Smart Economy

Smart Sustainability Showcase for Toronto and Canada

From: Walter Derzko

Sent: Friday, July 11, 2008 12:19 AM

To: undisclosed list

Subject: re Smart Sustainability ShowCase for Toronto and Canada.

Importance: High

Dear Colleagues

I’d like to plant an idea with you – after speaking with a number of designers and vendors, I’m exploring the idea for a sustainability showcase that would feature theme based exhibits with smart technologies from Canadian and international sources-the best from Ontario, nationally and from around the world.

The launch would be 2010, The timing for this seems right.  The target audience would be Canadian business, consumers and school children

I’m writing a book on smart technologies and this would be a logical extension of the concept.

Two years ago I talked to Samantha Sannella and Poala Polletto at the Design Exchange (DX) in Toronto and with several people at the Ont Science Center.  Both groups expressed interest but said that we would need to find sponsors for the project

My business model for this would be three pronged -vendor based revenue, corporate based sponsor revenue and municipality based sponsorship ie city of Toronto or Mississauga and possibly the province of Ontario who may wish to promote sustainable manufacturing.

This concept would be a Canadian, in fact a North American first.

I have a list of 150 potential vendors, and designers from around the world who are working on smart technologies that we can start to approach.

The exhibits would be theme based, --the sustainable kitchen, the sustainable office, the sustainable retail shelf, the sustainable workspace, the sustainable community, the sustainable city etc and would be updated with new technologies every 3-5 years and have a 1-5 year forward focus. (what's commercially available now or in the very near future.

For other exhibits, there can be a regional or national focus ie smart sustainable technology from the UK, Finland, Germany (Fraunhofer Inst), China, Ukraine, Russia, or Singapore, Hong Kong etc

Corporate sponsors might include: Walmart, Rona, Home Deport, Canadian Tire, Loblaws, Sears, Imperial Oil, the banks (RBC, TD, RBC BMO) etc.

The Sustainability Showcase could be housed in a physical location, or it could tour from location to location around the city or province or be mobile ( on a bus the way the Japanese and Korean do- a display bus turned into a demo center that tours from school to school or to fairs and exhibitions.

OCAD students and staff and Beal senior fellows could play a hand in designing exhibit spaces and sourcing new vendors and sustainable technologies.

Several other revenue opportunities could spin off from this as well

Here’s just a few examples of what can be showcased

1) Environmentally sensible packaging such as Mercury-Absorbant NanoSponge packaging for broken compact fluorescent lamps (CFL's) http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2008/06/mercury-absorba.html

2) Concrete Wood (from the example I mentioned June 2 at OCAD, when Bob Logan was bemoaning the lack of durability of pressboard shelving from Ikea.  See Concrete Wood from lodgepole pine trees destroyed by pine beetles (kills two birds with one stone) http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2007/11/concrete-wood.html

3) End of Traditional Heating and Air conditioning Thin-film version of Active Building Envelope (ABE) systems could make conventional air conditioning and heating equipment obsolete http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2006/07/thinfilm_versio.html

4) OLEDs New High efficiency flat light source OLEDs > Almost any surface in a home, whether flat or curved, could become a light source: walls, curtains, ceilings, cabinets, shelves or tables.  Http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2006/04/new_high_effici.html

Lots more like these

For anyone who is interested in exploring the idea of a Smart Sustainability Showcase for Toronto, we are having a meeting on Tuesday July 22 at 11 am at the Ontario College of Art & Design (OCAD), Beal Institute for Strategic Creativity, room 600, 6th floor , 100 McCaul St, Toronto just south of the Ont Art Gallery.

Please RSVP, so we know how many people are coming

I have had some positive feedback from several organizations, & I’d like to push the concept forward

I'm sending this nationally and internationally in  case you are aware of any designers, vendors, manufacturers or research centers who have interesting cutting edge smart sustainable technology to showcase.

Contact me by email

----Walter  Derzko; Senior Fellow Beal Institute for Strategic Creativity, OCAD 

© 2005-2008 Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant, Keynote Speaker and Lecturer on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

Psychogeography and smart cities-where the smart people live

Noted American academic Richard Florida, who spoke last year at the OCE Discovery 07 conference, apparently liked Toronto so much that the University of Toronto was able to persuade him to move north to Toronto, where he has opened shop at MaRS, becoming the Director of the newly established Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management. Several weeks ago when I dropped in, they were just unpacking boxes and waiting for all the furniture to arrive.A great coup for Canada !!

