Smart Economy

When will the recession end? Part 54 Two prominent economists weigh in on risk of double dip recession

Two more credible prominent economists (check their track record) have weighed in on the persistent risk of a double dip W-shaped recession.

OECD economist Dr Adrian Blundell-Wignall, warns of a 10 year long de-leveraging process on ABC news:

Double dip recession looms: OECD economist

One of the OECD's leading economists says there is a strong chance that the world's leading economies could quickly slide back into recession. The deputy director of the OECD's financial and enterprise affairs, Dr Adrian Blundell-Wignall, has told ABC1's Inside Business program that the threat of a double dip recession remained because problems in the banking system have not been solved.

"There are many icebergs the ship has to negotiate before we're out of jail here.  This is going to be a 10 year process, not a one year process," he said

Dr Blundell-Wignall says many of the banks' problems have been hidden by changes to accounting rules and their most toxic assets have been shifted to the balance sheets of the big central banks in the US and Europe.

"That's basically taking the bad assets as collateral for loans from the central banks to these banks," he said.

"Well they have to be paid back and the question is if you put back this collateral back to them what would their situation be?  That's why credit isn't supporting this recovery." 

Dr Blundell-Wignall pointed out these were his own view and were not necessarily those of the Paris-based OECD. (full story here http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/28/2832386.htm?section=justin)

And S&P chief economist says:

DOUBLE-DIP RISK PERSISTS: S&P

NEW YORK/ The U.S. would be at risk of a double-dip recession if things go awry in the global financial markets as a result of a major sovereign default, Standard & Poor's chief economist, David Wyss, said on Friday.

Risk aversion has risen in global markets in recent weeks on concerns that sovereign debt problems centered on Greece may threaten the pace of economic recovery.

Weak U.S.housing data and a persistently fragile labour market have also reawakened concerns that a recovery in the U.S. economy may prove anemic.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Business+Browser/2619981/story.html

To be honest, sovereign debt default, isn't such a big risk if it only happens to one or two countries in a decade. The IMF and World Bank have enough absorptive capacity to rescue a nation or two. If fact that's happened regularly over the past 400 years. But what is unprecedented this time around is that over 20 countries (with high CDS scores) are at risk of bankruptcy. (N.B. countries typically default on national debt first and then international debts) What if all the dominoes tumble down all at once? Who will come to the rescue then? A question that no one seems to want to ask or debate in public.

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

When will the recession end ? Part 53 Chinese insider sees revolution brewing

Things may not be so peaceful in the economic miracle of China, comrade. This according to a Chinese insider who is quoted in Australian media today.

The defunct Soviet Union (FSU)  fell apart because of corruption and inefficiency. The Chinese (communist) growth miracle may be in for a similar faith--Walter Derzko

 

Everybody said: No one saw it coming referring to the sudden collapse of the SU, even though all the weak signals of internal rot were there.. With China it’s much more obvious. An economic collapse of China would have unimaginably serious global consequences.

 

China insider sees revolution brewing

"China's top expert on social unrest has warned that hardline security policies are taking the country to the brink of ''revolutionary turmoil''.

In contrast with the powerful, assertive and united China that is being projected to the outside world, Yu Jianrong said his prediction of looming internal disaster reflected on-the-ground surveys and also the views of Chinese government ministers.

Deepening social fractures were caused by the Communist Party's obsession with preserving its monopoly on power through ''state violence'' and ''ideology'', rather than justice, Professor Yu said.

Disaster could be averted only if ''interest groups'' - which he did not identify - were capable of making a rational compromise to subordinate themselves to the constitution, he said.

Some lawyers, economists and religious and civil society leaders have expressed similar views but it is unusual for someone with Professor Yu's official standing to make such direct and detailed criticisms of core Communist Party policies.

Professor Yu is known as an outspoken insider. As the director of social issues research at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Rural Affairs he advises top leaders and conducts surveys on social unrest.

…[…]…

This speech is very significant because it is the first time Yu has directly confronted the Hu-Wen leadership [President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao] and said their policies have failed and will not work.''

Pointedly, Professor Yu took aim at the policy substance behind two of Mr Hu's trademark phrases, ''bu zheteng'' [''stability'', or ''don't rock the boat''] and ''harmonious society''.

