Smart Economy

How does nutrition affect healthy aging, longevity? The correct combination of proteins is decisive for healthy aging, not reducing the calories in our diet

from a press release from the Max Planck Institute for Biology of Ageing......

"A new study from the Max Planck Institute for Biology of Ageing could help us understand the positive effect of dietary restriction on healthy ageing. Previous evidence from different organisms (fruit flies and mice) have shown that dietary restriction increases longevity, but with a potential negative side effect of diminished fertility. So the female fruit fly reproduces less frequently with a reduced litter size on a low calorie diet, but its reproductive span lasts longer. This is the result of an evolutionary trait, as scientists believe: essential nutrients are diverted towards survival instead of reproduction. (Nature, December 3, 2009)

Researchers from the newly created Max Planck Institute for Biology of Ageing in Cologne have studied whether health benefits stem from a reduction in specific nutrients or calorie intake in general, by manipulating the diet of female fruit flies. The fruit flies were fed a diet of yeast, sugar and water, but with differing amounts of key nutrients, such as vitamins, lipids and amino acids. The scientists were able to show that longevity and fertility are affected by a combination of the type and amount of amino acids; whilst varying the amount of the other nutrients had little or no effect.

Furthermore, the researchers found out in previous studies that levels of a particular amino acid - methionine - were crucial to increasing lifespan without decreasing fertility. By carefully manipulating the balance of amino acids, both lifespan and fertility were maximised. For the first time, this indicates that it is possible to extend lifespan without wholesale dietary restriction and without lowering reproductive capacity.

As the effects of dietary restriction on lifespan is evolutionary conserved - observed in different organisms - researchers believe that the essential mechanisms apply to it as well. Even though the human genome has about four times the number of genes as the fruit fly genome, there are many similarities on a genetic level, allowing these results to be of significance for humans as well.

 

Walter Derzko

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for  Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or  Efficiency?

Entreperneurs must make many strategi choices. "Are we going to be innovative or efficient or possibly both vs our competition." is one of them. Firms that simultaneously engage in a high degree of both innovation and efficiency follow an approach that is often referred to in the academic business literature as an ambidextrous strategy.  Surprisingly, relatively few firms are able to balance these two approaches. Internal battles for resources often tip the scales in favor of efficiency over innovation, or vice versa. Management gurus frequently warn that simultaneously pursuing both can set the firm up for mediocre performance, yet the turbulent nature of today’s markets, cut-throat competition and despiration and anxiety from the recession create a renewed need for firms to reconsider this dual approach for longer-term success. Unfortunately, practical insights from empirical studies regarding performance benefits and implementation issues are still scant.  Perhaps this is one reason why few firms are successful in both efficiency and innovation.

 A paper called Innovation and efficiency: It is possible to have it all; this month in Business Horizons (2009) 52, 45—55 discusses the issue of an ambidextrous strategy.

From the Abstract

"In this article, the authors provide evidence—using a cross-industry survey of senior marketing managers in publicly-traded U.S. firms—that firms which successfully employ an ambidextrous strategy outperform those which overemphasize either efficiency or innovation. Furthermore, they highlight marketing’s role as an example of the often overlooked need for successful functional implementation. Finally, they provide useful methods for managers to answer three key questions: (1) Is my firm ambidextrous?; (2) Should my firm be ambidextrous?; and, if so (3) How can my firm become ambidextrous?"

 From the body of the article we find:

"Some management experts are now renewing the call for firms to break with tradition and become ambidextrous—leaders in both efficiency and innovation—to achieve competitive advantage. Two top academic management journals, Academy of Management Journal and Organization Science, recently dedicated special issues to the examination of ambidextrous organizations and how firms manage the balance between efficiency and innovation. Both special issues cite the importance for managers of understanding issues surrounding ambidextrous strategies.

Organizational inertia pushes firms down a particular path, making it harder to adapt to market changes, while short  term thinking crowds out longer-term goals. Home Depot, Dell, Airbus, Kodak, and Ford are just a few examples of companies that have recently found themselves falling behind competitors as a result of overemphasizing one goal over the other."

