Entrepreneurship and Innovation Today

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 13 of 28 Thirteen Recession wild card scenarios

Most people acknowledge that we are heading into uncharted waters in this recession / depression. Expect unexpected events seems to be the rule of thumb. So how is business supposed to function and plan for the near-term future? One way to reduce uncertainty is the use scenario planning and test “wild card’ assumptions. Here’s one that we offer to clients in the Opportunity Clinic:

 

Recession Wild Card #3 -Second global run on American banks ... What would your business do, if we saw a second global run on American banks?

 

Now just wait a minute? At this point, you are likely asking yourself….”I didn’t hear about the first run on US banks…when did this happen?

I bet 99.999% of North American didn’t hear about this either, unless you are a member of the UScongress or a political news junkie and watching the American  C-Span cable channel all day long. (hat tip to several Smart Economy blog readers from around the globe, who alerted us to this meltdown event, that’s been kept secret from most of the world…) see C-Span video entitled: Rep. Kanjorski: $550 Billion Disappeared in "Electronic Run On the Banks" below.

At 2 minutes, 20 seconds into this C-Span video clip, Rep.  Paul Kanjorski from Pennsylvania explains how the Federal Reserve told members of  Congress about a "tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the United States, to the tune of $550 billion dollars, back in September 2008." According to Kanjorski, this electronic transfer occurred over the period of just  two hours, before it was halted.

Here is a transcript of what Kanjorski actually confessed  in the video:

”Look…I was there when the secretary and the chairman of the Federal Reserve came those days and talked with members of Congress about what’s going on. .  It was about Sept 15 here are the facts and we don’t even talk about these things…. On Thursday  [Sept 15, 2008] at about  11 o’clock in  the morning,  the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw down of money market accounts in the USA, to the tune of $550 Billion dollars… was being drawn out, in a matter of an hour or two. The treasury opened up its window to help . It pumped $105 billion dollars into the system. …and quickly realized  that they could not stem the tide….we were having an electronic run on the banks…they decided to close the operation....close down the money accounts, and announced a guarantee of $250,000 per account, so there wouldn’t be further panic out there and that’s what actually happened. If they had not done that, their  estimation was that by 2 o’clock that afternoon,  $5 and a half  trillion dollars would been drawn out the money market system of the United States, would have collapsed the entire economy of the United States and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. Now, we talked at that time about what would have happened if that happened….. it would have been the end of our economic system and our political system”..

After some deep digging on the net and through various databases, we only found two sources that mention  this "secret financial meltdown, See full C-Span video clip here 

and Kanjorski: We came so close to complete financial collapse

 

Paul Kanjorski, who  serves on the US House Financial Services Committee and chairs its Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises, does not provide further details.

 

Not a hint officially from the US government or the Treasury about this e-run on banks..The only sign that something was wrong, in hindsight we see in the following press release, the day after the bank run:

 

September 16, 2008 HP-1142

Remarks by Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David H. McCormick at Future  of Consumer Payments Conference

 

Washington

– Good afternoon. Thank you for that kind introduction, Martin. And thanks to you, to Bob and to Ken Chenault for the invitation to be here today. I am pleased to join with you for this conference on "the quiet revolution in money," the implications for our citizens, our economy, and financial system of the dramatic change in consumer payments. I'd like to begin by passing along the regrets of Secretary Paulson who is focused today on market developments and has asked me to speak on his behalf.

 

 

Remember-this was right after the Leahman Brothers and AIG affairs. Who got spooked? who panicked? and who was taking their  money out? The Russians? The Asians? The Gulf Petro-Sates? The Sovereign Wealth Funds? All four? Who had a total of $5 and a half trillion dollars invested in US money market accounts? We may never know for sure.

 

 

Are you shocked yet?  Did you hear about this in the mainstream American or Canadian press? Well, I didn’t either. Just goes to show you that openness and the truth were the  first casualties of this recession / depression.

 

Thirteen Recession wild card Scenarios

“Chance favors the prepared mind said L Pasteur.  

 

So, in the Opportunity Clinic we’ve conceived and  offer 13  “Recession wild card scenarios” that every business person, entrepreneur and entrepreneur want-to-be  should devote some thinking time to,  explore the consequences of  and consider alternative courses of action in advance of the event hitting you.

