Smart Economy

When will the Recession End? Part 143 Russian website says Medvedev's "modernization" bid unlikely to succeed

Russian website says Medvedev's "modernization" bid unlikely to succeed; Anonymous. BBC Monitoring Former Soviet Union. London: Feb 4, 2011.

Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal website, Moscow, in Russian 3 Feb 11/BBC Monitoring

Text of report by anti-Kremlin Russian current affairs website Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal on 3 February

[Article by Aleksandr Golts: "Innovation - queen of the fields?" (Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal Online)]

Last year's US visit by Dmitriy Medvedev for modernization and innovation experience could not help but evoke an association with the unforgettable visit by Nikita Sergeyevich Khruschev to the prominent American corn grower. And the attempts to forcefully compel the captains of Russian industry to engage in innovations are becoming ever more reminiscent of the party's economic decrees on introducing the "queen of the fields" on the vast Russian expanses.

Something similar took place in recent days in Arzamas. The acting president rattled his sabers and demonstrated his managerial anger. It turns out that -oh, horrors! - the heads of the state corporations had assumed a casual attitude towards the instruction of the nominal head of state, issued as long as a year ago. Instead of programmes for development and introduction of innovations, some presented formal excuses, while most of the state corporations ignored Medvedev's demands altogether. "The main problem consists of the fact that the corporation management - and also the profile-related ministries in Government - still do not view this task as being the top priority," Medvedev concluded. And he sternly demanded that they prepare proposals on disciplinary responsibility of specific managers within two week's time.

And so that everyone understands that the place-holder is seriously inclined, the head of the United Aviation Construction Corporation (OAK), Aleksey Fedorov, was dismissed for having a careless attitude towards innovation. The decision is a suspicious one. We may recall that one of the main projects of the OAK is the development of a fifth generation fighter jet. That is, a plane which in principle must represent the combination of tens, if not hundreds, of the most varied innovations. It would seem, this is an either-or situation. Either the fighter jet does not contain any breakthrough technologies, or the manager was fired for something else entirely (disruption of deliveries of planes to Jordan and problems with the recently submitted presidential airliner are cited as possible versions), and the innovations were just an excuse.

A stenogram of the meeting leads us to believe that, most likely, it was the latter. Heads of state corporations were being panned not for the lack of some specific work in the field of high technologies. The president gave them the dressing down because they did not meet up to certain purely formal indicators. For example, by volumes of financing R&D (despite the fact that most of the money comes from the state budget), or by number of patents. Or perhaps the reason for the dissatisfaction was the lack of "innovation commissioners" -special supervisors, who answer for seeking out and introducing high technologies.

There is no doubt that, by the next meeting, the chastised directors will qualitatively improve their indicators. There will be mass financing of R&D, which will not bring any results. Ultimately, is it not all the same by what article you cut up the budget, if the system is arranged in such a way that the expenditures are borne by the state, while the income is privatized? New high-paid positions will appear. Even the number of patents will increase. After all, if we wanted to, we could patent even an innovative shape of a donut hole. And the fact that there will be no technological breakthroughs -that we will learn a bit later. Under a different leader, who, I suspect, will not be so devoted to the idea of modernization.

The meeting participants were stubbornly quiet about the main reason for the anti-innovative mindset of the leaders of industry. Medvedev's predecessor had selected such a model of organization of industry, which in principle contradicts any development. In essence, all of these vertically constructed state corporations are monopolies. They have no competitors. They have in fact handed over production of consumer goods to foreign producers (meanwhile, today it is specifically civilian commodity production that is the main source of high technologies). The heads of the Russian state corporations are convinced that state consumers will take whatever they produce, without any innovations. Modernization, as the classic taught us, inevitably leads to decay. The exceptions - such as Rosatom (which has a colossal Soviet stockpile and at the expense of which it can compete on the foreign market) -are merely a confirmation of this rule.

Nikita Sergeyevich has gone down in Russian folklore as the "corn grower." Dmitriy Anatolyevich has every chance of being remembered as the "innovator."

Credit: Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal website, Moscow, in Russian 3 Feb 11 

related links:

1)     Thirty Seven (37) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime)  Similar conditions and circumstances existed just before the collapse of the Soviet Union 20 years ago.  

2)    Is Ukraine Hitching Its Economic Cart to Collapsing Horse? Russia?  

3)   When will the Recession End? Part 133 Why Russia doesn't fit into BRIC

4)  When will the recession end ? Part 134 What could trigger a Global Double Dip Recession in 2011? Russia

5)   When will the Recession End? Part 139 Russia admits it's dead and falling apart

6)  When will the Recession End? Part 140 Who's next after Egypt? Russian editorial says Russia, Kazakhstan may be hit by "Tunisian syndrome"

7) When will the Recession End? Part 141 Growth of world hydrocarbon prices can no longer help Russia - Editorial expects budget deficits to continue despite rising oil prices

Walter Derzko

 

IBM's five smart innovations that will change our lives in the next five years

ARMONK, NY - 27 Dec 2010: Today IBM (NYSE: IBM) formally unveiled the fifth annual "Next Five in Five" – a list of innovations that have the potential to change the way people work, live and play over the next five years:

• You'll beam up your friends in 3-D

• Batteries will breathe air to power our devices

• You won’t need to be a scientist to save the planet

• Your commute will be personalized

• Computers will help energize your city

see YouTube clip: http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33304.wss

The Next Five in Five is based on market and societal trends expected to transform our lives, as well as emerging technologies from IBM’s Labs around the world that can make these innovations possible. 