I wrote to the authors of the article to find out who these ambidextrous firms are and how they are fairing in the recession, compared to their non-ambidextrous competition. When I get a reply, I’ll let Smart Economy blog readers know

Source: Innovation and efficiency: It is possible to have it all; Business Horizons (2009) 52, 45—55 by Matthew Sarkees  and John Hulland

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Resveratrol mimicing drug that prolongs longevity starts clinical trials ETA: within 5 years; 2103

A British paper today reports about a 'Wine' drug, (resembling resveratrol found in the skin of red grapes), that combats numerous diseases including ageing and Alzheimer's started clinical trials and could be on sale within five years.

"A drug that holds back the ageing process and prevents cancer, heart disease and
Alzheimer's, could be on sale within five years, scientists claim. They say it could also
be used to stop the onset of diabetes, reinvigorate patients and give them more stamina.
The drug is made up of chemicals that mimic resveratrol, a compound which is found in the
skins of red grapes. Previous research has shown resveratrol reduces the impact of a
high-fat diet, doubles stamina and extends lifespan in mice. However, to get the same
benefits, a human would have to drink around 1,000 bottles of wine. Now a pharmaceutical
firm has developed a pill based on two chemicals that act in the same way. In one study
on mice, published last year, the drug was found to reverse the symptoms of diabetes. It
was also shown to cut sensitivity to insulin, the chemical that helps control blood sugar
levels in the body, and which is in short supply in diabetes sufferers. The first
clinical trials on humans are now under way, and the developers - Sirtris Pharmaceuticals
- believe it could also help prevent diseases including cancer, heart disease and
Alzheimer's. "

'One of the drawbacks of resveratrol is that the doses need to be large. 'Now this paper says you can reduce it into a little pill taken once a day. The chances of success in humans is estimated at 80 to 90 per cent.' His researchers tested around 500,000 molecules to find those that would have the
same effect as resveratrol on genes known to control the ageing process."

The same  beneficial results were seen in two studies of mice and one of rats.

'When you see it work in those three models, you have increased confidence that it will have a universal effect on organisms,' he added. 'This is the first time real drugs have been designed to go after diseases through genes that control ageing.' A separate study out last month showed that mice fed resveratrol had strong bones, healthier hearts, better balance and co-ordination, and fewer cataracts than those not given the compound. It also helped them live longer if they had a high-calorie diet. Resveratrol is currently sold as a health supplement, and is primarily derived from Japanese knotweed.

###

After checking I found that there  are 8 clinical trials around the world (Europe & USA) on resveratrol or resveratrol-like derivatives

ETA: 2013

see full story here

© 2005-2008 Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"© ™

Expert, Consultant, Keynote Speaker and Lecturer on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page 

Smart Sustainability Showcase for Toronto and Canada

From: Walter Derzko

Sent: Friday, July 11, 2008 12:19 AM

To: undisclosed list

Subject: re Smart Sustainability ShowCase for Toronto and Canada.

Importance: High

Dear Colleagues

I’d like to plant an idea with you – after speaking with a number of designers and vendors, I’m exploring the idea for a sustainability showcase that would feature theme based exhibits with smart technologies from Canadian and international sources-the best from Ontario, nationally and from around the world.

The launch would be 2010, The timing for this seems right.  The target audience would be Canadian business, consumers and school children

I’m writing a book on smart technologies and this would be a logical extension of the concept.

Two years ago I talked to Samantha Sannella and Poala Polletto at the Design Exchange (DX) in Toronto and with several people at the Ont Science Center.  Both groups expressed interest but said that we would need to find sponsors for the project

My business model for this would be three pronged -vendor based revenue, corporate based sponsor revenue and municipality based sponsorship ie city of Toronto or Mississauga and possibly the province of Ontario who may wish to promote sustainable manufacturing.

This concept would be a Canadian, in fact a North American first.

I have a list of 150 potential vendors, and designers from around the world who are working on smart technologies that we can start to approach.

The exhibits would be theme based, --the sustainable kitchen, the sustainable office, the sustainable retail shelf, the sustainable workspace, the sustainable community, the sustainable city etc and would be updated with new technologies every 3-5 years and have a 1-5 year forward focus. (what's commercially available now or in the very near future.