 

If  “Recession wild card scenario #6” were to happened:

• what early warning signals could I look out for?
• what circumstances could trigger each wild card scenario?
• how do I mitigate its negative impacts?
• how do I identify, cease and leverage the opportunities?
• do I have a “game plan” drawn out in advance, should each of these wild card scenarios come to pass?

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 13 of 28 Recession wild card scenarios

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 11 of 28 Pretending and Deception as an Opportunity Space

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 10 of 28 "First Impressions” trap

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 9 of 28 The dichotomous thinking trap

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 8 of 28 Industry Architecture Opportunities

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for managing your business in a recession Part 7 of 28  Geopolitical Opportunities;

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

Pretending and Deception as an Opportunity Space; Part 11 of 28; The Opportunity Clinic © TM 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession

The Opportunity Clinic © TM  28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession

Part 11 of 28 Pretending and Deception as an OpportunitySpace

Harmless white lies and more damaging forms of deception seem to be increasingly more frequent events in society and in the business world, if you follow the business press...[..]… Start-up entrepreneurs are often forced to pretend (to be something they are not yet or to know someone that they don’t to gain customer acceptance and to develop a needed perceived reputation). Deception is not a single point but a continuum along a spectrum. It can range from supposedly “harmless” white lies and deception on one end, where no one is hurt  (see Canadian billionaire example below) to deliberate deception and scams where there are real victims (Think Ponzi schemes and Bernie Madoff, who made off with billions of dollars) . It also surfaces a range of ethical questions, such as.... Under what different circumstances and cultures, will these tactics be more or less acceptable? ….more

http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2009/02/the-opportunity-clinic-28-tactics-for-managing-your-business-in-a-recession-part-10-of-28-pretending.html

 

Please post your replies in the comments section below.

To incorporate the Opportunity Clinic into your class,  business planning process or to arrange for a key note speech for a future meeting, conference or forum, contact us by email

Call for Papers - "Technological Entrepreneurship: Opportunity for High Growth Firms" International Journal of Entrepreneurial Venturing (IJEV)

Call for Papers - "Technological Entrepreneurship:

Opportunity

for High Growth Firms" International Journal of Entrepreneurial Venturing (IJEV)

 

Dear Colleagues

 

Please consider the CfP presented below.

 

Good ventures and best regards

 

João Leitão

 

IST,

Technical

University

of

Lisbon

Department of Engineering Management

Av. Rovisco Pais,

1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal

 

Ph.: + 351.214.233.585

Fax: + 351.214.233.568

https://fenix.ist.utl.pt/homepage/ist24901

 

 

 

International Journal of Entrepreneurial Venturing (IJEV) - Call for Papers - "Technological Entrepreneurship:

Opportunity

for High Growth Firms"

 

Guest Editors:

Dr. João Leitão,

IST-Technical

University

of

Lisbon

,

Portugal

Dr. Frank Lasch and Dr. Calin Gurau,

GSCM-Montpellier Business School

,

France

 

This special issue spotlights technological entrepreneurship as an opportunity for promoting the development of high growth firms. The principal motivation for SMEs' growth is the search for a minimum scale of efficiency that allows survival. The alternative sources of growth deserve further research, especially the role played by the R&D effort and other categories of intangible assets in explaining the growth of SME's in high-tech industries.

 

As a consequence of the high level of risk associated with innovating activities which could be incompatible with small companies, it is necessary to wait some time for the desired positive effect of R&D expenditure on SMEs' growth to appear. Thus, public policies for fostering high growth firms are needed, given the various needs associated with the greater growth in high tech industries compared to more traditional sectors, as a consequence of a minimum scale of efficiency corresponding to greater size compared to more traditional sectors.

 

The issue will therefore draw attention ways in which technological entrepreneurship is an effective opportunity for contributing to more rapid and efficient growth. The strategic bet on high growth firms should be supported by public policies oriented for reinforcing entrepreneurial growth, in order to overcome recessive scenarios and to reinforce the competitiveness of national economies, on a microeconomic basis. As we acknowledge that technological entrepreneurship is an eclectic topic, papers that address entrepreneurship and growth from multiple levels of analysis are welcome.