Author of the new book: Who's your City, Florida writes in a recent Boston Globe story:

"Psychologists have shown that human personalities can be classified along five key dimensions: agreeableness, conscientiousness, extroversion, neuroticism, and openness to experience.  And each of these dimensions has been found to affect key life outcomes from life expectancy and divorce to political ideology, job choices and performance, and innovation and creativity.

What's more, it turns out these personality types are not spread evenly across the country.  They cluster.  And how they cluster tells us much: What city someone might want to move to, the broader character of regions, and even the creative and economic futures of broad swaths of the nation.

Drawing on a database of hundreds of thousands of individual personality surveys compiled by psychologists Jason Rentfrow, Sam Gosling, and Jeff Porter, my team and I were able to map the distribution of personality types across the United States.  The result is a fascinating new way of looking at the country's terrain.

Interestingly, America's psychogeography lines up reasonably well with its economic geography.  Greater Chicago is a center for extroverts and also a leading center for sales professionals.  The Midwest, long a center for the manufacturing industry, has a prevalence of conscientious types who work well in a structured, rule-driven environment.  The South, and particularly the I-75 corridor, where so much Japanese and German car manufacturing is located, is dominated by agreeable and conscientious types who are both dutiful and work well in teams.

The Northeast corridor, including Greater Boston, as well as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Austin, are home to concentrations of open-to-experience types who are drawn to creative endeavor, innovation, and entrepreneurial start-up companies.  While it is hard to identify which came first - was it an initial concentration of personality types that drew industry, or the industry which attracted the personalities?  - the overlay is clear."

Toronto and the surrounding regions--is home to concentrations of open-to-experience types...that's why Richard Florida moved here

See Map and full story in the Boston Globe

© 2005-2008

Walter Derzko --"Changing the world, one idea at a time" ©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on Smart Technologies in the Smart Economy "

The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

"Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are showstoppers..." Walter Derzko

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  - Margaret Mead

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Shanghai to install more 'smart' traffic lights 08-069

Problem

Regular traffic lights function under preset programming, and can't adjust to fluctuation condition on the road.

Smart Solution:

Intelligent traffic lights however, change according to actual traffic flow.

According to the Shanghai Daily from February 15, 2008

"Shanghai plans to install more intelligent traffic lights near on-ramps for elevated roads this year, a city official said Wednesday.

Intelligent traffic signs will also be installed on other streets to guide traffic as an increasing number of construction sites have popped up downtown.

"We want to provide better guidance to drivers," Qian Jianguo, a Shanghai Engineering Administrative Bureau official, said Wednesday.

The bureau uses elevated monitors and sensory loops to capture traffic conditions around the city and sends necessary information back to headquarters for display use. [...]

....an intelligent light turns red shortly after an accident, thus prevent more vehicles from entering the elevated road.

Traffic police often direct traffic during busy periods, but the computerized lights are expected to be more efficient, officials said.

Full story here

The first zero-pollution, zero-waste, zero-carbon, car-free, smart city on earth; Masdar in the United Arab Emirates.08-022

Next month, Masdar (which means "the source" in Arabic) near Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates will host the ground breaking of a six-square-kilometer city that its developers say will be the first zero-pollution, zero-waste city. The city will be capable of housing 47,500 people, who are scheduled to start moving there in 2009. Construction is expected to take 10 years."

The vision of the city, designed by Foster and Partners, is to be a model for sustainable architecture. It will feature a solar-photovoltaic power plant, solar canopies that provide shade, an electric light-rail system, a series of automated transport pods (instead of cars), a desalination facility and wastewater recovery system to grow plants that could be used for biofuels

Full story here >>[...] and here

The 2008 Top Seven Intelligent Communities of the Year 08-015

2008 Top Seven Intelligent Communities of the Year

The Intelligent Community Forum announced today its list of the Top Seven Intelligent Communities of the Year, each a model for economic development in the 21st Century.  The announcement, the second stage of ICF's annual Intelligent Community awards cycle, was made during PTC'08 in Honolulu, Hawaii.

The Smart21, announced last October, were honored during a reception hosted by ICF with generous sponsorship from Korea Telecom, Metrocomnet and Globecomm Systems.  ICF co-founder Louis A. Zacharilla announced the highly anticipated Top Seven during the reception, noting that, for the first time, the Top Seven included three American communities, plus three from the rest of the world that were named to the list a second time. 

