Smart Economy

WARNING....The 'smart life': How connected cars, clothes and homes could fry your brain

Keith Wagstaff         NBC News  

Jan. 13, 2014 at 4:03 PM ET

MICHAEL NELSON / EPA file

It's all coming together: The Samsung smart watch and smart phone interact with the BMW 3i electric car to both simply and complicate your connected life.

Welcome to the "smart life." Brain cells, beware.

It's an entirely wired existence where your Pebble smart watch is connected to your smartphone, which communicates with Google Glass, which can send commands to your Internet-enabled refrigerator and robotic vacuum — all from the comfort of your iOS-equipped car. Sound like a bit much?

Sure, that vision of the future might seem like an amalgam of over-hyped tech trends. But it's probably coming sooner than most people think.

Take "smart homes," connected houses filled with light bulbs, security systems, appliances and TVs that talk to each other and their owner, either through a smartphone or directly through voice and gesture commands. They aren't a "Jetsons" fantasy; in fact, they could be relatively common in five years, said Dr. Sanjay Sarma, director of digital learning at MIT. 

And while "wearables" — including wearable gadgets like Google Glass, smart watches, fitness trackers and even sensor-equipped socks — aren't the norm right now, Juniper Research predicts that the size of the market will explode from $1.4 billion in 2013 to $19 billion in 2018.

The car of the future will also probably be connected. Google announced partnerships with Audi, GM, Honda and Hyundai to bring Android information and entertainment systems to dashboards starting this year. Apple announced a similar deal with BMW and Mercedes-Benz in June. By 2020, 60 to 70 percent of cars sold in the United States could be equipped with Android, iOS or some other operating system,  said Dr. Egil Juliussen, a principal analyst at research firm IHS.

This is on top of the smartphones that are already out there. Smartphone subscriptions are expected to jump from 1.3 billion last year to 5.9 billion in 2019, according to a study from Ericsson.

It all seems like a techie's dream, but the "smart life" could have unintended consequences. 

"The problem is that your brain didn't evolve to process all of that information at the same time," Earl Miller, professor of neuroscience at MIT, told NBC News. "We evolved in an environment where every new sight or noise was important — it could mean a predator was about to leap out of the bushes and eat you."

Ethan Miller / Getty Images file

An attendee uses an interface on a refrigerator using LG's Smart ThinQ technology at the LG Electronics booth at CES in Las Vegas. 

An email alert on a person’s smart watch isn't life or death. But the human brain can't help but pay attention to it, which could be a problem when five other devices are vying for its attention.

Even when people think they're multitasking, what they are really doing is switching between tasks, not doing them simultaneously. And constant exposure to multiple devices at the same time isn't making people any better at it. 

"The more stuff you have, the less you are able to focus on individual things," Miller said. "There is very limited bandwidth for conscious thought."

That assertion has been backed by several studies, including one from Stanford researchers that found that heavy multitaskers were worse at filtering out distractions and focusing on a single task.

Not to condemn the "smart life" as entirely bad thing. Organizing the household, communicating with friends and family, and accessing information — whether it's maps or obscure facts or whether or not there is any beer in the fridge — will be easier than ever before. 

"Personally, I'm a technophile," said Edward Vogel, a professor of psychology and neuroscience at the University of Oregon. "There are a lot of positives to this technology. Google Glass and other devices have the potential to augment our world and help us quickly make more informed decisions."

The problem, Vogel said, was that tasks that require more contemplation and sustained focus could become more difficult.

That’s particularly bad news at high speeds.

The dangers of texting and operating a vehicle are obvious. In 2008, texting was the most likely cause of a train accident that killed 25 people in Southern California.

But studies and multiple experts have claimed that even hands-free communication distracts drivers from the road. That is because people overestimate their ability to multi-task, Miller said, causing them to believe that that the highway is clear only to crash into another car while giving voice commands to their smart glasses. 

In the end, however, the only solution to technology overload, especially when driving, might be even more technology. 

"People love technology and having this constant connectedness to the rest of the world. We are never going to put that genie back in the bottle," Vogel said. "The only way we are going to be safe when it comes to transportation is once Google perfects the self-driving car."