His speech was delivered on December 26, the day after the rights activist Liu Xiaobo was sentenced to 11 years in jail for helping to draft a manifesto for constitutional and democratic government in China, called Charter '08.

…[…]…

Professor Yu's speech has not been previously reported but has recently emerged on Chinese websites.

He cited statistics showing the number of recorded incidents of ''mass unrest'' grew from 8709 in 1993 to more than 90,000 in each of the past three years.

''More and more evidence shows that the situation is getting more and more tense, more and more serious,'' Professor Yu said.

Taking a page from Russia and the the government tactics duing the infamous 1930's' famine (Holodomor) in the Soviet Union especially Ukraine:

"He cited a growing range and severity of urban worker disputes and said Mafia groups were increasingly involved in state-sponsored thuggery while disgruntled peasants were directing blame at provincial and even central government.

…[…]…

''Corrupt officials have such a high and urgent interest in controlling the media and especially the internet,'' he said. ''The more they feel that their days are numbered due to the internet and free information, the more ferocious and corrupt they become, in a really vicious circle leading to final collapse.''

Full story here: 

http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-insider-sees-revolution-brewing-20100226-p92d.html

 

Walter Derzko

The next commodity shortage? your morning cup of coffee affected by global warming?

While other shortages make the headlines every day, your morning cup of coffee is something that most people still take for granted...well maybe not for long. What if something as basic as coffee shortages trigger society to take climate change more seriously and notch political will and actions up to the next level--Walter Derzko

(a morning without your Tim Horton's coffee (popular in Canada) could result in serious withdrawl symptoms and a workplace productivity drop !! )

Coffee hit by global warming say growers

AFP February 26, 2010

Coffee producers say they are getting hammered by global warming, with higher temperatures forcing growers to move to prized higher ground, putting the cash crop at risk. 

"There is already evidence of important changes" said Nestor Osorio, head of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), which represents 77 countries that export or import the beans.

"In the last 25 years the temperature has risen half a degree in coffee producing countries, five times more than in the 25 years before," he said.

Sipped by hundreds of millions of people worldwide, coffee is one of the globe's most important commodities, and a major mainstay of exports for countries from Brazil to Indonesia.

But producers meeting in Guatemala this week are in a state of panic over the impact of warming on their livelihoods.

While boutique roasters often seek out highland-grown cherries for their subtle tastes, the cooler terroir comes at a premium.

And the new race to the top comes amid already increasing demands for resources between farmers and energy firms.

"Land and water are being fought over by food and energy producers," said Osorio, "we need to make an assessment to guarantee the sustainability of and demand for coffee production."

ICO figures show that production in Latin America dipped last year, largely due to poor weather, and producers say they are struggling to stay afloat.

In Colombia, one of the world's largest producers, production slumped 30-35 percent while Costa Rica and El Salvador still struggled to recover from poor harvests in 2000-2005.

The National Coffee Association of Guatemala -- a regional leader -- said production in nine Latin American countries was expected to fall 28 percent in the first three months of this season.

Walter Derzko

When will the recession end? Part 52 The big government tax deficit hoax

Open letter to all investigative journalists and citizen activists

Recently blogs, newspaper, radio and TV shows have featured scores of politicians complaining of revenue (tax) deficits, as the sole justification to raise municipal property taxes and user fees in 2010.

 

(charts from Chris Martensen blog)   

It’s one big lie and deception, bigger then Bernie Madoff.  The government isn’t running out of money-in fact it’s the reverse.

Next time you talk a politician or have the time to do some serious investigative journalism, look at the government’s rainy day accounts called CAFR.

All municipalities and all government entities (municipalities, utilities, school boards etc) keep two sets of books.  The normal public financial statements (taxes in and government expenses out) and a rainy day fund which is documented in a Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR) or Annual Financial Report ((AFR).

When my and your tax dollars go into government it’s not immediately spent but sits appropriated in an investment account.  And that’s been happening by legislation in North America for 70 years, (see GFOA ), so the gross amounts are in the trillions of dollars.

