Smart Economy

Each person on earth may have a unique human 'odorprint'

Each of the 6.7 billion people on earth has a signature body odor -- the chemical counterpart to fingerprints -- and scientists are tracking down those  "human odorprints" for purposes ranging from disease diagnosis to crime prevention, according to the current issue of Chemical & Engineering News, ACS' weekly newsmagazine.

 

One interesting application from the Chemical & Engineering News story is smelling/ detecting deception:

"Back in March, the Department of Homeland Security’s Science & Technology Directorate floated a research solicitation that presages the kinds of information the security community hopes to glean from odorprint detection and surveillance. “The DHS S&T Directorate is requesting approval for a contracted, outsourced, proof-of-principle study to determine if human odor signatures can serve as an indicator of deception,” the solicitation states."

[…]

"Police have long have used trained dogs to sniff out these uniquely personal scents in pursuing criminals.

Scientists now are trying to decipher the chemistry of human odor to develop technology that can detect and classify smells. That's a difficult task, the article says, noting that each person's odorprint is a complex mixture impacted by multiple environmental factors, including diet and cosmetics.

scientists already have identified odors in human breath and skin associated with diabetes, cancer, and other diseases. Scientists are even trying to detect the "smell of deception," or chemical changes that occur with heightened stress that may help screen and identify, for example, terrorists planning to blow up an airplane and criminals intending to rob a bank.

In theory, this should be possible. “Anything that causes physiological changes is likely to change body odor,” Beauchamp notes. And stress, including stress associated with lying, has physiological effects.

Experimental psychologist Pamela Dalton of Monell, along with Preti and others, has found that the composition of underarm sweat is altered by stressful experiences, such as being tasked to count backward by intervals of 13 quickly and without error lest you need to start over. “It is a humbling experience, and our experiments show that particular kinds of stressors will make levels of stress hormones, such as epinephrine and cortisol, increase rapidly,” Dalton says.

This stress response does not require a GC/MS to detect. A human nose will do. “We found that people can readily distinguish the smell of someone who is stressed versus the same person when not stressed,” Dalton tells C&EN. “Slightly oniony, where you have left an onion out awhile, and you get a lot of those sulfur volatiles emanating from it” is how she describes the smell of stress.

Dalton can’t say precisely what chemicals are responsible or whether these are normally at indiscernible levels in the odorprint baseline or are unique signals produced under stress. Even if she can uncover the chemical details, it will be tricky to put such findings to use for, say, security applications. “There are people who go to the airport every day who are terrified of flying,” yet they might smell stressed out, like a person planning to blow up the plane, Dalton cautions."

Full story http://pubs.acs.org/cen/science/87/8741sci2.html

When will the Recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed-Ontario on the Move

Last December I posted a series of suggestions for Canadian Prime Minister Harper and US

President Obama to consider when funding infrastructure. See Top 10 smart technologies for Obama and Harper to consider for their infrastructure / cyberstructure / cognistructure program

Now Richard Florida & his team weighs into the game. This comes from a press release from the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto this morning--Walter Derzko

Ontario on the Move - Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed

Economic history has shown that changes in infrastructure systems have often underlain phases of significant economic growth. Railroads in the 19th century, highway systems of the 1960s, and the internet infrastructure of the late 20th century are prime examples.  The innovation that gives rise to new infrastructure systems is often a response to severe stress and is often driven by desperate circumstances.  Ontario's opportunity lies not in reacting to a crisis but in proactively investing in the infrastructure necessary for future success.

 
This Week's Working Papers:

 

These working papers highlight the diverse array of challenges and opportunities Ontario

faces as it transitions toward the creative age. They represent the next three of twenty working papers that we commissioned to support the core analysis of our report: Ontario in the Creative Age. We hope you find them engaging.

