Smart Economy

Watching atoms in actions Part 1 Atomic-level snapshot catches protein motor in action

Atomic-level snapshot catches protein motor in action

The atomic-level action of a remarkable class of ring-shaped protein motors has been uncovered by researchers with the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory using a state-of-the-art protein crystallography beamline at the Advanced Light Source. These protein motors play pivotal roles in gene expression and replication, and are vital to the survival of all biological cells, as well as infectious agents, such as the human papillomavirus, which has been linked to cervical cancer.

http://newscenter.lbl.gov/feature-stories/2009/11/19/rho-protein-motor/

 

Walter  Derzko

Exploring the impact of imaging technology on reality

 

Imaging is the use of machines to enhance humans' ability to perceive things, often by producing visible phenomena that cannot be seen with the naked eye. But, can imaging technology distort reality and even change what humans perceive to be real?

A team of scholars led by two philosophers at Rochester Institute of Technology in the USA is exploring how the use of imaging technologies is changing our perception of reality and evaluating the overall impact this may have on what counts as legitimate knowledge and meaningful experience. The research will ultimately lead to a greater understanding of how imaging, and technology in general, is changing how we relate to each other and our surroundings.

"Now more than ever, sight and perception are shaped by the technology we use, from X-rays and MRIs of the body to the Facebook photos of friends we only know online," notes Timothy Engström, professor of philosophy at RIT and one of the leaders of the project. "In an imaging-saturated environment, sight is not about how the eye records the real, but about how imaging machines interpret and make the real available for certain kinds of use."

"The more sophisticated the technology, the greater the interpretation," adds Evan Selinger, co-author with Engström and associate professor of philosophy at RIT. "The question then arises who is doing the interpreting, the viewer or the technician running the machine? And if the visual record, which is central to our society, is just an interpretation, would other interpretations or other produced images provide a different reality?"

Engström's and Selinger's work in the field initially led them to organize an international conference on contemporary theories and practices of imaging. The symposium brought in leading scholars in science, philosophy, art and aesthetics, engineering, and ethics to discuss imaging technology's effect on a variety of fields, as well as on society more generally.

"It also attempted to illustrate how imaging technologies can modify traditional habits of sight and induce forms of engagement whose consequences are far from obvious or neutral," notes Engström.

The team followed the conference with the book Rethinking Theories and Practices of Imaging, published this fall by Palgrave MacMillan. Co-edited by Engström and Selinger, the work seeks to expand understanding of the key ethical, epistemological and political impacts of the growing use of imaging in society and how this is impacting art, public policy, the representation of knowledge and human identity. The book is one of the first to focus on societal effects of imaging technology, and the team hopes to utilize it to also broaden understanding of how we interact with technology more generally.

"With the development of new imaging technologies come new forms of reality, and with them new interpretative challenges for thinking about and managing their effects," says Engström. "Through our efforts we hope to better and more critically understand the ways different imaging practices interpret and even invent what's real and, in turn, transform our interactions with each other."

Source: Rochester Institute of Technology

 

Walter Derzko

Scientists use novel imaging mass spectrometry to visualize how bacteria communicate with one another

Great scientific discoveries are often preceded by spectacular advances in instrumentation. Just think back to the telescope, the x-ray or the electron microscope

 

Now, using imaging mass spectrometry, researchers at the University of California, San Diego have developed tools that will enable scientists to visualize how different populations of cells communicate. Their study shows how bacteria talk to one another - an understanding that may lead to new therapeutic discoveries for diseases ranging from cancer to diabetes and allergies.

 

In the paper published in the November 8 issue of Nature Chemical Biology, Pieter C. Dorrestein, PhD, assistant professor at UC San Diego's Skaggs School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, and colleagues describe an approach they developed to describe how bacteria interface with other bacteria in a laboratory setting. Dorrestein and post-doctoral students Yu-Liang Yang and Yuquan Xu, along with Paul Straight from Texas A&M University, utilized technology called natural product MALDI-TOF (Matrix Assisted Laser Desorption Ionization-Time of Flight) imaging mass spectrometry to uniquely translate the language of bacteria.

