Smart Economy

When will the recession end? Part 27 The Sun could create a double dip depression

New Solar Cycle 24 Prediction: Fewer Sunspots, But Severe Mass Coronal Ejection (MCE) Activity possible.

 

In the past, human populations have survived 7 climate change-related mass extinction events...James Lovelock reminds us...but are we more vulnerable now and less resilient as a society?

 

Now privately, some scientists are quietly predicting two imminant wild card possibilities-a mini ice age, that could punctuate global warming,  if sun spots do not pick up in the next solar spot cycle and the distinct possibility of severe solar storms. At the extreme, both events could cause billions of deaths in a worst case scenario that we looked at last month.

 

Publically, an  international panel of experts has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle, stating that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013with a below-average number of sunspots. Led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and sponsored by NASA, the panel includes a dozen members from nine different government and academic institutions. Their forecast sets the stage for at least another year of mostly quiet conditions before solar activity resumes in earnest [..they hope].

 

 

This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle (Solar Cycle 23) in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle (24) in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center.

 

"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Prediction Center, Boulder, Colo.

 It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression. "Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather,"says Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

The 1859 storm -- named the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare -- electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society’s high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused $80 to 125 billion in damage.

 

 

The latest forecast revises a prediction issued in 2007, when a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 and would be followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models of the solar cycle produced different forecasts, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.

"It turns out that none of the models were really correct,"says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. NASA’s lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

Yearly-averaged sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2000. Researchers believe upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will be similar to the cycle that peaked in 1928, marked in red. Credit: NASA/MSFC

Astronomers first noted the solar cycle in the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. Predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome because cycles vary in length from 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch much longer. In the 17th century, the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotless quiet known as the Maunder Minimum (mini ice age) that still baffles scientists.

At a recent climate change symposium at Monash University in Australia, David Archibald, an expert in solar cycles stated:

“You haven’t seen any sign of the end of Solar Cycle 23 yet and the cooling over Solar
Cycle 24 as a consequence may be as much as 2.8 degrees centigrade. We are due for a de Vries cycle cooling event every two hundred and ten years, and actually even a Bond event because the last one of those was in the Dark Ages. And severe cooling over the next twenty years is now a certainty.” 

Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspotcounts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.

"In our professional careers, we’ve never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond what we predicted in 2007."

 

 

In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel’s new, almost unanimous forecast.

 

 

According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that’s good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth’s poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.

 

Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.

"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."

Source: Marshall Space Flight Center

Walter Derzko

US Electricity Grid Penetrated By Russian and Chinese CyberSpies according to Wall Street Journal April 8, 2009

"Cyberspies from China, Russia and other countries have penetrated the U.S.electrical grid and left behind software programs that could be used to disrupt the system, according to current and former national-security officials. Officials said water, sewage and other infrastructure systems also were at risk." claims the Wall Street Journal this morning. 

 

Although the respective governments are denying any affiliation now, stories in the local Russian and Chinese media about these governments actively recruiting and hiring hackers and cyberspies have appeared regularly since 2004. (see our Smart Economy  theft engine software post and ransomware software in 2006)

Full story here > http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123914805204099085.html

 

Walter Derzko

With a bit of electricity, Microbes turn CO2 and water into methane.

Environmentalists & the Green movement have it all wrong. I've long said that we should view carbon dioxide (CO2) as a something positive, an input or a fundimental  building block or feedstock and not as something negative to get rid of, hide  or sequester underground.

Now, according to Penn State engineers, methanogenic microorganisms can take electricity and directly convert carbon dioxide (C02) and water into methane, producing a portable energy source with a potentially neutral carbon footprint.

"We were studying making hydrogen in microbial electrolysis cells and we kept getting all this methane," said Bruce E. Logan, Kappe Professor of Environmental Engineering, Penn State. "We may now understand why."

Methanogenic microorganisms do produce methane in marshes and dumps, but scientists thought that the organisms turned hydrogen or organic materials, such as acetate, into methane. However, the researchers found, while trying to produce hydrogen in microbial electrolysis cells, that their cells produced much more methane than expected.

"All the methane generation going on in nature that we have assumed is going through hydrogen may not be," said Logan. "We actually find very little hydrogen in the gas phase in nature. Perhaps where we assumed hydrogen is being made, it is not."