• Infrastructure and the Economy: Future directions for Ontario by Chris Kennedy, Bryan Karney, Eric Miller, and Marianne Hatzopoulou
• Ontario's South Asian Transnationals: Unlocking the Potential of an Untapped Resource by Azmi Haq
• Learning from the Past - Volume 1: The Automotive Industry and Economic Development in Ontario; a Historical Perspective (1904 to the Present) by Stewart Melanson

READ MORE >>

 

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy. Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related Recession / Depression Posts

When will the recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

When will the recession/ depression end? Part 18 Hormones and Boom and Bust Cycles

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 17 Recap from the World Economic Forum in Davos

When will the recession end? Part 16 It's all over, well sort of.

When will the recession end? Part 15 Year-end predictions for 2009 starting to come true

When will the recession end? Part 14 Four options for America's race to the bottom

When will the recession end? Part 13 Thirteen economic questions that economists can't answer

When will the recession end? Part 12 Bad times are good times for startups

When will the recession end? Part 11 Bank of Canada optimism

When will the recession end? Part 10, The Conformity Trap or Don't count on your economist for advise

When will the recession end? Part 9 Humor will signal recession /depression bottom

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will this recession end?

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Why sustainable power is unsustainable?- advanced "renewable" technologies are too often based upon non-renewable resources

Recessions and depressions are great periods in history because paradoxes and contradictions seem to stand out even more. The big one facing society in the next two decades is the obvious economic one-everything in our conventional economic paradigm is based on annual, year-over-year growth, yet we appear to be entering a period of "peak resources" ranging from peak water, to peak oil, peak gas and most importantly for business, peak minerals-facts that the green eco-movement often ignores, or is hiding in the closet-the dirty green secret.

A story earlier this month in New Scientist, covered a Financial Times conference on energy and sustainability in London England and it concludes:

"Renewable energy needs to become a lot more renewable...[..]... Although scientists are agreed that we must cut carbon emissions from transport and electricity generation to prevent the globe's climate becoming hotter, and more unpredictable, the most advanced "renewable" technologies are too often based upon non-renewable resources, attendees heard. Supratik Guha of IBM told the conference that sales of silicon solar cells are booming, with 2008 being the first year that the silicon wafers for solar cells outstripped those used for microelectronic devices. But although silicon is the most abundant element in the Earth's crust after oxygen, it makes relatively inefficient cells that struggle to compete with electricity generated from fossil fuels. And the most advanced solar-cell technologies rely on much rarer materials than silicon [-that being indium.]"

[..]...Peak Indium? 10 year of global supply left?

"The efficiency of solar cells is measured as a percentage of light energy they convert to electricity. Silicon solar cells finally reached 25% in late December. But multi-junction solar cells can achieve efficiencies greater than 40%.

 

Although touted as the future of solar power, those and most other multiple-junction cells owe their performance to the rare metal indium, which is far from abundant. There are fewer than 10 indium-containing minerals, and none present in significant deposits – in total the metal accounts for a paltry 0.25 parts per million of the Earth's crust.

 

Most of the rare and expensive element is used to manufacture LCD screens, an industry that has driven indium prices to $1000 per kilogram in recent years. Estimates that did not factor in an explosion in indium-containing solar panels reckon we have only a 10 year supply of it left.

If power from the Sun is to become a major source of electricity, solar panels would have to cover huge areas, making an alternative to indium essential."

Could we see resource wars, {which the US military has extensive plans for}, material rationing or outright prohibition like we saw with alcohol in the 1930's? Will we have to select between indium for our cell phones, flat screen TV's or solar cells? Will nanotech breakthroughs come to the rescue? -will an exotic combination of fullerenes, graphenes and carbon nanotubes be the substitution answer? The nanotech race for an alternative is on.--Walter Derzko

 

They also cover peak Platinum

"The dream of the hydrogen economy faces similar challenges, said Paul Adcock of UK firm Intelligent Energy. A cheap way to generate hydrogen has so far proved elusive. New approaches, such as using bacterial enzymes to "split" water, have a long way to go before they are commercially viable. So far, fuel cells are still the most effective way to turn the gas into electricity. But these mostly rely on expensive platinum to catalyse the reaction.

