Smart Economy

Early warning signals, climate change, ice ages and tipping points

Regular Smart Economy blog readers will remember the theory that I posted a while back-geologically speaking, earth should be in an ice age now--i.e Toronto should be covered by about a Km of ice, if it wasn't for all the human produced CO2 and global warming largely due to of 8,000 years of agriculture, such as rice farming and deforestation.

Now comes a paper in New Scientist that provides evidence that the transition to a previous mini ice age about 13,000 years ago (from a warm sunny  climate to a landscape of ice covered glaciers) took an incredible short period of time (6 months to a year) and not the decade or decades that we previously assumed.

New Scientist writes:

"JUST months - that's how long it took for Europe to be engulfed by an ice age. The scenario, which comes straight out of Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow, was revealed by the most precise record of the climate from palaeohistory ever generated.Around 12,800 years ago the northern hemisphere was hit by the Younger Dryas mini ice age, or "Big Freeze". It was triggered by the slowdown of the Gulf Stream, led to the decline of the Clovis culture in North America, and lasted around 1300 years.

Until now, it was thought that the mini ice age took a decade or so to take hold, on the evidence provided by Greenland ice cores. Not so, say William Patterson of the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon, Canada, and his colleagues.The group studied a mud core from an ancient lake, Lough Monreagh, in western Ireland. Using a scalpel they sliced off layers 0.5 to 1 millimetre thick, each representing up to three months of time. No other measurements from the period have approached this level of detail.

 Carbon isotopes in each slice revealed how productive the lake was and oxygen isotopes gave a picture of temperature and rainfall. They show that at the start of the Big Freeze, temperatures plummeted and lake productivity stopped within months, or a year at most.  

[...]

The mud slices from the end of the Big Freeze show that it took around two centuries for the lake and climate to recover.

 Patterson says that sudden climate switches like the Big Freeze are far from unusual in the geological record.

The Younger Dryas was brought about when a glacial lake covering most of north-west Canada burst its banks and poured into the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The huge flood diluted the salinity-driven North Atlantic Ocean mega-currents, including the Gulf Stream, and stalled it.

Two studies published in 2006 show that the same thing happened again 8200 years ago, when the Northern hemisphere went through another cold spell.

Some climate scientists have suggested that the Greenland ice sheet could have the same effect if it suddenly melts through climate change (see Hansen comment below), but the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded this was unlikely to happen this century....[the truth is that they just don't know for sure--Walter Derzko]

Seems almost anti-intuitive; Here's the likley sequence:

Global warming ( natural or man-made), ->Greenland ice sheet melting, -> change in ocean salinity; -> Atlantic Gulf stream stalling; -> mini ice age..

This shows how we can get stuck in dictotomous thinking...the debate is  not whether or not we have global warming or global cooling, or if it is man-made or caused by nature,  but the recognition that we can have both at the same time -that's what happens at tipping points or critical transitions !!--Walter Derzko

Another significant advance comes out of this research..and this is really cool-a weather report from millions of years ago:

"Patterson's team have now set their sights on even more precise records of historical climate. They have built a robot able to shave 0.05 micrometre slivers along the growth lines of fossilised clam shells, giving a resolution of less than a day. "We can get you mid-July temperatures from 400 million years ago," he says."

Climate scientist James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, in Newsweek interview  (http://www.newsweek.com/id/224178 ) said last week:

“The Greenland ice sheet had been losing between 150 and 200 cubic kilometers a year in 2002, and now is losing almost 300 cubic kilometers a year.”  

But Hanen doesn't say when we will reach the tipping point. How much fresh water is needed to dilute ocean salinity and disrupt the North Atlantic current and tip into an ice age? Well we just  don’t know for sure—all of it is pure guesswork.  or to support some political agenda --Walter Derzko

 

 

Hanson adds: “Antarctica had been losing less than 100 cubic kilometers a year, and is now losing more than 150, so it seems like we're heading into a period of much more rapid ice sheet loss. Also, in the arctic we've lost 40 percent of the sea ice in the warm season, and that will soon be 100 percent. Mountain glaciers are retreating rapidly  and could be gone in 50 years. (Recently,  our mainstream climate modelers said this would take a century or more --100 years, but it's happening right now—Walter Derzko)

 

That's why it's important to continue to do R&D work on early warning signals for critical transitions.