Microbial electrolysis cells do require an electrical voltage to be added to the voltage that is produced by bacteria using organic materials to produce current that evolves into hydrogen.

The researchers found that the methanogenic microorganisms Archaea, using about the same electrical input, could use the current to convert carbon dioxide and water to methane without any organic material, bacteria or hydrogen usually found in microbial electrolysis cells. They report their findings in this week's issue of Environmental Science and Technology

Walter Derzko

 

Self-powered nanobattery-free energy from motion

Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta have developed an extremely tiny nanogenerator that can produce electricity from the mechanical energy naturally produced when our bodies move (aka the piezoelectric effect  or mechanical pressure converted to electricity)

 

According to the press release:

 

"With further development, the nanogenerator could allow people to power personal electronic devices, such as cell phones, MP3 players, and maybe even small laptop computers, entirely from the physical exertions of a day at the office. It could also usher in a new era of long-lived microsensors and miniature medical devices that derive their electrical needs from their surroundings instead of from batteries.

 

 

First demonstrated in the 1880s, the ability of some materials to convert mechanical pressure into an electric current--called the piezoelectric effect--has found scattered applications over the years. For example, it powers the flashing LEDs embedded in the soles of children's sneakers, and it produces sparks to ignite propane-fueled candle and fireplace lighters. But so far, no one has been able to channel this essentially free power into very small applications--particularly at the nanoscale, where devices can be thousands of times smaller than the thickness of a human hair. Nanosized piezoelectric devices would be extremely valuable because they could operate indefinitely without the need to be repowered or recharged.

 

The device relies on flexible zinc oxide nanowires sprouting like bristles from a metal electrode and sandwiched inside a rigid polymer binding. When pressed, the polymer bends the zinc oxide filaments, which generate an electrical current.  So far, the research team has been able to generate 0.2 volts with an efficiency of only 6.8%--far below the performance of conventional batteries. Still, that's already enough for some practical applications, if many nanogenerators are integrated."

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Electrical Grid not hacker-proof but susceptible to cyber attacks

Next to the Forbes Business and Finance Blog Network web site,  that often features the Smart Economy blog posts, IBM features a banner advertising their smarter planet initiative, which promotes their smart technologies such as the smart grid initiative.

 

Several years ago, when I spoke at the World Future Society annual meeting on smart technologies, I mentioned that the one of the key weaknesses of this technology, was that everything is linked together, therefore vulnerable to hacking and cyber attacks. This includes smart grids, smart cities, and other smart objects linked through the internet of things and  internet of services.

 

This week, researchers reported that they created a computer worm (like the virus that attacks your computer, or cell phone) that could quickly spread among Smart Grid devices such as smart meters through those intelligent networks. PC World reports that:

“Researchers have spent the past year testing Smart Grid devices for security vulnerabilities and have discovered a number of flaws that could allow hackers to access the network and cut power, according to Joshua Pennell, IOActive's CEO. Smart Grid devices are small computers that are connected to the power grid, giving customers and power companies better control over the electricity they use. There are about 2 million of these devices currently deployed [in the USA] , but many more are expected to be added in coming years...[another 17 million of these devices over the next few years.--Walter Derzko ]

The researchers created a computer worm that could quickly spread among Smart Grid devices, many of which use wireless technology to communicate, according to Travis Goodspeed, an independent security consultant who worked with the team. "It spread from one meter to another and then it changed the text in the LCD screen to say 'pwned'," he said. Pwned is hacker-speak meaning "taken over."

In the hands of a malicious hacker, this code could be used to cut power to Smart Grid devices that use a feature called "remote disconnect," which allows power companies to cut a customer's power via the network.

IOActive briefed the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on its findings Monday and is advising the utilities industry to better test the systems before deploying them in the real world.”

[....] 

The robustness of U.S. power networks has been a hot-button issue after a technical glitch in 2003 caused a cascading power failure in the eastern United States and Canadathat affected 55 million people.

Last year the National Journal claimed that Chinese military and government officials may have been behind two blackouts in 2003. It reports a theory that a Chinese hacker who was intending to gather data on power systems had either made a mistake or got carried away and wound up triggering the blackout. Now, even Russiam politicians have admitted being behind the cyberattacks that targeted the Baltic republics recently.