The trouble is, platinum makes indium appear super-abundant. It is present in the Earth's crust at just 0.003 parts per billion and is priced in $ per gram, not per kilogram. Estimates say that, if the 500 million vehicles in use today were fitted with fuel cells, all the world's platinum would be exhausted within 15 years. Unfortunately platinum-free fuel cells are still a long way from the test track. A nickel-catalysed fuel cell developed at  Wuhan University, China, has a maximum output only around 10% of that a platinum catalyst can offer.

A new approach announced yesterday demonstrates that carbon nanotubes could be more effective, as well as cheaper, than platinum. But again it will be many years before platinum-free fuel cells become  a commercial prospect."

Also , could Lithium shortages in 10-15 years  impede future electric car deployment?

 

Let’s look at the  metal gallium, which along with indium is used to make the next generation of semiconductor materials-indium gallium arsenide for a new generation of solar cells that promise to be up to twice as efficient as conventional designs. Reserves of both metals are disputed, but in a 2007 report Renï  Kleijn, from LeidenUniversity in the Netherlands, concludes that current reserves "would not allow a substantial contribution of these cells" to the future supply of solar electricity. He estimates gallium and indium will probably contribute to less than 1 per cent of all future solar cells - a limitation imposed purely by a lack of raw material."

Other projections I've seen-antimony could run out in 10 years; Silver in 10 years, hafnium in 10-15 years and tribium by 2012 or 4-5 years. Looking for the next geopolitical flash point? The US imports 90% of its rare metals and materials from China.

(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol 103, p 1209), "Virgin stocks of several metals appear inadequate to sustain the modern 'developed world' quality of life for all of Earth's people under contemporary technology."

 

I've always wondered what minerals are hidden in the mountains of Afghanistan.... "It is widely acknowledged that one of the key motives for civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1998 and 2002 was the riches to be had from the country's mineral resources, including tantalum mines - the biggest in Africa. The war coincided with a surge in the price of the metal caused by the increasing popularity of mobile phones." (New Scientist, 7 April 2001, p 46).

 

 

Ever wonder why China is hoarding every gram of our high tech electronic garbage?  It's buying up high-tech scrap to extract metals that are key to its developing industries.

 

One good thing about this recession / depression shakeout-there will be far fewer firms fighting and scrambling over those increasingly precious resources-buying us a few extra years of transition time.

 

The lessons here?...Digging minerals out of the ground will no longer automatically confer economic advantage {Canada, Africa, Brazil and China Listen Up}, instead structuring "smart materials" in novel ways will.--Walter Derzko 

 

 

See full story here and image  

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Intelligent robots that evolve and grow in real time by mimicing biological evolution; unnatural selection

The next issue of New Scientist will feature an article about smart robots that evolve and grow in real time or unnatural selection..more disruptive technology on the way. We will see how much of this can be turned into commercial value, instead of just being an acedmic curiosity

According to New Scientist:

 

 

"Living creatures took millions of years to evolve from amphibians to four-legged mammals - with larger, more complex brains to match. Now an evolving robot has performed a similar trick in hours, thanks to a software "brain" that automatically grows in size and complexity as its physical body develops.

Existing robots cannot usually cope with physical changes - the addition of a sensor or new type of limb, say - without a complete redesign of their control software, which can be time-consuming and expensive.

So artificial intelligence engineer Christopher MacLeod and his colleagues at the Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, UK, created a robot that adapts to such changes by mimicking biological evolution. "If we want to make really complex humanoid robots with ever more sensors and more complex behaviours, it is critical that they are able to grow in complexity over time - just like biological creatures did," he says."

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Sporting equipment intellivating by getting a smarter grip

 

Today's sporting gear is dumb and benign.

 

But sports equipment is about to get a lot smarter soon --not just from a style point of view but literally.

