I was thinking about this question the other day and here’s my partial list. Alot will depend on the length and severity of the recession or depression though.
- Alberta and BC (due to pending Olympics) over Ontario,
- Canada more so then the USA,
- Eventually, the Euro and the Canadian dollar over the US dollar ( the longer the recession gets)
- the Creative and Service class (more prone) over the working class,
- the US military and military spending (in the USA, China and Israel at least , not Russia),
- USA government deficit spending, (makes you wonder how far and long it can go?)
- arms trading and manufacturing, Odd you don't hear about arms manufacturers crying for governments bailouts because banks have stopped extending credit lines to them, do you?
- Somali pirates,
- SPAM the meat and the internet scourge,
- Walmart and McDonald’s (so far, but watch for drop/collapse in ocean maritime trade to tell you if Walmart is headed for trouble)
- Cash-flush businesses who anticipated the recession who will be in a position to buy up fire-sale competitors as they go out of business
- Easian auto makers over North American auto manufacturers
- New infrastructure projects (roads, electric grid, bridges, sewers, water ) but not oil/ gas pipelines
- Inshoring or back-shoring vs offshoring
- Complementors and intergrator businesses and not employees
- Entrepreneurs who are opportunity savvy enough to turn chaos and change and emerging technologies (nanotech, biotech, smart technologies) into new opportunity scenarios. ( more wealth and US millionaires emerged out of the quarter century long, 19th century depression, then any other time in history, according to Malcom Gladwell, in Outliers)
- energy substitutes for oil, gas and coal if they hit price parity with fossil fuels or electricity (4th generation biofuels)
- commercially viable cost saving technology
- Dollar stores, shoe repairs, DIY beer making and wine making, second hand stores & eBay, swap sites, barter
Think of any more? Please add it to the comments section below
Walter Derzko
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