Keith Wagstaff writes about technology for NBC News. He previously covered technology for TIME's Techland and wrote about politics as a staff writer at TheWeek.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @kwagstaff and reach him by email at: [email protected]

Diabetes and electrification-- Diabetes on Islands and Dirty Electricity (Letter to The Lancet rejected)

Diabetes on Islands and Dirty Electricity (Letter to The Lancet rejected)

http://www.sammilham.com/Islands_Lancet.pdf

 

In the listings of fasting  plasma glucose (FPG)and diabetes prevalence  in 199 countries and territories by Goodarz et al1, islands are over- represented in places with high blood glucose and diabetes prevalence.  Nine of ten of the  places with highest FBG in males are small islands, while none of the ten places with the lowest FPG are. I believe that this is due to exposure to high frequency voltage transients ( dirty electricity) on electric utility wiring coming from generator brush arcing, bad wiring connections  and from cell phone switching power supplies.

Islands without fuel supplies are likely to import  Diesel oil  to fuel generators with arcing brushes.   Dirty electricity DE  is a term coined by the utilities to describe high frequency voltage transients riding along on the 50 and 60 Hz transmission frequencies. DE is generated by arcing, sparking and any device that interrupts current flow, like compact fluorescent lights, computers,  all transmitters, including cell towers, and inverters used in wind mills and photovoltaic solar arrays.

 

These data are also consistent with a dirty electricity etiology in that places without Electricity like sub-Saharan Africa and south east Asia have low FPG and diabetes prevalence. Unfortunately , the epidemic of the so called diseases of civilization, including diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer and suicide began with electrification and Thomas Edison in New York City in the early 1800s.  Historical  US
mortality data and US census electrification data, demonstrate this connection2,3,4.

 

1. Goodarz D,  Finucane MM, Lu Yet al. National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiologic studies with 370 countries and 2.7 million participants. Lancet 2011;378: 31-40.

2. Milham S. Historical evidence that electrification caused the 20th century epidemic of disease of civilization. Medical Hypotheses 74, (2010): 337–345.

3. Milham S. Dirty Electricity, Bloomington Indiana USA, iUniverse. 2010.

4. www.sammilham.com.

 

Samuel Milham MD, MPH

 2318 Gravelly Beach Loop NW

Olympia WA 98502 USA

[email protected]

http://www.sammilham.com/links.shtm

Technology, Control, Happiness and Depression: Is technology controlling you and your life or vise a versa?

(Graphic from New Scientist)  Just sit back and think for a moment: how long has it been since you read your last email? Scanned your last last Twitter?  Dispatched you previous text message? Updated Facebook or Linked In?

With the annual homage to the  Mecca of consumer materialism -the consumer electronics show  (CES) in  Vegas this month ,it may be appropriate to ask the bigger social question

Is technology controlling you and your life or vise a versa?  

Yair Amichai-Hamburger offers  a provocative opinion piece on this month’s issue of New Scientist (Dec 27, 2009 volume 2739) titled “Shiny unhappy People” in the print version or “Free yourself from oppression by technology.” In  the online version

From his Tetrad model, Marshall McLuhan reminds us that technology has four simultaneous impacts on society...and in this case, here's my take on the social impacts and secondary consequences of communication technologies

 

1)Something gets enhanced?  (materialism, consumption, depression, a stecato culture of information, continuous interruption, a middle class that's under the influence of mass cultural and perpetual distraction, fragmentation of reactive efforts, sense of being overwhelmed and not knowing were to turn, public passivity, digital version of divide to conquer etc )

2) something gets obsolesced or lost?  (social relationships, happiness, tenacity & longevity of thought, thoroughness,  propensity for societal action, coordinated social response)

3) something gets brought back or retrieved? (digital-slavery, time enslavement ) and

4) something gets flipped or reversed?  (from ease of communication to communication stress &Info overload or what I call pauperization of communication & information, debasted or watered-down wisdom)

 

Amichai-Hamburger touches on  all 4 of these social impacts- enhancement, retrieval, obsolescence, and reversal.