 

The sports industry (along with porn) has always been a bellwether sector for new technology applications. First it was new  composite materials (graphite) and then nanotechnology (carbon nanotubes), Now hand-held  sporting gear is about to intellivate* (a word I coined that’s a combination of intelligence +elevate) or become “dynamic or responsive”

Apple has patented a process of wrapping electronic touch sensitive (hepatic) material around sports gear, from hockey sticks, tennis rackets and golf clubs, to baseball bats and even darts. Think of it as a smart grip, where the user’s grip (correct or incorrect) can be monitored for training and improving the consistency of shots or hits.

 

Consequences? Adapting an old saying, "Smart practise leads to perfection sooner." Armchair athletes, weekend warriors  and professionals alike will improve their proficiency in sports a lot quicker and earlier in age, increasing the talent pool for professional sports clubs to choose from.

 

ETA: 2010-2013

 

 

In the future footballs, baseballs, hockey pucks and golf balls may be next on the list of objects that will be able to give you direct feedback

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Tree power fuels remote, maintenance-free, meshed-network of sensors

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) researchers have been working on a system that uses energy from trees themselves to power a network of temperature and humidity sensors that act as remote weather stations to aid in fire detection and management. (other sensor applications are possible-see below)

From a recent Gizmag story

"While the odd phenomenon of "tree-power", or a sustained voltage difference between many plants and their surrounding soil has long been observed, the scientific basis for this effect has been the subject of debate. In a recently published paper on the subject, researchers from MIT's Center for Biomedical Engineering  believe they have found the answer, postulating that the effect is mainly due to a difference in pH between parts of trees and the surrounding soil and ruling out other theories such as an electrochemical redox reaction (think 'potato batteries').

The practical application of this power source envisioned by researchers is to provide enough trickle-charge to self-sustaining temperature and humidity sensors in remote locations where replacement of batteries is costly and impractical. The energy produced would slowly charge an off-the-shelf battery within the sensors enable wireless transmission of signals four times a day. These signals would jump from one sensor to the next until they reached an existing weather station  linked by satellite to a forestry command center and would transmit data immediately in the event of a forest fire.

Voltree Power is in the final stages of prototyping such a system with trials set for the spring on a 10-acre plot of land provided by the US Forest Service. The company also sees applications beyond fire monitoring for its “bioenergy converter”, including remote environmental and agricultural sensing, climate science research and even Homeland Security and border protection, where trees could be fitted with sensors to detect potential threats like smuggled radioactive materials."

ETA: Spring 2009 for field prototype

Original Story > here

MIT press release> here

 

© 2005-2008

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Guest Speaker on emerging Smart Technologies, Strategic Planning, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"

- old Japanese proverb

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Top 10 smart technologies for Obama and Harper to consider for their infrastructure / cyberstructure / cognistructure program

Both US president elect Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Steven Harper have promised "New Deal" like infrastructure programs for the USA and Canada to spend their way out of a depression / recession (pick one). A new term is needed to describe this type of new intelligence-infused infrastructure. I call it the cognistructure-an infrastructure that thinks for itself.

Here's my list of top 10 smart technologies that both Olbama and Harper should have their eye on and on their planning radar screens; (Niche applications 10-6, more ubiquitous applications 5-1)

10. Smart home fabrication (supersized 3D printer that prints your home on site) to improve construction efficiency and effectiveness and waste reduction in conventional house building (but there is little chance of seeing North American building codes reformed any time soon)

9. Smart sensors in bridges, levees, roads, buildings, vehicles, satellites  etc (smart dust) to provide a dynamic sense and respond environment- eco cities-earth with a fast track  nervous system

8. Move toward the electrification of transportation (GM, Ford, Chysler shifts production to electric cars and trucks)and smart road networks (ie smart retractable speed bumps, movable road mediums that adjust to traffic flow and congestion)

7.Biomimicry -- designing systems, objects and surfaces  based on natural biological models

