Over a month ago I updated one of my posts from 2008 on price bubbles. It's been so popular, that a further revision seems warranted...so here they are.
While the US housing and gold bubbles have gotten the bulk of media attention, here are over 100 asset and debt bubbles from the Decade of Speculation or today's Bubble Economy. It challenges the long held assumption by mainstream economists that you can't have a back to back financial calamity . A financial crisis has to be punctuated by growth and recovery. Maybe not this time.
Walter Derzko
Author of the soon-to-be published book-
ISBN13: 978-0-470-73761-3
ISBN10: 0-470-73761-1
- Gold bubble (+24% in 2009)( Rising Skepticism in Gold; Olive: Don't believe hype over gold ; see all the late-night and daytime TV commercials-trade your Gold for cash !! )
- Lumber price bubble (+24% in 2009)
- Cocoa price bubble (+25% in 2009)
- Silver price bubble (+51% in 2009)
- Palm oil price bubble (+53% in 2009)
- Cotton price bubble (+54% in 2009)
- Copper price bubble (+95% in 2009)
- Rubber price bubble (+102% in 2009)
- Orange juice price bubble (+107 % in 2009)
- Zinc price bubble (+111 % in 2009)
- Raw Sugar price bubble (+127% in 2009)
- Lead price bubble (+145% in 2009)
- Garlic price bubble (+300% in 2009)
- Iron ore price bubble (dropped -33% in price in 2009; but expected jump +30-50% in 2010 forecast)
- Coal price bubble
- Strategic metals and minerals bubble (Lithium etc)
- Baltic Dry Index bubble
- Diamonds & colored diamonds bubble
- The art and antique market bubble
- The Casino spending bubble
- The weekly government lottory spending bubble
- The marathon run for (name your disease) fundraising bubble
- The cure for cancer lottory bubble (but we already have a cure ...didn't you know?)
- The "media is independent myth" bubble
- The "US government doesn't dictate policy to business corporations myth" bubble
- The "equity market is a free market myth" bubble (..not manipulated by government interests and government shadow investments ) Reality-All three leveles of US Government invests $60-$100 trillion of taxpayer money in the marketplace (see http://cafr1.com/ and Comprehensive Annual Financial Report from your city or municipality)
- Carry trade bubble (Roubini: carry trade to last at least 6 more months )
- US corporate earnings bubble
- US banking earnings bubble
- US stock market bubble ( Seven Looming Financial Bubbles; Krugman: 'Reasonably High Chance' the Economy Will Contract )
- Apple and Google stock bubble
- Hedge Fund bubble
- Credit rating bubble (Fannie/Freddie Misrepresented Loan Pool Quality To Get AAA Ratings )
- Bank and Money security bubble or "my money is safe in the bank myth", (bank security compromised with sophisticated theftware or theft engines the existence of which I previously predicted on this Smart Economy blog in August 2006) (Russian Mafia hacks Citibank for tens of millions of dollars)
- Brazil equity bubble (Latin American bull market may be tamed in 2010)
- Emerging markets equity bubble
- Australian Real Estate bubble (Australia's Early Rates Hike, Example for Region Facing Asset Bubbles)
- US Bond market bubble (Could Basel III Lead To A Bond Bubble? )
- Emerging markets Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) bubble
- US Global influence bubble-De Americanization of the globe; America's retreat, demise, pauperization.
- Indian stock market bubble (Indian stock market in bubble territory in 2010)
- second commodities bubble ie copper (Kaufman warns of commodities bubble; MetalMiner on Forbes Bubble List; Germany concerned about looming price bubble for iron ore )
- possible food bubble ( global shortages in 2010)
- Angel and VC investment bubble
- Charity events bubble (The bubble bursts for charity balls)
- Green/clean tech bubble (Is clean tech the next bubble?)