In the next five years, technology innovations will change people’s lives in the following ways: 

You'll beam up your friends in 3-D with holography chat

In the next five years, 3-D interfaces – like those in the movies – will let you interact with 3-D holograms of your friends in real time. Movies and TVs are already moving to 3-D, and as 3-D and holographic cameras get more sophisticated and miniaturized to fit into cell phones, you will be able to interact with photos, browse the Web and chat with your friends in entirely new ways. 

Scientists are working to improve video chat to become holography chat - or "3-D telepresence." The technique uses light beams scattered from objects and reconstructs them a picture of that object, a similar technique to the one human eyes use to visualize our surroundings. 

You'll be able to see more than your friends in 3-D too. Just as a flat map of the earth has distortion at the poles that makes flight patterns look indirect, there is also distortion of data – which is becoming greater as digital information becomes “smarter” – like your digital photo album. Photos are now geo-tagged, the Web is capable of synching information across devices and computer interfaces are becoming more natural. 

Scientists at IBM Research are working on new ways to visualize 3-D data, working on technology that would allow engineers to step inside of a designs of everything from buildings to software programs, running simulations of how diseases spread across an interactive 3-D globes, and visualizing trends happening around the world on Twitter – all in real time and with little to no distortion. 

Batteries will breathe air to power our devices

Ever wish you could make your lap top battery last all day without needing a charge? Or what about a cell phone that powers up by being carried in your pocket? 

In the next five years, scientific advances in transistors and battery technology will allow your devices last about 10 times longer than they do today. And better yet, in some cases, batteries may disappear altogether in smaller devices. 

Instead of the heavy lithium-ion batteries used today, scientists are working on batteries that use the air we breath to react with energy-dense metal, eliminating a key inhibitor to longer lasting batteries. If successful, the result will be a lightweight, powerful and rechargeable battery capable of powering for everything from electric cars to consumer devices. 

But what if we could eliminate batteries all together?  

By rethinking the basic building block of electronic devices, the transistor, IBM is aiming to reduce the amount of energy per transistor to less than 0.5 volts. With energy demands this low, we might be able to lose the battery altogether in some devices like mobile phones or e-readers. 

The result would be battery-free electronic devices that can be charged using a technique called energy scavenging.  Some wrist watches use this today – they require no winding and charge based on the movement of your arm.  The same concept could be used to charge mobile phones for example – just shake and dial. 

You won’t need to be a scientist to save the planet

While you may not be a physicist, you are a walking sensor. In five years, sensors in your phone, your car, your wallet and even your tweets will collect data that will give scientists a real-time picture of your environment. You'll be able to contribute this data to fight global warming, save endangered species or track invasive plants or animals that threaten ecosystems around the world. In the next five years, a whole class of "citizen scientists" will emerge, using simple sensors that already exist to create massive data sets for research. 

Simple observations such as when the first thaw occurs in your town, when the mosquitoes first appear, if there’s no water running where a stream should be - all this is valuable data that scientists don’t have in large sets today. Even your laptop can be used as a sensor to detect seismic activity. If properly employed and connected to a network of other computers, your laptop can help map out the aftermath of earthquake quickly, speeding up the work of emergency responders and potentially saving lives. 

IBM recently patented a technique that enables a system to accurately and precisely conduct post-event analysis of seismic events, such as earthquakes, as well as provide early warnings for tsunamis, which can follow earthquakes. The invention also provides the ability to rapidly measure and analyze the damage zone of an earthquake to help prioritize emergency response needed following an earthquake. 

The company is also contributing mobile phone "apps" that allow typical citizens to contribute invaluable data to causes, like improving the quality of drinking water or reporting noise pollution. Already, an app called Creek Watch allows citizens to take a snapshot of a creek or stream, answer three simple questions about it and the data is automatically accessible by the local water authority. 

Your commute will be personalized

Imagine your commute with no jam-packed highways, no crowded subways, no construction delays and not having to worry about late for work. In the next five years, advanced analytics technologies will provide personalized recommendations that get commuters where they need to go in the fastest time. Adaptive traffic systems will intuitively learn traveler patterns and behavior to provide more dynamic travel safety and route information to travelers than is available today. 

IBM researchers are developing new models that will predict the outcomes of varying transportation routes to provide information that goes well beyond traditional traffic reports, after-the fact devices that only indicate where you are already located in a traffic jam, and web-based applications that give estimated travel time in traffic. 

Using new mathematical models and IBM’s predictive analytics technologies, the researchers will analyze and combine multiple possible scenarios that can affect commuters to deliver the best routes for daily travel, including many factors, such as traffic accidents, commuter's location, current and planned road construction, most traveled days of the week, expected work start times, local events that may impact traffic, alternate options of transportation such as rail or ferries, parking availability and weather. 

