Feeding 10 billion a mid-century challenge
By Paul Hanley, Postmedia News February 24, 2011
The world's population will soon hit seven billion, more than double the number when I was born. When my grandchildren reach my current age in the 2060s the population will likely be closer to 10 billion. That's like adding two more Chinas - or what was the entire human population in 1960 - in just 50 years.
As we consider how to make the world work for 10 billion, one of the key questions is, "Where will the food come from?" The answer could have implications for Saskatchewan.
Average cereal grain production is a general statistic, but provides a reasonable picture of relative food productivity in the world. The average cereal yield is 2,790 kilograms/hectare, enough to provide 7.6 kg of grain per day for a year or about 2,500 calories for 9.2 people daily. (There are about 2, 500 food calories in .83 kg of a cereal like wheat.)
Out of 172 countries, 73 produce more than the world average, with some, such as Belgium, tripling it. The other 99 produce below the world average; sometimes, as in the case of Botswana, as little as a tenth.
Botswana is a desert nation and should not be compared to, say, neighbouring South Africa, which with its more favourable conditions has yields averaging 3, 330 kg/ha. South Africa is better compared to its neighbour, Zimbabwe, where average yields are one quarter of South Africa. Zimbabwe once bore the title "the breadbasket of Africa," but production has plummeted due to its disastrous political regime. Mainly because of socio-political factors, a hectare of farmland in South Africa could support about 11 people, compared to just 2.3 for Zimbabwe.
Achieving a more unified society with good governance and freedom for farmers and markets has a profound influence on productivity and the ability to feed larger populations.
Ukraine provides a good example of this. Ukraine has 32 million ha of arable land, the eighth largest agricultural land base in the world, plus some of the best farming conditions. Yet current grain yields average 2,630 kg/ha, below the world average. Compare that to a geographically equivalent area like Germany where yields average 6,660 kg/ha. If Ukraine's farms yielded like Germany's, Ukraine could produce as much as 218 million tonnes of grain annually on its arable land, enough to feed 720 million people.
Russia's potential is even greater due to its vast size with 122 million ha of arable land that produces an average of 1,852 kg of cereal per ha. If Russia could produce the same average yield as Canada (3,031kg/ha), it could produce 364 million tonnes of grain, sufficient to feed 1.2 billion people. If it could produce closer to German levels of production, it could produce 800 million tonnes of grain, enough for 2.8 billion people.
So under a more favourable socio-economic climate, including good governance, Russian and Ukrainian agriculture could theoretically supply food for almost all the population increase expected by 2060.
If all the world's arable area was planted with cereals that yielded the global average of 2.8 tonnes/ha, total world grain production could be 3.9 billion tonnes, enough to provide food for 13 billion people, if eaten directly rather than fed to animals. On top of arable land, there are about 140 million ha in permanent crops and 3.4 billion ha in pastures -plus aquaculture and ocean and inland fisheries -to provide other food sources.
Looking at global statistics, we can see a majority of countries are producing food at well below the world average. Often, low production has nothing to do with the land's productive capacity. It's about social, economic and political realities -even physical constraints like poor soil quality are consequences of social, economic and political realities.
Having sufficient food for 10 billion is doable, but it will depend on adopting best governance and socio-economic practices. Equally important, and perhaps even more difficult, will be ensuring that food-producing systems are environmentally sustainable. More on that in a future column.
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Walter Derzko
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