 

Here’s a recap and summary of his key points

• "Are we being served by these technological wonders or have we become enslaved by them?"
• We living in an"age of melancholy" coined by psychologist Daniel Goleman to describe our era. "People today experience more depression than previous generations, despite the technological wonders that help us every day. It might be because of them."
• "Our lifestyles are increasingly driven by technology. Phones, computers and the internet pervade our days. There is a constant, nagging need to check for texts and email, to update Facebook, MySpace and LinkedIn profiles, to acquire the latest notebook or 3G cellphone. "
• "For many of us it is becoming increasingly difficult to control the impulse to check our inbox yet again or see whether the headlines have changed since we last looked. [...] In many homes, the computer has become the centre of attention; it is the medium through which we work and play."
• "How did this arise, and what is it doing to us? In this era of mass consumption, we are surrounded by advertising that urges us to find fulfillment through the acquisition of material goods. As a result, adults and children increasingly believe that in order to belong and feel good about themselves, they must own the latest model or gadget."
• "Yet research has shown that people who place a high value on material goals are unhappier than those who are less materialistic. Materialism is also associated with lower self-esteem, greater narcissism, greater tendency to compare oneself unfavorably with other people, less empathy and more conflict in relationships."
• "People who place a high value on material goals are unhappier than those who are less materialistic "--N.B. this is supported by other studies that show consumers value "experiential events" over "material goods"--Walter Derzko
• "Our culture also constantly reminds us that time is money. This implies a need for total efficiency, which is why we are allowing laptop computers and mobile phones to blur the separation between work and home. As one unhappy human-resource manager in a high-tech company put it: "They gave me a mobile phone so they can own me 24 hours a day, and a portable computer, so my office is now with me all the time - I cannot break out of this pressure." Sound familiar?"
• "Psychologists generally believe that the lack of a clear separation between work and home significantly damages our relationships with loved ones. It also predisposes us to focus on the here and now at the expense of long-term goals."
• "By imposing these twin pressures, modern society is in danger of swapping standard of living for quality of life. We need ways to help recover those increasingly large parts of our lives that we have ceded to technology, to regain mastery over technology and learn to use it in a healthy and positive way."
• Amichai-Hamburger offers a 4 point  prescription to reagin self-control based on  self-determination theory, developed by psychologists Edward Deci and Richard Ryan of the University of Rochester in New York state. It identifies three vital elements of healthy personal development and functioning that  can be used to recalibrate our relationship with technology. Amichai-Hamburger  thenadds a 4th point below.

1) "The first is autonomy - the feeling that our activities are self-chosen and self-endorsed. When we feel in control, we are able to organize our priorities and place effective boundaries around them. But when we feel we have insufficient control, it leaves us vulnerable to our impulses and causes us to abdicate decisions to other people. It is easy to see how technology undermines autonomy, but also how to regain it. This may be as simple as switching off mobile phones during meals and family time, setting aside specific times to answer emails, and being available only when we choose to be."

2) "We also need a sense of competence, a belief that our actions are effective. In this respect our relationship with technology is complex, because many of us feel competent when we deal with an email, when we have the newest BlackBerry, or because 50 people enjoyed the holiday snaps we posted on Facebook. "

3) "Relatedness:our need to feel close to other people. Technology is a threat to this. Devices like the iPod can be used to create a bubble that disconnects us from normal human interactions, and while some virtual relationships may be truly meaningful, in many cases they come at the expense of real-world connections. Psychologists have found that the pivotal difference between happy and unhappy people is the presence or absence of rich and satisfying social relationships. Spending meaningful time with friends, family and partners is necessary for happiness."

Many North American's have lost this, which is why seemingly poorer nations tend to be happier --Walter Derzko.

4) "Critical thinking. In today's world, where we are potentially available 24/7 to absorb messages from well-honed advertisements, it is vital that we know how to analyze and evaluate their validity - and to neutralize them where necessary."

Autonomy, competence, relatedness and critical thinking are the best ways to establish a balanced approach to technology, and so enhance our well-being.

Intersting question to ponder...will Eastern & Asian cultures (India, China etc) turn to North American ideals of materialism & consumption to find fullfillment in life as they develop economically or to something else?--Walter Derzko

N.B Yair Amichai-Hamburger is director of the Research Center for Internet Psychology at the Sammy Ofer School of Communications, the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel.

Full story here

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

 

Author of the soon-to-be published book- Opportunity 45 Scenarios to Drive Your Business in Challenging Times, published by J. Wiley and Sons

ISBN13: 978-0-470-73761-3

ISBN10: 0-470-73761-1

Smart Sustainability Showcase for Toronto and Canada

From: Walter Derzko

Sent: Friday, July 11, 2008 12:19 AM

To: undisclosed list

Subject: re Smart Sustainability ShowCase for Toronto and Canada.