For other exhibits, there can be a regional or national focus ie smart sustainable technology from the UK, Finland, Germany (Fraunhofer Inst), China, Ukraine, Russia, or Singapore, Hong Kong etc

Corporate sponsors might include: Walmart, Rona, Home Deport, Canadian Tire, Loblaws, Sears, Imperial Oil, the banks (RBC, TD, RBC BMO) etc.

The Sustainability Showcase could be housed in a physical location, or it could tour from location to location around the city or province or be mobile ( on a bus the way the Japanese and Korean do- a display bus turned into a demo center that tours from school to school or to fairs and exhibitions.

OCAD students and staff and Beal senior fellows could play a hand in designing exhibit spaces and sourcing new vendors and sustainable technologies.

Several other revenue opportunities could spin off from this as well

Here’s just a few examples of what can be showcased

1) Environmentally sensible packaging such as Mercury-Absorbant NanoSponge packaging for broken compact fluorescent lamps (CFL's) http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2008/06/mercury-absorba.html

2) Concrete Wood (from the example I mentioned June 2 at OCAD, when Bob Logan was bemoaning the lack of durability of pressboard shelving from Ikea.  See Concrete Wood from lodgepole pine trees destroyed by pine beetles (kills two birds with one stone) http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2007/11/concrete-wood.html

3) End of Traditional Heating and Air conditioning Thin-film version of Active Building Envelope (ABE) systems could make conventional air conditioning and heating equipment obsolete http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2006/07/thinfilm_versio.html

4) OLEDs New High efficiency flat light source OLEDs > Almost any surface in a home, whether flat or curved, could become a light source: walls, curtains, ceilings, cabinets, shelves or tables.  Http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2006/04/new_high_effici.html

Lots more like these

For anyone who is interested in exploring the idea of a Smart Sustainability Showcase for Toronto, we are having a meeting on Tuesday July 22 at 11 am at the Ontario College of Art & Design (OCAD), Beal Institute for Strategic Creativity, room 600, 6th floor , 100 McCaul St, Toronto just south of the Ont Art Gallery.

Please RSVP, so we know how many people are coming

I have had some positive feedback from several organizations, & I’d like to push the concept forward

I'm sending this nationally and internationally in  case you are aware of any designers, vendors, manufacturers or research centers who have interesting cutting edge smart sustainable technology to showcase.

Contact me by email

----Walter  Derzko; Senior Fellow Beal Institute for Strategic Creativity, OCAD 

© 2005-2008 Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant, Keynote Speaker and Lecturer on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

"You are what you eat" may need to be modified to "You are what your parents or grandparents ate" Genetics vs Epigenetics

The July 12 issue of New Scientist has an intriguing cover story...Forget Genes; The Strange inheritance from your parents which goes on the explains the term epigenetics and obsolesces all that I learned in biology class about Darwin, inheritance and genetics.

Epigenetics deals with how gene activity is regulated within every  cell in your body - which genes are switched on or off, which are dimmed or enhanced and how, and when in your life all of this happens.

Over the past decade of research it has become increasingly clear that environmental factors, such as diet or stress, can have biological consequences that are transmitted to offspring (children and grand children) without a single change to gene sequences taking place.

That begs an interesting question –could the longevity records (people living well past 100 years old ) that we now see in today’s generation in Ukraine, Russia and China be partially due severe caloric and dietary restrictions earlier in life ( such as Stalin’s forced famine (genocide or Holodomor) in the 1930’s in Ukraine?)   As far as I know this has not been researched.

New Scientist highlights a few examples:

"In 2000, Randy Jirtle at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, led a ground-breaking experiment on a strain of genetically identical mice.  These mice carried the agouti gene, which makes them fat and prone to diabetes and cancer.  Jirtle and his student Robert Waterland gave one group of females a diet rich in methyl groups before conception and during pregnancy.  They found that the offspring were very different to their parents - they were slim and lived to a ripe old age.  Though the pups had inherited the damaging agouti gene, the methyl groups had attached to the gene and dimmed its expression.”

