The top three concerns of government these days have to be: 1) the economy, 2) terrorism and 3)energy security....in a way they are all interlinked and impact each other.
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) in the USA has released a series of public reports over the past year looking at scenarios for 2025. One report called Disruptive Civil Technologies Six Technologies with Potential Impacts of US interest out to 2025, covers 6 technology scenarios: Biogerontechnology, Energy Storage Materials, Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals, Clean Coal Technologies, Service Robotics, and The Internet of Things. The section on Energy Storage Materials is particularly insightful.
Why Are Energy Storage Materials Potentially Disruptive?
The term Energy Storage Materials encompasses a wide range of materials and techniques for storing energy, each with varying levels of potential disruption. This profile focuses on three such energy storage materials groups-battery materials, ultracapacitors and hydrogen storage materials (particularly for fuel cells). They have in common the potential to disrupt the way energy is stored and distributed in two main industry sectors, transportation and portable devices. Within these energy storage materials groups, both synergy and competitive tension exists. In some manifestations of their potential disruptions the technologies will work in parallel; in others they will compete with each other.
The biggest level of disruption that could occur, both in economic terms and in terms of global socio-economic structure, would be the potential for one of these technologies (or a combination) to lead to a paradigm shift away from fossil fuels. In this context, one potential scenario is based on a move to a hydrogen economy. Such a move will largely depend on the ability to generate hydrogen from a non-petroleum source. It might also be important for hydrogen generated from natural gas or coal. Such a move will be very dramatic if the source of the hydrogen is water that has been split by a non-fossil source of electricity, including nuclear, solar, wind, or other alternatives.
Potential Impacts of Energy Storage Materials on US National Power
Depending on the path of the future scenario, energy storage materials could have a substantial impact on the four elements of national power:
Geopolitical: Energy storage materials could have a profound impact on the geopolitical balance of power. Some forecasters predict that oil has already or soon will reach its production peak, just as many countries, such as China and India, are beginning to expand their economies and place more demand on oil resources. Cheap reliable sources of alternative energy storage could reduce the demand for oil, particularly for transportation, though other primary sources of energy (specifically, electricity) will be necessary to supply the energy to recharge batteries, provide the charge for ultracapacitors, or generate hydrogen. Reduced oil demand would insulate the United States from its dependency on foreign sources of oil. On the hand, nations reliant on petroleum as a major source of revenue would find that they would have to transition their economies, or risk a substantial reduction in living standards. Such a situation could destabilize some already fragile regions.
Economic: A transition to a hydrogen economy, and to greater use of other energy storage materials, would provide a large opportunity in the production of fuel cells and fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen generation and storage infrastructure, advanced batteries and ultracapacitor production and materials. From a transportation perspective, gasoline retailers would have to transition their infrastructure to provide onsite generation and storage of hydrogen, creating a demand for local high-voltage electricity substations. Any move away from hybrids to full electric vehicles would be detrimental to manufacturers of internal combustion engines. Assuming these new sources of power are as cheap to the US end user (be they auto manufacturers or consumers), then the transition should be economically positive at a national level, due to the reduction in demand for overseas oil (and assuming increased electricity requirements are from indigenous sources).
Military: The military has a substantial demand for offsite and portable power. Increases in energy density anticipated through this disruptive technology would provide greater autonomy of operation for field devices, and might enable remote sensors to have a greater lifetime. The high bursts of power provided by ultracapacitors can provide new weapon capabilities.
Cultural: Assuming an ample supply of energy, social cohesion is little impacted by the precise type of energy source. That situation is changing at the fringes as some small numbers of consumers choose to purchase higher cost green energy supplies, and certainly a transition to any new energy technology that would have less environmental impact would be in tune with consumer concerns. A move to a hydrogen economy could impact social cohesion as a result of any positive economic benefit that a reduced reliance on oil provided, in the form of new jobs. Ultimately, the largest impact on social cohesion would accrue if a hydrogen economy (supported by other forms of primary electricity generation) was able to mitigate against the impact of a future world with dwindling oil reserves.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
The key uncertainties in the energy storage materials technology field tend to fall along two major axes:
- Developments in basic materials science.
- Choices in terms of global national energy policy.
The key uncertainty in materials science is the extent to which progress is made in a wide variety of materials required for new advanced batteries, ultracapacitors and for efficiently storing hydrogen.
The axis for global national energy policy reflects the choices (and needs) to push alternative fuels, or to continue and further develop fossil fuels.
On the basis of the two axes of uncertainty, four distinct scenarios seem plausible, including one that is dark and negative ("Running on Empty"), one that is conservative, having small technology breakthroughs ("Competitive Conservatism"), and two that have different types of huge technology breakthroughs ("Super Clean" and "Hydrogen Economy"). We describe each of these scenarios briefly and detail the opportunities and threats in the two scenarios that reflect similar energy policies but at the extremes of technological progress.
Scenario 1: Running on Empty
In "Running on Empty" no breakthroughs occur in solving fundamental problems in energy technologies. Globally, countries are forced to rely on fossil fuels and either elect not to install large amounts of nuclear power or fail to do so fast enough. At some point, depending on the balance between dwindling reserves and expansion, particularly in Asia, economies will begin to stagnate as the price of oil increases. The population declines as it ages, countries periodically go to war over energy resources, and conservation is forced on consumers by lack of availability.