Walter Derzko, 

author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunites

 

When will the recession / depression end? Part 22 Why we are likely to see a protracted L-shaped or double dip W-Shaped Recession?

Collapsed container traffic  and falling electricity demand

 

 

GDP growth or collapse is a poor early warning indicator for the economy. Figures are historic -they are released several months (usually 3 months) after the fact and the are then usually revised. As politicians are fond of saying, we've seen a global symmetric  (I'd argue.. asymmetric) collapse in GDP.

 

Here are the recently released GDP numbers for the 4th quarter of 2008.

 

Canada (-3.4%)

The EU (-5.9%)

The USA (-6.2%)

Japan (-12.7%)

 

Everyone is expecting even worse numbers in Q1 2009.

 

One proxy indicator that I follow is global trade. Back in 2006 and 2007 I was  looking for early signals/signs of impending collapse and now I’m tracking trade to determine if the economy will be in a protracted holding pattern (like the lost decade in the 1990’s in Japan, although it should be called the lost 2 decades) or will we see some resemblence of any recovery of international trade any time soon?

 

Bulk goods and container traffic is a good leading 6 month proxy for the economy. Manufacturers order raw materials in anticipation of manufacturing growth. In America, the container traffic in Long Beach California (the busiest port in the USA)  totally collapsed in 2007, long before there were any signs that the economy had peaked. Container traffic, dry and wet bulk goods traffic and shipping rates have been down and flat ever since-at historic low levels. If you use these indicators, there is ABSOLUTELY NO RECOVERY  in sight for 2009. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is showing some signs of life, but it's a type #1 error, also known in academics as a false positive. Suppliers are using some creaive accounting by attempting to take their goods "off their books" shifting them into the F.O.B catagory, but these raw materials, assembled cars and even oil supplies are just sitting inside container ships in ports, awaiting for commodity prices to increase. (hat tip to Zavis Zeman for alerting us to this tactic)

Power consumption is another good indicator to watch that signals the health of the economy. (the same is equally true for industrial use of coal, gas and oil, if you can find the data.)

 

Historically, electricity consumption and GDP growth are closely coupled, although there is still debate in the academic literature on what causes what. Does electricity use drive GDP growth or the other way around.Energy conservation efforts are starting to confound the data too.  When I can find it, I use monthly and annual power consumption data as a proxy indicator for economic recovery. The logic is simple. If you are not running a second or third shift, or if you have closed down your factory, then energy use will drop long before we see any GDP changes in government statistics. Likewise, on the way up, energy consumption should be flat and then start to slowly rise before we see any effects in GDP numbers.

China and India have become the world's manufacturers, so their health is a proxy indicator for global economic health. Both China and Indiahave reported drastic energy consumption drops in their industrial sectors. Starting in late 2007 and right through 2008,

China reported a drop in consumption, although relative year-over-year, power consumption was positive, still growing but at a much slower decelerated pace. As the global financial crisis began to take a toll on the real economy, power demand plummeted in China, as enterprises shut down or cut back working hours in response to moribund business orders.

"Power consumption in China grew 5.23 percent in 2008, 9.57 percentage points lower than a year ago and the slowest in eight years, according to Chinese data. The slowing demand was mainly contributed by the industrial sector.  About 3.43 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity was used by the industry last year, up 3.83 percent from a year earlier, slower than the overall social power consumption growth rate for the first time.  Electricity used by the service industry and the rural and urban residents continued rapid growth, as the group was less affected by the financial crisis."

In India, power consumption grew 13.28 % in 2007 (a combination of industrial use, consumer household use, and village electrification) and dropped off the cliff by 16.91 percent in 2008, worse then in China.

 

Walter Derzko

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related Recession / Depression Posts

When will the recession / depression end? Part 21 Darker days ahead , but not for all

When will the recession / depression end? Part 20 The Dog that Didn't Bark; Economists say don't pay attention to us

When will the recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

When will the recession/ depression end? Part 18 Hormones and Boom and Bust Cycles

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 17 Recap from the World Economic Forum in Davos

When will the recession end? Part 16 It's all over, well sort of.