Toronto’s Financial Statement for 2008 has about $9 billion (give or take) in expenditures (money out) and taxes (money in).

But it starts on page 70.  Why?  What’s on the first 69 pages ?  The CAFR items I bet.

The Financial Statement has a one line item of a several hundred million dollar from investments, but there is no note to say where these investment dollars came from.  I’m assuming that to earn several hundred million dollars as an institutional investor with one of the top 5 US investment banks, you have to have several hundred billion dollars earning 20-30 % or more, which the top 5 investment banks in the US earned mostly on derivatives in 2009 in the depth of the greatest recession since the 1930’s.

The need for tax increases in a hoax orchestrated by all politicians, if we have rainy day CAFR accounts amounting to hundreds of billion of dollars.  I’m not saying give me a tax rebate, which would be nice but unlikely, but at least dip into the CAFR account (which some US municipalities have done) and don’t raise my property taxes for 2010.  If 2009-2010 wasn’t a rainy day or rainy year then I don’t know what is.

Even better, invest my tax dollars into a separate institutional investment account so that it can earn 20-30% too like your money-then take your share for property taxes.

Please do some investigative journalism and blow these secret rainy day CAFR accounts into the open.  All tax-paying citizens will be outraged when they find out

I went to University of Toronto Rotman Business Library looking for CAFR statements for the University of Toronto, the city of Toronto and the provincial government of Ontario.  The librarian had never heard of CAFR documents, which tells me that business students and financial profs don’t talk about this either.  I did find the City of Toronto’s Financial statement but as I said CAFR was missing.

See my blog posting on CAFR at http://bit.ly/actxnE

US Reference: www.cafr1.com

Walter Derzko

Smart Arthritis Simulation Gloves Aid Design of Easy-to-Use Products

Design and product development students are told to walk in a customers' shoes. But sometime that may not be enough, when designing new products for seniors.

US researchers have designed arthritis simulation gloves that reproduce the reduction in functional capacity experienced by persons with arthritis. The gloves help those responsible for consumer products understand how arthritis affects a person’s ability to grasp, pinch, turn, lift and twist objects

From the Georgia Tech press release

As the U.S. population ages, manufacturers of consumer goods are realizing that many customers may not be as nimble-fingered or sharp-sighted as they once were. To help product designers and engineers address those changing requirements, researchers at the Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) have been developing evaluation methods and design techniques to identify and address the needs of all consumers, including those with functional limitations.

GTRI’s latest product is a pair of arthritis simulation gloves, which reproduce the reduction in functional capacity experienced by persons with arthritis. The gloves help those responsible for consumer products better understand how arthritis affects a person’s ability to grasp, pinch, turn, lift and twist objects.

“A product manager or designer can put these gloves on and attempt to open their company’s products or packaging,” explained GTRI principal research scientist Brad Fain. “If they are unable to open a product or package, then chances are high that people with moderate to severe symptoms of arthritis will also have difficulty opening it.”

The gloves can be used with a variety of consumer products, including medicine bottles, beverage containers, office supplies, medical devices, vehicles, cell phones and many other consumer products. They can also be used with many different types of packaging, including clamshell packages, cardboard boxes, cereal containers and foil packages.

Three companies, including Kraft Foods, are currently using the gloves in-house.

“Maxwell House always keeps our consumers’ needs in mind when designing packaging,” said Linda Roman, senior group leader for packaging strategic research at Kraft Foods. “For example, we used the gloves created by the Georgia Tech Research Institute to verify that the lid on our new instant coffee jar is accessible for those who have difficulty opening jars with regular caps. The gloves helped us evaluate the EZ Grip lid to be sure that our lid is, in fact, easy for our consumers to use.”

The gloves were designed to reduce a wearer’s functional ability to grasp something and either pull or rotate it by 33-50 percent. They also stiffen an individual’s finger joints and restrict the range of motion of his or her fingers. To create the finger stiffness and reduced finger strength experienced by individuals with arthritis, the gloves were designed with metal wires between layers of neoprene and other fabrics.

In addition to identifying ease of use issues with products, the gloves are also intended to raise awareness about issues faced by people with disabilities and to support programs focused on ease of use in design. Currently, the Arthritis Foundation in the United States and Arthritis Australia are using the gloves for such educational purposes.