 

Subject Coverage

 

Topics of interest to this IJEV focus issue include, but are not limited to:

 

•          Entrepreneurship opportunities in high-tech emerging industries

•          Institutional framework and gazelles

•          Intangible assets and growth in high-tech industries

•          Public policies for fostering high growth firms

•          Regional disparities of high-tech entrepreneurship

•          Serial entrepreneurship in high-tech industries

•          Spin-offs firms and gazelles from universities

•          Survival and growth of innovation and technology based firms

•          Technological entrepreneurship and marketing

•          Technology, innovation and organisational change

  

 

For more information and to submit your paper please visit inderscience.com/browse/callpaper.php?callID=1017

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 9 of 28 The dichotomous thinking trap

Many novel or even seasoned serial entrepreneurs get struck in what I call the dichotomous thinking trap. The noun dichotomy is defined by Webster’s dictionary as:

1: a division into two especially mutually exclusive or contradictory groups or entities <the dichotomy between theory and practice> ; also : the process or practice of making such a division <dichotomy of the population into two opposed classes>

2: the phase of the moon or an inferior planet in which half its disk appears illuminated

3 a: bifurcation; ; especially : repeated bifurcation (as of a plant's stem) b: a system of branching in which the main axis forks repeatedly into two branches c: branching of an ancestral line into two equal diverging branches

4: something with seemingly contradictory qualities <it's a dichotomy, this opulent Ritz-style luxury in a place that fronts on a boat harbor — Jean T. Barrett>

Dichotomous thinking is narrow thinking that divides the world, your problems or solutions into only two opposing camps: Yes/No; right/wrong; black/white; Ying / Jang; in-source/ outsource etc. Mainly that’s how the brain works in creating information patterns. Many people don’t even bother to think beyond these self-imposed, artificial, cognitive boundaries to come up with a third, forth or fifth option.

Here’s a case study of one Canadian business that broke free of the dichotomous thinking trap (source:  from the Opportunity Clinic^TM   workshop notes)

 

(continued)

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 9 of 28 The dichotomous thinking trap

Many novel or even seasoned serial entrepreneurs get struck in what I call the dichotomous thinking trap. The noun dichotomy is defined by Webster’s dictionary as:

1: a division into two especially mutually exclusive or contradictory groups or entities <the dichotomy between theory and practice> ; also : the process or practice of making such a division <dichotomy of the population into two opposed classes>

2: the phase of the moon or an inferior planet in which half its disk appears illuminated

3 a: bifurcation; ; especially : repeated bifurcation (as of a plant's stem) b: a system of branching in which the main axis forks repeatedly into two branches c: branching of an ancestral line into two equal diverging branches

4: something with seemingly contradictory qualities <it's a dichotomy, this opulent Ritz-style luxury in a place that fronts on a boat harbor — Jean T. Barrett>

Dichotomous thinking is narrow thinking that divides the world, your problems or solutions into only two opposing camps: Yes/No; right/wrong; black/white; Ying / Jang; in-source/ outsource etc. Mainly that’s how the brain works in creating information patterns. Many people don’t even bother to think beyond these self-imposed, artificial, cognitive boundaries to come up with a third, forth or fifth option.

Here’s a case study of one Canadian business that broke free of the dichotomous thinking trap (source:  from the Opportunity Clinic^TM   workshop notes)

There’s in-sourcing and outsourcing that most business people consider when they ponder the strategic decision-Do I make things internally or let some else do it? And then they stop thinking at this point, because no other options seem obvious. But what about another angle- I call it “tethered or conditional outsourcing”

"In the late eighties, before the advent of ATM’s and the Internet, a Markham-Ontario based engineering services firm, called  Tertec  had designed a (telephone) networked robotic self standing video tape store system (VideoStar Video Machines) that could not only dispense video tapes, but also take them back ready for rental again, with complete automatic inventory management and a ton of other features that were state-of-the-art back then. 

To produce these video machine kiosks, Tertec had, in the early Nineties a relatively big staff –over 40 people with tools and machinery to process metal, such as lathes, milling machines and the like. This video machine technology business was then sold to a German company called Konzepta GmbH, who also had offices in Calgary, because of their other interests in oil and real estate.   As part of the deal, Tertec built them a plant in Calgary to manufacture these video machine kiosks.

Then they were faced with a problem-the overhead of managing the now-redundant Toronto

mechanical staff, as well as paying them and keeping them busy became a big burden on the firm.  Rather than just lay them off, Tertec tried another creative option-they offered the mechanical staff some of the machines for free, so that they could start their own businesses with the proviso that Tertec would receive priority, if they came to them with jobs and orders.  Some of the more entrepreneurial employees jumped at the chance to start their own spin-off business and agreed to the conditions.  This became a win-win situation for all parties concerned as everybody benefited from the deal. 