A paper titled -Early warning signals for critical transitions, in the Sept 13 issue of Nature states:

"Complex adaptive dynamic systems (such as ecosystems, financial markets, and climate ) can have tipping points (or critical transitions,) at which point a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is exrtemely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existance of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching."

Walter Derzko

African pollution spreads to Americas in dust storms

Source: Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 2009 conference

We know that African dust affects weather and hurricane severity in America...now we have one more thing to worry about---If only pollution would stay where it originates..it doesn't--Walter Derzko

 

It’s an ill wind that blows: African dust making it across the ocean:

Increasing quantities of African dust have blown across the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean and Americas over the past few decades. During that time, the dust’s composition has changed. In this study, African dust air masses in Africa and the Caribbeanwere analyzed for persistent organic contaminants and metals.  These potentially toxic contaminants can originate from the burning of plastics, biomass and waste; widespread use of pesticides, plastics, and pharmaceuticals; and increased industrialization. Multiple pesticides and other contaminants, including carcinogens, suppressors of immune systems, disruptors of endocrine systems, and nervous system or liver toxins were identified from all sample sites.  All are known to persist in the environment, accumulate in organisms, and are toxic at very low concentrations.

This study, Chasing clouds of dust: transoceanic transport of synthetic organic pollutants and trace metals with African dust, will be presented on Nov. 22 at 11 a.m. in Ballroom D. For more information, contact Ginger Garrison at ginger_garrison@usgs.gov or at         727-803-8747     , ext. 3061.

This could be both a threat ( a health concern) and an opportunity ( an engineering or nanotech designer surface chemistry solution waiting to be born) A researcher I once met 6-7 years ago at the Lviv Polytechnic University in Ukraine was developing "smart" designer surfaces and filters that would attract and trap specific volatile organic compounds (VOC's). This seems like a perfect extension. As well, meta-genomics can be used to map the genetics of clusters of the hundreds of microbes that can "eat" or digest heavy metals in the soil. If governments around the world instituted a cradle-to-grave policy on cleanup, then all manufacturers would contribute to collaborative R&D efforts shared by the industry,but we are a long way away frm this type of international enlightenment--Walter Derzko

Walter Derzko

Sun Spring-Unlimited solar power

The Ukrainian Space Agency has a unique project proposal. Code named Sun Spring, the project plans to harvest 5 gigawatts of solar sunlight in space.

 

When it comes to Ukraine, political bickering, the economic crisis, corruption and scandals and other negative events such as Chornobyl tend to dominate the international headlines.  But, after my most recent two week trip to Ukraine, I can confidently report that despite all of these negative perceptions that make the public spotlight, on the positive side of the ledger, innovation, discovery and creativity is alive and flourishing in Ukraine. In some cases, it can be ranked as world-class. After the fall of the Soviet Union, one of the few positive things that Ukraine inherited was over 1400 academic research institutes and some of the best theoretical scientists in the world  Many of these institutes were classified as secret military establishments  working on weapons of mass destruction. Now this science know-how is being converted to peaceful civilian applications (see www.stcu.int)

 

 

I presented a paper on business opportunities at the nexus of aerospace and aviation at the Canada Ukraine Aerospace and Aviation Business Summit in Kyiv on Sept 28 to Sept 30, 2009, which was sponsored by the Canadian Space Agency, The National Research Council of Canada, The National Ukrainian Space Agency and the Science and Technology Center of Ukraine. Participants included many noteworthy Canadian companies and institutions such as Bombardier, MacDonald Dettwiller and Associates (MDA),  L-3 WESCAM; MDS Corporation,  Novatel, Aerospace Industries Association of Canada, the Canadian Space Agency and the National Research Council of Canada and others.