Scenario 2: Super Clean
In "Super Clean" technological breakthroughs in clean coal, clean oil, clean oil sands, carbon sequestration, and biofuels that do not compete with agriculture and food production result in a high-growth global economy that continues to be fueled by fossil fuels for at least 200 years. Switching to a hydrogen economy is not necessary and none of the hydrogen generation and storage technologies are required. Battery and ultracapacitor energy storage technologies are sufficient and part of the clean fossil fuel economy, transferring and storing energy efficiently from power-generating units to transportation and portable devices. Energy is available for environmental clean up, water purification, and infrastructure repair.
Scenario 3: Competitive Conservation
In "Competitive Conservation" lots of small, evolutionary advances in technology enable a sustainable and active economy, based on conservation of energy. Governments around the world compete with each other to make enlightened choices in policy to reduce waste of energy (such as by regulation, promoting low-energy consumption in lighting, green buildings, agriculture, personal transportation, and IT infrastructure) creating economic activity in the changeover. Imports of energy-guzzling products are banned, forcing reluctant countries to switch also�or lose competitiveness. Solar energy and wind power are marginally efficient and installed everywhere, creating millions of new jobs in installation and services around the world. Population growth levels off to sustainable levels, declining in some countries. People become conscious of their carbon footprint and seek to conserve energy. New businesses form around conservation. Hydrogen storage devices do not achieve the DOE goals, but are sufficient (4 or 5 % by weight) for hydrogen generated by solar and wind power to be stored in large, central facilities for end uses such as fleet vehicles and backup power for telecommunications and computer data centers. Energy storage technologies see marginal improvements and are able to ease the energy demand on all energy-consuming products in small ways that add up to enough to be meaningful. Portable electronic devices, wearables, and implants are partially charged by energy harvesting, ultracapacitors, and improved batteries.
- Potential opportunities. The United States already leads in many or most of these "conservation" technologies and has a business economy that can adjust rapidly. In terms of application, the European Union is quickly moving in this direction, faster than the United States is, but US activities can easily catch up and regain the initiative. Opportunities lie in creating the leading-edge technologies and working with China, India, and Russia to help them install US energy conservation technologies that allow them to sustain growth and to head off potential future geo-political conflict. US industry gains financially from this leadership and US leadership and prestige is maintained worldwide.
- Potential threats. Failure of US policymaking could leave the United States at a severe disadvantage in this scenario. The EU has the policy lead now and is gaining jobs and experience in these conservation technologies, which could carry over into leadership in selling products and services to the rapidly developing countries in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Furthermore, as the United States fails to adapt regulatory and economic policies to encourage conservation, it remains dependent on expensive forms of energy, included imported oil and puts US companies at an economic disadvantage from a cost perspective. More companies will seek to move to low-energy-cost countries, leaving the United States behind. Although this scenario is relatively peaceful, in terms of global conflict, loss of US prestige and economic power will lead to internal and external conflicts and bickering. The United States could become the "Argentina of the 21st Century," declining relatively quickly from its world top spot in per-capital GDP (as Argentina was in 1905) to a "former wealthy nation" status.
Scenario 4: Hydrogen Economy
In "Hydrogen Economy" big breakthroughs occur in cheap hydrogen generation, cheap, lightweight, and dense hydrogen storage, and fast and easy hydrogen dispensing technologies. Solar, wind, clean fossil fuel, biofuel, and even nuclear technologies could be a part of the hydrogen-generation infrastructure. Fuel cell transportation (cars, trains, ships, planes, and niche applications, including lift trucks and robots), infrastructure backup power, and fuel cell-powered portable electronic devices abound globally. Energy is a virtually infinite resource, available to any country, leading to an explosion of devices, solving of global water shortage problems, improvements in health in developing countries, an increase in global travel, and an expansion of space exploration programs.
- Potential opportunities. The United States already is a leader in many of the hydrogen storage technologies and could continue to be the source of technological breakthroughs. Even where it is not the first to gain a breakthrough, US industry and individuals will gain from the new technologies if a rapid build-out of the hydrogen infrastructure takes place, coupled with environmental regulation and incentives that help industry and individuals to adopt new products.
- Potential threats. European countries are ahead in much of the hydrogen infrastructure prototype programs and up to speed in energy storage technologies. Canada and other countries are also pushing hard on fuel cells and alternative hydrogen-generation technologies. They could gain advantage as breakthroughs occur in introducing those technologies into the fast-growth BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries, leaving the United States at an economic disadvantage.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate environments that are supportive toward energy storage materials development, include:
- The natural availability and the price of oil. Gradual declines in availability and increases in prices would increase the decisions to support alternatives; new giant field discoveries might delay policy decisions to support alternatives,
- Improvements in performance and cost of materials relevant to ultracapacitors, batteries and hydrogen storage,
- Energy technology choices in BRIC and the European Union. Look for competition for petroleum, reliance on coal, decision to go nuclear, successful investments to compete in alternatives, especially solar, wind, and biofuels,
- Global sales volumes of portable electronic devices, including cell phones, PDAs, music players, and wearable medical devices,
- Trials, production, and sales volumes of hybrids, fuel cell vehicles and ultracapacitor-powered vehicles,
- Investment and development of nuclear energy and alternative energy technologies, particularly solar, wind, and biofuels, and
- Investment in energy storage materials and commercial successes by type of material.
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