Smart Economy

Lecture: Sensor networks in the big city: How sensing parking can control congestion, fund cities, and lower blood pressure

Title: Sensor networks in the big city: How sensing parking can control congestion, fund cities, and lower blood pressure

Date: Thursday August 6, 2009 4-5pm

Speaker:Dr James Reich, VP Engineering, Streetline, Inc.

Location:George E. Pake Auditorium, PARC, 3333 Coyote Hill Rd, Palo Alto, California, USA

This presentation is FREE and open to the public. There is free parking, and the venue is handicapped accessible. No registration is required. Seating is on a first come first served basis.

Description: Cities are complex webs of human activity and infrastructure, but they don't run themselves - information is the key, and it's traditionally been lacking. By embedding ultra-low power networked sensors into the environment, it's possible to understand what'sgoing on out there.

Parking is a great example of an little-managed resource that has an outsized effect on people's lives, the economy, and the environment,and it was the first of several applications that Streetline focuses on. I'll explain how we can use parking as a mechanism for congestion management, help cities manage some of their most valuable real estate and how parking sensors can help find you a parking space.

In the process of doing this, we've deployed some of the largest and longest-lived sensor networks to date - we've had nearly 2000 sensors covering more than a square mile of Los Angeles, and we expect to deploy at least 10,000 more this year to multiple cities. Our devices last 5-10 years on a pair of AA batteries, and need to stand up to all kinds of abuse. And sensing a 3000-pound hunk of metal turns out to be harder than expected: the biggest sensing challenges are often the result of hard-to-anticipate human behavior.

I'll talk about some of the technical and practical challenges of this work, and give my perspective on how research "common knowledge" has held up in the real world.

Presenter: Jim has been involved in Sensor Networks since the inception of the field, first as a researcher, now as VP of Engineering for Streetline, developing and deploying some of the world's largest sensor networks into some of the world's largest cities. Streetline is a 30-person San Francisco-based company which builds and operates large sensor networks for monitoring urban infrastructure, starting with parking. In 10 years as a researcher and Area Manager at PARC, he worked on sensor networks ranging from low-powered collaborative environment sensors; acoustic and video sensors for human and vehicle tracking and in sensor network middleware; ad-hoc vehicle sensor networks; and an airjet paper mover. Prior to PARC, he worked on sensing and control of space launch vehicles,spacecraft, and antiballistic missiles. Jim holds a B.S. in Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering (Space Avionics) from MIT and an M.S. in Electrical and Computer Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University. He holds 6 patents (with 22 pending) and is the author of numerous technical publications.

For more information see:

 

http://www.parc.com/event/935/sensor-networks-in-the-big-city.html

About PARC:

A center for commercial innovation, PARC works closely with our clients to discover, test, and deliver new business opportunities, turning ideas into impact. Enterprises and entrepreneurs alike can gain new insights into customer needs, extend technical capabilities,and acquire valuable new technology assets. Celebrated for innovations such as laser printing, the Ethernet, the graphical user interface, ubiquitous computing, blue lasers, MEMS, and large-area electronics, PARC has invented and contributed technologies that have helped launch more than 30 companies. PARC was founded in 1970, and incorporated in 2002 as a subsidiary of Xerox Corporation.

Walter Derzko

Goal setting fine on paper & in text books, but not always in the real world; Expert serial entrepreneurs and MBA's think differently

The notion of goal setting has been the core philosophy of countless MBA programs, thousands of self-help book and pop psycology articles and magazines and the benchmark tactic promoted by legions of career counselors, business coaches and scores of consultants of all stripes.

Sounds rational and logical on paper and in MBA text book? Right? But does it work in all cases in real life? No...according to a new Swiss and US study that compared how successful expert serial entrepreneurs and novice MBA students think and approach problem-solving.