Importance: High

Dear Colleagues

I’d like to plant an idea with you – after speaking with a number of designers and vendors, I’m exploring the idea for a sustainability showcase that would feature theme based exhibits with smart technologies from Canadian and international sources-the best from Ontario, nationally and from around the world.

The launch would be 2010, The timing for this seems right.  The target audience would be Canadian business, consumers and school children

I’m writing a book on smart technologies and this would be a logical extension of the concept.

Two years ago I talked to Samantha Sannella and Poala Polletto at the Design Exchange (DX) in Toronto and with several people at the Ont Science Center.  Both groups expressed interest but said that we would need to find sponsors for the project

My business model for this would be three pronged -vendor based revenue, corporate based sponsor revenue and municipality based sponsorship ie city of Toronto or Mississauga and possibly the province of Ontario who may wish to promote sustainable manufacturing.

This concept would be a Canadian, in fact a North American first.

I have a list of 150 potential vendors, and designers from around the world who are working on smart technologies that we can start to approach.

The exhibits would be theme based, --the sustainable kitchen, the sustainable office, the sustainable retail shelf, the sustainable workspace, the sustainable community, the sustainable city etc and would be updated with new technologies every 3-5 years and have a 1-5 year forward focus. (what's commercially available now or in the very near future.

For other exhibits, there can be a regional or national focus ie smart sustainable technology from the UK, Finland, Germany (Fraunhofer Inst), China, Ukraine, Russia, or Singapore, Hong Kong etc

Corporate sponsors might include: Walmart, Rona, Home Deport, Canadian Tire, Loblaws, Sears, Imperial Oil, the banks (RBC, TD, RBC BMO) etc.

The Sustainability Showcase could be housed in a physical location, or it could tour from location to location around the city or province or be mobile ( on a bus the way the Japanese and Korean do- a display bus turned into a demo center that tours from school to school or to fairs and exhibitions.

OCAD students and staff and Beal senior fellows could play a hand in designing exhibit spaces and sourcing new vendors and sustainable technologies.

Several other revenue opportunities could spin off from this as well

Here’s just a few examples of what can be showcased

1) Environmentally sensible packaging such as Mercury-Absorbant NanoSponge packaging for broken compact fluorescent lamps (CFL's) http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2008/06/mercury-absorba.html

2) Concrete Wood (from the example I mentioned June 2 at OCAD, when Bob Logan was bemoaning the lack of durability of pressboard shelving from Ikea.  See Concrete Wood from lodgepole pine trees destroyed by pine beetles (kills two birds with one stone) http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2007/11/concrete-wood.html

3) End of Traditional Heating and Air conditioning Thin-film version of Active Building Envelope (ABE) systems could make conventional air conditioning and heating equipment obsolete http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2006/07/thinfilm_versio.html

4) OLEDs New High efficiency flat light source OLEDs > Almost any surface in a home, whether flat or curved, could become a light source: walls, curtains, ceilings, cabinets, shelves or tables.  Http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2006/04/new_high_effici.html

Lots more like these

For anyone who is interested in exploring the idea of a Smart Sustainability Showcase for Toronto, we are having a meeting on Tuesday July 22 at 11 am at the Ontario College of Art & Design (OCAD), Beal Institute for Strategic Creativity, room 600, 6th floor , 100 McCaul St, Toronto just south of the Ont Art Gallery.

Please RSVP, so we know how many people are coming

I have had some positive feedback from several organizations, & I’d like to push the concept forward

I'm sending this nationally and internationally in  case you are aware of any designers, vendors, manufacturers or research centers who have interesting cutting edge smart sustainable technology to showcase.

Contact me by email

----Walter  Derzko; Senior Fellow Beal Institute for Strategic Creativity, OCAD 

© 2005-2008 Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant, Keynote Speaker and Lecturer on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

Smart Waterless Washing Machine by Xeros uses just one cup of water

Virtually waterless washing machine heralds cleaning revolution

Researchers at the University of Leeds have developed a new way of cleaning clothes using less than 2% of the water and energy of a conventional washing machine.  The revolutionary technology will provide alternatives to both domestic washing and dry cleaning, heralding the world's first "virtually waterless"  Washing system.

Xeros, a University of Leeds spin-out, is commercialising the technology with some of the biggest names in the washing and dry-cleaning industries.

see here

Smart luxury mattress only $75K ..more then the down payment on a house 08-060

Italian mattress designer Magniflex has designed a “platinum bed" that will be showcased at the Las Vegas Furniture Market next month, more extravagant than its Gold Mattress, a bed with a 22-karat gold fiber cover.