The moral of the story:

Rather than laying off people, companies should assist their staff to get jobs elsewhere or help them start their own businesses (with similar conditions that Tertec offered its staff), so that when needed, these people would be ready to help the companies as subcontractors or outsourced workers.  This would mitigate the pain of job losses and enrich the lives of the people as well as benefit the companies in the long run.  As Stelco used to say “Our product is steel but our strength is our people”!

 

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 8 of 28 Industry Architecture Opportunities

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for managing your business in a recession Part 7 of 28  Geopolitical Opportunities;

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

Related Posts over that past year:

·         Opportunity Recognition in Difficult Times

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn – June 25, 2008, Ontario College of Art Design, Toronto, ON

·         Recession-Proofing your Business-Strategies and Tactics for smoother sailing in turbulent seas

·         Master Class in Opportunity Recognition for entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs> May 30th 2008> University of Toronto

·         Turning Misery into Opportunity

·         Vacuum leaves pullout opportunities;

·         How will baby boomers handle the recession? Zoomers, Doomers, Gloomers, Opportuneurs

·         Recession, Depression and Shortages as Opportunities

·         Restructuring of American Business-A New Business Model?

·         Using New Yorker Cartoons for Opportunity Recognition /Sense-making & Pattern Recognition

·         Text Mining for S&T Scouting, Foresight and Opportunity Recognition

·         The Opportunity Clinic-swapping opportunity scenarios 08-002

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Geopolitical Opportunities; The hypothesis of Economic Warfare

Things are never what they appear to be, especially in geopolitics. Former Forbes writer and business and energy journalist Jim (or James) Norman, who wrote the book- The Oil Card, and blew the whistle on Enron with the SEC, argues that the United States manipulated the price of oil as a kind of economic weapon against countries such as Russia and China, implying that it overtly uses oil as an economic weapon of financial destruction, and that we, the  car drivers and gas consumers in the West are just collateral damage in this economic warfare game. In the futures exchange (NYMEX), an unlimited amount of money from pension funds was used to overwhelm short sellers of crude oil, as a way of running up the price, he explained.

China was hurt by higher oil prices much more than the United States, and has experienced reduced exports, the closing of factories, and massive unreported unemployment, he noted.

The opposite technique, the lowering of oil prices, is currently wrecking the Russian economy, Normansuggested. Russia  has little besides its natural resources, and the softening of the crude market could eventually force regime change there, and in China he said.The real reason America went to war with Iraq was because of China, and it had nothing to do with WMD or terrorism, Norman asserted. As sanctions were lifting in 2003, Saddam was going to cut a deal with China so they could acquire ownership of underground oil fields, and the US sought to prevent this, he said. While the US is propping up India as a foil to China, Russia is now moving in a direction of realigning with China, against the US and Western interests, he added.

Norman

provides some fascinating, logical common sense insights on what could happen next in the global geopolitical space. He gets you thinking about some probable what-if scenarios and what the resulting consequences might be and where the business opportunities might emerge.

For more, See our sister blog Smart Economy for the rest of the item

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for managing your business in a recession Part 7 of 28  Geopolitical Opportunities; The hypothesis of Economic Warfare

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

International Journal of Technoentrepreneurship (V1N4); Table of Contents

Table of Contents – International Journal of Technoentrepreneurship (V1N4)

. Maija Renko, Malin Brannback, Alan Carsrud: “Sources, development and uses of innovation in modern biotechnology”

. Jiang Wei, Haiyan Zhu, Khaleel Malik: “The impacts of networking on the innovation process inside industrial cluster firms: experiences from China”

. Besnik A. Krasniqi, Enver A. Kutllovci: “ Determinants of innovation: evidence from Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary”

. Christian Serarols, David Urbano: “Do dot.com and traditional entrepreneurs succeed in the same way? A multiple case study in Catalonia”

 

Dear All,

 Please find below the Table of Contents for the Vol.1 Number 4 Issue of IJTE. We are always happy to receive new submissions, including case studies, book reviews and interviews. If you submit, you will get reviews in less than 3 months on average and if accepted, your paper will be published in the following 12 to 18 months, so don’t hesitate to submit: www.inderscience.com/ijte.

Best Regards

Francois Therin, D.B.A.

