The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 13 of 28 Thirteen Recession wild card scenarios

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 13 of 28 Thirteen Recession wild card scenarios

 

Most people acknowledge that we are heading into uncharted waters in this recession / depression. Expect unexpected events seems to be the rule of thumb. So how is business supposed to function and plan for the near-term future? One way to reduce uncertainty is the use scenario planning and test “wild card’ assumptions. Here’s one that we offer to clients in the Opportunity Clinic:

 

Recession Wild Card #3 -Second global run on American banks ... What would your business do, if we saw a second global run on American banks?

 

Now just wait a minute? At this point, you are likely asking yourself….”I didn’t hear about the first run on US banks…when did this happen?

I bet 99.999% of North American didn’t hear about this either, unless you are a member of the UScongress or a political news junkie and watching the American  C-Span cable channel all day long. (hat tip to several Smart Economy blog readers from around the globe, who alerted us to this meltdown event, that’s been kept secret from most of the world…) see C-Span video entitled: Rep. Kanjorski: $550 Billion Disappeared in "Electronic Run On the Banks" below.

At 2 minutes, 20 seconds into this C-Span video clip, Rep.  Paul Kanjorski from Pennsylvania explains how the Federal Reserve told members of  Congress about a "tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the United States, to the tune of $550 billion dollars, back in September 2008." According to Kanjorski, this electronic transfer occurred over the period of just  two hours, before it was halted.

Here is a transcript of what Kanjorski actually confessed  in the video:

”Look…I was there when the secretary and the chairman of the Federal Reserve came those days and talked with members of Congress about what’s going on. .  It was about Sept 15 here are the facts and we don’t even talk about these things…. On Thursday  [Sept 15, 2008] at about  11 o’clock in  the morning,  the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw down of money market accounts in the USA, to the tune of $550 Billion dollars… was being drawn out, in a matter of an hour or two. The treasury opened up its window to help . It pumped $105 billion dollars into the system. …and quickly realized  that they could not stem the tide….we were having an electronic run on the banks…they decided to close the operation....close down the money accounts, and announced a guarantee of $250,000 per account, so there wouldn’t be further panic out there and that’s what actually happened. If they had not done that, their  estimation was that by 2 o’clock that afternoon,  $5 and a half  trillion dollars would been drawn out the money market system of the United States, would have collapsed the entire economy of the United States and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. Now, we talked at that time about what would have happened if that happened….. it would have been the end of our economic system and our political system”..

After some deep digging on the net and through various databases, we only found two sources that mention  this "secret financial meltdown, See full C-Span video clip here 

and Kanjorski: We came so close to complete financial collapse

 

Paul Kanjorski, who  serves on the US House Financial Services Committee and chairs its Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises, does not provide further details.

 

Not a hint officially from the US government or the Treasury about this e-run on banks..The only sign that something was wrong, in hindsight we see in the following press release, the day after the bank run:

 

September 16, 2008 HP-1142

Remarks by Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David H. McCormick at Future  of Consumer Payments Conference

Washington

– Good afternoon. Thank you for that kind introduction, Martin. And thanks to you, to Bob and to Ken Chenault for the invitation to be here today. I am pleased to join with you for this conference on "the quiet revolution in money," the implications for our citizens, our economy, and financial system of the dramatic change in consumer payments. I'd like to begin by passing along the regrets of Secretary Paulson who is focused today on market developments and has asked me to speak on his behalf.

 

 

Remember-this was right after the Leahman Brothers and AIG affairs. Who got spooked? who panicked? and who was taking their  money out? The Russians? The Asians? The Gulf Petro-Sates? The Sovereign Wealth Funds? All four? Who had a total of $5 and a half trillion dollars invested in US money market accounts? We may never know for sure.

 

 

Are you shocked yet?  Did you hear about this in the mainstream American or Canadian press? Well, I didn’t either. Just goes to show you that openness and the truth were the  first casualties of this recession / depression.

Thirteen Recession wild card Scenarios

“Chance favors the prepared mind said L Pasteur.  

 

So, in the Opportunity Clinic we’ve conceived and  offer 13  “Recession wild card scenarios” that every business person, entrepreneur and entrepreneur want-to-be  should devote some thinking time to,  explore the consequences of  and consider alternative courses of action in advance of the event hitting you.

 

If  “Recession wild card scenario #6” were to happened:

• what early warning signals could I look out for?
• what circumstances could trigger each wild card scenario?
• how do I mitigate its negative impacts?
• how do I identify, cease and leverage the opportunities?
• do I have a “game plan” drawn out in advance, should each of these wild card scenarios come to pass?

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

 

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 13 of 28 Recession wild card scenarios

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 11 of 28 Pretending and Deception as an Opportunity Space

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 10 of 28 "First Impressions” trap

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 9 of 28 The dichotomous thinking trap

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 8 of 28 Industry Architecture Opportunities

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for managing your business in a recession Part 7 of 28  Geopolitical Opportunities;

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28