 

Microbial interactions, such as signaling, have generally been considered by scientists in terms of an individual, predominant chemical activity. However, a single bacterial species is capable of producing many bioactive compounds that can alter neighboring organisms. The approach developed by the UCSD research team enabled them to observe the effects of multiple microbial signals in an interspecies interaction, revealing that chemical "conversations" between bacteria involve many signals that function simultaneously.

 

"Scientists tend to study the metabolic exchange of bacteria, for example penicillin, one molecule at a time," said Dorrestein. "Actually, such exchanges by microbes are much more complex, involving 10, 20 or even 50 molecules at one time. Now scientists can capture that complexity."

 

The researchers anticipate that this tool will enable development of a bacterial dictionary that translates the output signals. "Our ability to translate the metabolic output of microbes is becoming more important, as they outnumber other cells in our body by a 10 to one margin," Dorrestein explain. "We want to begin to understand how those bacteria interact with our cells. This is a powerful tool that may ultimately aid in understanding these interactions."

In order to communicate, bacteria secrete molecules that tell other microbes, in effect, "I am irritated, stop growing," "I need more nutrients" or "come closer, I can supply you with nutrients." Other molecules are secreted that may turn off the body's defense mechanisms. The team is currently mapping hundreds of such bacterial interactions. Their hope is that this approach will also enable them to translate these bacterial-mediated mechanisms in the future.

Understanding the means by which microorganism cells talk to one another will facilitate therapeutic discovery, according to Dorrestein. For instance, knowing how microbes interact with human immune cells could lead to discovery of novel immune system modulators, and how these molecules control bacterial growth may lead to new anti-invectives. Both are active areas of investigation in his laboratory.

 

 

Source: University of California - San Diego

 

Walter Derzko

Live recordings of cell to cell communication

Look at any science discovery/ breakthrough and behind it you will usually find a previous breakthrough in instrumentation or visualization.

 

A new advanced method developed at the

University

of

Copenhagen

for nano-scale imaging of vesicle-fusion – vesicles that are biological nano-sized containers inside cells - could add to our understanding of diseases of the nervous system and viral infections. In the long term, this could be useful in developing a cure for neurological diseases and mental disorders (e.g. schizophrenia, depression, Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease).

 

Neurons communicate with each other with the help of nano-sized vesicles. Disruption of this communication process is responsible for many diseases and mental disorders like e.g. depression. Nerve signals travel from one neuron to another through vesicles - a nano-sized container loaded with neurotransmitter molecules. A vesicle fuses with the membrane surrounding a neuron, releases neurotransmitters into the surroundings that are detected by the next neuron in line. However, we still lack a more detailed understanding of how the fusion of vesicles occurs on the nano-scale. We just don't know what happens in the exact pathway(s)...which this method could unravel

 

see story here Live recordings of cell communication

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

High population density triggers cultural explosions & innovations; Environment not Brains; Nature vs Nurture

Last year, I toured the Royal Ontario Museum exhibit in Toronto– Mysteries of Ancient Ukraine: The Remarkable Trypilian Culture (5400-2700 BC). What was even  more remarkable and mysterious  then the brilliant Trypilian cultural artifacts themselves, was the notion  of uniqueness--why this cultural innovation only existed in a tiny, small geographic area, on what is modern day Ukraine and not the rest of the globe-long before Egypt or Mexico or  Mesapotania?

 

No one seemed to have addressing this question in the exhibit nor is it covered in our modern day high school textbooks.

 

The Union Soviet (..read Russians)  had little to no motivation to promote these archeological discoveries to the rest of the world, which are as exciting as Egypt and which date back over 100 years to the late 1800's,  because of a cultural & political bias and propaganda perspective. Ukraine was considered by Russia's propaganda machine, as a "younger brother" to "mother Russia", and not the older, wiser culture. Seven centuries ago Russia was nothing more then barren,uninhabited swamp land. This is why the West is  only hearing about the Trypilian culture now, after the brakeup /collapse  of the Soviet Union.

 

Trypilion culture even pre-dates Egypt, the pyramids and the Inca's.

 

So I have to ask myself--Were Trypilians smarter then anyone else on the planet  those 7 centuries ago?  Was Tryplia the Silicon Valley of its time? I don't think so. I don't see any cognitive evidence to this affect.

 

Coincidently though , Trypillian culture also designed and built  the first large scale  cities in neolithic Europe, ranging in size up to 20,000 inhabitants. But, just as mysteriously 4.5 centuries ago, they disappeared from the face of the earth without a trace.