For example, combining predictive analytics with real-time information about current travel congestion from sensors and other data, the system could recommend better ways to get to a destination, such as how to get to a nearby mass transit hub, whether the train is predicted to be on time, and whether parking is predicted to be available at the train station. New systems can learn from regular travel patterns where you are likely to go and then integrate all available data and prediction models to pinpoint the best route. 

Computers will help energize your city

Innovations in computers and data centers are enabling the excessive heat and energy that they give off to do things like heat buildings in the winter and power air conditioning in the summer. Can you imagine if the energy poured into the world's data centers could in turn be recycled for a city's use. 

Up to 50 percent of the energy consumed by a modern data center goes toward air cooling. Most of the heat is then wasted because it is just dumped into the atmosphere. New technologies, such as novel on-chip water-cooling systems developed by IBM, the thermal energy from a cluster of computer processors can be efficiently recycled to provide hot water for an office or houses. 

A pilot project in Switzerland involving a computer system fitted with the technology is expected to save up to 30 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year the equivalent of an 85 percent carbon footprint reduction. A novel network of microfluidic capillaries inside a heat sink is attached to the surface of each chip in the computer cluster, which allows water to be piped to within microns of the semiconductor material itself. By having water flow so close to each chip, heat can be removed more efficiently. Water heated to 60 °C is then passed through a heat exchanger to provide heat that is delivered elsewhere.

For more information, please visit www.ibm.com/press/5in52010

Note: Registered journalists and bloggers can download broadcast-quality b-roll and other "Next 5 in 5" video from http://www.thenewsmarket.com/ibm [registration available online] 

 

 

New Princeton search method traces origins and spread of ideas

October 21, 2010

Princeton computer scientists have developed a new way of tracing the origins and spread of ideas, a technique that could make it easier to gauge the influence of notable scholarly papers, buzz-generating news stories and other information sources.

The method relies on computer algorithms to analyze how language morphs over time within a group of documents — whether they are research papers on quantum physics or blog posts about politics — and to determine which documents were the most influential.

“The point is being able to manage the explosion of information made possible by computers and the Internet,” said David Blei, an assistant professor of computer science at Princeton and the lead researcher on the project. “We’re trying to make sense of how concepts move around. Maybe you want to know who coined a certain term like ‘quark,’ or search old news stories to find out where the first 1960s antiwar protest took place.”

Blei said the new search technique might one day be used by historians, political scientists and other scholars to study how ideas arise and spread.

While search engines such as Google and Bing help people sort through the haystack of information on the Web, their results are based on a complex mix of criteria, some of which — such as number of links and visitor traffic — may not fully reflect the influence of a document.

Scholarly journals traditionally quantify the impact of a paper by measuring how often it is cited by other papers, but other collections of documents, such as newspapers, patent claims and blog posts, provide no such means of measuring their influence.

Instead of focusing on citations, Blei and Sean Gerrish, a Princeton doctoral student in computer science, developed a statistical model that allows computers to analyze the actual text of documents to see how the language changes over time. Influential documents in a field will establish new concepts and terms that change the patterns of words and phrases used in later works.

“There might be a paper that introduces the laser, for instance, which is then mentioned in subsequent articles,” Gerrish said. “The premise is that one article introduces the language that will be adopted and used in the future.”

Previous methods developed by the researchers for tracking how language changes accounted for how a group of documents influenced a subsequent group of documents, but were unable to isolate the influence of individual documents. For instance, those models can analyze all the papers in a certain science journal one year and follow the influence they had on the papers in the journal the following year, but they could not say if a certain paper introduced groundbreaking ideas.

To address this, Blei and Garrish developed their algorithm to recognize the contribution of individual papers and used it to analyze several decades of reports published in three science journals: Nature, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and the Association for Computational Linguistics Anthology. Because they were working with scientific journals, they could compare their results with the citation counts of the papers, the traditional method of measuring scholarly impact.

They found that their results agreed with citation-based impact about 40 percent of the time. In some cases, they discovered papers that had a strong influence on the language of science, but were not often cited. In other cases, they found that papers that were cited frequently did not have much impact on the language used in a field.

They found no citations, for instance, for an influential column published in Nature in 1972 that correctly predicted an expanded role of the National Science Foundation in funding graduate science education.

On the other hand, their model gave a low influence score to a highly cited article on a new linguistics research database that was published in 1993 in the Association for Computational Linguistics Anthology. “That paper introduced a very important resource, but did not present paradigm-changing ideas,” Blei said. “Consequently, our language-based approach could not correctly identify its impact.”

Blei said their model was not meant as a replacement for citation counts but as an alternative method for measuring influence that might be extended to finding influential news stories, websites, and legal and historical documents.

“We are also exploring the idea that you can find patterns in how language changes over time,” he said. “Once you’ve identified the shapes of those patterns, you might be able to recognize something important as it develops, to predict the next big idea before it’s gotten big.”

Adapted from materials provided by Princeton University

see http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-10/pues-nsm102010.php

Walter Derzko

 

Ukrainians Flew First -2 decades before the Wright Brothers

When asked, every school child in the west will undoubtedly tell you that the Wright Brothers were the first to fly. Well, they would be half right. The Wright Brothers were the first to fly in the western world but few Ukrainians and even fewer westerns know that they were not the very first in the world  to perfect man-made flight. That aeronautic breakthrough and honor goes to a Ukrainian inventor Alexander Mozhayskyi, and predates the Dec 17, 1903 Wright Brother’s attempt by a full two decades.