- US ethanol bubble
- Alternative energy tech bubble (see Carlota Perez chart below) (Solar boom or solar bubble?; Wind power industry faces bubbles )
- The wireless bubble
- The smart phone and smart apps bubble (you can't have and use all 10,000 apps on your smart i-phone)
- The search engine bubble
- Oil and gas supply bubble (peak oil)
- US derivatives bubble (The Size of Derivatives Bubble= $190K Per Person on Planet)
- Securitized life insurance or life settlements bubble ( New Exotic Investments Emerging on Wall Street )
- Second financial and banking crisis (The decade: Many bubbles, many busts )
- Sovereign debt bubble ; (Greece and Dubai were just early warning signals-others at risk include Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ukraine, Iceland, the Baltic's, Ecuador, Mexico, Russia, Venezuela, UK, USA, Germany etc ) (What a Sovereign-Debt Crisis Could Mean for You ; Sovereign Debt: The Next Bubble )
- Sovereign Wealth Fund bubble (Dubai, Russia?)
- Russian finance bubble ( Leading Russian banker warns of new finance bubble in Russia )
- The oligarch debt bubble (Russian billionaires turn to millionaires)
- The economy in a recovery-good news bubble (Canada, USA, China )
- Potential first Canadian housing bubble (Are Canadians building debt bubble? ; Rising household debt could derail recovery )
- Second US residential real estate bubble (FBI deluged by fraud cases from real estate bubble; Case-Shiller Now Predicts Serious Double-Dip Recession) ....That would be consistent with historic norms, as suggested by economic historians Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, who make the case that in severe financial crises, real estate takes over five years from its peak (which in the case of the USA was 2Q 2006) to hit the trough.,,or 2Q 2011.
- US rent bubble
- US consumer price bubble-> deflation (The US Government Continues To Blow Hot Air Into A Deflating Housing Bubble)
- US commercial real estate bubble
- US bank loan bubble (BofA's new CEO faces credit card woes, huge loan losses)
- EU bank loan bubble
- US bank merger bubble
- US FDIC Deposit Insurance bubble
- US Government Shadow Investment (CARF) bubble and unneeded taxation bubble (see http://cafr1.com/)
- US "Myth of a free Market" Bubble ( see http://cafr1.com/)
- US Wage bubble (Ford to Begin Hiring at New Lower Wages
- US Minimum Wage Bubble
- US Benefits bubble
- Soaring Government Taxes, fees and penalties bubble.... (see http://cafr1.com/) bursts the.....
- US Gen-x, Gen-Y and Yuppie bubble (slow gradual demise of the middle class, shifts to the muddle class, as in muddle through)
- Credit Default Swap (CDS) bubble (Harvard Swaps Are So Toxic Even Summers Won’t Explain )
- Global commercial real estate bubble
- Military Spending bubble ( Airbus threatens to scrap A400M aircraft ; 01/05/2010 )
- Indian Real Estate bubble (Asset bubble concerns in India )
- Burj Khalifa (formerly the Burj Dubai) skyscraper rent bubble (...tallest building in the world not fully occupied yet; still 1/4 empty on openning day; value in $'s per sq m has dropped in half from the peak)
- The expatriate worker bubble (which has burst for migrant workers in China, Indonesia, Portugal, Spain, USA, Italy, Dubai, Russia, Poland) and the .....
- Wage remittance bubble
- Chinese banking bubble
- Hong Kong economic bubble (Hong Kong could slip into second recession in 2010, leader warns)
- Chinese economic growth miracle bubble...China may have suddenly become a capitalist super power, but we forget that it’s still communist state. Communist regimes have a long history of ignoring and pauperizing the general population, silencing any popular public decent,trading off widespread pollution for industrial growth, industrial espionage, reverse engineering, scientific plagiarism and theft,outright IP theft, internet hacking, cooking the company books, and fudging economic indicators and growth/ GDP numbers. There’s no reason to believe why they would halt that long-standing practice.
- Chinese commodity surplus bubble ( Bubble Talk Among Analysts Scares China Investors )
- Chinese property bubble ( China's inflated property bubble threatens to puncture economy; Housing bubble threatens China's boom; China Bubble To Burst In 2010?; Academics warn that real estate bubble may burst; Chinese Analyst Warns of Real Estate Crash)
- Inexpensive water supply bubble (Mexico, California)
- Fertilizer supply bubble
- Agri-food bubble
- Manufacturing bubble
- second Global trade bubble
- US retail sales bubble
- Corporate Tax bubble
- US municipal budget bubble (2010: The year of bankrupt gov'ts_ ) on paper
- US state budget bubble on paper (California, Florida, Michigan etc 2010: The year of bankrupt gov'ts)
- Private & Public pension fund bubble (US pensions go bust, gold crashes, China flops, Bunds soar, predicts Saxo; Qwest to save about $220 million by cutting retiree death benefits ; Taxpayers may be picking up the tab for pensions (Florida))
- US State bond bubble on paper ...California goes bankrupt as early as January 2010(California Watch: Will California Default on Bond Debt in 2010?)