"Traditional goal setting methodologygy may be fine in a stable world where your assumptions hold true consistently over time but it may not work as well in an ever changing turbulent world, with new emerging world views and ever-shifting mental models and business models of how things work."--Walter Derzko 

The study asked 27 expert serial successful entrepreneurs and 37 novice MBA students to think “out loud” & continuously as they were given decision-making problems in creating a fictional  new venture. Transcripts were analyzed and results showed that experts framed problems in dramatically different ways –in fact, diametrically opposed to the MBA students who followed the textbook. Experts framed problems more using “effectual”  logic, while MBA students largely used “predictive” logic.  

Effectual logic ignores long term goals as the starting point for the time being and proceeds outward from means and causes to new effects and unanticipated ends. MBA students, as per their conventional goal-setting  training proceeded in the opposite direction, using predictive logic, starting with predetermined effects or goals and strived for means and causal paths that would direct them toward these pre-selected goals.

 A simple example: compare  a chef who cooks from a recipe in a cook book (causal, predictive logic) vs a chef who imagines possible meal variations from the ingredients available at hand (effectual logic)

Using effective logic, serial expert entrepreneurs identified more potential markets, focused more on building the venture as a whole, payed less attention to predictive information, worried more about making do with resources on hand to invest only what they could afford to lose, and emphasized stitching together networks of partnerships. Novice MBA students using “predictive frame” missed most of the above issues when tending  to “go by the textbook.”

 

This study argues that we need to challenge and rethink the standard business MBA curriculum- how and what we teach MBA students about entrepreneurship and urges researchers to better understand how and why seasoned serial entrepreneurs develop effectual framing logic through their years of experience.

 

 

The table below summarizes the differences between effectual logic and predictive logic

 

Causal Predictive Logic	Effectual Logic
View of the future Predictive. Causal logic frames the future as a continuation of the past. Hence accurate prediction is both necessary and useful.	View of the future Creative. Effectual logic frames the future as shaped (at least partially) by willful agents. Prediction is  therefore neither easy nor useful.
Basis for taking action Goal-oriented. In the causal frame, goals, even when constrained by limited means, determine sub-goals. Goals determine actions, including which individuals to bring on board.	Basis for taking action Means-oriented. In the effectual frame, goals emerge by imagining courses of action based on given means. Similarly, who comes on board determines what can be and needs to be done. And not vice versa.
Predisposition toward risk and resources Expected return. Causal Logic frames the new venture creation problem as one of pursuing the (risk-adjusted) maximum opportunity and raising required resources to do so. The focus here is on the upside potential.	Predisposition toward risk and resources Affordable loss. Effectual logic frames the problem as one of pursuing adequately satisfactory opportunities without investing more resources than stakeholders can afford to lose. The focus here is on limiting downside potential.
Attitude toward outsiders Competitive analysis. Causal frames promulgate a competitive attitude toward outsiders. Relationships are driven by competitive analyses and the desire to limit dilution of ownership as far as possible	Attitude toward outsiders Partnerships.  Effectual frames advocate stitching together partnerships to create new markets. Relationships, particularly equity partnerships drive the shape and trajectory of the new venture.
Attitudes toward unexpected  contingencies Avoiding. Accurate predictions, careful planning and unwavering focus on targets form hallmarks of causal frames. Contingencies,  therefore, are seen as obstacles to be avoided.	Attitudes toward unexpected contingencies Leveraging. Eschewing predictions, imaginative re-thinking of possibilities and continual transformations of targets characterize effectual frames. Contingencies, \therefore, are seen as opportunities for novelty creation — and hence to be leveraged.

 

 

Source: The Opportunity Clinic and Effectual versus predictive logics in entrepreneurial decision-making. Differences between experts and novices. Dew, Read, Sarasvathy and Witbank. Journal of Business Venturing, 24 (4)  (July 2009) 287-309

 

 

Walter Derzko

UK GDP could drop by 7.5% in worst case "swine flu outbreak" scenario this fall

The Wall Street Journal reports today:

Study: U.K.Economy May Fall 7.5% In Worst Case Flu Spread

The U.K.economy could contract by as much as 7.5% this year if the spread of swine flu turns out to be a worst case scenario, according to a study Monday.

