cards, disruptions into my revenue model and business model?

• What were the lessons learned from the dot.com bubble, e-commerce failures and the collapse of the “green tech” and alternative energy markets? How do I mitigate that in the future from new emerging technologies.

• What cognitive thinking skills do I need to deploy to come up with novel and difficult to copy concepts for a brilliant new business model?

Tomorrow we’ll look at the 12 predictive  tools that should be in your managerial or entrepreneurial toolkit to help you predict and design opportunity windows for both the downward leg of the recession and the upward leg of the recovery.

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

 

Related posts:

 

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

When will this recession end?

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

 

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

 

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

 

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page