Editor, International Journal of Technoentrepreneurship

Associate Dean, Executive Education (Europe) and

Associate Professor, U21 Global (www.u21global.com)

Emails: [email protected]

[email protected]

What leads to greater happiness? Buying experiences, or possessions?

Can money make us happy if we spend it on the right purchases?

 

A new psychology study suggests that buying life experiences rather than material possessions leads to greater happiness for both the consumer and those around them. The findings will be presented today, at the Society for Personality and Social Psychology annual meeting on Feb. 7, 2009.

The study demonstrates that experiential purchases, such as a meal out or theater tickets, result in increased well-being because they satisfy higher order needs, specifically the need for social connectedness and vitality -- a feeling of being alive.

"These findings support an extension of basic need theory, where purchases that increase psychological need satisfaction will produce the greatest well-being," said Ryan Howell, assistant professor of psychology at San Francisco State University.

.

Participants in the study were asked to write reflections and answer questions about their recent purchases. Participants indicated that experiential purchases represented money better spent and greater happiness for both themselves and others. The results also indicate that experiences produce more happiness regardless of the amount spent or the income of the consumer.

Experiences also lead to longer-term satisfaction.

 

"Purchased experiences provide memory capital," Howell said. "We don't tend to get bored of happy memories like we do with a material object.

"People still believe that more money will make them happy, even though 35 years of research has suggested the opposite," Howell said. "Maybe this belief has held because money is making some people happy some of the time, at least when they spend it on life experiences."

The study called "The mediators of experiential purchases: Determining the impact of psychological need satisfaction" was conducted by Ryan Howell, assistant professor of psychology at San Francisco State University and SF State graduate Graham Hill.

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

Most executives or entrepreneurs that I talk to have elaborate growth strategies  for the upturn in a business cycle but only a single approach in the reverse down leg- CUTS. Be they:  executing layoffs, canceling previously signed contracts, killing product lines or leaning on clients to pay bills faster-they form a narrow mindset. Although necessary in many cases, they are not very creative nor original. In fact, this single-minded mono-strategic approach may be disastrous for your firm.

All baseball, football and basketball teams have set plays in their playbook roster (such as the flea flicker or the "hail mary" in football, or the bunt and double play in baseball) that they practice  religously for unqiue circumstances in a game situation. The sma elogic doesn't tranfer into business for some reason. Funny that CEO practice simulations for problem solving or crisis mitigation (ie, WMD,  SARS or Avian Flu) but they don't spend nearly enough "thinking time" for opportunity spotting or opportunity design.

From the jargon in our Opportunity Clinic © ™ workshop, your Recession Playbook requires six sets of strategies and not just one.

1. coping or surviving strategies for the down leg of a recession,
2. coping or surviving strategies for the bottom of a recession, (it may stretch out to be a long one)
3. opportunity-spotting or opportunity-designing strategies for the down leg of a recession,
4. opportunity-spotting or opportunity-designing strategies for the bottom of a recession,
5. opportunity-spotting or opportunity-designing strategies for the up leg of a recovery, and
6. a cluster of "Hail Mary" strategies in case all bets are off and we head into an honest to goodness depression

The above opportunity windows will vary depending on what the bottom looks like and the depth and breadth of the economic fall. As I've commented on this blog before, we could be facing a v-shaped bottom, a V-shaped bottom, a W-shaped bottom, a vW-shaped bottom, and L-shaped flat bottom or and extended L-shaped flat bottom. The Opportunity Clinic has over 300 generic Opportunity Scenarios or Windows that executives can use as templates to explore or design new "opportunity spaces" for their business to not just survive but thrive in a recession.

Newsweek supports this notion, writing this week:

 

“In theory, every manager should have the skills needed to guide companies through a recession, the way every baseball player is supposed to know how to bunt or steal a base.” …[but most don't]…"After spending their careers in single-minded pursuit of growth, business leaders have to adjust their mentality,"…[…]… "The new reality is that, barring acquisitions, [the average] company will be smaller two years from now than it is today."

If you are interested in extending your Recession Playbook, call us or email us (by clicking on my name in the signature below) to get more information about the Opportunity Clinic © ™.

