Smart Economy

Foresight Course: Beyond ‘Business as Usual’ ; Manchester, 29 June - 3 July 2009

Foresight: Beyond ‘Business as Usual’ 
A Course for Sponsors and Practitioners of Foresight 

Foresight Course 2009
Manchester, 29 June - 3 July 2009

The current financial turmoil is not a surprise: would the application of foresight have helped to minimise its effects? Can foresight provide navigation through these turbulent times into a new era beyond 'business as usual'?  The Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR - formerly PREST)'s Eleventh Annual foresight training course will provide a concentrated and intensive, practically-orientated learning experience to prepare participants for the use of foresight to anticipate change to a new era. Participants will learn how to recognise and interpret possible future changes
involving social, technological, economic, ecological, political and human values and their interdependencies.

The course is aimed at people whose present or likely future position as:

• a sponsor of foresight projects;
• a foresight practitioner;
• an entrepreneur;
• a senior manager or company director; will enable them to affect the future of business, government or Non-Governmental
Organisations.

The course has a strong emphasis on the practical use of foresight. There will be parallel streams of lectures and practical work that enable participants to experience the relevance and the realities of foresight activity. The course is residential and is held in Manchester. We can extend its reach to participants in other parts of the world by video-streaming the course  sessions over the Internet and by providing electronic teaching resources.  The course draws upon MIoIR's extensive experience
of organising, consulting, researching and teaching/training in foresight activities across Europe, Latin America, Africa and the Far East. Direct assistance has been given to more than a dozen countries' national Foresight exercises. In research and training MIoIR has a continuing close co-operation with the EC and UNIDO.  

Facilitating foresight activities in public and private organisations is also a continuing feature of the Institutes work. The Institute's unique position in foresight activity has resulted in wide international participation in the course by people from: Canada, the Caribbean, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Latin America, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Malta, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the Russian Federation, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, Turkey, the UK and many other countries.

For Further Information please contact
Lisa Gledhill (Course Administrator)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
MBS Harold Hankins
The University of Manchester
Email: [email protected]

Or vist our website at http://www.mbs.ac.uk/research/engineeringpolicy/courses/foresight.aspx

Please note:- Deadline for applications is Monday 26th June 2009

We look forward to hearing from you. Please feel free to forward this flyer to colleagues who may have an interested in this course.

Kind regards,
Foresight Course Organisers
If you would prefer not to receive future e-mails regarding our Foresight Course, please send a short email to
[email protected] and we will remove your name from our mailing list. Thank you.

Mrs Lisa Gledhill
PA to Professor Luke Georghiou
Research Support Officer - MIoIR
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
MBS Harold Hankins Building
Manchester Business School
The University of Manchester
Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL

Tel: +44 161 275 5921
Fax: +44 161 275 0923
e-mail: [email protected]

Opportunity Clinic Workshop at OCAD, Toronto, Friday June 19, 2009

Recession-proofing your business, NGO, not-for-profit  for difficult economic times.

Learn how to not just survive, but thrive in a recession.

Sponsored by the Canadian Innovation Center, Waterloo (www.innovationcenter.ca)

 The Opportunity Clinic© workshop by Walter Derzko  is based on the book-Hard Times Golden Opportunities 45 Great Business Scenarios to Show You How to Profit from Opportunities that Arise in Challenging Times. The workshop profiles the forty-five Opportunity Windows specific to the recession that are presented in detail in the book. These generic  Opportunity Windows, which can be used and applied by any business, not-for-profit, NGO or government are the product of the Opportunity Clinic© which enables entrepreneurs and managers to 1) navigate the uncertainties in economic downturns; 2) use the Clinic’s framework to scan for, design and evaluate emerging new opportunity spaces; and 3) thrive and not just survive in a recession.

The January19th 2009 issue of Business Week states: “History has shown that crisis breeds opportunity… in times of turmoil, opportunities abound. But taking advantage of them will require [a new mindset], fast reflexes, an aggressive attitude, and serious changes [challenges] to the status quo … bold moves in bad times can pay off big.”

