Economists usually define a recession as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.
Last Friday (May 30th) Statistics Canada announced, (as we expected and without much fanfair,) that in the first quarter the GDP in Canada had declined (-.1%). It was down into negative territory for the first time since that last "dot.com bubble" recession -five years ago. Many analysts expect another small contraction in the second quarter, as well.
Many of the early warning signs or weak signals of change were already visible last year in Canada and the USA. Shipments into America's largest ocean port started to level off and decline back in 2007. Hot housing sales have begun to level and cool off in some of Canada's booming residential markets, following the USA lead. The strong Canadian dollar was playing havoc with exports to the US from Canada. Soaring energy and gas prices are forcing commuters to take drastic conservation measures, not seen since the last recession. In the US, the average price of a gallon of gasoline rose 4 cents to hit $3.98 today, the highest price ever recorded according to the energy department. Some people like George Soros even feel that gas and food commodities are exhibiting a classic parabolic bubble and are due to burst. Added to that the US is stuck in an economic paradox which the textbooks say isn't suppose to happen-the housing bust is deflationary while peaking oil prices are inflationary-leaving policy makers in a quandry.
Yet, within all this chaos and change there will be ample chance for business opportunties and for innovation for those who are savvy enough to spot or anticipate those opportunity scenarios in advance and who have the resources to take advantage of the situation.
Last Friday, I conducted a general Master Class on Opportunity Recognition for Entrepreneurs and Intrapreneurs which has already received favourable reviews in the blogosphere from participants.
Based on the overwhelming favourable feedback, I'm planning a followup workshop in Toronto on the 25th June, which will specifically focus on Recession-Proofing your Business-Strategies and Tactics for smoother sailing in turbulent seas, using the Opportunity Clinic process.
Stay tuned for details this week.
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