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

Related Posts over that past year:

·         Opportunity Recognition in Difficult Times

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn – June 25, 2008, Ontario College of Art Design, Toronto, ON

·         Recession-Proofing your Business-Strategies and Tactics for smoother sailing in turbulent seas

·         Master Class in Opportunity Recognition for entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs> May 30th 2008> University of Toronto

·         Turning Misery into Opportunity

·         Vacuum leaves pullout opportunities;

·         How will baby boomers handle the recession? Zoomers, Doomers, Gloomers, Opportuneurs

·         Recession, Depression and Shortages as Opportunities

·         Restructuring of American Business-A New Business Model?

·         Using New Yorker Cartoons for Opportunity Recognition /Sense-making & Pattern Recognition

·         Text Mining for S&T Scouting, Foresight and Opportunity Recognition

·         The Opportunity Clinic-swapping opportunity scenarios 08-002

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Most executives or entrepreneurs that I talk to have elaborate growth strategies  for the upturn in a business cycle but only a single approach in the reverse down leg- CUTS. Be they:  executing layoffs, canceling previously signed contracts, killing product lines or leaning on clients to pay bills faster-they form a narrow mindset. Although necessary in many cases, they are not very creative nor original. In fact, this single-minded mono-strategic approach may be disastrous for your firm.

All baseball, football and basketball teams have set plays in their playbook roster (such as the flea flicker or the "hail mary" in football, or the bunt and double play in baseball) that they practice  religously for unqiue circumstances in a game situation. The sma elogic doesn't tranfer into business for some reason. Funny that CEO practice simulations for problem solving or crisis mitigation (ie, WMD,  SARS or Avian Flu) but they don't spend nearly enough "thinking time" for opportunity spotting or opportunity design.

From the jargon in our Opportunity Clinic © ™ workshop, your Recession Playbook requires six sets of strategies and not just one.

1. coping or surviving strategies for the down leg of a recession,
2. coping or surviving strategies for the bottom of a recession, (it may stretch out to be a long one)
3. opportunity-spotting or opportunity-designing strategies for the down leg of a recession,
4. opportunity-spotting or opportunity-designing strategies for the bottom of a recession,
5. opportunity-spotting or opportunity-designing strategies for the up leg of a recovery, and
6. a cluster of "Hail Mary" strategies in case all bets are off and we head into an honest to goodness depression

The above opportunity windows will vary depending on what the bottom looks like and the depth and breadth of the economic fall. As I've commented on this blog before, we could be facing a v-shaped bottom, a V-shaped bottom, a W-shaped bottom, a vW-shaped bottom, and L-shaped flat bottom or and extended L-shaped flat bottom. The Opportunity Clinic has over 300 generic Opportunity Scenarios or Windows that executives can use as templates to explore or design new "opportunity spaces" for their business to not just survive but thrive in a recession.

Newsweek supports this notion, writing this week:

 

“In theory, every manager should have the skills needed to guide companies through a recession, the way every baseball player is supposed to know how to bunt or steal a base.” …[but most don't]…"After spending their careers in single-minded pursuit of growth, business leaders have to adjust their mentality,"…[…]… "The new reality is that, barring acquisitions, [the average] company will be smaller two years from now than it is today."

If you are interested in extending your Recession Playbook, call us or email us (by clicking on my name in the signature below) to get more information about the Opportunity Clinic © ™.

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

Related Posts over that past year:

·         Opportunity Recognition in Difficult Times

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn – June 25, 2008, Ontario College of Art Design, Toronto, ON

·         Recession-Proofing your Business-Strategies and Tactics for smoother sailing in turbulent seas

·         Master Class in Opportunity Recognition for entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs> May 30th 2008> University of Toronto

·         Turning Misery into Opportunity

·         Vacuum leaves pullout opportunities;

·         How will baby boomers handle the recession? Zoomers, Doomers, Gloomers, Opportuneurs

·         Recession, Depression and Shortages as Opportunities

·         Restructuring of American Business-A New Business Model?