Difficult economic times present challenges, risks and threats for most business owners, and especially science and technology-based enterprises that might have disruptive or unproven technology. Decisions that made sense as little as six months ago may turn disastrous in this climate. Chaos, change and uncertainty may lead to turmoil, but at the same time they present opportunity windows or scenarios for entrepreneurs who are opportunity-sensitive and opportunity-savvy to act on the change.

Date: Friday June 19, 2009; 8:45am to 3:30pm

Location: Ontario College of Art and Design, (OCAD), 100 McCaul  St, Toronto

Cost: $149 plus GST

Online registration:  <http://www.innovationcenter.ca/events/opportunity-clinic-workshop>

Printable form: <http://innovationcenter.ca/files/upload/Opportunity_Clinic_workshop_registration.pdf>

For information: call 416-819-9667

High population density triggers cultural explosions & innovations; Environment not Brains; Nature vs Nurture

Last year, I toured the Royal Ontario Museum exhibit in Toronto– Mysteries of Ancient Ukraine: The Remarkable Trypilian Culture (5400-2700 BC). What was even  more remarkable and mysterious  then the brilliant Trypilian cultural artifacts themselves, was the notion  of uniqueness--why this cultural innovation only existed in a tiny, small geographic area, on what is modern day Ukraine and not the rest of the globe-long before Egypt or Mexico or  Mesapotania?

 

No one seemed to have addressing this question in the exhibit nor is it covered in our modern day high school textbooks.

 

The Union Soviet (..read Russians)  had little to no motivation to promote these archeological discoveries to the rest of the world, which are as exciting as Egypt and which date back over 100 years to the late 1800's,  because of a cultural & political bias and propaganda perspective. Ukraine was considered by Russia's propaganda machine, as a "younger brother" to "mother Russia", and not the older, wiser culture. Seven centuries ago Russia was nothing more then barren,uninhabited swamp land. This is why the West is  only hearing about the Trypilian culture now, after the brakeup /collapse  of the Soviet Union.

 

Trypilion culture even pre-dates Egypt, the pyramids and the Inca's.

 

So I have to ask myself--Were Trypilians smarter then anyone else on the planet  those 7 centuries ago?  Was Tryplia the Silicon Valley of its time? I don't think so. I don't see any cognitive evidence to this affect.

 

Coincidently though , Trypillian culture also designed and built  the first large scale  cities in neolithic Europe, ranging in size up to 20,000 inhabitants. But, just as mysteriously 4.5 centuries ago, they disappeared from the face of the earth without a trace.

 

Researchers from University College London now seem to offer a partial explanation to address my curiosity.....high population density triggers cultural explosions & as well as reversals. So was Ukraine at the cross-roads of many neolithic cultures coming out of Africa and criss-crossing between Asia and Europe? The neolythic silks roads?

 

Increasing population density, rather than boosts in human brain power, appears to have catalyzed the emergence of modern human behaviour, according to a new study by UCL (University College London) scientists published in the journal Science. High population density leads to greater exchange of ideas and skills and prevents the loss of new innovations. It is this skill maintenance, combined with a greater probability of useful innovations, that led to modern human behaviour appearing at different times in different parts of the world. 

 

In the study, the UCL team found that complex skills learnt across generations can only be maintained when there is a critical level of interaction between people. Using computer simulations of social learning, they showed that high and low-skilled groups could coexist over long periods of time and that the degree of skill they maintained depended on local population density or the degree of migration between them. Using genetic estimates of population size in the past, the team went on to show that density was similar in sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and the Middle-East when modern behaviour first appeared in each of these regions. The paper also points to evidence that population density would have dropped for climatic reasons at the time when modern human behaviour temporarily disappeared in sub-Saharan Africa.

Adam Powell, AHRC Centre for the Evolution of Cultural Diversity, says: "Our paper proposes a new model for why modern human behaviour started at different times in different regions of the world, why it disappeared in some places before coming back, and why in all cases it occurred more than 100,000 years after modern humans first appeared.