This was one of the historical curiosities that was highlighted at the 2010 Bloor West Village Ukrainian Festival in Toronto this past weekend.  One of the most popular displays that garnished the most visitor attention was the collection from the national historical museum in Kyiv, the world heritage site of Kyiv’s St. Sofiya cathedral and others, that featured vignettes of Ukrainian history.  Produced by Taras Hukalo, assisted by Victor Glasko -this quote caught most people’s attention: 

“In 1876 ALEXANDER MOZHAYSKYI flew 20 meters in steam-powered heavier than air aircraft of his own design in Voronovytsia, Vinnytsia region, Ukraine. He flew again twice in 1886. That is why Ukrainians call Voronovytsia the cradle of aviation.”

One article written in Ukraine’s Castles called “Voronovystia’s Wings   opines:  “Disputes about the question of who invented the first aircraft, Alexander Mozhayskyi or the Wright Brothers,  can make for fascinating fireside chats and will never be settled.  However, Ukrainians keep calling the Voronovysia village in Vinnytsia the cradle of aviation. The fact remains that in 1876, a strange machine built by Mozhayskyi , took off and flew in the Ukrainian skies.”

So Ukraine has a century old tradition of avionics.

Ukrainians and westerners are likely more familiar with Ihor Sikorsky. Hukalo’s display offers the following about Sikorsky:  “Loosing friends in the midst of rising communist terror and mounting oppression, in 1919, after building the world’s first four engine bomber and other aircraft for the Tsar, Ihor Sikorsky , immigrated from Kyiv, Ukraine to USA. In 1923 he established the first aircraft manufacturing company in the world and created the world’s first commercially produced helicopters, taking the lead in the world of design and manufacture of military, civil, commercial helicopters and fixed wing aircraft. Sikorsky’s helicopters are reputed to be the best in the world. “  Torontonians will remember Sikorsky helicopters, that were used to finish off the top sections of the CN Tower.

The other jewel in Ukrainian industrial aviation crown are Antonov and Motor Sich.

Hukalo & Glasko add:  “Ukraine is one of just nine countries worldwide currently designing and building transport and top class civil aircraft. One plane, the Ukrainian AN-225 “Mriya”, NATO designation “Cossack”, is the largest aircraft in the world. General designer Petro Balabuyev said the Mriya can lift a payload of 250 metric tons in its huge belly or outside firmly secured to the top of its fuselage. Further more, despite its heavy weight (628,315 lbs. empty), with its 32 wheels it is capable of landing and taking off from sodden grass and /or ice covered fields.”

“The Antonov Design Center built the AN-225 in Kyiv, Ukraine where it also produces the second largest plane in the world, the AN-124 “Ruslan”. Involved in producing the Antonov Mriya and Ruslan’s engines model D-18T, in Zaporizhia, Ukraine, is Sich Motors. Founded in 1907, it is one of the largest enterprises in the world, the only one in Ukraine, manufacturing airplane and helicopter engines as well as industrial gas turbines.”

But Ukraine’s pre-eminence in aviation may be at risk from Russia.

On Sept 18, 2010 Interfax reported that “Ukraine is ready to offer Russia a number of joint ventures in various fields.”, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych said  during a meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev last week, the eight since Yanukowych came to power.

One such proposal is Zaporizhia-based OJSC Motor Sich, who  plans to set up a joint venture with the Defense Ministry of Russia in Gatchina in Leningrad region by the end of 2010 to manufacture at least 100  TV3-117VMA-SBM1V helicopter engines per year .

Red flags and alarm bells should be ringing right across Ukraine.. Politicians in Ukraine who have an interest in protecting Ukraine’s strategic national interests should be protesting this Party of Regions decision at all costs. There is no economic benefit to Ukraine in this JV, since Russia brings nothing to the table. Most importantly, Russia will gain access to and steal world-class Ukrainian engine design know-how and intellectual property, which Russia desperately needs to fulfill its military contracts with India and China to supply future unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV’s) and next generation helicopters.

The communist government in China is using a similar tactics to Russia, trying to pressure US auto manufacturers in establish JV’s in China if they want to sell electric cars to the Chinese. The USA fears losing their electric battery technology know-how to China (Wall Street Journal Sept 16 2010). Ukraine should have similar fears about aviation and Russian attempts to muscle in.

Walter Derzko is a Senior Fellow at the Strategic Innovation Lab (S-Lab) at OCAD University in Toronto and teaches at the MA program in Strategic Foresight and Innovation (SFI) at OCAD University in Toronto.

Study: Skilled immigrants boost US innovation

A study published in the latest issue of the Journal of Labor Economics finds that highly skilled temporary immigrants boost technological innovation in the U.S. without displacing U.S.-born workers in the process.