 

Sun Spring

While a number of Canadian and Ukrainian innovations and collaborative projects were discussed, one project that was proposed by the Ukrainian Space Agency caught my eye. Code named Sun Spring, it extends the observation that every child knows, who is playing with a magnifying glass. Children quickly learn that they can easily focus the sun’s rays with a magnifying glass to burn or heat up a point source on the ground. This same macro effect occurs in space but at orders of magnitude larger. As the sun shines on the earth, the atmosphere which is about 100 miles in circumference, concentrates sunlight just like a magnifying glass does toward a theoretical point source along a spectrum line at a distance from 0.6 to 1.2 million kms from the center of the earth and opposite to the sun. This theoretic power point spectrum rotates along with the earth as the globe rotates around the sun. It creates an estimated power source of 5 gigawatts or the equivalent energy savings of 144,000 tons of coal per day.  The Ukrainian Space Agency plans to tap this Solar Spring by initially sending up satellites to measuring these power levels and locations in space and then launch and mount an array of satellites with solar mirrors in synchronous earth orbit, that would reflect this concentrated sunlight back to the earth to the more or less stationary North and South poles. Just like the existing solar farms in Spain and Quebec, these solar farms would be used to heat steam turbines to produce electricity. This 30 year project, which appears to be feasible with existing technology, is now looking for other international collaborators. Other spinoffs could include: anti-asteroid protection; weather & climate control, acceleration of vegitation & plankon growth in oceans, other geoengineering projects,

Hydrated Fullerenes and Carbon Nanotubes positively affect plant & animal growth

Researchers  at the Institute for Physiological Active Compounds in Kharkiv Ukraine have in the past two years shown that hydrated fullerenes (C60) HYFNs have a positive effect on both plant and animal growth. One day old chicks, who  are feed water with nano levels of fullerenes are healthier, weigh more and don't need antibiotics. (Hydrated Fullerenes have anti-viral and anti-bacterial properties)

Similarly wheat seedlings dipped in water laced with hydrated fullerenes, grow faster and produce healthier and more tolerant wheat plants.

Now we see similar results with carbon nanotubes. (BTW it may all come down to price--Fullerenes are less expensive to produce then CNT and safer and less expesive then antibiotics. A Fullerene Water Solution (FWS) drink is about to be launched in the Ukrainian market-a world first)

Scientists in Arkansas are reporting that carbon nanotubes (CNTs) could have similar beneficial effects in agriculture. Their study, found that tomato seeds exposed to CNTs germinated faster and grew into larger, heavier seedlings than other seeds. That growth-enhancing effect could be a boon for biomass production for plant-based biofuels and other agricultural products, they suggest.

Mariya Khodakovskaya, Alexandru Biris, and colleagues note that considerable scientific research is underway to use nanoparticles — wisps 1/50,000th the width of a human hair — in agriculture. The goals of "nano-agriculture" include improving the productivity of plants for food, fuel, and other uses.

The scientists report the first evidence that CNTs penetrate the hard outer coating of seeds, and have beneficial effects. Nanotube-exposed seeds sprouted up to two times faster than control seeds and the seedlings weighed more than twice as much as the untreated plants. Those effects may occur because nanotubes penetrate the seed coat and boost water uptake, the researchers state. "This observed positive effect of CNTs on the seed germination could have significant economic importance for agriculture, horticulture, and the energy sector, such as for production of biofuels," they add.