6. Smart "emergent and self-organizing" traffic congestion systems that deal with natural complexity in unconventional ways

5.Infrastructure / congnistructure for Smart cities, that address and enforce  "system resilience" and mitigates the consequences future potential catastrophies (climate change, severe weather, man-made disasters, riots, etc)

4.Modermizing the electrical grid to accept consumer and commercial inputs from alternate energy and reducing power loss during distribution ( via super conductors and nanowires)

3.Adoption of smart alternate energy technologies (wind, water and sun) that approach price parity with gas, coal, nuclear and electricity. Move toward distributed and diversified energy production vs centralised energy production.

2. Energy harvesting- various smart technologies that convert latent heat, all light spectra and mechanical vibration into electricity. Objects that create their own energy

1. Internet of things (IofT) (or ObjectNet or O-Net) & the Internet of Services (IofS) or S-Net -Intelligent objects, systems and environments have their own unique IP address and are connected together, just like web pages are linked on the web today.

© 2005-2008

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Guest Speaker on emerging Smart Technologies, Strategic Planning, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"

- old Japanese proverb

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

IBM endorses smart technology and a smarter planet

A while back when I was at the Idea Lab at the Design Exchange, I remember sitting over a coffee and exploring a thought exercise with some clients.

The question under debate was: What are  the generic elements or activities that would accelerate any new technology platform, (such as smart technologies) and overcome the initial market interia. Simply put, Is there a generic technology evolution matrix?

We came up with over 25 items. (see related Post-Do you know how to spot opportunities?)

One was having cartoonists make fun of your technology ( No, smart technologies aren't on Dilbert's radar screen yet, but any day now I hope)  Another key event would be to have some influential CEO highlight the benefits of your technology in a milestone keynote speech (act as a complimentor-in business strategy terms. )

Well for smart technologies, that breakthrough event may have happened this month on November 6^th, when IBM’s CEO, Sam Palmisano, outlined a new agenda for building a smarter planet - during a speech at the Council on Foreign Relation. (hat tip to Adam Christensen at IBM HQ)

 

 

From IBM's blog:

"In the speech, he outlines a number of the challenges faced today by people, governments, businesses and organizations. A lack of clean water for a fifth of the world’s population. Energy systems that waste more energy than they produce. Traffic in our cities that clogs roads and chokes economic growth. 

Clearly there are no simple solutions for these problems.

Technology can play a big role in helping find answers to these problems. While the Internet currently connects more than a billion people, in just a few years, it will connect more than a trillion objects. Everything from cell phones, cars, roads, buildings, and even objects in nature itself, will have embedded technology and be connected to one another, enabling tremendous advances in how we understand how the world works and make smarter decisions to make it work better. 

But technology is just part of the solution. Without the people, policies and culture to inspire and execute the change, nothing ultimately gets done."

From Sam’s speech:

[...]   These collective realizations have reminded us that we are all now connected—economically, technically and socially. But we're also learning that being connected is not sufficient. Yes, the world continues to get "flatter." And yes, it continues to get smaller and more interconnected. But something is happening that holds even greater potential. In a word, our planet is becoming smarter.

This isn't just a metaphor.I mean infusing intelligence into the way the world literally works—the systems and processes that enable physical goods to be developed, manufactured, bought and sold… services to be delivered… everything from people and money to oil, water and electrons to move… and billions of people to work and live.

 What's making this possible?