When will the recession end? Part 15 Year-end predictions for 2009 starting to come true

When will the recession end? Part 14 Four options for America's race to the bottom

When will the recession end? Part 13 Thirteen economic questions that economists can't answer

When will the recession end? Part 12 Bad times are good times for startups

When will the recession end? Part 11 Bank of Canada optimism

When will the recession end? Part 10, The Conformity Trap or Don't count on your economist for advise

When will the recession end? Part 9 Humor will signal recession /depression bottom

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will this recession end?

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Are marketers and advertisers starting to smart-wash products or services?

Is it just me or have you noticed that many more marketers have caught on to "smart" as a way to promote their products or services. Some I would count as ligitimate uses and while others boarder on what I call "smart-washing" (pretending to be a  smart product when you really are not.) With billions of dollars in infrastructure money being released by Obama in the USA and Harper in Canada, companies smell opportunity in the "smart space".

It all started with the Super Bowl last month. GE launched it's  GE Smart Grid Technology. Quite a cute and clever commercial, featuring the brain-less scare crow from the Wizard of Oz to promote their Smart Power Grid work.

Yesterday, IBM ran a full page advertising on page B9 in the Globe and Mail newspaper in Toronto touting it's smart grid services from it's "smarter power for a smarter planet" initiative. It was well-worded, informative, and convincing.

Both, I would consider legitimate uses of the word smart, as in adding intelligence to a dumb or benign product or service.

The trouble comes when marketers start liberally tossing the word smart around and calling everything smart. The car companies have caught on and are running ads on TV in Canada calling everything smart. Take the Hyundai "Smart is In" car campaign. It centers around the "Smart" purchase, featuring a beautiful red-headed woman "bumping" a guy's Elantra and setting off the car alarm to get his attention. Then everything becomes smart..smart on gas, smart on quality, smart style, smart advantage. Does this dilute the meaning of "smart" or confuse the consumer or business decsion-maker?

Is this smart-washing or not? The trouble is ..the word "smart", as a verb or noun has over 14 different meanings or groups of synonyms, ranging from intelligent, stylish, sting or prick, annoy, irritate (don't be so smart), to alert, discerning, astute, shrewd etc.

If you see/hear  any new commercials in the press or on TV or the radio featuring "smart products or services", send us a note with a link, and we'll feature them here.

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

 

 

Solar Energy breaks manufacturing milestone barrier of $1 /watt; First Solar Cuts Manufacturing Cost to 98 Cents Per Watt in Fourth Quarter

I track a number of opinion leaders and technology leaders in various smart tecnology fields. First Solar is one of the more interesting companies in PV solar energy space

First Solar, Inc.  yesterday announced that it has reduced its manufacturing cost for solar modules in the fourth quarter to 98 cents per watt, breaking the $1 per watt price barrier.

“This achievement marks a milestone in the solar industry’s evolution toward providing truly sustainable energy solutions,” said Mike Ahearn, First Solar chief executive officer. “First Solar is proud to be leading the way toward clean, affordable solar electricity as a viable alternative to fossil fuels.”

Background from the Press Release

First Solar began full commercial operation of its initial manufacturing line in late 2004. From 2004 through today, manufacturing capacity has grown 2,500 percent to more than 500 megawatts in 2008. First Solar’s annual production capacity will double in 2009 to more than 1 gigawatt, the equivalent of an average-sized nuclear power plant. These escalating volumes have been accompanied by a rapid reduction in manufacturing costs. From 2004 through today, First Solar’s manufacturing costs have declined two-thirds from over $3 per watt to less than $1 per watt.  First Solar is confident that further significant cost reductions are possible based on the yet untapped potential of its technology and manufacturing process.  [N.B.-This I.P. is kept quite secret-public tours of the plant are strictly forbidden--Walter Derzko]

The press release goes on to say:

"First Solar is not only committed to making solar power affordable but also to making it environmentally sustainable. The Company takes responsibility for its products throughout their life cycle, ensuring that First Solar modules have the smallest carbon footprint of any current photovoltaic (PV) technology. First Solar is proud to have the industry’s first and only comprehensive pre-funded, end-of-life module collection and recycling program, recycling more than 90 percent of each collected module into new products."

Ahearn expressed thanks to governments in

Germany

and other countries for making today’s milestone possible.