Source: Carbon Nanotubes Are Able To Penetrate Plant Seed Coat and Dramatically Affect Seed Germination and Plant Growth"

DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ARTICLE

Walter Derzko

Glacial melting releases pollutants in the environment

Those pristine-looking Alpine glaciers now melting as global warming sets in may explain the mysterious increase in persistent organic pollutants in sediment from certain lakes since the 1990s, despite decreased use of those compounds in pesticides, electric equipment, paints and other products. That's the conclusion of a new study, scheduled for the Nov. 1 issue of ACS' Environmental Science & Technology, a semi-monthly journal. In the study, Christian Bogdal and colleagues focused on organic pollutants in sediment from a model body of water –– glacier-fed Lake Oberaar in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland –– testing for the persistent organic pollutants, including dioxins, PCBs, organochlorine pesticides and synthetic musk fragrances. They found that while contamination decreased to low levels in the 1980s and 1990s due to tougher regulations and improvements in products, since the late 1990s flow of all of these pollutants into the lake has increased sharply. Currently, the flow of organochlorines into the lake is similar to or even higher than in the 1960s and 1970s, the report states.

 

The study attributed the most recent spike in the flow of pollutants into Lake Oberaar to the accelerated release of organic chemicals from melting Alpine glaciers, where contaminants were deposited earlier and preserved over decades. "Considering ongoing global warming and accelerated massive glacial melting predicted for the future, our study indicates the potential for environmental impacts due to pollutants delivered into pristine mountainous areas," Bogdal said.

Source: "Blast from the Past: Melting Glaciers as a Relevant Source for Persistent Organic Pollutants"

Download here

 

 

Walter Derzko  

Magneto-seismic techniques developed to forecast space storms

Yesterday,  we explore the impacts of solar storms or solar flares that periodically bombard the earth. A team from the University of Alberta has develped an early warning system for such storms...like an advanced  geiger counter for space or "space seismology". Specifically they are exploring magnetic disturbances that help predict the arrival of a space storm.

A  team of researchers at the University of Alberta in Edmonton Canada has broken new ground in outer space by pinpointing the impact epicentre of an earthbound space storm as it crashes into the atmosphere and giving an advance warning that it's on the way...a key capability that wasn't available before. In 1989, a powerful solar storm knocked out power in the Canadian povince of Quebec for 9 hours.

The studies, using data from the NASA THEMIS mission, reveal that magnetic blast waves can be used to pinpoint and predict the location at the edge of space where space storms dissipate their energy. The technique can be considered as the seismology of space, the epicentre marking the location where the energy equivalent to 50 gigawatts of power, or the output of 10 of the world's largest power stations, is dumped into the atmosphere.

Physicists Jonathan Rae and Ian Mann are leading the U of A research team that has found the epicenter of impact. Their team is using ground stations spread across northern Canada and the five satellites of the THEMIS project to pick up magnetic disturbances as the storm crashes into the atmosphere. With information from the "space seismology" the researchers look for the eye of the storm, hundreds of thousands of kilometres above the Earth.

"We see the benevolent side of space storms in form of the northern lights," said Mann. "When electrically charged particles speed towards Earth and buffet the atmosphere, the result is often a dancing shimmering light over the polar region."

The U of A team has also determined that the magnetic tremors show that the space storm impact into the atmosphere has a unique epicentre. The eye of the storm is in deep space, far past the orbits of most communication satellites. Guided by the earth's magnetic field, the magnetic tremors rocket through space towards the planet. These disturbances trigger magnetic sensors on the ground as they impact the atmosphere at the edge of space. The space storm's effects, and the most spectacular displays of the northern lights, follow a few minutes later. The earth is protected from the most damaging direct effects of the radiation from these space storms by its atmosphere, but in space there is nowhere to hide. High-energy electrically charged particles released in space storms can disable spacecraft, interrupt radio communications and GPS navigation, and damage electric power grids.

Probing the eye of a space storm and recognizing the advance warning signs are crucial for researchers trying to understand space weather. Key questions about when and how space storms start are still challenging researchers on the THEMIS team. Like forecasters on Earth who predict severe weather, the University of Alberta researchers are now using these magneto-seismic techniques to investigate methods to forecast space storms.

Source: University of Alberta

Walter Derzko              

Smart living corrosion-inhibiting coatings encapsulate good bacteria spores

A new, environmentally friendly coating that protects metals against corrosion in seawater has been developed by a team of researchers from Sheffield Hallam University in the UK.