The gloves can be purchased alone, or as part of GTRI’s disability awareness kit, which also includes a low-vision simulation kit, a finger strength simulation kit and a CD training program. The finger strength simulation kit consists of finger exercises that are calibrated to certain amounts of force recommended for packaging and the training program teaches individuals how to use the gloves.

The low-vision simulation kit contains a pair of glasses that simulate common visual disabilities, including various degrees of cataracts, visual acuity problems, contrast sensitivity issues and age-related macular degeneration.

“A product manager can put the glasses on and observe products to see if he or she can read important things written in small print, like instructions or an expiration date,” added Fain.

In the future, many baby boomers will likely demand the same access to products that they currently have -- even as their functional abilities decline.

“These older individuals will attribute any inability to open or use a product with deficiencies in the product itself,” added Fain. “That message or perception can be detrimental to companies because they want to avoid being associated with a product that’s difficult to use. The arthritis simulation gloves and the rest of the items in the disability awareness kit can help companies avoid these design mistakes.”

The gloves were created through funding by GTRI’s independent research and development program. To purchase the arthritis simulation gloves or the disability awareness kit, please visit: http://www.gtri.gatech.edu/facilities/aef

Walter Derzko

 

When will the recession end ? Part 51 What if our economic indicators and metrics, such as GDP are wrong and deceptive?

That's an interesting question to ask. A recession is a good time to go back and challenge and rethink some of our cherished traditional institutions and assumptions, like the GDP.

There is beneficial economic activity and detrimental economic activity, but it's all counted neutrally and lumped together into GDP. Take China, for example,  which has spent $586 Billion (US) as part of its government stimulus package, much of which has gone into speculative real estate investments. The newly built city of Ordos, located in China's coal-rich province of Inner Mongolia, has spanking new shiny apartment buildings,gleaming office towers, modern schools and stores, fresh roads and highways, but sits practically empty of residence, because middle class Chinese can't afford to buy the properties from speculators, who now own them.  Eventually speculators will need to pay back the loans and property taxes.So is all of this leading to a white elephant city?

Should all of that speculative acivity  be counted as a drain or a benefit to the economy and the GDP? Even the mayor of Ordos, Yun Guangzhong is critical saying: "GDP alone cannot represent the people's aspirations or the raising of their income. Fixed asset investment does not mean industrialization and urbanization has improved." That's quite a public statement of condemnation, coming from a mayor in a communist country.

(source: The Globe and Mail, pg B1, Feb 23, 2010)

[The same goes for CPI the consumer price index-Have you noticed that while the prices of goods in the basket have stayed the same, the packages weights have mostly dropped. We are all paying the same price for less and less in this recession--That's how companies have saved their bottom lines. Walter Derzko]

One US researcher is also critical of GDP measures and offers more proof.

Traditional gauges of economic activity (such as GDP) severely overstate the standard of living as experienced on Main Street, say University of Maryland researchers, who have worked with their state officials to apply a more accurate and greener index.

Maryland recently became the fourth U.S. state to adopt the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) as a supplement to the traditional state-level economic index, the Gross State Product (GSP).

"This is not merely a question of dueling statistics - the difference in the two figures can be startling and represents very different pictures of our standard of living," says Matthias Ruth, director of the University of Maryland's Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER), which calculated the GPI for the state.

"In 2000, the classic economic measure showed Marylandmore than 50 percent wealthier than we actually were, as measured by the GPI." Ruth explains.

"The traditional measure is inflated by costs that are counted as if they were benefits, such as the conversion of agricultural lands and coastal areas to strip malls and developments," Ruth adds. "It failed to capture many aspects of life we value - from environmental quality to livable communities."

To account for the costs and benefits excluded by the GPS, the GPI formula measures 26 economic, social and environmental factors.

"This tool allows us to account for the environmental and social costs of problems like air pollution, crime and income inequality, as well as the values of benefits like clean water, education and volunteerism," says Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley.

Armed with the more comprehensive GPI data, officials will have a more meaningful guide to policy, Ruth concludes.  He adds that this data might have made a difference had it been available back in 2000.