In people, too, there is evidence that environmental impacts on fathers and mothers can produce changes in their children.  This has led some researchers to consider a startling possibility. 

Could the current epidemic of type II diabetes and obesity in the developed world be related to what our parents and our grandparents ate?

"Nutrition does seem to have some lasting effect, according to a study by Marcus Pembrey of the Institute of Child Health at University College London and his colleagues.  They analysed records from the isolated community of Överkalix in northern Sweden and found that men whose paternal grandfathers had suffered a shortage of food between the ages of 9 and 12 lived longer than their peers (European Journal of Human Genetics, vol 14, p 159)."

"A similar maternal-line effect existed for women, but in this case by far the biggest effect on longevity of the granddaughters occurred when food was limited while grandmothers were in the womb or were infants.  It would appear that humans thrive on relatively meagre rations, and the team concluded that under these conditions some sort of key information - perhaps epigenetic in nature - was being captured at the crucial stages of sperm and egg formation, then passed down generations."

"Pembrey's team also looked at more recent records from the UK, collected for the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children.  They identified 166 fathers who reported starting smoking before the age of 11 and found that their sons - but not their daughters - had a significantly higher than average body mass index at the age of 9."

The mother's nutrition might affect a child's risk of obesity, too.  Women in the Netherlands who were in the first two trimesters of pregnancy during a famine in 1944 and 1945 gave birth to boys who, at 19, were much more likely to be obese.

Scientists are asking why? 

"Why should factors like food intake or smoking around the time sperm or eggs are created, or at the embryo stage, have such an influence on a child's metabolism and weight?"

Extended periods of too much or too little food might trigger a switch to a pattern of gene expression that results in earlier puberty and so earlier mortality, says Pembrey - and this might be heritable. 

"The reason why some people gain weight more easily is because their metabolic genes are used differently," says Reinhard Stöeger at the University of Washington in Seattle.  He suggests that long before the emergence of modern humans, a network of metabolic genes evolved that was honed for a relative scarcity of food, but not feast or famine [extremes].  "These genes have become epigenetically programmed during the early stages of life in response to adverse environmental conditions - such as feast." ..... This might explain the current epidemic of type II diabetes and obesity in the west, where food is plentiful."  Prolonged epigenetic silencing in response to the environment might also lead to a DNA change that "locks in" epigenetic marks, Stöeger suggests"

 

© 2005-2008 Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant, Keynote Speaker and Lecturer on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

Smart Living-The secret to long life may not be in the genes

Research on the bone health of one of the oldest persons in the world, who recently died at the age of 114, reveals that there were no genetic modifications which could have contributed to this longevity.  The research team, directed by Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona professor Adolfo Díez Pérez, pointed out a healthy lifestyle, a Mediterranean diet, a temperate climate and regular physical activity as the reasons for his excellent health.

The research team studied the bone mass and analysed the genetics of a man with enviable health who at the time of the study was 113 years old.  The research was carried out with four other members of his family: a 101-year-old brother, two daughters aged 81 and 77, and a nephew aged 85, all of them born and still living in a small town of the island of Menorca.  The research findings were recently published in the Journal of Gerontology and reported that the man's bones were in excellent conditions: his bone mass was normal, there were no anomalous curvatures and he had never sustained a fracture.

With regard to the genetical analyses, researchers were unsuccessful in finding any mutations in the KLOTHO gene, which is generally related to a good level of mineral density and therefore healthy bones.  Neither did they find any mutations in the LRP5 gene, which is associated with longevity.  None of the members of the family who participated in the study presented any mutations in this gene.

The results of the research do not rule out the possibility that other genetic mutations could positively influence longevity.  However, researchers do point out the fact that the excellent health of this family, and of the 113-year-old man in particular, is probably due to a Mediterranean diet, the temperate climate of the island, a lack of stress and regular physical activity.  The article underlines the fact that until the age of 102, the man cycled every day and looked after the family orchard.