• First, our world is becoming instrumented: The transistor, invented 60 years ago, is the basic building block of the digital age. Now, consider a world in which there are a billion transistors per human, each one costing one ten-millionth of a cent. We'll have that by 2010. There will likely be 4 billion mobile phone subscribers by the end of this year… and 30 billion Radio Frequency Identification tags produced globally within two years. Sensors are being embedded across entire ecosystems—supply-chains, healthcare networks, cities… even natural systems like rivers.
• Second, our world is becoming interconnected: Very soon there will be 2 billion people on the Internet. But in an instrumented world, systems and objects can now "speak" to one another, too. Think about the prospect of a trillion connected and intelligent things—cars, appliances, cameras, roadways, pipelines… even pharmaceuticals and livestock. The amount of information produced by the interaction of all those things will be unprecedented.
• Third, all things are becoming intelligent: New computing models can handle the proliferation of end-user devices, sensors and actuators and connect them with back-end systems. Combined with advanced analytics, those supercomputers can turn mountains of data into intelligence that can be translated into action, making our systems, processes and infrastructures more efficient, more productive and responsive—in a word, smarter.

What this means is that the digital and physical infrastructures of the world are converging. Computational power is being put into things we wouldn't recognize as computers. Indeed, almost anything—any person, any object, any process or any service, for any organization, large or small—can become digitally aware and networked.

With so much technology and networking abundantly available at such low cost, what wouldn't you enhance? What service wouldn't you provide a customer, citizen, student or patient? What wouldn't you connect? What information wouldn't you mine for insight?

The answer is, you or your competitor—another company, or another city or nation—will do all of that. You will do it because you can—the technology is available and affordable.

But there is another reason we will make our companies, institutions and industries smarter. Because we must. Not just at moments of widespread shock, but integrated into our day-to-day operations. These mundane processes of business, government and life—which are ultimately the source of those "surprising" crises—are not smart enough to be sustainable.

[...]

Leaders will need to hone their collaboration skills, because we will need leadership that pulls across systems. We will need to bring together stakeholders and experts from across business, government and academia, and all of them will need to move outside their traditional comfort zones.

I’m struck by the questions this raises. What investments need to be made by both public and private institutions? What policy issues need to be debated and resolved? What role can individual citizens and employees play in helping bring about meaningful change?

I’m also struck by the potential opportunities inherent in finding solutions to these problems. 

see full text of Sam Palmisano's speech

Walter Derzko

 

From IBM's blog:

"In the speech, he outlines a number of the challenges faced today by people, governments, businesses and organizations. A lack of clean water for a fifth of the world’s population. Energy systems that waste more energy than they produce. Traffic in our cities that clogs roads and chokes economic growth. 

Clearly there are no simple solutions for these problems.

Technology can play a big role in helping find answers to these problems. While the Internet currently connects more than a billion people, in just a few years, it will connect more than a trillion objects. Everything from cell phones, cars, roads, buildings, and even objects in nature itself, will have embedded technology and be connected to one another, enabling tremendous advances in how we understand how the world works and make smarter decisions to make it work better. 

But technology is just part of the solution. Without the people, policies and culture to inspire and execute the change, nothing ultimately gets done."

From Sam’s speech:

[...]   These collective realizations have reminded us that we are all now connected—economically, technically and socially. But we're also learning that being connected is not sufficient. Yes, the world continues to get "flatter." And yes, it continues to get smaller and more interconnected. But something is happening that holds even greater potential. In a word, our planet is becoming smarter.

This isn't just a metaphor.I mean infusing intelligence into the way the world literally works—the systems and processes that enable physical goods to be developed, manufactured, bought and sold… services to be delivered… everything from people and money to oil, water and electrons to move… and billions of people to work and live.

 What's making this possible?

• First, our world is becoming instrumented: The transistor, invented 60 years ago, is the basic building block of the digital age. Now, consider a world in which there are a billion transistors per human, each one costing one ten-millionth of a cent. We'll have that by 2010. There will likely be 4 billion mobile phone subscribers by the end of this year… and 30 billion Radio Frequency Identification tags produced globally within two years. Sensors are being embedded across entire ecosystems—supply-chains, healthcare networks, cities… even natural systems like rivers.
• Second, our world is becoming interconnected: Very soon there will be 2 billion people on the Internet. But in an instrumented world, systems and objects can now "speak" to one another, too. Think about the prospect of a trillion connected and intelligent things—cars, appliances, cameras, roadways, pipelines… even pharmaceuticals and livestock. The amount of information produced by the interaction of all those things will be unprecedented.
• Third, all things are becoming intelligent: New computing models can handle the proliferation of end-user devices, sensors and actuators and connect them with back-end systems. Combined with advanced analytics, those supercomputers can turn mountains of data into intelligence that can be translated into action, making our systems, processes and infrastructures more efficient, more productive and responsive—in a word, smarter.