·         Using New Yorker Cartoons for Opportunity Recognition /Sense-making & Pattern Recognition

·         Text Mining for S&T Scouting, Foresight and Opportunity Recognition

·         The Opportunity Clinic-swapping opportunity scenarios 08-002

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Sixth Annual Meeting of the Atlanta Competitive Advantage Conference (ACAC) -CfP

SIXTH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE  ATLANTA COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE CONFERENCE (ACAC)

  

=======================================================

 CALL FOR PAPERS * CALL FOR PAPERS * CALL FOR PAPERS

=======================================================

 May 19 to 21, 2009 (Tuesday to Thursday), at the

Roberto C. Goizueta Business School, Emory University

-------------------------------------------------------

KEYNOTE SPEAKERS (alphabetically):

- Rajshree Agarwal, University of Illinois

- Juan Alcacer, Harvard University

- Bruce Kogut, Columbia University

- Marvin Lieberman, UCLA

- Joe Porac, New York University

PROGRAM CHAIR & ORGANIZER:

- Russell Coff, Emory University

ACAC FOUNDER & CHAIRPERSON:

- Rich Makadok, Emory University

CONFERENCE ORGANIZING COMMITTEE:

- Russ Coff & Rich Makadok, Emory University

- Asli Arikan, Ilgaz Arikan, Bill Bogner, Irene Duhaime,

    & Greg Henley, Georgia State University

- Marco Ceccagnoli, Vivek Ghosal, & Frank Rothaermel,

    Georgia Institute of Technology

-------------------------------------------------------

ACADEMIC SPONSORS:

- Emory University's Roberto C. Goizueta

   Business School

- Georgia State University's J. Mack Robinson College

   of Business

- Georgia Institute of Technology's College

   of Management

CO-SPONSORS:

- Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation of Kansas City

- Herman J. Russell Sr. International Center for

    Entrepreneurship

CORPORATE SPONSOR:

- Beckmill Research

-------------------------------------------------------

The "big picture" strategy questions...

- Where do competitive & distinctive advantages

   come from, and how are they sustained?

- Why do some companies & new ventures

   consistently outperform their competitors?

- Why do some businesses succeed in the same

    industry environments where others fail?

- And what, if anything, can managers and

   entrepreneurs actually do about it?

-------------------------------------------------------

The aim of this annual conference series is to

improve our ability to answer these "big picture"

questions and other related questions by engaging

some of the world's top researchers on competitive

advantage in Atlanta for 3 days a year.  

We expect to:

- Share cutting-edge research, ideas, and theories.

- Foster collaborative research efforts.

- Build a worldwide association and network of

   researchers who are dedicated to advancing the

   state of knowledge about competitive advantage.

-------------------------------------------------------

The conference organizers invite the submission

of unpublished working papers that advance the

state of knowledge about competitive advantage...

- Conference registration fee will be WAIVED for

    ALL authors of accepted papers. Authors of

    accepted papers will also receive catered

    meals and deeply discounted hotel rates

    (but will be expected to pay for their own

    hotel, airfare, & other travel expenses).

 

- Submitted papers will undergo a selection

    process, NOT a formal review process -- so

    we will not provide reviews or other feedback

   on any submitted manuscript.

- Submitting a paper represents a commitment

    that at least one of the authors will attend

    and participate in whatever session the paper

    gets scheduled for, whenever during the

    conference that session is scheduled. Authors

    who commit to attend and participate but then

    fail to do so, for any reason other than an

    immediate genuine emergency, may be excluded

    from participation in future ACAC meetings.

- In addition to regular paper-presentation sessions,

   authors may also choose to allow their submitted

   papers to be considered for two other alternative

    session formats: a poster-presentation session

    (held at the time and place where refreshments

    are being served, in order to maximize audience

    size), or a research-development workshop session

    (where authors to provide feedback to each other

    on their papers, under the guidance of an

    experienced facilitator).

- Papers must be submitted via the Social Science

    Research Network (SSRN) conference submission system at

    http://hq.ssrn.com/conference=Atlanta-Comp-Advantage

    Submitters must create a SSRN account. Any technical

    problems with the SSRN submission system should be

    reported by e-mailing [email protected] or

    calling 877-SSRNHELP (877.777.6435 or 585.442.8170).

 

- Papers must be submitted in PDF format, but

    documents can be converted to PDF format for FREE

    (with no software required) by using any of five

    on-line file-conversion web sites -– see the

    submission web page above for links and details.

 

- When submitting a paper, please select 3 to 5 topic

    codes from the ACAC topics list that best describe

    your paper's topic. These codes are listed under

    topic headings in the Classification section of the

    submission process.

 

- The DEADLINE for submissions is Friday

    February 27, 2009.

-------------------------------------------------------

 

Additional information about the Atlanta

Competitive Advantage Conference

is available on-line at:

 http://www.bus.emory.edu/Rmakadok/ACAC/

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page