"We might have moved more rapidly towards sustainable practices - may have invested more in communities that hold together, rather than roads that spread us apart, invested more in local jobs rather than an economy that moves them to far-flung places on this globe, may have invested more in energy technology that harnesses local, renewable resources like wind and solar, instead of burning more nonrenewable fossil fuels," Ruth says.

GPI FINDINGS AND FORECASTS

Into the 1970s, the difference between the GPI and the Gross State Product was relatively small.  But by 2000, the GSP was more than 50 percent greater than the GPI, Ruth found.  "A goal now should be to identify and reverse those drivers that made the two diverge," he concludes.

Ruth also developed a unique dynamic modeling tool that enables policymakers and the public to forecast how environmental, social and economic policies and investments will affect prosperity in 2060.

The CIER modeling shows that by 2060, maximizing efforts to create green jobs, clean energy savings and smart growth could each double the GPI.  While several nations and three U.S. states (Vermont, Minnesota and Ohio) have calculated their GPI, no other jurisdiction has developed a publicly accessible modeling tool.

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be published book- Opportunity 45 Scenarios to Drive Your Business in Challenging Times,  published by J. Wiley and Sons

ISBN13: 978-0-470-73761-3

ISBN10: 0-470-73761-1

Contact usabout the Opportunity Clinic workshop and to invite Walter Derzko as a keynote speaker at your next event 

Bloom Box fuel cells push a distributed energy scenario (energy independence) replacing the power grid

After an interview on CBS 60 minutes TV program this past Sunday (see http://search.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6224124n ), the internet and the alternate energy world is abuzz about Bloom Energy, a Silicon Valley start-up, who is planning to unveil a prototype residential fuel cell tomorrow -Wednesday that the company hopes will be available in the next five to 10 years for about $3,000. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell, a member of Bloom Energy's board, is  scheduled to be in attendance at the news conference. Thousands of firms around the world are working on fuel cells, from GE to Siemans and mnay we have never heard of. I wonder if Bloom Energy is taking a new tactic?

From Physorg.com:

The Bloom box is a new kind of fuel cell that produces electricity by combining oxygen in the air with any fuel source, such as natural gas, bio-gas, and solar energy, creating energy without burning or combustion. (specific details lacking so far)

Hype notwithstanding, K. R.Sridhar the company founder said the chemical reaction is efficient and clean, creating energy without burning or combustion.  He said that two Bloom boxes - each the size of a grapefruit - could wirelessly power a US home, fully replacing the power grid; one box could power a European home, and two or three Asian homes could share a single box.  Although currently a commercial unit costs $700,000-$800,000 each, Sridhar hopes to manufacture home units that cost less than $3,000 in five to 10 years. 

He said he got the idea after designing a device for NASA that would generate oxygen on Mars, for a mission that was later canceled.  The Bloom box works in the opposite way as the Mars box: instead of generating oxygen, it uses oxygen as one of the inputs.

Although Sunday was the first time Bloom Energy came public with the Bloom box (there's not even a sign on the company's building), several devices are already being used by about 20 well-known companies.  Google, FedEx, Walmart, eBay, Staples, and others have taken advantage of tax credits to purchase the Bloom boxes, and they're seeing cost savings in their energy bills.  For example, four refrigerator-sized units have been powering a Google datacenter for the past 18 months, using about half as much natural gas as would be required to generate the same amount of energy at a traditional power plant.  And at eBay, five units running on bio-gas made from landfill waste that were installed nine months ago have saved the company more than $100,000 in electricity costs, said eBay CEO John Donahoe on "60 Minutes."  Donahoe added that, on a weekly basis, the Bloom boxes generate five times as much power than the 3,000 solar cells that are installed on the roofs of the company's buildings.

Sridhar explained that the fuel cells inside the Bloom boxes are made from sand turned into thin ceramic squares, each side coated with a green or black "ink."  A single cell can power about one light bulb, but a stack of 64 of the cells could be "big enough to power a Starbucks," Sridhar said.  In between each disk there's a metal plate, but the Bloom box supposedly uses a cheap metal alloy instead of expensive platinum (a US patent filed by Bloom in 2006 and granted in 2009 mentions the material "yttria stabilized zirconia" as well as electrodes made of metals in the platinum family).