“Without forward-looking government programs supporting solar electricity, we would not have been able to invest in the capacity expansion which gives us the scale to bring costs down,” he said. “First Solar’s ongoing focus on cost reduction enables continued growth even as subsidies decline. In the meantime, those initial investments are paying off in a cleaner environment and in the creation of thousands of jobs with a clear future.”

“This represents a major milestone for the solar industry,” said Ken Zweibel, an industry veteran currently serving as Director of the Institute for the Analysis of Solar Energy at The George Washington University and former Program Leader for the Thin Film Partnership Program at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo.

“In order to address climate change in a meaningful way, we need energy technologies that are affordable, scalable and have a low environmental impact on a life-cycle basis. With this announcement, First Solar continues to demonstrate the ability of thin film PV technology to provide an alternative to traditional fossil fuels and for solar power to provide a meaningful contribution in addressing climate change

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Why sustainable power is unsustainable?- advanced "renewable" technologies are too often based upon non-renewable resources

Recessions and depressions are great periods in history because paradoxes and contradictions seem to stand out even more. The big one facing society in the next two decades is the obvious economic one-everything in our conventional economic paradigm is based on annual, year-over-year growth, yet we appear to be entering a period of "peak resources" ranging from peak water, to peak oil, peak gas and most importantly for business, peak minerals-facts that the green eco-movement often ignores, or is hiding in the closet-the dirty green secret.

A story earlier this month in New Scientist, covered a Financial Times conference on energy and sustainability in London England and it concludes:

"Renewable energy needs to become a lot more renewable...[..]... Although scientists are agreed that we must cut carbon emissions from transport and electricity generation to prevent the globe's climate becoming hotter, and more unpredictable, the most advanced "renewable" technologies are too often based upon non-renewable resources, attendees heard. Supratik Guha of IBM told the conference that sales of silicon solar cells are booming, with 2008 being the first year that the silicon wafers for solar cells outstripped those used for microelectronic devices. But although silicon is the most abundant element in the Earth's crust after oxygen, it makes relatively inefficient cells that struggle to compete with electricity generated from fossil fuels. And the most advanced solar-cell technologies rely on much rarer materials than silicon [-that being indium.]"

[..]...Peak Indium? 10 year of global supply left?

"The efficiency of solar cells is measured as a percentage of light energy they convert to electricity. Silicon solar cells finally reached 25% in late December. But multi-junction solar cells can achieve efficiencies greater than 40%.

 

Although touted as the future of solar power, those and most other multiple-junction cells owe their performance to the rare metal indium, which is far from abundant. There are fewer than 10 indium-containing minerals, and none present in significant deposits – in total the metal accounts for a paltry 0.25 parts per million of the Earth's crust.

 

Most of the rare and expensive element is used to manufacture LCD screens, an industry that has driven indium prices to $1000 per kilogram in recent years. Estimates that did not factor in an explosion in indium-containing solar panels reckon we have only a 10 year supply of it left.

If power from the Sun is to become a major source of electricity, solar panels would have to cover huge areas, making an alternative to indium essential."

Could we see resource wars, {which the US military has extensive plans for}, material rationing or outright prohibition like we saw with alcohol in the 1930's? Will we have to select between indium for our cell phones, flat screen TV's or solar cells? Will nanotech breakthroughs come to the rescue? -will an exotic combination of fullerenes, graphenes and carbon nanotubes be the substitution answer? The nanotech race for an alternative is on.--Walter Derzko

 

They also cover peak Platinum

"The dream of the hydrogen economy faces similar challenges, said Paul Adcock of UK firm Intelligent Energy. A cheap way to generate hydrogen has so far proved elusive. New approaches, such as using bacterial enzymes to "split" water, have a long way to go before they are commercially viable. So far, fuel cells are still the most effective way to turn the gas into electricity. But these mostly rely on expensive platinum to catalyse the reaction.

The trouble is, platinum makes indium appear super-abundant. It is present in the Earth's crust at just 0.003 parts per billion and is priced in $ per gram, not per kilogram. Estimates say that, if the 500 million vehicles in use today were fitted with fuel cells, all the world's platinum would be exhausted within 15 years. Unfortunately platinum-free fuel cells are still a long way from the test track. A nickel-catalysed fuel cell developed at  Wuhan University, China, has a maximum output only around 10% of that a platinum catalyst can offer.