This research was directed by Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona professor Adolfo Díez Pérez, researcher at the Municipal Institute of Medical Research (IMIM) and doctor at Hospital del Mar in Barcelona, with the participation of IMI'm researchers Leonardo Mellibovsky, Pau Lluch and Xavier Nogués, and researchers from the Department of Genetics at the University of Barcelona Mariona Bustamante, Susana Balcells and Daniel Grinberg.

Contact: Octavi López Coronado octavi.lopez@uab.cat 34-935-813-301Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona

Paradox: Antioxidant users don't live longer, analysis of studies concludes

Antioxidant users don't live longer, analysis of studies concludes

The vitamin industry has long touted antioxidants as a way to improve health by filling in gaps in diet, but a new review of studies found no evidence that the nutrition supplements extend life.  Worse, the review authors said that some antioxidants could increase risk for death.

The reviewers want more regulation of the nutraceuticals industry, but an antioxidant researcher with the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that call for stricter monitoring overreaches the conclusions of the review.

The meta-analysis of 67 randomized studies found that supplemental antioxidants do not reduce mortality and that some — including vitamin A, beta-carotene and vitamin E — could increase mortality.  The review combined evidence from more than 200,000 people.

“The harmful effects of antioxidant supplements are not confined to vitamin A,” said review co-author Christian Gluud, M.D. “Our analyses also demonstrate rather convincingly that beta-carotene and vitamin E lead to increased mortality compared to placebo.”

The review appears in the latest issue of The Cochrane Library, a publication of The Cochrane Collaboration, an international organization that evaluates medical research.  Systematic reviews draw evidence-based conclusions about medical practice after considering both the content and quality of existing medical trials on a topic.

Most people do eat not enough fruits and vegetables to ensure an adequate intake of vital nutrients.  However, it is unclear if supplementation can provide benefits akin to a healthy diet and if some antioxidants are, in fact, harmful.  Antioxidants are nutrients such as vitamin E, vitamin C, or beta carotene that have been marketed as a way to counter the damaging effects of oxygen in the tissues.

The review included studies of healthy adults and adults diagnosed with specific, stable medical conditions.  The authors excluded studies with children or pregnant women, or studies that evaluated supplements as treatment for acute diseases, such as malignant cancer.  It also excluded studies that used supplements for replacement of nutrient deficits.

The review authors recommend greater regulation of antioxidant supplements and make a “plea for urgent political action,” said Gluud, director of medical science, associate professor and department head of the Copenhagen Trial Unit at the Centre for Clinical Intervention Research and Copenhagen University Hospital in Denmark.

“We should request that the regulatory authorities dare to regulate the industry without being financially dependent on the very same industry,” Gluud said.

However, nutrition science expert Jeffrey Blumberg, Ph.D., said the reviewers go too far in their recommendations for more stringent regulation of antioxidant supplements.

“I could find nowhere in this report any review of regulatory practices and effectiveness or the evaluation of public health policies, procedures or perspectives,” Blumberg said.

Blumberg is director of the Antioxidants Research Laboratory at the USDA Human Nutrition Research Center on Aging and a professor with the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University.  He was not involved in the review.

A supplement-industry trade group questions both the review conclusions and the study selection process for the analysis.

“Four hundred five studies which showed no deaths were excluded from the meta-analysis, which if included, clearly would have altered the outcome of the meta-analysis,” said Andrew Shao, Ph.D., vice president of scientific and regulatory affairs for the Council for Responsible Nutrition, a supplement industry trade association in Washington, D.C.

Shao maintained that antioxidant supplements are safe additions to a healthy diet.

The review only includes studies in which someone died.

Gluud defended his methodology, saying it is important to include only large, randomized controlled trials to assess mortality.  Most of the trials that showed no deaths were not “proper preventative trials,” he said.

Blumberg raised concerns about the use of “all-cause mortality” as a yardstick for antioxidants’ influence on health and life.  “All-cause mortality” includes deaths resulting from everything from cancer to a train wreck.

Blumberg said: “There is no basis in biology to presume that one or more of these nutrients can kill through any and all possible mechanisms of action.”

see original paper: Bjelakovic G, et al.  Antioxidant supplements for prevention of mortality in healthy participants and patients with various diseases (Review).  Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2008, Issue 2.