While few details came out of the 60 minutes interview it sounds like the ceramic layers may be doped with graphene or carbon nanotubes

Walter Derzko Smart Economy Toronto

Magnesium salt complex (magnesium-L-theronate (MgT)) for memory; remember magnesium for remembering

In the past I've blogged about water soluble Buckyballs (C60) or  Hydrated Fullerenes (HYFN's) in a new Fullerene Water Solution (FWS) drink as a potential cure for Alzheimer's disease.

Since this is a complex multiple pathway system, there may be many approaches to preventing dementia or assessing your risk. (i.e a  variant  of an Alzheimer's gene -epsilon 4, a version of the apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) actually makes young people smarter, more educated and gives them better memory early on in life but in old age ups the risk of developing Alzheimer's from four to twenty times--see my post tomorrow) 

So both nature (your genes, shortened telomeres etc) and nuture (essential mineral  intake / deficiencies ie Mg) both play a big role in Alzheimer's.

Here we see a different tactic from a consortium of 4 universities (Tel Aviv University, MIT, the University of Toronto, and Tsighua University in Beijing) that looked at the importance of a trace metal-magnesium for memory. Over the past 50 years we see various studies [1] (see references below) that looked a fruits and vegetables that have shown that the concentration of essential trace mineral elements is way down.  So it's no wonder that  we are seeing more dementia. Farmers do not practice "re-mineralization of soils". Fertilizers and pesticides are not enough. Without essential minerals, farmers are growing "nutritionally-empty fruits and vegetables, that in the long term threaten our health.

From a press release and original story [2]:

Those who live in industrialized countries have easy access to healthy food and nutritional supplements, but magnesium deficiencies are still common.  That's a problem because new research suggests that magnesium, a key nutrient for the functioning of memory, may be even more critical than previously thought for the neurons of children and healthy brain cells in adults.

Begun at MIT, the research started as a part of a post-doctoral project by Dr. Inna Slutsky of TAU's Sackler School of Medicine and evolved to become a multi-center experiment focused on a new magnesium supplement, magnesium-L-theronate (MgT), that effectively crosses the blood-brain barrier to inhibit calcium flux in brain neurons.

 Magnesium L-threonate  is a magnesium salt of L-threonic acid having the formula Mg(C4H7O5)2

Published recently in the scientific journal Neuron, the new study found that the synthetic magnesium compound works on both young and aging animals to enhance memory or prevent its impairment.  The research was carried out over a five-year period and has significant implications for the use of over-the-counter magnesium supplements.

In the study, two groups of rats ate normal diets containing a healthy amount of magnesium from natural sources.  The first group was given a supplement of MgT, while the control group had only its regular diet.  Behavioral tests showed that cognitive functioning improved in the rats in the first group and also demonstrated an increase of synapses in the brain — connective nerve endings that carry memories in the form of electrical impulses from one part of the brain to the other.

Bad news for today's magnesium supplements-They don't work!!

Dr. Inna Slutsky comments:

"We are really pleased with the positive results of our studies," says Dr. Slutsky.  "But on the negative side, we've also been able to show that today's over-the-counter magnesium supplements don't really work.  They do not get into the brain.

"We've developed a promising new compound which has now taken the first important step towards clinical trials by Prof.  Guosong Liu, Director of the Center for Learning and Memory at Tsinghua University and cofounder of Magceutics company," she says.

While the effects were not immediate, the researchers in the study  were able to assess that the new compound shows improved permeability of the blood-brain barrier.  After two weeks of oral administration of the compound in mice, magnesium levels in the cerebral-spinal fluid increased.

Toward a more "plastic" brain

"It seems counterintuitive to use magnesium for memory improvement because magnesium is a natural blocker of the NMDA receptor, a molecule critical for memory function.  But our compound blocks the receptor only during background neuronal activity.  As a result, it enhances the brain's 'plasticity' and increases the number of brain synapses that can be switched on," says Dr. Slutsky.