At the Society for General Microbiology meeting in Harrogate today, researchers describe how they had encapsulated spores from a bacterium into a sol-gel coating which then protected an aluminium alloy from microbial corrosion.

Microbially-influenced corrosion (MIC) of metals at sea is a big safety and financial problem caused by the production of damaging substances such as hydrogen sulphide by sulphate-reducing micro-organisms within biofilms on the surfaces. Overall it is estimated that corrosion costs the UK around 3-4% of GDP. Existing anti-corrosion treatments are costly, ineffective and often include biocides and inhibitors that are toxic to aquatic life.

The corrosion-preventing bacteria occur naturally in the environment. Incorporating its spores into the coating did not seem to affect their viability – living cells were still found in the coating after more than six weeks in seawater. The coating could also be heat cured at temperatures up to 90°C.

Speaking at the meeting, scientists said: "Our results from laboratory studies and a field trial in the Thames estuary have shown that the bacteria-containing coating is substantially more effective in the prevention of corrosion than the sol-only coating. We are investigating what causes the corrosion protection – we think it might be due to the immobilized bacteria producing antimicrobial agents which inhibit the growth of corrosion-causing microorganisms". Additional trials are now planned or in progress in a variety of marine environments.

Walter Derzko

Buckyballs or fullerenes keep pipes clear and water systems flowing

Two years ago, we featured a story about a team of Ukrainian scientists, who have shown that C60 or buckeyballs, specifically a modified form known as "hydrated fullerenes" (HyFn) can effectively prevent or bust existing blood clots in animal experiments and in early pre-clinical trials along with about a dozen  other numerous possible medical applications.  .....(which include  a possible treatment for  Alzheimer's and exibiting  strong anti-oxidant, anti-viral and anti-bacterial properties (HyFn doesn't kill viruses but prevents the spread from cell to cell.) A buckyball, or C60, is one shape within the family of tiny carbon shapes known as fullerenes. They are named after Richard Buckminster Fuller, the inventor of the geodesic dome, since their shape resembles his famous structure.

Now American scientists have transfered that capability  into an inoganic application--these same microscopic nanoparticles of carbon will in the future be able to keep the nation's water pipes (and possibly oil pipelines) clear in the same way conventional  clot-busting drugs prevent arteries from clogging up.

[The first picture on the left  show a membrane without fullerene treatmenmt. The second picture below shows the effects with fullerene treatment.]

Engineers at Duke University have found that buckyballs hinder the ability of bacteria and other microorganisms to accumulate on the membranes used to filter water in treatment plants. This attribute leads the researchers to believe that coating pipes and membranes with these nanoparticles may prove to be an effective strategy for

addressing one of the major problems and costs of treating water.

"Just as plaque can build up inside arteries and reduce the flow of blood, bacteria and other microorganisms can over time attach and accumulate on water treatment membranes and along water pipes," said So-Ryong Chae, post-doctoral fellow in Duke's environmental and civil engineering department. The results of his experiments were published March 5, 2009 in the Journal of Membrane Sciences

"As the bacteria build up on these surfaces, they attract other organic matter, creating a biofilm that slowly builds up over time," Chae continued, "The results of our experiments in the laboratory indicate that buckyballs may be able to prevent this clogging, known as biofouling. The only other options to address biofouling are digging up the pipes and replacing the membranes, which can be expensive and inconvenient."

"Biofouling is viewed as one of the biggest costs associated with membrane-based water treatment systems," said Claudia Gunsch, assistant professor of civil engineering at Duke's Pratt School of Engineering and senior member of the research team. "These membranes have very small pores, so they can get stopped up quickly. If we could increase the time between membrane replacements by 50 percent, for example, that would be a huge cost savings."

 

According to Chae, the addition of buckyballs to treatment membranes had a two-fold effect. First, treated membranes showed less bacterial attachment than non-treated membranes. After three days, the membranes treated with buckyballs had on average 20 colony forming units, the method by which bacterial colonies are counted.