Survival of the Human Race 08-025

"Forty-years ago British scientist James Lovelock put forward the first elements of what he would come to call the Gaia theory.  Named for the ancient Greek goddess of the earth, it held that the earth as a whole functions as a self-regulating system.  At first many biologists scoffed.  Today, Lovelock's ideas are more widely accepted, even in circles where he was initially scorned.

But even as he has been winning scientific honours, James Lovelock has been growing more pessimistic about the prospects for contemporary civilization."

From CBC Ideas , How to Think about Science. 

"I can't see for the life of me, how more then 20% of us in the world are going survive till the end of this century.  It's that bad"

From the Revenge of Gaia, James Lovelock

Do you agree with Lovelock?

© 2005-2006

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight,, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To arrange for an in house presentation on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

.......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to. - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

What came before DNA or RNA ? Fullerenes and amino acids? 08-008

Christmas and New Year's is a time when many people think about birth or rebirth and some even more philosophically about how life first started on earth.

The complexity of life has always bothered me. Helical DNA molecules are a fairly complex structure and I always wondered if there could have been a proto-genesis stage to life…ie what where the steps before the creation of DNA and RNA on Earth?

We are now getting some strands of evidence (pun intended) that suggests what came before DNA and RNA. One explanation is the primordial soup theory. According to Wikipedia, the primordial sea, or primordial ocean, is a term applied collectively to the oceans of the earth at a very early time in its history, either the time before or during the development of multi-cellular life forms (i.e., during the Precambrian), or alternatively before the development of the first land-based life forms (i.e. during the early Paleozoic). The term primordial ooze (or primordial or prebiotic soup), refers to a particular set of models of the origin of life.

One hypothesis has been the notion of spontaneous self-assembly of basic amino acids to form simple strands of DNA. This was recently in the news with the announcement amino acids can self-assemble under curtain conditions. However, this seems too random and uncertain to be constantly reproduced to create life. 

Could some other atom or molecule have been used as a template for the creation of life on earth, prior to the short-strand DNA formation stage?

Carbon is one of the most abundant atoms on earth. Most people will recognize two forms of basic carbon; charcoal or graphite (the lead in your pencil)and diamonds. The third form of carbon (discovered in the 1980’s) is C60 or Fullerenes or Buckyballs, named after Buckminster Fuller, the designer of the geodesic dome at Expo 67 which resembles a 60 point soccer ball.Fullerene (C₆₀, C₇₀, etc.) was the third carbon allotrope discovered in 1985 (by H.W. Kroto, R.E. Smally, R.F. Curl; Nobel Prize in 1996), and since then, a great deal of attention has been focused on its physical-chemical and unique bio-medical properties. Fullerenes have been found in nature (in molasses - a waste byproduct of heating sugar cane), in candle soot and in impact craters of meteorites in Sudbury Ontario( formed both on impact and of extraterrestrial origins).

Could C60 Fullerenes have been the templates uses by very basic amino acids to form the first strands of life (DNA) in earth’s pre-mordial soup, millions of years ago?

This plausible hypothesis was proposed by Prof. Grigoriy Andrievsky in Sudak Crimea at the 7^Th International Conference called Cosmos and the Biosphere, in the fall of 2007 in a paper entitled “Water Structures ordered [in a] specific manner as universal regulators of biological processes; what hydrated fullerenes-the symbiosis of cure carbon and water-have told [us]”.Andrievsky G.V. ISMA NAS Ukraine, STC 'Institute for Single Crystals', Kharkiv, Ukraine.  Andrievsky points out the similarity between spherical fractal clusters of hydrated fullerenes (HyFn) (C₆₀ and surrounding water clusters) and some of the most significant biological structures.Fullerenes have been found to mimic several biologically important structures such as clathrine cages, viral structures, and other structural (spatially) similar biological supra-(or sub)-molecular structures. He also suggests that the universalism of HyFn biological activity as the confirmation of hypothesis that C₆₀ - H₂O systems might be the matrix for primary biological matter (substance) formation (such as RNA or DNA).