"By modern human behaviour, we mean a radical jump in technological and cultural complexity, which makes our species unique. This includes symbolic behavior, such as abstract and realistic art, and body decoration using threaded shell beads, ochre or tattoo kits; musical instruments; bone, antler and ivory artefacts; stone blades; and more sophisticated hunting and trapping technology, like bows, boomerangs and nets.

Professor Stephen Shennan, UCL Institute of Archaeology, says: "Modern humans have been around for at least 160,000 to 200,000 years but there is no archaeological evidence of any technology beyond basic stone tools until around 90,000 years ago. In Europe and western Asia this advanced technology and behaviour explodes around 45,000 years ago when humans arrive there, but doesn't appear in eastern and southern Asia and Australia until much later, despite a human presence. In sub-Saharan Africa the situation is more complex. Many of the features of modern human behaviour – including the first abstract art – are found some 90,000 years ago but then seem to disappear around 65,000 years ago, before re-emerging some 40,000 years ago.

Dr Mark Thomas, UCL Genetics, Evolution and Environment, says: "When we think of how we came to be the sophisticated creatures we are, we often imagine some sudden critical change, a bit like when the black monolith appears in the film 2001: A Space Odyssey. In reality, there is no evidence of a big change in our biological makeup when we started behaving in an intelligent way. Our model can explain this even if our mental capacities are the same today as they were when we first originated as a species some 200,000 years ago.

"Ironically, our finding that successful innovation depends less on how smart you are than how connected you are seems as relevant today as it was 90,000 years ago."

Full story here>>[...]

.....So was it climate change that killed off the Trypilians or did they integrate into another neolithic culture in Europe?

Walter Derzko,

Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Warrior gene or monoamine oxidase A (MAOA), linked to gang membership, weapon use

Teen boys who carry a particular variation of the gene Monoamine oxidase A (MAOA), sometimes called the "warrior gene," known as a 'low-activity 3-repeat allele, are more likely not only to join gangs but also to be among the most violent members and to use weapons, according to a new study from The Florida State University that is the first to confirm an MAOA link specifically to gangs and guns. Findings apply only to males. Girls with the same variant of the MAOA gene seem resistant to its potentially violent effects on gang membership and weapon use.

 

"Previous research has linked low-activity MAOA variants to a wide range of antisocial, even violent, behavior, but our study confirms that these variants can predict gang membership,"said researchers. "Moreover, we found that variants of this gene could distinguish gang members who were markedly more likely to behave violently and use weapons from members who were less likely to do either."

The MAOA gene affects levels of neurotransmitters such as dopamine and serotonin that are related to mood and behavior, and those variants that are related to violence are hereditary. Some previous studies have found the "warrior gene" to be more prevalent in cultures that are typified by warfare and aggression.

 

It would be interesting to see if certain cultures (the mafia) or nations such as Russia or Mongolia (think back to the mongol hords or invading russian principalities), who have historically been more aggressive then their neighbors,  have a predominence of this gene.

 

Full study here>>[...]

 

Walter Derzko

Soap-sniffing technology encourages hand washing to reduce hospital-acquired infections & save money

Using sensors capable of detecting drugs in breath, new technology developed at University of Florida

monitors health-care workers' hand hygiene by detecting sanitizer or soap fumes given off from their hands. By reminding workers to clean their hands to remove disease-causing organisms such as the bacteria MRSA, the system could help reduce hospital-acquired infections.

Source:  Annual Meeting, US Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology  June 3, 2009

Smart Pill measures pH levels in digestive tract

NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Study Uses SmartPill Capsule in Ulcerative Colitis Patients, Finding Acidic Conditions in Their Colons

An electronic diagnostic tool called the SmartPill is swallowed by patients in order to take measurements as it travels through the gastrointestinal tract. A new study by physician-scientists at NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center used the device in patients with mild to moderate ulcerative colitis (UC), determining that they have significantly more acidic pH in their colons, compared with the average person — a finding that may impact treatment strategy.

The study was presented today at the Digestive Disease Week (DDW) meeting in Chicago, Ill.

Full story here >> [...]

Walter Derzko, 

Smart Economy, Toronto