A new approach announced yesterday demonstrates that carbon nanotubes could be more effective, as well as cheaper, than platinum. But again it will be many years before platinum-free fuel cells become  a commercial prospect."

Also , could Lithium shortages in 10-15 years  impede future electric car deployment?

 

Let’s look at the  metal gallium, which along with indium is used to make the next generation of semiconductor materials-indium gallium arsenide for a new generation of solar cells that promise to be up to twice as efficient as conventional designs. Reserves of both metals are disputed, but in a 2007 report Renï  Kleijn, from LeidenUniversity in the Netherlands, concludes that current reserves "would not allow a substantial contribution of these cells" to the future supply of solar electricity. He estimates gallium and indium will probably contribute to less than 1 per cent of all future solar cells - a limitation imposed purely by a lack of raw material."

Other projections I've seen-antimony could run out in 10 years; Silver in 10 years, hafnium in 10-15 years and tribium by 2012 or 4-5 years. Looking for the next geopolitical flash point? The US imports 90% of its rare metals and materials from China.

(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol 103, p 1209), "Virgin stocks of several metals appear inadequate to sustain the modern 'developed world' quality of life for all of Earth's people under contemporary technology."

 

I've always wondered what minerals are hidden in the mountains of Afghanistan.... "It is widely acknowledged that one of the key motives for civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1998 and 2002 was the riches to be had from the country's mineral resources, including tantalum mines - the biggest in Africa. The war coincided with a surge in the price of the metal caused by the increasing popularity of mobile phones." (New Scientist, 7 April 2001, p 46).

 

 

Ever wonder why China is hoarding every gram of our high tech electronic garbage?  It's buying up high-tech scrap to extract metals that are key to its developing industries.

 

One good thing about this recession / depression shakeout-there will be far fewer firms fighting and scrambling over those increasingly precious resources-buying us a few extra years of transition time.

 

The lessons here?...Digging minerals out of the ground will no longer automatically confer economic advantage {Canada, Africa, Brazil and China Listen Up}, instead structuring "smart materials" in novel ways will.--Walter Derzko 

 

 

See full story here and image  

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Smart biomimetic, heliotropic solar panels track the sun without motors or control systems

Sometimes you see an innovation that makes perfect sense and you wonder why no one discovered this before. [Hat tip to Nature !!!]

 

Entrepreneurs need to be working more with designers, engineers and biologists. Case in point

A group of three MIT students (Forrest Liau, Vyom Sharma, and George Whitfield)have designed a system that allows solar PV panels to track the sun without motors or control systems. The student team, called Heliotrope, won first prize  which included a  check for $10,000 in the finals of a competition called MADMEC 2008: "Materials Solutions for Alternative Energy"-aimed at developing innovative energy technologies

One green  Blogger writes

"They designed the system to imitate the way plants track the sun across the sky, by using the difference in temperature between shaded and sunny areas to change the properties of the material supporting solar photovoltaic cells. The system, once built, is completely passive, requiring no power source or electronics to control the movement. Solar cells that track the angle of the sun can be 38 percent more efficient at generating power than those that are mounted in a fixed position.

The team explored several different variations of the proposed system, using various materials including polymers and bimetallic strips. The system that shows the most promise, they said, mounts solar panels at the top of a curved arch made of a pair of metals such as aluminum and steel, which should be durable enough to withstand the elements with little or no maintenance.

The team demonstrated a scale model of the arch by shining a spotlight to warm up one side and cause the arch to bend, tilting the solar panel toward the light. They explained that the prototypes are cheaper than existing systems for tracking the sun and could be built from materials that are readily available in developing nations."

Abstract of the project from the MIT web site

Many plants are phototropic/heliotropic, gradually tilting towards the sun to optimize solar energy capture. Current sun-tracking solar panels involve the use of motors and electronic control systems, but we believe a biomimetic heliotropic solar panel can be created with the use of alternative materials and designs. Practically, the heliotropic solar panel could be useful in developing areas, where motor-based sun-tracking panels are not affordable. From an expressive standpoint, a solar panel that tilts towards the sun (like a sunflower) can help the public see a connection between the natural and the high tech.

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page