- US "The State is bankrupt myth" Bubble (ses http://cafr1.com/) and Comprehensive Annual Financial Report
- US "The City is bankrupt myth" Bubble (ses http://cafr1.com/) and Comprehensive Annual Financial Report
- US "The School Board is bankrupt myth" Bubble (ses http://cafr1.com/) and Comprehensive Annual Financial Report
- US healthcare spending hyperinflation bubble
- Social unrest bubble (also see political bubble below.)
- Government Tax and Service bubble and tax revolt bubble (see http://cafr1.com/)
- US Credit Card bubble (BofA's new CEO faces credit card woes, huge loan losses; US credit card charge-offs rise in November)
- US Car loan bubble
- US college education loan bubble
- US college and University debt bubble
- US Mortgage loan bubble ( Four Big Mortgage Backers Swim In Ocean Of Debt )
- US Federal debt bubble
- US Treasury bubble and second run on the Treasury bank..like in Sept 2008
- US dollar & other currency bubbles ( Ratings Agencies Could Move the Greenback )
- US and Canadian low interest rate bubble
- US employment bubble propped up by artificial government stimulus
- US middle class bubble (Midnight in the food-stamp economy (Reuters)
- US Hollywood Distraction TV show bubble (So you think you can dance? American / Canadian Idol)
- Second Global trade bubble (after government stimulus spending halts and China stops buying surplus commodities)
- Possible future Global economic collapse (Bernanke not ruling out 'double-dip' recession - Business ...; A second Great Depression is still possible; Shock May Put Global Relapse Odds as High as 1-in-3, Morgan Stanley. Says
- Carbon credit trading bubble due to 3d and 1st world scandals/scams/ corruption/fraud. ("Carbon Credit Gum: World's Biggest Bubble" & Fraud in Europe's Cap and Trade System a 'Red Flag,' Critics Say )
- Wild card- USA -"we are safe from another 9/11 terrorist attack" myth
- UPDATE:wild card--the Political stability bubble (hat tip to Cy Jamison ..."I would add the coming political bubble - a bursting open of electoral expectations and the vox populi worldwide, accompanied by right-wing revolutions joined by unlikely alliances of leftists, former socialist regimes, environmental protesters, forces of law and (dis)order, and angry ethnic nationalists of every stripe, not to mention ordinary people dispossessed by greed and the apocalyptic fear of inevitable change and new financial/social paradigms...an unholy mess, not unlike Europe at the dawn of Reformation capitalism, the Inquisition, and the age of empire..." ) (Obama orders 1 million US troops to prepare for civil war )
- wild card-- Climate stability bubble--Global cooling or climate variability /extremes due to lack of sun spots-Cycle 24 (www.spaceweather.com) or
- wild card & early warning signal -- Climate stability bubble--1-10 year cooling period due to sulphur dioxide and ash plumes from one or more erupting volcanoes (Yellowstone volcano-low probability but high severity?); Mayon Volcano in Philippines on edge of eruption and Bezymyanny volcano eruption starts on Kamchatka) , like we saw 100 years ago (1810-1819) -where the Indonesian Tambora volcano eruption and other "mystery" volcano, led to a global decade long mini ice age and 1816-the year without a summer.
- wild card-Massive electromagnetic pulse (emp) or Coronal Mass ejections (CME) from the sun disrupt global or local power grids and fry electronics (www.spaceweather.com; Dec 29, 2009)
- wild card-USA-early or unanticipated (by the public) interest rate hike (
Fed Must Be Open To Rate Hikes To Pop Bubbles-Bernanke in the Wall Street Journal)
Can you think of any other asset or debt bubbles that I've missed? email me & I'll add them to the list
Walter Derzko
Author of the soon-to-be published book-
ISBN13: 978-0-470-73761-3
ISBN10: 0-470-73761-1
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