 

Researchers from University College London now seem to offer a partial explanation to address my curiosity.....high population density triggers cultural explosions & as well as reversals. So was Ukraine at the cross-roads of many neolithic cultures coming out of Africa and criss-crossing between Asia and Europe? The neolythic silks roads?

 

Increasing population density, rather than boosts in human brain power, appears to have catalyzed the emergence of modern human behaviour, according to a new study by UCL (University College London) scientists published in the journal Science. High population density leads to greater exchange of ideas and skills and prevents the loss of new innovations. It is this skill maintenance, combined with a greater probability of useful innovations, that led to modern human behaviour appearing at different times in different parts of the world. 

 

In the study, the UCL team found that complex skills learnt across generations can only be maintained when there is a critical level of interaction between people. Using computer simulations of social learning, they showed that high and low-skilled groups could coexist over long periods of time and that the degree of skill they maintained depended on local population density or the degree of migration between them. Using genetic estimates of population size in the past, the team went on to show that density was similar in sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and the Middle-East when modern behaviour first appeared in each of these regions. The paper also points to evidence that population density would have dropped for climatic reasons at the time when modern human behaviour temporarily disappeared in sub-Saharan Africa.

Adam Powell, AHRC Centre for the Evolution of Cultural Diversity, says: "Our paper proposes a new model for why modern human behaviour started at different times in different regions of the world, why it disappeared in some places before coming back, and why in all cases it occurred more than 100,000 years after modern humans first appeared.

"By modern human behaviour, we mean a radical jump in technological and cultural complexity, which makes our species unique. This includes symbolic behavior, such as abstract and realistic art, and body decoration using threaded shell beads, ochre or tattoo kits; musical instruments; bone, antler and ivory artefacts; stone blades; and more sophisticated hunting and trapping technology, like bows, boomerangs and nets.

Professor Stephen Shennan, UCL Institute of Archaeology, says: "Modern humans have been around for at least 160,000 to 200,000 years but there is no archaeological evidence of any technology beyond basic stone tools until around 90,000 years ago. In Europe and western Asia this advanced technology and behaviour explodes around 45,000 years ago when humans arrive there, but doesn't appear in eastern and southern Asia and Australia until much later, despite a human presence. In sub-Saharan Africa the situation is more complex. Many of the features of modern human behaviour – including the first abstract art – are found some 90,000 years ago but then seem to disappear around 65,000 years ago, before re-emerging some 40,000 years ago.

Dr Mark Thomas, UCL Genetics, Evolution and Environment, says: "When we think of how we came to be the sophisticated creatures we are, we often imagine some sudden critical change, a bit like when the black monolith appears in the film 2001: A Space Odyssey. In reality, there is no evidence of a big change in our biological makeup when we started behaving in an intelligent way. Our model can explain this even if our mental capacities are the same today as they were when we first originated as a species some 200,000 years ago.

"Ironically, our finding that successful innovation depends less on how smart you are than how connected you are seems as relevant today as it was 90,000 years ago."

Full story here>>[...]

.....So was it climate change that killed off the Trypilians or did they integrate into another neolithic culture in Europe?

Walter Derzko,

Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

When will the recession end? Part 27 The Sun could create a double dip depression

New Solar Cycle 24 Prediction: Fewer Sunspots, But Severe Mass Coronal Ejection (MCE) Activity possible.

 

In the past, human populations have survived 7 climate change-related mass extinction events...James Lovelock reminds us...but are we more vulnerable now and less resilient as a society?

 

Now privately, some scientists are quietly predicting two imminant wild card possibilities-a mini ice age, that could punctuate global warming,  if sun spots do not pick up in the next solar spot cycle and the distinct possibility of severe solar storms. At the extreme, both events could cause billions of deaths in a worst case scenario that we looked at last month.

 

Publically, an  international panel of experts has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle, stating that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013with a below-average number of sunspots. Led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and sponsored by NASA, the panel includes a dozen members from nine different government and academic institutions. Their forecast sets the stage for at least another year of mostly quiet conditions before solar activity resumes in earnest [..they hope].

 

 

This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle (Solar Cycle 23) in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle (24) in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center.

 

"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Prediction Center, Boulder, Colo.