Ernst & Young  already predicts the economy will shrink 4.5% this year and expand just 0.5% in 2010 -- forecasts that are significantly more severe than those of the government.  [...]     The report said that if H1N1 swine flu infection rates reach 50% of the U.K.population and the mortality rate rises to 0.4% of those affected, U.K. economic output could shrink by an extra 3 percentage points in 2009 and by 1.7 percentage points in 2010.That would mean output contracting 7.5% in 2009 and 1.2% in 2010.

 

"The main effect of such an epidemic on the supply side would be from employees staying off work because they or their dependents were ill," the report said.

"On the demand side, spending on discretionary goods and services such as restaurants, travel and tourism would be likely to fall as people stayed away from public places."

Last week, the Department of Health outlined a "reasonable worst case scenario" where 30% of the population contract the disease and the mortality rate is as high as 0.35% of those who contract it.

That could mean more than 60,000 people dying from swine flu in the first wave of the disease.

 

Walter Derzko

Networked car horns warn against natural disasters

In the past, sirens howled to warn the population against floods, large fires or chemical accidents. Today, however, there is no extensive warning system in Germany, as most sirens were dismantled after the Cold War...[..]…However, after the end of the Cold War, most sirens were dismantled in the mid-nineties to be replaced by the satellite-based warning system SatWaS, which informs the population only via radio and television. But if power is lost and if TV and radio are switched off, the warning goes unheard.

In recent years, different individual solutions for warning systems have been developed. Cell-broadcast systems can send mass SMS messages to mobile phones. Smoke detectors, radio-controlled clocks and weather stations equipped with radio receivers can also trigger alarm. Despite the high distribution rate of some of these devices, it cannot be ensured that a warning reaches the entire population. Only individual persons or households would be warned, and only if the devices are on standby 24/7/365.

Researchers of the Fraunhofer Institute for Technological Trend Analysis INT in Euskirchen want the population to be warned by car horns in the future.

In January 2009, researchers of the INT applied for a patent for a technology which allows the horns of parked cars to be activated in case of disaster. The technology is based on the eCall emergency system, which new cars are going to be equipped with as from September 2010

 

See full story from the Fraunhofer Institute

Walter Derzko

 

When will the recession end? Part 28 which countries will lead the recovery?

Now that green shoots are wilting and stock markerts are retrenching all over the world, people are asking ---when the recovery starts, who will be the leading countries, coming out of the pack?

One thing for sure--it won't be countries will high debt-to-GDP ratios, excessive bailouts  and exhuberant spending such as the US or the UK or Japan. After the G8 Summit, Canadian Prime Minister Stephan Harper admitted:

"Recovery may be somewhat slower...a gradual recovery as opposed to a rapid recovery." This was followed by..."we have to be prepared to accept the fact that predictions may change again."...that's code for more risks, financial and asset deleveraging and uncertainty to come.

Here's my First-track & Fast Track Recovery List

Canada in North America (Not the  USA)

Norway+, Switzerland+, Denmark+, Sweden+, Finland, Austria, Netherlands, Poland*, Ukraine* in Europe (Germany later in the business cycle)

Singapore, Hong Kong in Asia  (followed by China &  India later in the cycle due to possible water and food shortages and threats of famine)

UPDATE July 21, 2009: 160,000 people suffer water shortage as drought hits NE China   & Drought in India

New Zealand

*FDI due to Euro 2012

+Little or no debt going into recession

N.B. If the world gets hit with a second round of bird flu or swine fu this fall, all bets are off.