"Our results suggest that commercially available magnesium supplements are not effective in boosting magnesium in cerebro-spinal fluid," she says.  "Magnesium is the fourth most abundant mineral in the body, but today half of all people in industrialized countries are living with magnesium deficiencies that may generally impair human health, including cognitive functioning."

Before the new compound becomes commercially available, Dr. Slutsky advises people to get their magnesium the old-fashioned way — by eating lots of green leaves, broccoli, almonds, cashews and fruit.  The effects on memory won't appear overnight, she cautions, but with this persistent change in diet, memory should improve, and the effects of dementia and other cognitive impairment diseases related to aging may be considerably delayed.

E.T.A. 5-10  years for clinical trials

References

[1] A study on the mineral depletion of the foods available to us as a nation over the period 1940 to 1991  by THOMAS David (1) ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) Mineral Resources International (UK) Limited Silverdale, Lower Road, Forest Row, East Sussex, RH18 SHE, ROYAUME-UNI

Abstract

In 1927 a study at King's College, University of London, of the chemical composition of foods was initiated by Dr McCance to assist with diabetic dietary guidance.  The study evolved and was then broadened to determine all the important organic and mineral constituents of foods, it was financed by the Medical Research Council and eventually published in 1940.  Over the next 51 years subsequent editions reflected changing national dietary habits and food laws as well as advances in analytical procedures.  The most recent (5th Edition) published in 1991 has comprehensively analysed 14 different categories of foods and beverages.  In order to provide some insight into any variation in the quality of the foods available to us as a nation between 1940 and 1991 it was possible to compare and contrast the mineral content of 27 varieties of vegetable, 17 varieties of fruit, 10 cuts of meat and some milk and cheese products.  The results demonstrate that there has been a significant loss of minerals and trace elements in these foods over that period of time.  It is suggested that the results of this study cannot be taken in isolation from recent dietary, environmental and disease trends.  These trends are briefly mentioned and suggestions are made as to how the deterioration in the micronutrient quality of our food intake may be arrested and reversed.

Journal Title Nutrition and health (2003), vol.  17, no2, pp.  85-115 [31 page(s) (article)] (13 ref.)

[2] Inna Slutsky, Nashat Abumaria, Long-Jun Wu, Chao Huang, Ling Zhang, Bo Li, Xiang Zhao, Arvind Govindarajan, Ming-Gao Zhao, Min Zhuo, Susumu Tonegawa and Guosong Liu.  Enhancement of Learning and Memory by Elevating Brain Magnesium.  Neuron, Jan. 28, 2010

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Why does an apple a day keep the doctor away? The science of apple pectin and good gut bacteria

Ever wonder about old wives tales and if they are actually based on any scientific proof?

Every school child is taught: "An apple a day keeps the doctor away," but  how many people ask the followup question -why?  New research by scientists in Denmark have explored the science behind the classic truth.

It appears that rats fed a diet of apples (with skins), over at least a 14 wek period,  have a higher amount of beneficial bacteria in their digestive systems. 

As part of the EU Isafruit.org project, microbiologists from the National Food Institute at the Technical University of Denmark fed one group of rats a control diet and another group of rats a diet that was rich in whole apples (with pectin), apple juice, purée, or pomace. 

On feeding them, the scientists observed the microbial content of the rats’ digestive systems.

"Certain bacteria are believed to be beneficial for digestive health and may influence the risk for cancer,” said research leader Dr. Tine Rask Licht of the Technical University of Denmark, in a press release.

"In our study we found that rats eating a diet high in pectin, a component of dietary fiber in apples, had increased amounts of certain bacteria that may improve intestinal health,” said co-researcher Dr. Andrea Wilcks, also from the Technical University of Denmark. 

"It seems that when apples are eaten regularly and over a prolonged period of time, these bacteria help produce short-chain fatty acids that provide ideal pH conditions for ensuring a beneficial balance of microorganisms (and a reduced rate of certain cancers).  They also produce a chemical called butyrate, which is an important fuel for the cells of the intestinal wall.”

The research was published in the journal BMC Microbiology.  Further research is required to determine whether a human’s digestive system would respond to apples the same way a rat's did...more then likely I bet.