"In contrast, the number of bacterial colonies on the untreated membrane was too numerous to count," Chae said.

Chae also found that the presence of the buckyballs inhibited respiration, or the ability of the bacteria to use oxygen to fuel its activities.

"As the concentration of buckyballs increased, so did the inhibition of respiration," Chae said. "This respiratory inhibition and anti-attachment suggests that this nanoparticle may be useful as an anti-fouling agent to prevent the biofouling of membranes or other surfaces."

 

Gunsch said the mechanisms involved are not well-understood.

 

What's the Opportunity Space here? I can envision several.

 

 

Here is one  for  Ukraine,  whose GDP largely depends on steel exports.Ukraine's economic faith could now be saved by its own scientists. The oligarchs who control the steel and pipe production industry and whose fortunes are going down the tubes (pun fully intended) due to low steel demand and falling commodity prices, should team up with their own Ukrainian scientists, who have been largely ingnored by Ukrainian industry. These scientists from Kharkiv, who developed hydrated fullerenes should partner  up with surface science specialists and coatings specialists (which Ukraine has no shortage of) say, at the Patton Institute in Kyiv and approach these oligarchs to fund and fast-track research into developing biofilm-resistent pipes for water and  especially oil, which they could sell all over the world. 

Being realistic, this technology won't be supported or taken up any time soon by the incumbant steel industry and pipe manufacturers, like the Mittels and Victor Pinchuk's of the world, who depend on pipes aging and rusting away so that they can replace them with new ones.This a disruptive thechnology will likely be pushed quietly  by some "outsider" in a new market niche, under the radar screen of the big market players.

UPDATE: Oct 11, 2009.

I've just returned from Ukraine and a Fullerene Water Solution will be available on the Ukrainian Market as a food supplement within weeks. Contact me if you wish more information

When will the recession / depression end? Part 22 Why we are likely to see a protracted L-shaped or double dip W-Shaped Recession?

Collapsed container traffic  and falling electricity demand

 

 

GDP growth or collapse is a poor early warning indicator for the economy. Figures are historic -they are released several months (usually 3 months) after the fact and the are then usually revised. As politicians are fond of saying, we've seen a global symmetric  (I'd argue.. asymmetric) collapse in GDP.

 

Here are the recently released GDP numbers for the 4th quarter of 2008.

 

Canada (-3.4%)

The EU (-5.9%)

The USA (-6.2%)

Japan (-12.7%)

 

Everyone is expecting even worse numbers in Q1 2009.

 

One proxy indicator that I follow is global trade. Back in 2006 and 2007 I was  looking for early signals/signs of impending collapse and now I’m tracking trade to determine if the economy will be in a protracted holding pattern (like the lost decade in the 1990’s in Japan, although it should be called the lost 2 decades) or will we see some resemblence of any recovery of international trade any time soon?

 

Bulk goods and container traffic is a good leading 6 month proxy for the economy. Manufacturers order raw materials in anticipation of manufacturing growth. In America, the container traffic in Long Beach California (the busiest port in the USA)  totally collapsed in 2007, long before there were any signs that the economy had peaked. Container traffic, dry and wet bulk goods traffic and shipping rates have been down and flat ever since-at historic low levels. If you use these indicators, there is ABSOLUTELY NO RECOVERY  in sight for 2009. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is showing some signs of life, but it's a type #1 error, also known in academics as a false positive. Suppliers are using some creaive accounting by attempting to take their goods "off their books" shifting them into the F.O.B catagory, but these raw materials, assembled cars and even oil supplies are just sitting inside container ships in ports, awaiting for commodity prices to increase. (hat tip to Zavis Zeman for alerting us to this tactic)

Power consumption is another good indicator to watch that signals the health of the economy. (the same is equally true for industrial use of coal, gas and oil, if you can find the data.)