 It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression. "Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather,"says Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

The 1859 storm -- named the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare -- electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society’s high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused $80 to 125 billion in damage.

 

 

The latest forecast revises a prediction issued in 2007, when a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 and would be followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models of the solar cycle produced different forecasts, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.

"It turns out that none of the models were really correct,"says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. NASA’s lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

Yearly-averaged sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2000. Researchers believe upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will be similar to the cycle that peaked in 1928, marked in red. Credit: NASA/MSFC

Astronomers first noted the solar cycle in the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. Predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome because cycles vary in length from 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch much longer. In the 17th century, the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotless quiet known as the Maunder Minimum (mini ice age) that still baffles scientists.

At a recent climate change symposium at Monash University in Australia, David Archibald, an expert in solar cycles stated:

“You haven’t seen any sign of the end of Solar Cycle 23 yet and the cooling over Solar
Cycle 24 as a consequence may be as much as 2.8 degrees centigrade. We are due for a de Vries cycle cooling event every two hundred and ten years, and actually even a Bond event because the last one of those was in the Dark Ages. And severe cooling over the next twenty years is now a certainty.” 

Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspotcounts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.

"In our professional careers, we’ve never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond what we predicted in 2007."

 

 

In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel’s new, almost unanimous forecast.

 

 

According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that’s good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth’s poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.

 

Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.

"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."

Source: Marshall Space Flight Center

Walter Derzko

World's most powerful, highest-resolution, commercial satellite: GeoEye-1

World's most powerful, highest-resolution, commercial satellite- GeoEye-1

Since the early 1960s, super powerful spy satellites have been the stuff of the military and intelligence communities. Now two U.S. companies have launched commercial imaging satellites that offer the same sort of space-based images of the Earth to the public. One of these companies, GeoEye of Dulles, Va., launched a multi-million dollar satellite last year, and it's the highest-resolution commercial imaging satellite in the world.

From its vantage point of 425 miles in space, the 4,300-pound GeoEye-1 satellite orbits the Earth and focuses its powerful lens on the surface below, snapping electronic images that can resolve objects on the ground as small as 41 cm across (16 inches). That's approximately the size of home plate on a baseball diamond. These images are typically processed and sold to the military for mapping and to companies like Google, which makes them available to the public through its platform Google Earth. (Because of federal regulations, the publicly-available images are slightly lower resolution -- approximately 50 cm).

In Baltimore at next week's CLEO/IQEC, GeoEye's Systems Engineering Director Michael Madden will describe some of the satellite's key features, such as the fact that it's the first commercial satellite with military-grade star trackers, which along with GPS makes the imagery from the satellite very accurate -- an important aspect for making precise maps. He will also preview the satellite GeoEye-2, which is expected to be launched around 2012 and would have a ground resolution twice as fine as GeoEye-1.

These powerful public eyes in the sky have already had an impact. Madden says for instance, a researcher at the University of California, San Diego is using satellite imagery to search for the tomb of Genghis Khan in Mongolia. A few months ago, one of the enduring photos taken during U.S. President Barack Obama's inauguration was the image captured by GeoEye-1 of the National Mall in Washington, D.C., which showed throngs of people crowded together. In March 2009, the GeoEye-1 satellite captured a close-up image of a North Korean missile sitting on the launch pad just 25 minutes before launch. GeoEye-1 also provided a look at the annual Cherry Blossom Festival held in Washington, D.C.

From the space photo, details were clear enough to resolve individual trees, ripples on the Potomac River, and people and cars crowded along the Tidal Basin, the area in downtown Washington, D.C.where the festival takes place.

Source: 2009 Conference on Lasers and Electro-Optics/International Quantum Electronics Conference (CLEO/IQEC) May 31 to June 5 at the BaltimoreConvention Center in Baltimore. Presentation PWB4; Wednesday, June 3, 6:15 – 6:45 p.m.

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto.

The first 3D football match in European football history

• On 24 April 2009, Orange will air an experimental broadcast of the first ever football match in 3D when OL (Olympique Lyonnais) meets PSG (Paris Saint-Germain)

• This Ligue 1 (French Premiere League) championship game will be broadcast live on 3D screens in Parc des Princes and Gerland stadium for supporters and football fans invited by Orange and the two clubs

• This European First showcases the Group's ability to innovate, particularly in the presentation and broadcasting of premium content

On Friday 24 April at 8:30 p.m. Orange will offer a live broadcast in 3D of the Ligue 1 match between OL and PSG. Dedicated areas will be set aside at Parc de Princes and Gerland stadium to allow supporters and invited fans to live all the thrills of this match and this exceptional experience on a 3D screen, using glasses.