 

Disruptions /Wild Cards that could derail the recovery

 

 

Waste-water irrigation (2005-onwards):

Corruption and drought conditions around the world are forcing urban farmers in some developing countries to water crops with sewage waste water or industrial waste water. This practise is condoned or tolerated. Waste water is even auctioned off by local government officials. -- Sewage waters a tenth of the world’s irrigated crops; Source: New Scientist Aug 2004; http://technology.newscientist.com/article/dn6297

 

 

Water catastrophe (2009-2015)

Over-Irrigation and unregulated wells in India are creating potential for water catastrophe; At the annual Stockholm Water Symposium in Sweden in 2004,  researchers suggests that the pumps, which transformed Indian farming, bring 200 cubic kilometres of water to the surface each year. But only a fraction of that is replaced by the monsoon rains.  Source:--  Asian farmers sucking the continent dry; New Scientist Aug 28, 2004; http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6321

Walter Derzko

Entrepreneurial & Opportunity Brain Drain in USA and Europe**

People create opportunities. So any abrupt changes in migration and immigration flows and patterns matter a great deal. Many studies have shown that highly educated immigrants have a higher likelihood of starting new business ventures then the general population at large, so immigrant influx into Canada and the USA are critical in maintaining a global competitive edge. Immigrant entrepreneurs where largely responsible for many of the startups in Silicon Valley.

So it’s disturbing to see a study that reports  that immigrants with advance education are increasingly likely to return home after taking advanced degrees in the US, leaving the country that trained them facing potential skills shortages and increased competition. This bodes well for emerging markets but not for western developed economies. “A combination of changing perceptions about where opportunity lies, rising nationalist sentiment in the face of a global recession, and poorly thought-out immigration policies, is said to have caused the shift in sentiment and behavior” observe researchers. Among the other reasons given for leaving the U.S.were better economic opportunities at home, a desire to be with friends and family, and concerns about job prospects and the availability of visas

Data also supports that the same is happening with foreign students studying in Europe. Researchers see a fair amount of returnees from Europe, attracted back to China and India due to the opportunities in their home countries. If countries do not provide an innovation-friendly overall environment, where highly skilled workers can use, create and disseminate knowledge, then attracting more workers might not lead to better innovation and economic growth outcomes anyway.

In October 2008, the above researchers [1] polled 1,224 foreign nationals from Facebook, who were either studying in U.S. institutions of higher learning, or recent graduates. They found that only 25% of Indian students, 9% of European students and  7% of Chinese students, thought the best days for the American economy lay ahead. More significantly,  74% of Chinese students and 86% of Indian students felt the best days for their home country's economies lay ahead.

Other disturbing results for America showed that only 6% of Indian, 10% of Chinese and 15% of Europeans intended to settle permanently in the United States. The number of graduates who wanted to stay in the U.S.for a few years also fell, with only 58% of Indian, 54% of Chinese and 40% of European students wanting to stay on. Earlier National Science Foundation research showed that 92% of Chinese students and 85% for Indian students stayed for five years or more. [2]

The students polled were also more of an entrepreneurial group; 64% of Indian, 66% of European and 68% of Chinese students said they wanted to start a business in the next decade, with most of the Indian and Chinese students hoping to do so in their home countries.

[1} Losing the World's Best and Brightest: America's New Immigrant Entrepreneurs, Part V, a study sponsored by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation

[2] West 'Hemorrhaging' Its Best Brains, Study Claims Luke Collins. Research Technology Management. Arlington: Jul/Aug 2009. Vol. 52, Iss. 4; pg. 2, 4 pgs

 

**An excerpt From the soon-to-be-released book -Hard Times, Golden Opportunites by Walter Derzko;  publisher-J Wiley and Sons

2009-2010; the year of the Plague(s) (take your pick from several options)

While SARS, Avian flu and Swine Flu have been getting the major share of front page headlines in the last few years, there could be other candidates for the Plague(s) of the Year.