"Each piece is thermo-regulating, anti-bacterial, odor-proof, and anti-stress, and is customized to fit the comfort levels of the consumer," says Henry Burney, U.S. sales representative for Magniflex.  The bed will retail for approximately $75,000.  Matching platinum pillows sold separately.

What every oligarch will want under the X-mas tree next year.

Smart House For People With Dementia 07-035

A groundbreaking home that uses the latest smart technology to give people with dementia and other serious long-term health conditions greater independence has been showcased for the first time in Bristol in the UK.

The technology, which has been developed by the Bath Institute of Medical Engineering (BIME) in the School for Health at the University of Bath, has been designed to help people readjust to living on their own after a stay in hospital, and aims to reduce the risk of users being readmitted to hospital or going into long term care.

It uses special sensors that can wirelessly 'talk' to devices, such as the cooker (stoves), taps and light switches, in response to the behaviour of the resident. By monitoring movement within the home, the system is able to respond to many different situations without having to contact care staff, often just using simple voice prompts, which could be recorded by family members.

The whole installation is quite unique because it is designed to empower the resident rather than relying on outside help to deal with problems.

What can this smart technology do?

• If the occupant was detected opening the main door at inappropriate times they would be given a prompt to let them know the time and encourage them to go back to bed. If they continued to go out, care staff would be alerted.
• If the occupant got out of bed at night, the bedroom lights would be gently faded up.
• If the occupant got back into bed and left the lights on, the house would wait a couple of minutes and then fade the lights off. The user could turn the lights on and off themselves at any point.
• If the occupant moved around the house when it was dark, appropriate room lights would be turned on to help orientate them and prevent falls.
• If taps were accidentally left on they would be turned off.
• If the cooker (stove or hot plate) was left on the occupant would be prompted to turn it off. This would be done twice but if they didn't respond, or if smoke was detected near the cooker, it would be turned off and care staff alerted.
• Whilst the cooker hot plates were still hot, even if the cooker had been turned off, a small warning sign would be illuminated saying 'Cooker Hot'.
• If the occupant was detected moving around a lot at night, they would be prompted to encourage them to go back to bed. If they continued to behave restlessly care staff would be alerted.
• Care staff would be alerted through the normal warden call system.

..gee..I don't  have dementia (yet) but I could sure use some of these features in my home. Ever think of designing DIY drop-in modules (like lego blocks) for this stuff?

ETA: now demo home....no mention of dsesign or construction costs or maintance costs.

Full story here >> [...]

© 2005-2007

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

"Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are showstoppers..." Walter Derzko

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  - Margaret Mead

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Smart Elevators, Energy Savings and Opportunity Windows 07-017

The next time you are in New York City, drop into the Marriott Marquis hotel in Times Square and take a ride up the elevators in the newly renovated lobby. Before you get on, you'll notice something different. Instead of a single button to summon the elevator, there's a keypad. You key in the number of the floor you want, and the computer directs you to a particular elevator. At that elevator  you'll will find a group of people headed to your floor and those close to it. When your smart elevator arrives it whisks you express to your floor and next adjacent floors, instead of taking the "traditional milk-run elevator" having to stop at every floor along the way. Elevator rides will change based on traffic. Building managers like it because it saves energy too, because of the overall shorter rides and fewer stops and starts.

This new generation of “smart elevators” called Miconic 10 is made by Schindler Elevator Corporation. All new high-rise buildings in Manhattan will soon have them.

The system is based on a simple fact: when an elevator contains a group of people going to many different floors, each person’s ride becomes longer than if traveling alone. By sorting people into groups headed to nearby floors, each person’s journey becomes — on average — 50 percent faster.

This concept or the Opportunity Window here could be called "Customer Clustering". Most people reading this story will stop here-likely thinking -what a neat and simple idea. or ...."Why didn't I think of that?" Seasoned or serial entrepreneurs will take it a step further, thinking....how can I transfer this concept of customer clustering into my business environment?

Banks started doing this a decade ago by creating single line-ups (cues) that would direct customers to the next free available teller. Previous to this I would always invariably end up in the line where the patron in front of me would have a half hour of banking to do. Government agencies quickly followed suite.

Where else could "customer clustering" be applied?