 

Historically, electricity consumption and GDP growth are closely coupled, although there is still debate in the academic literature on what causes what. Does electricity use drive GDP growth or the other way around.Energy conservation efforts are starting to confound the data too.  When I can find it, I use monthly and annual power consumption data as a proxy indicator for economic recovery. The logic is simple. If you are not running a second or third shift, or if you have closed down your factory, then energy use will drop long before we see any GDP changes in government statistics. Likewise, on the way up, energy consumption should be flat and then start to slowly rise before we see any effects in GDP numbers.

China and India have become the world's manufacturers, so their health is a proxy indicator for global economic health. Both China and Indiahave reported drastic energy consumption drops in their industrial sectors. Starting in late 2007 and right through 2008,

China reported a drop in consumption, although relative year-over-year, power consumption was positive, still growing but at a much slower decelerated pace. As the global financial crisis began to take a toll on the real economy, power demand plummeted in China, as enterprises shut down or cut back working hours in response to moribund business orders.

"Power consumption in China grew 5.23 percent in 2008, 9.57 percentage points lower than a year ago and the slowest in eight years, according to Chinese data. The slowing demand was mainly contributed by the industrial sector.  About 3.43 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity was used by the industry last year, up 3.83 percent from a year earlier, slower than the overall social power consumption growth rate for the first time.  Electricity used by the service industry and the rural and urban residents continued rapid growth, as the group was less affected by the financial crisis."

In India, power consumption grew 13.28 % in 2007 (a combination of industrial use, consumer household use, and village electrification) and dropped off the cliff by 16.91 percent in 2008, worse then in China.

 

Walter Derzko

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related Recession / Depression Posts

When will the recession / depression end? Part 21 Darker days ahead , but not for all

When will the recession / depression end? Part 20 The Dog that Didn't Bark; Economists say don't pay attention to us

When will the recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

When will the recession/ depression end? Part 18 Hormones and Boom and Bust Cycles

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 17 Recap from the World Economic Forum in Davos

When will the recession end? Part 16 It's all over, well sort of.

When will the recession end? Part 15 Year-end predictions for 2009 starting to come true

When will the recession end? Part 14 Four options for America's race to the bottom

When will the recession end? Part 13 Thirteen economic questions that economists can't answer

When will the recession end? Part 12 Bad times are good times for startups

When will the recession end? Part 11 Bank of Canada optimism

When will the recession end? Part 10, The Conformity Trap or Don't count on your economist for advise

When will the recession end? Part 9 Humor will signal recession /depression bottom

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will this recession end?

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

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Why sustainable power is unsustainable?- advanced "renewable" technologies are too often based upon non-renewable resources

Recessions and depressions are great periods in history because paradoxes and contradictions seem to stand out even more. The big one facing society in the next two decades is the obvious economic one-everything in our conventional economic paradigm is based on annual, year-over-year growth, yet we appear to be entering a period of "peak resources" ranging from peak water, to peak oil, peak gas and most importantly for business, peak minerals-facts that the green eco-movement often ignores, or is hiding in the closet-the dirty green secret.

A story earlier this month in New Scientist, covered a Financial Times conference on energy and sustainability in London England and it concludes:

"Renewable energy needs to become a lot more renewable...[..]... Although scientists are agreed that we must cut carbon emissions from transport and electricity generation to prevent the globe's climate becoming hotter, and more unpredictable, the most advanced "renewable" technologies are too often based upon non-renewable resources, attendees heard. Supratik Guha of IBM told the conference that sales of silicon solar cells are booming, with 2008 being the first year that the silicon wafers for solar cells outstripped those used for microelectronic devices. But although silicon is the most abundant element in the Earth's crust after oxygen, it makes relatively inefficient cells that struggle to compete with electricity generated from fossil fuels. And the most advanced solar-cell technologies rely on much rarer materials than silicon [-that being indium.]"

[..]...Peak Indium? 10 year of global supply left?

"The efficiency of solar cells is measured as a percentage of light energy they convert to electricity. Silicon solar cells finally reached 25% in late December. But multi-junction solar cells can achieve efficiencies greater than 40%.