He writes:

“The wide range of HyFn positive biological activity can be determined by the quite eligible hypothesis that fullerenes and fullerene-like structures, conjoint with water molecules, could be the first natural matrices for the initial synthesis of pristine bio-molecules on earth. As a consequence, HyFn should not be foreign for living organisms and, thus, they should be capable of protecting and stabilizing the biological structures formed in nature and which exist in a hydrated state."

This was confirmed this week in a paper published in Chemical Physical Letters called Fullerene-Amino Acid Interactions.  A Theoretical Study.by Aned de Leon, Abraham F.Jalbout and Vladimr A. Basiuk. In it, they explored the ability of the C60 fullerenes to interact with amino acids at the theoretical level. The calculations suggest that the most favorable interactions of the fullerene is with arginine, leucine, and tryptophan which is related to the backbone structure of the corresponding amino acids.

UK Government publishes Strategic Horizon Scans

The Horizon Scanning Centre has commissioned two complementary scans looking ahead up to 50 years : the Sigma Scan and the Delta Scan.

Initial versions of both scans have been published by the contractors who developed them : Sigma Scan by Outsights - Ipsos MORI and Delta Scan  by the Institute for the Future (IFTF).

The Sigma Scan is a broad synthesis of some of the world's best Horizon Scanning sources. It covers future issues and trends across the full public policy agenda. It is drawn from a range of sources including think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals, charities/NGOs, blogs, minority communities, and futurists.

The Delta Scan is an overview of future science and technology issues and trends, with contributions by over 200 science and technology experts from the worlds of government, business, academia and communication in the UKand US.

Develeped over 2005 and 2006 by a team of consultants and futurists,  the Scanning Framework has some novel methodologies and catagories. Each main issue is described as an Issue paper.

The main text of the Issue Papers themselves is divided into a number of different sections:


Headline: Headlines provide a brief description of the future eventuality discussed a pithy note on the main themes contained within the paper.


Keywords: Keywords summarise the coverage of the issue and suggest related issues, domains or topics.


Summary: The summary provides first an Abstract of the Issue (delimited by asterisks) for a quick overview of the whole paper, followed by a description of the trend, event or theme and the debates it raises. This is generally a presentation of the data/evidence in this field, linked where necessary to sources (with no fixed view on likely outcomes).


Implications: this contains a range of possible outcomes that could flow from the Issue as described in the Summary. These incorporate a number of factors where appropriate, including social values, habitat/environment, new technologies, knock-on and perverse effects. Early Indicators: This aspect of the Paper suggests possible early warning signs and precursors that should be looked for to indicate that the Issue may indeed be developing as described in the Paper.

Drivers and Inhibitors: Factors, people, institutions or events which will either fuel (Drivers) or act as a barrier (Inhibitors) to the emergence of this Issue.


Parallels and Precedents: Historical, international or cross-cultural examples of
somewhat similar instances which may shed some light either on the evolution of the Issue or the likely success of different strategies in response.


Sources: The list of sources consulted in writing the Paper, with web links, documents and location information where applicable.


Related links: a list of websites that may be of further interest to the reader relating to the topic


Sigma Scan basics: Issue Markers

Each issue has been further labelled with a number of Markers, which provide highly indicative (i.e. not predictive) information about the possible likelihood, impact,
distribution, severity and development time of each Issue:


Impact: This marker is designed to reflect the potential of this issue to create pervasive and/or serious change in the world at large: a development which in cultural, technological, environmental, economic or political terms alters the way we live or perceive the world. Impact is divided into:

• ****Extreme: Intense, deep-seated, pervasive or long-lasting in its effects. An event/development which profoundly affects the planet for example, an asteroid strike.
• ***High: A great event in human history, something that shapes human history and leaves longstanding cultural residues for example, the moon landings, the establishment of the United Nations, a major pandemic.
• **Medium: A defining aspect of a particular generation or nation's experience of the world. An important footnote in world history, such as the implementation of the Euro, the fall of the Berlin Wall.
• *Low: A development whose scope to instigate change is subtle or in some way restrained by conditions, medium, force, locality or likely responses. Something that captures the news agenda for months or years, but eventually fades into the cultural memory for example, the cultural changes of the 1960s.
• ?Unknown: There is no consensus within the literature about how best to interpret this issue.