In my humble opinion airlines have always done a terrible job of boarding passengers. Boarding from back to front makes intuitive sense but there is a much more efficient way of doing it, using customer clustering as the opportunity window concept.

What happens now? Invariably the aisle seat passenger gets settled  into his/her seat before the window passenger makes it to their place. They then have to unbuckle, stand up to let the late passenger into the middle or window seat, all the while, road blocking all the incoming traffic in the aisle.

I've always said that it makes much more sense to board all window seat passengers from the back to the front first, followed by middle seat passengers, followed by all remaining aisle seat passengers, back to front.

Intrigued and interested in learning and applying this type of thinking in your business or organization? We have over 200 such examples of such generic opportunity windows in our Opportunity Clinic Workshops. Call or write for details.

© 2005-2007

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  - Margaret Mead

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Network-enabled Smart Objects & Services or the Death of the Traditional Business Model 07-005

Last year I wrote about how EDS is exploring opportuty windows with Network-enabled smart objects and sevices. Jeff Wacker, EDS's inhouse futurist recently asked a thought provoking question at a talk he gave in Toronto in July 2006 ....."Who would benefit by knowing that my package has just passing mile marker number 26 on route 192 ?" (see Smart Technologies need a New Business Model to be Effective)

In a recent newsletter, Harbor Research Inc makes a compelling case for merging product and service development under one techno-umbrella via a new emerging capability called network-enabled Smart Objects

They propose:

"Products and services, (like peanut butter and jam--my analogy,) while complementary, have historically had opposite strategic goals. 

As a result, each function has had to seek out its own distinct strategies.  Intelligent device networking, however, is initiating a blending of the two models.  The salient characteristics of each model are increasingly coming into question as product development and service organizations re-think their roles and functions based on the impact of networking.  Products alone and services alone will rarely provide any appreciable competitive advantage today.  Both are too easily copied.  Success will come to those companies that realize the combined potentials of both by applying them in specific formats that make it nearly impossible for a competitor to invade."....... ( and create brand new-to-the-world, copy-proof  "clustered" business models)

How is this being driven by today's business pressures and  competitive environment?

As I said yesterday, in my post on Open Source Innovation :

1) Because of rising R&D costs and decreased product revenues (due to shorter product life cycles) — companies are finding it increasingly difficult to justify investments in stand-alone, in-house innovation for new products and services.

2) New Business Models (see Crowd-sourced Manufacuring; Buy-what-you-design) are shifting power away from the OEM toward to consumer/designer.

Harbour Research adds the following observations  to the arguement:

3) The U.S. has created the first post-consumer society in which a majority of people have run out of waking hours to consume. Total consumption of all things is dropping towards the 1% growth rate of the population.

4) Instead of a growing demand pulling products through the channel profitably, many product manufacturers are trying to push too much supply through channels, even at losses, thinking perhaps that someday they will make it up on volume.

5) With today's global-glut supply and saturated demand, end-users express their growing power in many ways. Consumers now expect perfect quality goods and services, unconditionally guaranteed forever. All end users want “over choice” in product selection, flexibility in the types and quantity of services available, convenience, user-friendliness in buying, speed in delivery and lower prices.  End customers are steadily getting more of these needs met by more suppliers.

6) Manufacturing technology and methods continue to move towards the make-anything, in-any-quantity-now factory. This will please end-users, but it creates the growing problem of how to market micro-segmented products through traditional commodity channels and mass media.

7) Instead of selling through lots of small, independent agents, distributors and retailers that could be controlled, manufacturers are faced with selling to big chains or cooperative groups that control market share or shelf space and can push the manufacturers around.

8) Progressive manufacturers would like to sell their fragmenting line of goods to more and smaller segments of potential customers which their existing channel intermediaries haven't pursued and may not be geared to serve.

9)  Most product OEMs have enormous services and value added opportunities surrounding them, but the natural effect of their (conventional ) business mode ( and business models) blinds them from objectively seeing these opportunities."

Natural Consequences -( or what I feel is the Death of the Traditional Business Model)

Enter Smart Products and Services........

"By 2010, the Pervasive Internet (the 24/7, everywhere internet (or what I call the xtranet )and Smart Services could drive a total opportunity in the hundreds of billions of dollars for the companies involved in device enablement, device monitoring, and new services driven by device-generated data. The largest opportunity will exist for value-added integrated product and services providers, and thus access to device information will become a de facto part of most service or sales contracts."