For the first time in Europe, Orangewill deploy special equipment to produce a football match live and in 3D, including six stereoscopic cameras, a standalone production bus, and specialised 3D teams. This operation will be run in conjunction with the professional football league LFP and HBS, executive producer of the French Ligue 1.

First trialled by Orange in 2008 at the Roland Garros International Tennis Open, 3D broadcasting provides gripping involvement and incomparable emotion compared to normal TV.

The OL-PSG match will also be broadcast in high definition for Orange sport channel subscribers both on Orange TV ( Orange sport: channel 20)  and on orange.fr.

 

Full press release here>>>

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

When will the recession / depression end? Part 22 Why we are likely to see a protracted L-shaped or double dip W-Shaped Recession?

Collapsed container traffic  and falling electricity demand

 

 

GDP growth or collapse is a poor early warning indicator for the economy. Figures are historic -they are released several months (usually 3 months) after the fact and the are then usually revised. As politicians are fond of saying, we've seen a global symmetric  (I'd argue.. asymmetric) collapse in GDP.

 

Here are the recently released GDP numbers for the 4th quarter of 2008.

 

Canada (-3.4%)

The EU (-5.9%)

The USA (-6.2%)

Japan (-12.7%)

 

Everyone is expecting even worse numbers in Q1 2009.

 

One proxy indicator that I follow is global trade. Back in 2006 and 2007 I was  looking for early signals/signs of impending collapse and now I’m tracking trade to determine if the economy will be in a protracted holding pattern (like the lost decade in the 1990’s in Japan, although it should be called the lost 2 decades) or will we see some resemblence of any recovery of international trade any time soon?

 

Bulk goods and container traffic is a good leading 6 month proxy for the economy. Manufacturers order raw materials in anticipation of manufacturing growth. In America, the container traffic in Long Beach California (the busiest port in the USA)  totally collapsed in 2007, long before there were any signs that the economy had peaked. Container traffic, dry and wet bulk goods traffic and shipping rates have been down and flat ever since-at historic low levels. If you use these indicators, there is ABSOLUTELY NO RECOVERY  in sight for 2009. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is showing some signs of life, but it's a type #1 error, also known in academics as a false positive. Suppliers are using some creaive accounting by attempting to take their goods "off their books" shifting them into the F.O.B catagory, but these raw materials, assembled cars and even oil supplies are just sitting inside container ships in ports, awaiting for commodity prices to increase. (hat tip to Zavis Zeman for alerting us to this tactic)

Power consumption is another good indicator to watch that signals the health of the economy. (the same is equally true for industrial use of coal, gas and oil, if you can find the data.)

 

Historically, electricity consumption and GDP growth are closely coupled, although there is still debate in the academic literature on what causes what. Does electricity use drive GDP growth or the other way around.Energy conservation efforts are starting to confound the data too.  When I can find it, I use monthly and annual power consumption data as a proxy indicator for economic recovery. The logic is simple. If you are not running a second or third shift, or if you have closed down your factory, then energy use will drop long before we see any GDP changes in government statistics. Likewise, on the way up, energy consumption should be flat and then start to slowly rise before we see any effects in GDP numbers.

China and India have become the world's manufacturers, so their health is a proxy indicator for global economic health. Both China and Indiahave reported drastic energy consumption drops in their industrial sectors. Starting in late 2007 and right through 2008,

China reported a drop in consumption, although relative year-over-year, power consumption was positive, still growing but at a much slower decelerated pace. As the global financial crisis began to take a toll on the real economy, power demand plummeted in China, as enterprises shut down or cut back working hours in response to moribund business orders.

"Power consumption in China grew 5.23 percent in 2008, 9.57 percentage points lower than a year ago and the slowest in eight years, according to Chinese data. The slowing demand was mainly contributed by the industrial sector.  About 3.43 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity was used by the industry last year, up 3.83 percent from a year earlier, slower than the overall social power consumption growth rate for the first time.  Electricity used by the service industry and the rural and urban residents continued rapid growth, as the group was less affected by the financial crisis."