What this means is that the digital and physical infrastructures of the world are converging. Computational power is being put into things we wouldn't recognize as computers. Indeed, almost anything—any person, any object, any process or any service, for any organization, large or small—can become digitally aware and networked.

With so much technology and networking abundantly available at such low cost, what wouldn't you enhance? What service wouldn't you provide a customer, citizen, student or patient? What wouldn't you connect? What information wouldn't you mine for insight?

The answer is, you or your competitor—another company, or another city or nation—will do all of that. You will do it because you can—the technology is available and affordable.

But there is another reason we will make our companies, institutions and industries smarter. Because we must. Not just at moments of widespread shock, but integrated into our day-to-day operations. These mundane processes of business, government and life—which are ultimately the source of those "surprising" crises—are not smart enough to be sustainable.

[...]

Leaders will need to hone their collaboration skills, because we will need leadership that pulls across systems. We will need to bring together stakeholders and experts from across business, government and academia, and all of them will need to move outside their traditional comfort zones.

I’m struck by the questions this raises. What investments need to be made by both public and private institutions? What policy issues need to be debated and resolved? What role can individual citizens and employees play in helping bring about meaningful change?

I’m also struck by the potential opportunities inherent in finding solutions to these problems. 

see full text of Sam Palmisano's speech

Walter Derzko

Smartpen records lectures and integrates with your in-class smart notes

Here's technology that I saw about 10 years ago being developed at BT and I wished I had it when I went to university. Now a commercial version is available in the US--Just in time for school.--Walter Derzko

From ABC News:

LiveScribe Pulse Smartpen

"Ever wish a pen could write for you?  The Pulse Smartpen can record lectures while you take notes.  Back at home, you simply tap on your notes with the pen and the spoken words for that portion of the notes are instantly replayed.  You can e-mail your written or audio notes to your classmates or study group or upload them to your Facebook page.  Special notebook paper allows you to tap on controls to turn your pen into a calculator or translator."

Price: $199 for the 2GB version or $149 for the 1GB version

From Hi-Tech Gear for the Home, School and Office

Self organizing smart traffic lights offer significant reductions in waiting times and fuel consumption

Society (and business schools) teach us that  being tidy is prefered to being  untidy, order trumps disorder and chaos.  We strive for regularity, vs erratic and irregular behavior in business.  Above all, we aim for predictability and especially control.

Dirk Helbing, a physicist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich, has been studying the seemingly chaotic movement of tens of thousands of cars on road networks. His conclusion? Complex systems seem to do better without us i.e without our helping hand of overarching control.

Problem:

Within the USA alone, the annual cost of congestion is estimated to be $63.1 billion US, caused by 3.7 billion hours of delays and 8.7 billion liters of “wasted” fuel, (according to D. Schrank and T. Lomax, Texas A & M University in College Station,The 2005 urban mobility report.  Texas Transportation Institute, 2005.)

In New Scientist recently, we see:

"Although the behaviour of individuals is often simple, the collective patterns to which it leads can be counter-intuitive, making common sense a faulty guide to what might happen.  For example, it is generally true that traffic jams become more likely as traffic density increases.  It's not always the case, though, as Helbing's group has shown."

Counter-intuitive example:

"Consider a two-lane road carrying both cars and trucks, where the cars are moving faster on average.  At low traffic densities, the cars have plenty of space to overtake and can easily pass the trucks.  As the traffic density increases, drivers find it more difficult to overtake because other vehicles are in the way.  However, evidence from simulations and real traffic flows shows that at a critical density of traffic, the obstruction to lane-changing begins to have a beneficial effect. Because drivers tend to stay in one lane, they disturb the flow of traffic less, leading to a higher total throughput of vehicles."

