The OECD today optimistically predicted that Canada's GDP growth for Q1 and for 2010 will be double the rate of all other G7 nations, and the politicians are jumping for joy.
Yet, last month on March 15, the World Bank forecast that this recovery won't last into the second half of 2010 (when the governments shut off the stimulus taps) and that the developed world will take 5-15 years to totally recover from all the losses and wealth destruction of the 2008 global recession.
N.B. It took the world 20 years and one world war to recover from the 1929 Great Depression, ie circa 1945-1950.
The sharp recovery in the global economy is likely to lose momentum, according to the World Bank, which says it will take five to 15 years for the world to recover ground lost during the 2008 recession.
However, its report on Global Economic Prospects, released yesterday, identifies an opportunity for developing countries to make more progress than their developed counterparts, if they strengthen their financial markets. Global growth is forecast at 2.7 percent this year, while that of emerging economies is put at 5.2 percent.
Are you shocked by this World Bank forecast? I bet you never saw the World Bank report because it wasn't covered by one single western business newspaper or media outlet except for a newspaper in Cape Town, South Africa.
So as a business person, who do you believe and trust?
Just shows that economics is not an exact science, but a hit and miss unpredictable profession or an easily manipulated special interest propaganda tool.
Walter Derzko
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