The study, by William Kerr of the Harvard Business School and William Lincoln of the University of Michigan, looked at fluctuations over the last 15 years in the number of immigrants admitted to the U.S. under the H-1B visa program, which governs immigration of highly skilled temporary workers. The researchers found that when more H-1B visas are granted, the number of U.S. patent applications filed by people with Chinese and Indian names increased substantially in cities and firms dependent upon the program. Much of that increase can be attributed to H-1B immigrants.

Meanwhile, the number of applications filed by people with Anglo-Saxon names—a proxy for U.S.-born workers—did not vary with fluctuations in H-1B admissions.

"We conclude that total invention increased with higher [H-1B] admissions primarily through the direct contributions of immigrant inventors," the authors write. "We are also able to rule out displacement [of native workers]."

The study used data gathered from 1995 to 2008. Patent applications do not record inventors' nationalities, so the researchers used an algorithm to determine probable nationalities based on the inventors' names. They then compared those data with the number of H-1B visas granted in a given year. The number of visas fluctuated widely over the study period, due to changes in a government-mandated cap on the program. At its lowest, visas were capped at 65,000 per year, and peaked at 195,000.

"This study quantifies the impact of changes in H-1B admission levels on the pace and character of U.S. invention …," the authors write. "We hope that this assessment aids policy makers in their current decisions about appropriate admission rates in the future."

Source: William R. Kerr and William F. Lincoln, "The Supply Side of Innovation: H‐1B Visa Reforms and U.S. Ethnic Invention." Journal of Labor Economics 28:3 (July 2010).

Walter Derzko; The Opportunity Clinic, Smart Economy, Toronto

Biological imaging with 4D ultrafast electron microscopy

Here's another significant microscopy advance, the second one within a single week--Walter Derzko.

Biological imaging with 4D ultrafast electron microscopy, published in PNAS Early Edition for 17 May 2010 by David J. Flannigan, Brett Barwick, and Ahmed H. Zewail1 + Author Affiliations

Physical Biology Center for Ultrafast Science and Technology, Arthur Amos Noyes Laboratory of Chemical Physics, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 Contributed by Ahmed H. Zewail, April 26, 2010 (sent for review April 17, 2010)

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/05/13/1005653107.abstract?etoc

Abstract

Advances in the imaging of biological structures with transmission electron microscopy continue to reveal information at the nanometer length scale and below.  The images obtained are static, i.e., time-averaged over seconds, and the weak contrast is usually enhanced through sophisticated specimen preparation techniques and/or improvements in electron optics and methodologies.  Here we report the application of the technique of photon-induced near-field electron microscopy (PINEM) to imaging of biological specimens with femtosecond (fs) temporal resolution.

In PINEM, the biological structure is exposed to single-electron packets and simultaneously irradiated with fs laser pulses that are coincident with the electron pulses in space and time.  By electron energy-filtering those electrons that gained photon energies, the contrast is enhanced only at the surface of the structures involved.  This method is demonstrated here in imaging of protein vesicles and whole cells of Escherichia coli, both are not absorbing the photon energy, and both are of low-Z contrast.  It is also shown that the spatial location of contrast enhancement can be controlled via laser polarization, time resolution, and tomographic tilting.  The high-magnification PINEM imaging provides the nanometer scale and the fs temporal resolution.  The potential of applications is discussed and includes the study of antibodies and immunolabeling within the cell.

Key words Evanescent nanoscale biostructure

Footnotes 1To whom correspondence should be addressed.  E-mail: zewail@caltech.edu. Author contributions: D.J.F., B.B., and A.H.Z. designed research, performed research, contributed new reagents/analytic tools, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.  The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/05/13/1005653107.abstract?etoc

Economist debate: Do governments boost or hinder innovation?

The Economist magazine hosts a series of debates on current questions and issues. The current debate expores the timely question-Do governments help or hinder innovation? As of today the public vote is split evenly 50% for PRO and 50% for CON. What do you think?

Here are the details:

Does government help or hinder innovation?

Live dates: March 22nd-28th

Current round: Opening

Dear Reader,

Does government intervention stifle creative thought or does it play a pivotal role in bringing new technologies to life? Our debate starts today and our speakers have posted their opening arguments. Now we want to hear what you have to say.

Moderator's comments
What is the right role for government in spurring innovation? One side often argues that governments inevitably get it wrong when they get too involved: picking the wrong technology winners, say, or ploughing subsidies into politically popular projects rather than the most deserving ones. The other rebuts that given the grave global challenges we face today, governments need to do much more to support innovation.

This time, both sides have some exciting new arguments that will breathe life into this age-old debate. So please don't sit on the fence—tell us which side you stand on and why.

Pro: Amar Bhidé
"Entrepreneurial leaps into the dark are best sustained by great caution in expanding the scope of government intervention." Read more

Con: David Sandalow
"Governments spur innovation. Governments shape innovation. Many of the most important innovations in recent decades grew from the work of governments." Read more
==========================================

Current round: Rebuttals

Dear Reader,

Our debate on innovation has got off to a fiery start. Our speakers have posted their rebuttal statements and now we want to hear what you've got to say. Get involved and tell us where you stand.

Moderator's comments
Despite minor gestures of conciliation, it is clear that neither debater is really willing to concede much ground. The battle lines are drawn. Our combatants are intellectually clear on their differences, and not afraid to attack the other side's weaknesses. Which side do you believe has the upper hand? Cast your vote now.