This would mean giving traffic lights a way to adapt their behaviour, which most of today's systems lack.  At the moment, engineers force traffic into patterns that appear favourable.  Lights on main roads stay green longer during peak hours, for example.  But it's the engineers who do this tuning based on average conditions observed in the past; most traffic lights don't have the flexibility to respond to changing conditions on their own. Engineers also take some things for granted, such as the notion that lights must be managed from a central control.

Smart Solution:

Self organizing smart traffic lights

Last year, Dirk Helbing and Stefan Lämmer at the Technical University of Dresden in Germany began exploring if traffic lights could be engineered, designed or intellivated (elevate intelligence) to cut congestion and reduce fuel use.

"Lights can do a better job, Helbing and Lämmer have found, if they are given some simple operating rules and left to organise their own solution.  To demonstrate this, they developed a mathematical model that assumed traffic flowed like a fluid, a well-established traffic engineering technique.  The model also describes what happens at road intersections, where traffic entering from one road has to leave by another, much like fluid moving through a network of pipes.

Of course, jams can arise if traffic entering a road overloads its capacity.  To avoid this, Helbing and Lämmer make the lights at each intersection respond to growing traffic pressure, like the people going through the passage.  Each set of lights carries sensors that feed information about the traffic conditions at a given moment into a computer, which then calculates the flow of vehicles expected in the near future.  The computer also works out how long the lights should stay green in order to clear the road and relieve the pressure.  In this way, each set of lights can estimate for itself how best to adapt to the conditions expected at the next moment.

Best left alone

This isn't enough, however, because the lights might adapt too much.  If they are only adapting to conditions locally, they might cause trouble further away.  To avoid this, Helbing and Lämmer have devised a scheme whereby neighbouring lights share their information so that what happens around one traffic light can affect how others respond.  By doing so, the self-organised lights prevent long jams from forming.

Despite the simplicity of these rules, they seem to work remarkably well.  Helbing and Lämmer have demonstrated in simulations that lights operating this way should achieve a significant reduction in overall travel times and keep no one waiting at a light too long (See diagram below). Nonetheless, the behaviour of the lights doesn't generally fit with human notions of what ought to be efficient.  "How long lights stay green is unpredictable," says Lämmer.  Yet the average journey times go down and become more predictable."

"What's more, the scheme eliminates other irritating problems that afflict traditional traffic control.  At quiet times, drivers typically have to wait far longer than is really necessary at intersections because the lights' schedules are designed to serve a large number of vehicles.  And in the middle of the night, lights keep stopping cars even when there is no need. The self-organising traffic scheme eliminates these problems because the lights remain responsive to local demands, for instance sensing an approaching car and changing to green to let it through."

"Town planners are beginning to look at self-organising lights as a practical solution to looming traffic congestion.  Helbing and Lämmer are working with a local traffic agency in Dresden, Germany, first to test and then hopefully to implement the idea.  In early simulations based on Dresden's road layout, they have had encouraging results.  "We've found significant reductions in waiting times and fuel consumption, and we can also accelerate public transport," says Lämmer.  Authorities in Zurich, Switzerland, have also been taken by the idea."

So, heads up...Toronto, Kyiv and Beijing...and other traffic-prone cities--Walter Derzko

Conclusion:

"The wider lesson is that we just can't trust our intuition when it comes to the super-complex systems that we depend on today.  We may never learn exactly how to control these systems in the traditional fashion and the best way to cope may be by learning new principles for letting them manage themselves." concludes New Scientist.

Source: New Scientist and Self-Control of Traffic Lights and Vehicle Flows in Urban Road Networks

Tomorrow: Adaptive Intelligent Cruise Control