Why should an OEM step up to the plate and network-enable its manufactured objects now?

Harbour Research argues:

• "Because in any given market, the first players to do so will own the information feedback loop to the customer, and it will be very hard for competitors to pull customers out of that loop. ( the lock-in factor and opportunity swtiching costs)
• Inside this “information circle,” a whole world of new, attractive, and more profitable services will take shape.
• Because those next-generation services cannot be offered without device information, and because even traditional service relationships will be made vastly more efficient inside the information circle, channel partners can no longer cut an OEM out of the services action.
• In fact, the real-time enterprise turns “disintermediation” completely on its head. When a company decides to make a smart product that sends out its “heartbeat,” the company owns access to that heartbeat, and thus access to the customer. Now, no third party can sell profitable services to the manufacturer’s customer without making some arrangement with the manufacturer for access to the diagnostic or status data coming from the networked product or device."

"With too much supply and not enough demand, product OEMs in virtually all markets are experiencing profit erosion. So, consolidation via acquisition of players at each step in the chain has been the norm for growth and value creation for some time.  Further, the historical approach of most product OEMs has been to aim for the “center” in designing their products and go-to-market architectures, hoping to maximize their access to a somewhat homogeneous set of mainstream customers. However, as suppliers attempt to meet the increasingly diverse and sophisticated requirements of customers, the middle-ground approach to product and market delivery design has been rendered significantly less rewarding—suppliers are finding a broad, central thrust to be less effective in pleasing any group of customers.  Traditional-thinking market participants are, in other words, putting their heads in the sand.

Ultimately, the worst of it all for most product OEMs is the fact that the consolidation cycle was for so many markets a 1990s phenomenon – that is, most product OEM markets have consolidated and most product OEMs are so large that the size of acquisition required to move the “equity value meter” is either too costly or, more often, not available.  Bottom line, we’ve run out of things to acquire.  Today’s executives are realizing, “Heavens….. this means I will really have to innovate and grow organically."

© 2005-2007

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Economy Bog: Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  - Margaret Mead

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Happy 1st Birthday to the Smart Economy Blog; Announcing a new Web site, Monthly workshops and webinars

Today marks the 1st anniversary of the Smart Economy Blog. We've received many encouraging feedback & emails from our readers over the past year and good suggestions from positive-focused critics for future improvements.

• According to Pingpoat, The Smart Economy Blog is worth  is $1011.17!  per day
• Inbound links: 1085
• Technorati rank: 34,021

So today, I'm announcing a series of new "smart" initiatives that we will be kicking off in October 2006.

The Smart Economy is growing exponentially and so are we, right along with it.

Smart Economy Learning Series-monthly workshops in Toronto

Starting in October 2006, we will be launching a monthly series of one-day workshops on topics that our blog readers say interest them. These include:

• Latest Tools for Advanced Environmental Scanning, Managing Information Overload and Sense-making ( October 12, 2006, BCE Place Toronto) email me asking for a registration form
• Lateral thinking in business  (Date TBA)
• Developing foresight in your business or industry  (Date TBA)
• Resolving conflicts and disputes using lateral thinking (Date TBA)
• The Opportunity Clinic --Scanning your business environment for Opportunities(Date TBA)
• The Idea Lab --Designing smart products and services that will drive business development forward (Date TBA)
• Introduction to Business Development --Tracking emerging technologies as threats or opportunities for your business (Date TBA)
• Technology Assessment for Investment Professionals & High Tech Startups (Date TBA)
• Building a Busines Case for Smart Devices, objects and services (Date TBA)
• Designing winning business modles for Smart Technologies (Date TBA)

Register today, since space will be limited. Past workshops have sold out quickly.

The Smart Economy Web Page

We are finally in the last stages of planning and constructing our new web site for the Smart Economy. Watch out for launch date soon.

The Smart Economy Webinar Series.

Also starting in October 2006, we will host a monthly opportunity for our blog readers to phone in and participate in a "live seminar" which will include power-point slides and a Q&A session, all from the comfort of your PC or laptop. It will be on some current topic related to the smart economy and some rising smart technology that will be coming into prominence soon. This will be a subscription based series.... We will try to keep the price reasonable so that everyone can participate. Subscription information & schedule will be out soon. Watch for announcements.

Thanks again for all your ideas and keep the feedback coming in.

© 2005-2006

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight,, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To arrange for an in house presentation on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

.......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to. - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page