Pro: Amar Bhidé
"Revolutionary advances—Darwin's research on evolution, for example—occurred even when government funding for scientific research was minimal." Read more

Con: David Sandalow
"Government functions such as basic research, education and patent protection are central to innovation. Would innovation work best with less of such things? Quite the contrary." Read more

================================

Current round: Closing

Dear Reader,

Today our speakers have posted their closing statements in our debate on innovation, making this your last chance to have your say. Get involved and tell us which way you're voting and why.

Moderator's comments
Our debate is drawing to a close, and it is running neck and neck. The side in favour of the motion started off on the back foot, but has gained enough ground to keep this an unusually close affair. The side opposite has lost a bit of the initial starting advantage, but remains just as well positioned to pass the post first. Both debaters have ginned up their final arguments in the hopes of emerging the winner. Cast your vote now, as this debate promises to be a nail-biter. Read more

Pro: Amar Bhidé
"People must see their government play the role of an even-handed referee rather than be a dispenser of rewards or even a judge of economic merit or contribution. Picking winners—this technology or that developer—makes us all losers." Read more

Con: David Sandalow
"Government has unique capabilities and a full toolbox for helping spur the innovative process. There may be times when government should do less, but there will never be a time when it should do the 'least'." Read more

This is your final opportunity to post your comments and vote on The Economist online. You can also discuss the issue on our Facebook page, or stay updated via Twitter.

Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran
Debate Moderator
Correspondent
The Economist

Current voting

Pro 50%

Con 50%

Debate Schedule

March 26th
Closing statements

March 28th
Winner announcement

Nanoscale SiO2 liquid glass spray makes cleaning products obsolete

Turkish scientists have developed a smart nano-scale thick, spray-on liquid glass called "SiO2 ultra-thin layering". 

According to the German manufacturer Nanopool (marketing hype notwithstanding)  and Physorg.com:

It is transparent, non-toxic, and can protect virtually any surface against almost any damage from hazards such as water, UV radiation, dirt, heat, and bacterial infections, making cleaning products unnecessary.  The invisible coating is also flexible and breathable, which makes it suitable for use on an enormous array of products.  According to the manufacturers, liquid glass has a long-lasting antibacterial effect because microbes landing on the surface cannot divide or replicate easily.

The liquid glass spray consists of almost pure silicon dioxide (silica, the normal compound in glass) extracted from quartz sand.  Water or ethanol is added, depending on the type of surface to be coated.  There are no additives, and the nanoscale glass coating bonds to the surface because of the quantum forces involved.

Liquid glass was invented in Turkey and the patent is held by Nanopool, a family-owned German company.  Research on the product was carried out at the Saarbrücken Institute for New Materials.  Nanopool is already in negotiations in the UK with a number of companies and with the National Health Service, with a view to its widespread adoption.

The liquid glass spray produces a water-resistant coating only around 100 nanometers (15-30 molecules) thick.  On this nanoscale the glass is highly flexible and breathable.  The coating is environmentally harmless and non-toxic, and easy to clean using only water or a simple wipe with a damp cloth.  It repels bacteria, water and dirt, and resists heat, UV light and even acids.  UK project manager with Nanopool, Neil McClelland, said soon almost every product you purchase will be coated with liquid glass.

Other organizations, such as a train company and a hotel chain in the UK, and a hamburger chain in Germany, are also testing liquid glass for a wide range of uses.  A year-long trial of the spray in a Lancashire hospital also produced "very promising" results for a range of applications including coatings for equipment, medical implants, catheters, sutures and bandages.  The war graves association in the UK is investigating using the spray to treat stone monuments and grave stones, since trials have shown the coating protects against weathering and graffiti.  Trials in Turkey are testing the product on monuments such as the Ataturk Mausoleum in Ankara.

The liquid glass coating is breathable, which means it can be used on plants and seeds.  Trials in vineyards have found spraying vines increases their resistance to fungal diseases, while other tests have shown sprayed seeds germinate and grow faster than untreated seeds, and coated wood is not attacked by termites.  Other vineyard applications include coating corks with liquid glass to prevent "corking" and contamination of wine.  The spray cannot be seen by the naked eye, which means it could also be used to treat clothing and other materials to make them stain-resistant.  McClelland said you can "pour a bottle of wine over an expensive silk shirt and it will come right off".

In the home, spray-on glass would eliminate the need for scrubbing and make most cleaning products obsolete.  Since it is available in both water-based and alcohol-based solutions, it can be used in the oven, in bathrooms, tiles, sinks, and almost every other surface in the home, and one spray is said to last a year.

Liquid glass spray is perhaps the most important nanotechnology product to emerge to date.  It will be available in DIY stores in Britain soon, with prices starting at around £5 ($8 US).  Other outlets, such as many supermarkets, may be unwilling to stock the products because they make enormous profits from cleaning products that need to be replaced regularly, and liquid glass would make virtually all of them obsolete.

More information: Nanopool: http://www.nanopool.eu/couk/index.htm

N.B Do we really want nondestructive coatings on all our products which bacteria can't degrade in our waste dumps?  or to throw away chemical cleaners? Tough dilemma?--Walter Derzko

Deciding if the glass is half full or half empty ? Are you a optimist or pessimist?