In India, power consumption grew 13.28 % in 2007 (a combination of industrial use, consumer household use, and village electrification) and dropped off the cliff by 16.91 percent in 2008, worse then in China.

 

Walter Derzko

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related Recession / Depression Posts

When will the recession / depression end? Part 21 Darker days ahead , but not for all

When will the recession / depression end? Part 20 The Dog that Didn't Bark; Economists say don't pay attention to us

When will the recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

When will the recession/ depression end? Part 18 Hormones and Boom and Bust Cycles

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 17 Recap from the World Economic Forum in Davos

When will the recession end? Part 16 It's all over, well sort of.

When will the recession end? Part 15 Year-end predictions for 2009 starting to come true

When will the recession end? Part 14 Four options for America's race to the bottom

When will the recession end? Part 13 Thirteen economic questions that economists can't answer

When will the recession end? Part 12 Bad times are good times for startups

When will the recession end? Part 11 Bank of Canada optimism

When will the recession end? Part 10, The Conformity Trap or Don't count on your economist for advise

When will the recession end? Part 9 Humor will signal recession /depression bottom

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will this recession end?

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

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When will the recession / depression end? Part 20 The Dog that Didn't Bark; Economists say don't pay attention to us

Why should we be listening to economists, when so few of them saw this whole mess coming? The Canadian CBC TV Sunday Morning program put that question to two top economists - Dean Baker, of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, and James K. Galbraith of the University of Texas, son of the famed Canadian economist John Kenneth Galbraith - and ask: whose predictions should we believe now?

These were two of the small group of "minortity" economists, warning of the coming crash, who I have been tracking since the early 2000's ...[BTW, I track "outliers" on all the emerging issues that interest me...ie. I started warning clients about the imminant US  banking system collapse and housing collapse in 2006.]

Why did so few economists see this economic crisis coming? Asks the CBC TV reporter, or what I call the  Dog that Didn’t Bark question.

 

 

Here’s a transcript of what James K Galbraith said:

“…Well I think the  economics profession over that last few decades has kind of closed in on itself, it ceased to discuss history in a serious way and it basically excommunicated that relatively small number  of people, who worked on problems of financial crisis and financial instability.

So, there was no dialogue going on, the prospect was not being raised, the profession was busy congratulating itself on having solving the economic problems, on having basically come up with the right formulas for stable expansion, for the control of inflation and they had completely forgotten that the capitalist system has enormous vulnerabilities that come from of the financial sphere, and in addition to that, they were just unequipped to deal with the catastrophic malpractice that was coming from the financial sector over the last five years, they didn’t have the tools, they weren’t studying it, they were caught blind sided by it.”…[…]….Until the crisis actually broke, nobody was paying attention to us."

Dean Baker replies:

"…I was actually tipped off by Alan Greenspan, back in 2002. He was testifying before Congress and he said there was no problem, no bubble in the housing market. And I was reading his testimony and everything he said did not make any sense. He was giving explanations to why there was this sudden rise in house prices. The basic story is that we have a hundred year long history 1895-1995 where nation-wide at least, house prices had just kept pace with the overall  rate of inflation. In other words, House prices has risen at roughly the same rate as the average  other goods, car prices, clothes, gas, whatever it  might be. Suddenly beginning  in the mid 90’s, house prices began to substantially outpace the rate of inflation and by 2002 they had outpaced the rate of inflation by about  30%. And there was no explanation for it that made any sense, based on fundamentals. So to my mind, when you see a hundred year long trend broken, and there is no explanation,  that’s based on fundamentals, it was sort of crying out: Bubble! Bubble ! Bubble!  And I sort of had bubble on my mind because we had just gotten through the stock bubble, and stock crash. We had two explanations. One -this is being driven by something in the fundamentals that no one could identify or  two --the stock bubble had fed over into the housing bubble as was the case in Japan. So that was seemed to be a pretty easy call to me."

Listen to the full interview..a real eye-opener…

 

And what are most of the mainstream economists saying now..don't worry, it will all be over soon...depending on how you take that....that's what I'm worried about--Walter Derzko.

 

Walter Derzko

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

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82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

 

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Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

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