To read the research paper, please visit http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1471-2180-10-13.pdf

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be published book- Opportunity 45 Scenarios to Drive Your Business in Challenging Times,  published by J. Wiley and Sons

ISBN13: 978-0-470-73761-3

ISBN10: 0-470-73761-1

Contact us about the Opportunity Clinic workshop and to invite Walter Derzko as a keynote speaker at your next event 

 

Re-emergence of Science and Technology in the Middle East

Western school children don't realize that most of the basic math and science (chemistry and physics) found in science high school textbooks comes from Arabic (Middle East) scientists, discovered even before the dark ages in Europe. Scientists from the Middle East were once world leaders in most scientific inquiry and discovery. Today, the romantic and "almost backward wasteland" image from TV and Hollywood that most people have of a typical "middle east" country is one of sand, and caravans of camel transportation and not advanced science and technology. And this misperception isn't the worst of it.

While, the west is trying to further demonize the "Middle East" in all of the media, because of real and perceived terrorist threats, it's not an image that the Arabic world deserves, when it comes to science. 

At this year's AAAS meetings in San Diego, we see an attempt to launch a S&T re-birth in a session called:  "Re-emergence of Science, Technology and Education as Priorities in the Arab World".

The above graph shows the contribution of Middle East science to the world science community over the past 30 years.

Source: Science Metrix report called 30 Years in Science Secular Movements in Knowledge Creation. Countries with a Growth Index (GI) =1 are at the world average, so Israel (GI=0.94) (bottom of the curve in reddish-brown) and Iraq (GI=0.47) are falling behind the average world pace, while the rest (GI> 1.0) all grew faster then the world average. (ie Turkey with GI =5.47 or Iran with the best GI in the world of 11.07 or eleven times the world average.

On a whole the Middle East scientific output, while uneven across countries,  grew four times faster than the average world level. 

From a AAAS press release:

"Nanotechnology could aid the future of development of the Arab region," says Mohamed H.A. Hassan, executive director of TWAS, the academy of sciences for the developing world, and president of the African Academyof Sciences. Hassan made his remarks at a panel session, "Re-emergence of Science, Technology and Education as Priorities in the Arab World," taking place at the AAAS's annual meeting in San Diego.

"The Arab region, home to some 300 million people, faces a host of daunting development challenges," Hassan notes. "Three of the most fundamental involve ensuring adequate supplies of water, energy and food." Advances in nanotechnology, he says, "could help achieve progress by helping to address each of these challenges."

For example, he notes that nano-filters could enhance the efficiency of desalinization plants, helping to ensure adequate supplies of water in the region. Similarly, nanotechnology could improve the capacity of solar panels. More abundant supplies of water and energy, Hassan adds, "would boost irrigation and help increase agricultural output."

But none of this is likely to take place, he cautions, "without a strong commitment to training the next generation of scientists." The Arab region has some inherent demographic advantages when seeking to address human resource issues related to scientific capacity building. "Sixty percent of the population is less than 25 years old," he says.

"Yet, the region has some glaring weaknesses as well," he says. "Arab countries spend just 0.3% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on science and technology, compared to 1% in a growing number of developing countries and 2% to 3% in many developed countries. Scientists in the region publish less than 1% of the world's peer-reviewed scientific articles.

Hassan points to some encouraging recent signs, however.

"A growing number of countries have invested in high-profile projects designed to quickly build scientific capacity in critical areas of science and technology." He cites, for example, the opening of King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) for post-graduate studies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar's Science and Technology Park (QSTP).

But much more will need to be done, he says. To boost science, he calls on each Arab country "to create at least one world-class university" and "build at least one world-class state-of-the-art science centre."Hassan also believes the national merit-based academies in the region should become more engaged in their societies and stronger advocates for science education and science-based development.

He readily acknowledges that "with so many immediate challenges facing the region, it's difficult for governments to engage in long-term strategies for development." But he says that "unless countries within the Arab region make a sustained effort to build scientific capacity, they will find themselves unable to overcome the 'knowledge-deficit' obstacles that have impeded economic development for far too long."

"Nanotechnology may not be the first thing that comes to mind in discussions dealing with strategies to address the Arab region's most pressing challenges," Hassan concludes. But such investments in science and technology could be a key to the region's future."

Walter Derzko