 

A brand new issue, an uncertain ambiguous item or an unexpected discovery falls on your desk on Monday morning. You need to quickly decide if it’s an immediate threat or opportunity for your organization that requires some type of action or if it’s a non-issue that can be ignored for the time being.

How do managers or entrepreneurs decide  that? Are there tradeoffs? People often use the half full or half empty glass visual as a metaphor to distinguish between the optimists (opportunity seekers) and pessimists (threat-focused or threat  avoiders). But it’s not as easy as it may seem at first. To decide which side of the ledger you fall under, try the following three steps

 

1) Trust your gut feel

Trust you initial gut feel. You will find that you are usually right. How do you feel about issue X? What does your instinct tell you about this new or emerging  issue or situation? Is it an opportunity or threat? Or possibly both?  In the Opportunity Clinic we typically observe four different responses:

-I feel positive and optimistic about this issue

-I sense a queasy feeling in the pit of your stomach. I’m  mostly negative and pessimistic about this. 

-or are you simply Indifferent or  passive?  I don’t see any current or future impacts on my business.

-or are you uncertain? It could be both a threat or challenge or an opportunity, depending on changing or uncertain circumstances

What’s your gut answer? __________________________

 

2) Try a more rational, critical analytical approach

Run through the list of 31 attributes and opposite matching pairs below in Table 1. On each line, circle an attribute (with a solid line) either on the left or right hand side of the table depending on how you view an issue. If you are unsure, draw a circle with a dotted line, to remind you to look for more information to reinforce your decision.

Count up the number of circles in each column to tell you if you view the issue as a threat or opportunity or possibly both.

Has you view changed from your gut feel decision in step 1 or has it been reinforced?

 

3) Repeat step 1 and 2 with others

Repeat step 1 and 2 with others in your department, division or other parts of the organization. What do external stakeholders say? What’s the general consensus on an emerging issue?

 

Table 1-How do you view an emerging issue? Attributes to tell you if the glass is half full or half empty?

	Opportunity	Threat
1	Positive	Negative
2	May gain, won’t lose	May lose,  won’t gain
3	Have means to resolve	Others constrain your actions
4	Qualified to act	Under-qualified to act
5	Have Autonomy	Resolution initiated by others
6	Resolution is likely	Resolution unlikely
7	Have choice whether to act	Must act, pressured
8	Future focused	Embedded in the past
9	Benefits come from acting vs inaction	Action brings no benefits
10	Stimulating
11	Can gain personal advantage	Personal loss from acting
12	Want association	Desire no association
13	Have responsibility	Not responsible
14	Issue is visible	Issue is visible
15	Many solutions vs one solution	One solution
16	Unique
17	Agree how to resolve	Conflict about  how to resolve; Resolution will be by chance
18	Easy to resolve	Difficult to resolve
19	Obvious Solution
20	Not crisis	Crisis
21	Urgent	Urgent; Not urgent
22		Neutral;  won’t loose or gain much
23	Future better if issue resolved	Future no better when resolved
24	Enduring vs Temporary
25	Pressure, vs No pressure
26	Stress-full	Stress-full
27	Success or failure visible	Success or failure visible
28	High priority	Ambiguous priorities
29	Consequences / implications for the future	Consequences / implications for the future
30	Challenge	Challenge
31	In direct competition with other opportunities

From the Opportunity Clinic © 1985-2009  (adapted from Discerning Threats and Opportunities from Jackson and Dutton 1988)

 

 

Walter Derzko,

Smart Economy, Toronto

 

 

 

 

 

Author of the soon-to-be published book- Opportunity 45 Scenarios to Drive Your Business in Challenging Times,  published by J. Wiley and Sons

ISBN13: 978-0-470-73761-3

ISBN10: 0-470-73761-1

Contact us about the Opportunity Clinic workshop and to invite Walter Derzko as a keynote speaker at your next event 

 

Why vaccines, antibiotics and antivirals are now obsolete- surpassed by hydrated fullerenes (C60 HYFN)

UPDATE: HYFNs have been approved for manufacturing as Fullerene Water Solution (FWS)  drink in Ukraine by Ministry of Health  as of Nov 2010. The first nanotech based health drink in the world. For information about availability  contact me by email.

 

When Buckyballs or Fullerenes (Carbon 60, which is a form of carbon, just like coal, activated charcoal, soot, diamonds or the lead in your pencil,) were first discovered several decades ago, they were lauded as a “silver bullet” in medicine. The hype quickly subsided when most researchers realized that both natural and synthetic fullerenes were not very water soluble, hence they only saw weak medical effects. But a team of Ukrainian researchers persisted and a decade ago, they discovered a way to make fullerenes water soluble without making them more toxic. Now, after undergoing clinical trials, they are launching a fullerene-based  water solution (FWS) drink shortly on the Ukrainian market as a natural food supplement, Fullerenes are found naturally in lightening discharges, in nano-quantities in molasses or in some natural spring. spa waters and in shungite rocks.