 

Although touted as the future of solar power, those and most other multiple-junction cells owe their performance to the rare metal indium, which is far from abundant. There are fewer than 10 indium-containing minerals, and none present in significant deposits – in total the metal accounts for a paltry 0.25 parts per million of the Earth's crust.

 

Most of the rare and expensive element is used to manufacture LCD screens, an industry that has driven indium prices to $1000 per kilogram in recent years. Estimates that did not factor in an explosion in indium-containing solar panels reckon we have only a 10 year supply of it left.

If power from the Sun is to become a major source of electricity, solar panels would have to cover huge areas, making an alternative to indium essential."

Could we see resource wars, {which the US military has extensive plans for}, material rationing or outright prohibition like we saw with alcohol in the 1930's? Will we have to select between indium for our cell phones, flat screen TV's or solar cells? Will nanotech breakthroughs come to the rescue? -will an exotic combination of fullerenes, graphenes and carbon nanotubes be the substitution answer? The nanotech race for an alternative is on.--Walter Derzko

 

They also cover peak Platinum

"The dream of the hydrogen economy faces similar challenges, said Paul Adcock of UK firm Intelligent Energy. A cheap way to generate hydrogen has so far proved elusive. New approaches, such as using bacterial enzymes to "split" water, have a long way to go before they are commercially viable. So far, fuel cells are still the most effective way to turn the gas into electricity. But these mostly rely on expensive platinum to catalyse the reaction.

The trouble is, platinum makes indium appear super-abundant. It is present in the Earth's crust at just 0.003 parts per billion and is priced in $ per gram, not per kilogram. Estimates say that, if the 500 million vehicles in use today were fitted with fuel cells, all the world's platinum would be exhausted within 15 years. Unfortunately platinum-free fuel cells are still a long way from the test track. A nickel-catalysed fuel cell developed at  Wuhan University, China, has a maximum output only around 10% of that a platinum catalyst can offer.

A new approach announced yesterday demonstrates that carbon nanotubes could be more effective, as well as cheaper, than platinum. But again it will be many years before platinum-free fuel cells become  a commercial prospect."

Also , could Lithium shortages in 10-15 years  impede future electric car deployment?

 

Let’s look at the  metal gallium, which along with indium is used to make the next generation of semiconductor materials-indium gallium arsenide for a new generation of solar cells that promise to be up to twice as efficient as conventional designs. Reserves of both metals are disputed, but in a 2007 report Renï  Kleijn, from LeidenUniversity in the Netherlands, concludes that current reserves "would not allow a substantial contribution of these cells" to the future supply of solar electricity. He estimates gallium and indium will probably contribute to less than 1 per cent of all future solar cells - a limitation imposed purely by a lack of raw material."

Other projections I've seen-antimony could run out in 10 years; Silver in 10 years, hafnium in 10-15 years and tribium by 2012 or 4-5 years. Looking for the next geopolitical flash point? The US imports 90% of its rare metals and materials from China.

(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol 103, p 1209), "Virgin stocks of several metals appear inadequate to sustain the modern 'developed world' quality of life for all of Earth's people under contemporary technology."

 

I've always wondered what minerals are hidden in the mountains of Afghanistan.... "It is widely acknowledged that one of the key motives for civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1998 and 2002 was the riches to be had from the country's mineral resources, including tantalum mines - the biggest in Africa. The war coincided with a surge in the price of the metal caused by the increasing popularity of mobile phones." (New Scientist, 7 April 2001, p 46).

 

 

Ever wonder why China is hoarding every gram of our high tech electronic garbage?  It's buying up high-tech scrap to extract metals that are key to its developing industries.

 

One good thing about this recession / depression shakeout-there will be far fewer firms fighting and scrambling over those increasingly precious resources-buying us a few extra years of transition time.

 

The lessons here?...Digging minerals out of the ground will no longer automatically confer economic advantage {Canada, Africa, Brazil and China Listen Up}, instead structuring "smart materials" in novel ways will.--Walter Derzko 

 

 

See full story here and image  

 

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Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

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