Likelihood: The likelihood that this issue will evolve to become a central theme/development - in some way - in future society within its projected life span. The likelihood markers are:

• ***High: 75+% confidence that the events discussed will come to pass.
• **Medium: An equivocal 50/50 call.
• *Low: 25% or less probability.
• ?Unknown: No consensus about the likelihood.
  
  

Controversy: The level of consensus amongst experts, commentators and other observers holds that the Issue will unfold in the way described in the Paper and/or assume a greater significance in acting as an instigator of change. The controversy markers are:

• ***High: Very few experts pay the issue serious attention, and there is very little consensus about the extent to which this issue is likely to emerge. There is very little known evidence for this issue, and what there is highly unconventional, or propounded by alternative sources.
• **Medium: Whilst there is some kind of conventional consensus, futurists and/or alternative sources dispute whether this issue is likely to be a central development in future. Evidence is somewhat equivocal or open to scrutiny, even within expert audiences.
• *Low: The majority of experts, as well as a large volume of authoritative evidence, point to this issue emerging as a central theme over the next 50 years.
• ?Unknown: No known consensus on how to apply this marker.

When: The expected timeframe for this issue to influence C.21st life to the degree ascribed to it under "Impact". Divided into:

• 0-2 years: This impact of this issue is already being felt or will be in the immediate future
• 3-10 years: Likely to be under way but perhaps not well distributed. Wider effects felt over the near horizon
• 11-20 years: Mid horizon effects
• 21-50 years: Mid to far horizon effects
• 50+ years: Far horizon effects ?Unknown: High level of uncertainty as to when this impact could be felt

Where: The geographical spread of the Issues impact. Divided into:

• Domestic/national Largely restricted to particular nation states (e.g. UK)
• Regional Largely restricted to major global regions/continental areas (e.g. EU, Latin America)
• Global Potential to be experienced anywhere/everywhere on a global scale
• ?Unknown

How fast: How quickly the events and potential impacts described in the Paper could be
experienced:

• Instant in a matter of moments
• Days over the course of days
• Months over months
• Years over years
• Unknown

Sigma Scan basics: Issue Genres


As well as the markers, each paper is also classified into a number of different Genres. This is identified at the start of the Summary in capital letters and is supplied as an at-a-glance way for users to decide what sort of critical thinking they should apply to their reading of the paper. (e.g. in the same way that we would apply different critical faculties for reading a work of science fiction than we would for reading todays
newspaper).

Weak signal: A primarily descriptive Paper attempting to shed light on a relatively little known, weakly felt or poorly distributed phenomenon a possible baby trend at the relative margins of current knowledge. The Implications of this style of paper tend to be limited to explaining what is already starting to happen, and the Drivers / Inhibitors are important in deciding whether it will grow into a Key Driver or dwindle into nothing. The aim of Weak Signal papers is to inform readers about trends or
potential events that might slip under the radar.

Forecast: An Issue for which there is a relatively high degree of certainty, at least in terms of its likely presence as a force for change, based as it is on robust quantitative data and relatively stable variables. Forecast papers are based upon well-grounded and
authoritative sources, drawing on models or statistics to draw conclusions.

Key driver: These Papers describe a relatively more mainstream and better-known trend or development. Something that would probably on the radar of most policymakers or strategy thinkers. Key Driver papers provide a top-level review of the trend for the uninitiated, and aim to stretch the more informed reader with some wider Implications Parallels / Precedents beyond the usual inferences and certainties.

Scenario: A Paper which takes as its evidence base published scenario work from other sources. It therefore discusses the range of uncertainties and drivers that have been discussed in developing these scenarios and compares the assumptions in them. Rather than describing a possible driver of future change, it therefore examines the feasibility and possible implications of a particular hypothetical future.

Wildcard: An Issue with the potential to emerge unexpectedly but with potentially major impacts. Often, these papers deal with a radical discontinuity, as compared to other, more continuous and/or gradual trends.