Governments around the world should fast-track the approval of hydrated fullerenes (C60 HyFNs) or Fullerene Water Solution (FWS) drinks, which are anti-microbial (both anti viral and anti bacterial) and can protect people from all colds and flu. WFS is about to be launched by Ukrainian scientists on the Ukrainian market as a natural food supplement

So why the Ukrainians and not another country-you might ask yourself? Well they all tried (UK, Americans, Germans, China, Japan, South Korea, etc)  to make safe nontoxic watersoluble fullernes but failed except for Ukrainian researchers.

So here are the benefits of FWS over conventional approaches

1) FWS are not viral specific like vaccines -they don't need several months lead time to be manufactured  for each new viral season. The turnaround for FWS is 2-3 days. FWS work on all viruses and bacteria year round, by suppressing the viral or bacterial spread from cell to cell. FWS don't kill microbes but block mobility from cell to cell, due to water clusters formed around the fullerene molecule. Your  immune system then decides which  microbes are invaders and which microbes  are beneficial for the body.

2) People and especially teenagers who have died due to swine flu (due to cytokine cascades or secondary bacterial infections) could have been saved if FWS was on the market today.

3) High risk groups -like Canadian aboriginal Indians, could be saved from flu death by taking a combination of Vitamin D (to tune up the immune system in the winter) and FWS

4) With FWS you don't need annual immunization campaigns and 6 hour long lineups, like we have seen in Toronto this past week. Public health money could be used for other priorities.

5) With FWS, you don't need to distinguish between high and low risk groups like you do in rollouts for vaccines. If  FWS were available from Walmart to corner health food stores as a health drink , you'd have equal access

6) FWS are cheaper to produce then antibiotics and vaccines

7) FWS are safer then vaccines and antibiotics (see http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/and type in "fullerene" under Hazardous Substance Data Bank). FWS don' t build up resistance in bacteria the way antibiotics do.

8)FWS would reduce the work load on hospital ICU's and protect front line staff

9) Feeding fullerne laced water to animals would eliminate the need for conventional antibiotics

10) Dipping plant seeds in fullerene water solutions increases growth, health  and resilience of growing plants

 

For more information contact me from your corporate email

Walter Derzko

 

Other medical/biological effects of HyFN's see http://www.fullwater.com.ua/page6.html )

Water-soluble fullerenes (also known as buckyballs) or hydrated fullerenes (HyFN's) appear to possess an impressive list of in vivo and in vitro effects which have been researched by Ukrainian scientists and are summarized below:

The following table was reproduced with the permission of the authors:

Basic biological properties of aqueous solutions of the hydrated C60 fullerene (HyFn) detected to the present time (May 2005)

In vitro experiments revealed that HyFn with C60 concentrations up to 100mM/l:

1. Are non-toxic for cells including hepatocytes;

2. Do not suppress, but promote the growth of isolated micro-organisms (microbes, fungi, etc.) and improve the survival rate and viability of cells (e.g., spermatozoa) and of frozen-thawed cells;

3. Do not inhibit cell respiration;

4. Do not suppress membrane-bonded ATP-ase activity;

5. Possess greater anti-oxidant properties then vitamin E, b-carotene and BHT (2,6-di-tert-butyl-4-kresol);

6. Stabilize cellular membranes and enhance their resistance under adverse conditions;

7. Do not affect blood coagulation;

8. Increase by 5-10 degrees C the temperature of biomolecules denaturation (DNA, albumin, collagen and etc.);

9. Increase catalytic activity of isolated enzymes (e.g., serine proteases).

In vivo experiments revealed that HyFn with C60 total doses up to 25mg/kg of b.w.:

1. Are non-toxic, not immunogenic, none allergenic;

2. Increase resistance of plasma membranes to damaging factors;

3. Positively influence anti-oxidant and energetic systems of organisms;

4. Possess radioprotective properties due to suppression of excess level of free radicals;

5. Possess antihistaminic and allergy-suppressing abilities, i.e., act as anti-inflammatory agents,

6. Positively influence activity of adrenergic, GABA-, hystaminic- and, especially, serotoninergic systems and, as a consequence, enhance adaptogenic functions of organisms; adaptive homeostasis

7. Show positive neuroprotecting effects (e.g., in Alzheimer's disease) and non-specific analgesic effects;

8. Do not kill tumor cells, inhibition of development of cancer pathologies, cancer metastasis,

9. Possess anti-atherosclerotic (anti-atherogenic) properties;

10. Are able to protect against viral infection (e.g., influenza, etc.): (HyFn do not kill viruses and microbes, but do not allow them to incorporate into cells)....(HYFNs plus Vitamin D supplements  could make antibiotics and vaccines obsolete in the future)

Source: Fullerenes, Nanotubes, and Carbon Nanostructures, 13: 363-376, 2005;Is the C60 Fullerene Molecule Toxic?!

 

Walter Derzko,

 Smart Economy, Toronto

 

  

  

  

  

Author of the soon-to-be published book- Opportunity 45 Scenarios to Drive Your Business in Challenging Times,  published by J. Wiley and Sons

ISBN13: 978-0-470-73761-3

ISBN10: 0-470-73761-1

 

Contact us about the Opportunity Clinic workshop and to invite Walter Derzko as a keynote speaker at your next event