Draft Who is next after Egypt and Tunisia? Risk of Government Collapse? V3 by W Derzko
The 35 Countries Whose Governments Could Get Crushed By Food Price Inflation
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_riots
Potential for riots & government collapse =Food Crisis x High Youth Unemployment x Authoritarian regime x Energy play (CIA and /or Russian FSB nudge the situation in their favour)
|
# Rank & Name
|
Nomura Food Vulner -ability Index
|
Youth Unempl. |
Authori- tarian regime |
Oil Gas Play? |
Comments |
|
#1 Bangladesh |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
no |
-food riots 2008 |
|
#2 Morocco |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes |
-2008 food riots |
|
#3 Algeria |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes 2.1Mbpd |
-recent food riots + 2008 |
|
#4 Nigeria |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes 2.2Mbpd |
-food riots 2008 -2011 Riots in Jos, Nigeria, more than 30 people dead |
|
#5 Lebanon |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes
|
- Riots following the fall of Saad Hariri's gov’t |
|
#6 Egypt |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes 680Kbpd |
-Mubarak resigned;Feb 2011;Riots in Egypt, at least 300 killed |
|
#7 Sri Lanka |
High |
40-50% |
|
|
|
|
#8 Sudan |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes |
-food riots in 2008 |
|
#9 Hong Kong |
High |
|
|
|
|
|
#10 Azerbaijan |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes |
-food riots in 2008 |
|
#11 Angola |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
no |
|
|
#12 Romania |
High |
|
|
no |
|
|
#13 Philippines |
High |
|
|
no |
|
|
#14 Kenya |
High |
|
|
no |
|
|
#15 Pakistan |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
no |
|
|
#16 Libya |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes 1.8Mbpd |
-massive street protests in Feb 2011 & over 2000 deaths |
|
#17 Dominican Republic |
High |
|
yes |
no |
|
|
#18 Tunisia |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes |
-gov’t overthrown; Jan 2011 -food riots in 2008 -Riots in Tunisia, at least 219 killed |
|
#19 Bulgaria |
High |
40-50% |
|
no |
|
|
#20 Ukraine |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes oil/gas transit |
-recent tax code riots; demos in Feb and Spring 2011 |
|
#21 India |
High |
|
no |
no |
-drought -food riots in 2008 |
|
#22 China |
High |
|
Yes |
yes transit |
-drought -mass riots since before Olympics |
|
#23 Latvia |
High |
|
no |
no |
-debt bailout |
|
#24 Vietnam |
High |
|
yes |
no |
|
|
#25 Venezuela |
High |
|
yes |
yes 2.4Mbpd |
|
|
#26 Portugal |
High |
|
no |
no |
-debt bailout |
|
#27 Saudi Arabia |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes 9.8Mbpd |
|
|
#28 Kazakhstan |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes 1.5Mbpd |
|
|
#29 Uzbekistan |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes |
-food riots 2008 |
|
#30 Russia |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes 10.1Mbpd |
-monthly Strategy 31 riots growing |
|
# 31 Mexico |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes 2.6Mbpd |
-food riots 2008 |
|
#32 Indonesia |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes I.0Mbpd |
-drought, food riot 2008
|
|
#38 Syria |
High |
40-50% |
yes |
yes
|
|
|
#50 Kuwait |
High |
4-50% |
yes |
yes 2.5Mbpd |
|
|
# Yemen # Pakistan # Jordan # Algeria # Kenya # Belorus # Iran |
|
|
|
|
|
UPDATE: Here is Time Magazine's
Walter Derzko
Comments