Predictions for 2010--more negative but opportunites exist as well.

The Canadian Prime Minister recently said in a TV interview that he was far more optimistic about 2010 then he was in last year or in 2008.

Consumer optimism in the US and Canada has risen slightly as well....But, while Christmas time has always been a season of optimism......however, the formal and informal indicators that I see for 2010 ...especially in the USA are generally not good.

• The US House of Representatives has passed a new bailout bill for 2010 for an incredible amount- $4 Trillion dollars-twice the bailout budget of 2009. (Bankers Get $4 Trillion Gift From Barney Frank ) ..it means that US Congress is expecting increasingly worse economic news in 2010. 
• Last week, I've catalogued over 60 debt and asset bubbles around the globe that have yet to burst. WATCH OUT & PREPARE!!
• Karl Case, the father of the Case Shiller Housing Index was quoted recently saying: “I’m worried. everyone’s worried,” said Karl E. Case, the Wellesley College economist who helped design the housing index that provided fresh cause for alarm on Tuesday. “If prices sink 15% from here, and the 2008 and 2009 loans go bad, then we’re back where we were before — in a nightmare.” Mr. Case, who chided himself for his optimism over the summer, said he now believed “the probability is very high of a serious double dip like 1982.” Source: Case-Shiller Now Predicts Serious Double-Dip Recession

• Significant Chance Economy Will Contract In 2010  Nobel-laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz warns that there’s a “significant” chance the U.S. economy will recede in the second half of 2010. “The likelihood of this slowdown is very, very high. There is a significant chance that the number will be in the negative range. If you don’t prepare now, and the economy turns out to be as weak as I think it’s likely to be, then you’ll be in a very difficult position.”

• USA by the numbers in 2009

  

Unemployment Rate: +10%

Number of Metropolitan Areas where unemployment is higher than a year ago: 372

Number of Metropolitan Areas tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: 372

Total consumer bankruptcy filings through November 2009: 1,300,000

Total consumer bankruptcy filings in 2009: 1,095,344

Homes currently in foreclosure: more than 1,000,000

Home Home Equity Loans and lines of credit extended through third quarter, 2009: $40 billion

Home Home Equity Loans and lines of credit extended in 2006: $430 billion

Profits earned by Wall Street firms collectively through third quarter 2009: $49.7 billion

Amount lost by Wall Street firms collectively in 2008: $42.6 billion

Total corporate profits, third quarter 2009: $132.4 billion

Financial services profits, third quarter 2009: $82.8 billion

Goldman Sachs earnings, 2008: $2.8 billion

Goldman Sachs taxes paid, 2008: $14 million

Wall Street Bonuses 2009(1): $149 billion

Wall Street Bonuses 2008: $140 billion

Total Lobbying spending 2009: $3.33 billion*

Lobbying spending by finance industry to influence regulatory reform: more than $300 million

Finance industry lobbyists per member of Congress: 5

Federal government share of GDP 2009: 26%

Federal government share of GDP 2000: 18.4%

Size of Federal Reserve balance sheet: $2.2 trillion

 

*Expected. The record, set in 2008, was $3.30 billion. 

 

(source: http://www.minyanville.com/articles/2009...Kevin Depew's statistics for 2009 and Harper's Index

I'm leaning toward a USA w-shaped, double or triple dip economy instead of V-shaped  or L-shaped recovery for 2010 and 2011.

 

Canada may be in trouble too since too many Canadian export businesses over-rely on the USA as a single destination and have not diversified geographically and are expecting a return to a "business-as-usual' scenario in 2010 and 2011.

 

Could the USA become the next undeveloping nation -after the collapse of the Soviet Union and previously the British empire, the collonial empire, the Roman empire or the Bizantium empire ala Gerard Celente ( Gerard Celente> Predictions 2010  )

 

I may seem overly   negative--but, not at all. Change and turbulance provide once-in-a-lifetime opportunity windows for savvy entrepreneurs if they are not subject to change blindness. Email us about an Opportunity Clinic workshop for your business

 

Well for tonight at least --have a happy new year celebration !!

 

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

 

Author of the soon-to-be published book- Opportunity 45 Scenarios to Drive Your Business in Challenging Times, published by J. Wiley and Sons

ISBN13: 978-0-470-73761-3

ISBN10: 0-470-73761-1