Does anyone else find it odd, that the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and the mainstream US media are not reporting on a case of bubonic plague that was discovered today in a school and park in New Mexico, USA (http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1014031.shtml?cat=516 ) or is the world too overtaken with a final tribute to Michael Jackson? Local news reports that: The Santa Fe Sheriff’s Office is warning people to avoid a Santa Fe park and an elementary school after rodents found in both locations tested positive for bubonic plague.  According to department spokeswoman Carla Lopez, a dead rock squirrel and a dead prairie dog found on the Nava Elementary School campus tested positive for plague while four prairie digs trapped and removed from Franklin Miles Park tested positive for plague.  All six animals have died."

UPDATE: Another case of "plague" was reported on July 8th in San Diego, but the news story only calls it the plague without referring to bubonic plague. The story notes that the "plague is commonly detected in the county's mountains in the summer, officials said."

China is battling an outbreak of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) which strikes young people similar to Swine Flu but  has no cure or vaccine.

The Irish potato blight (Phytophthora infestans)  from the 1840’s is making a comeback threatening commercial and home garden plots with  potato and tomato crops in Pennsylvania  "Tough economic times have many families taking up vegetable gardening, and tomato is often the most important crop in gardens," scientists said. "Late blight is a common disease in Pennsylvania and the Northeast since it likes the cool temperatures and frequent rains of our summers. If it gets entrenched in a backyard vegetable patch, it can create a serious problem for neighbors and for commercial growers because the disease spores are easily carried in wind currents to infect susceptible plants in even the most remote areas in our region." See Serious disease threatens home gardens, commercial fields: 

Bee colonies are in trouble too...hence all crops that require pollination. "One of the biggest threats to their survival is disease. The worst culprit is the varroa mite, a tiny insect which lives off the bodily liquids of bees in the hive and was first found on these shores back in 1992." ...."The varroa mite has spread to most areas of the world where honey bees are kept and it is present on all continents except Australia," said a spokesman for the UK Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)...." Experts have been predicting that without some kind of intervention, bees could be an endangered species by the end of the next decade. If that happened the consequences could be catastrophic – losing their pollinating skills would pose a very real threat to our ability to grow food." see story here

Potentially the most threatening is  Ug-99 –a wheat blight, first isolated in Uganda in 1999, hence the name Ug-99. It’s threatening vulnerable monoculture wheat crops that have no natural resistance and has the potential to cause famines around the globe, especially in developing countries and prolong the recession in wheat growing “bread basket” countries: China, USA, Argentina, Canada, Russia, Ukraine, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran and others. “In six of the past nine years world grain production has fallen short of consumption, forcing a steady drawdown in stocks. When the 2008 harvest began, world carryover stocks of grain (the amount in the bin when the new harvest begins) were at 62 days of consumption, a near record low.” says Lester Brown in a recent Scientific American article**. “As water tables have fallen and irrigation wells have gone dry, China's wheat crop, the world's largest, has declined by 8 percent since it peaked at 123 million tons in 1997. In that same period China's rice production dropped 4 percent. The world's most populous nation may soon be importing massive quantities of grain.” ..which could be threatened by Ug-99. On top of that, a cold (freezing) and  dry June has decimated wheat crops in Canada's praries and in Ukraine.

 

**COULD FOOD SHORTAGES BRING DOWN CIVILIZATION? Lester R Brown. Scientific American. New York: May 2009. Vol. 300, Iss. 5; pg. 50

Eerily similar to several of the 10 biblical plagues that God cast on Egypt in the Bible (from wikipedia)

1. (Exodus 7:14–25) rivers and other water sources turned to blood killing all fish and other water life.

2. (Exodus 8:1–8:15) amphibians (commonly believed to be frogs)

3. (Exodus 8:16–19) lice or gnats

4. (Exodus 8:20–30) beasts or flies

5. (Exodus 9:1–7) disease on livestock

6. (Exodus 9:8–12) unhealable boils

7. (Exodus 9:13–35) hail mixed with fire

8. (Exodus 10:1–20) locust

9. (Exodus 10:21–29) darknes

10. (Exodus 11:1–12:36) death of the first-born of all Egyptian families.

 

 Walter Derzko