Listed in alphabetical order, the 2008 Top Seven Intelligent Communities of the Year are:

* Dundee, Scotland, United Kingdom.  This former industrial center known for "jute, jam and journalism" has transformed itself through intensive government-academic-business collaboration and broadband deployment into a UK center for life sciences and digital media.  An innovative smart card for citizens was so successful that the Scottish Government asked Dundee to run its national program.  With rising net job growth and business starts, Dundee has created a Digital Observatory to track its future progress as an Intelligent Community.  (Top Seven 2007)

* Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada.  This community of 50,000 was a broadband "have not" until the City Council led an effort to aggregate public-sector, university and business demand and created e-Novations, its own fiber carrier, then launched the Fred-eZone wireless network offering free connectivity across the city.  Today, Fredericton contains 70% of the province's knowledge-based businesses and is using ICT to substantially reduce its carbon footprint.

* Gangnam District, Seoul, South Korea.  With only 2.5% of Seoul's population, this district produces 25% of the city's economic activity, and has invested its wealth in the next generation of e-government.  Since 1995, a relentless digital drive has reduced the cost of government while delivering online services, education, quality of life programs and e-democracy to citizens.  Over 70% of citizens have received ICT training through schools, community centers and a TV GOV program.  (Top Seven 2007)

* Northeast Ohio, USA.  The communities of this region are rising from the ashes of deindustrialization to recreate the entrepreneurial business, political and social culture that produced its first wave of prosperity.  A successful fiber network deployment by OneCommunity has been leveraged by government and nonprofits to jumpstart new investment, improve healthcare delivery, bring the best in culture and education to urban schools, and engage tens of thousands of area leaders in collaboration over regional economic development.

* Tallinn, Estonia.  A suggestion by Estonia's president in 1995 that schools be connected to the Internet led to an ICT revolution that has linked 100% of Tallinn's secondary schools to the Web and established over 600 public access points.  More than 100,000 adults have received ICT training, while e-government programs have produced one of the most advanced smart card systems in Europe and a middleware program that slashes the costs of e-government.  It was not until 2004 that the last Russian troops left the country, yet today, Tallinn receives 77% of all foreign direct investment into Estonia and seven out of ten in its workforce are in the service sector.  (Top Seven 2007)

* Westchester County, New York, USA.  This suburb of New York City was largely ignored by broadband carriers until it amassed demand from public agencies and built a multi-gigabit fiber network that now serves over 3,500 companies.  Determined to maintain the quality of life that is its most compelling advantage, the county has invested in promoting business growth, improving the skills of its workforce and fighting digital exclusion in a community that has seen new immigrants become 35% of its population.

* Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA.  Powerful government-business-academic collaboration led by Wake Forest University permitted this former "tobacco capital" to build a fiber network that spurred demand and led to an 88% broadband penetration rate.  The partners have used this digital foundation to develop free computer labs across the region, create an e-government portal that is number three in the nation, and build a sustainable ICT skills training program.  The city and county now count 37,000 biotech employees as residents and will fund a program to put Pcs and broadband connections into the homes of low-income students.

ICF's coveted awards cycle concludes in New York City on May 16, 2008 during the annual Building the Broadband Economy summit, where one of the Top Seven will succeed Waterloo, Ontario, Canada as Intelligent Community of the Year.

The full press release as well as more information on each community and blog postings on the awards process can be found on the ICF Web site.

World Happiness Index

Which county is the happiest in the world? You’ll be surprised. It’s not necessarily directly linked to wealth, so the USA doesn’t come out on top

See here >> [...]

The 2008 Smart21, includes communities from 14 nations

ICF announced this evening its list of the Smart21 Communities of 2008 in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada - ICF's 2007 Intelligent Community of the Year. 

The announcement was made at the conclusion of the "Intelligent Communities and Broadband" conference, presented by Intelligent Waterloo at the Centre for International Governance Innovation.

The Smart21 announcement is the first stage of ICF's annual Intelligent Community of the Year awards cycle.  It is followed by the naming of the Top Seven Intelligent Communities of the Year, selected from among the Smart21, in January 2008.  The cycle concludes in New York City on May 16, 2008 during the annual Building the Broadband Economy summit, where one of the 21 will succeed Waterloo as Intelligent Community of the Year.

The 2008 Smart21 includes communities from 14 nations, with first-time entries from Puerto Rico, Qatar and South Africa.  Three of the communities named to the 2007 Top Seven list (Tallinn, Dundee and the Gangnam District of Seoul) again appear among the 2008 Smart21. 

The United States claimed five spots on the 2008 list, and Canada with three.

Listed in alphabetical order, the 2008 Smart21 are:

• Ashland, Oregon, USA – Returns to the list for the second consecutive year.  Its Ashland Fiber Network is deployed as an open network and supports a diversified base of service providers, which drove a 31% net increase in new business licenses and support an impressive focus on maintaining an environmentally-friendly growth policy. 
• Barceloneta, Puerto Rico – A "well-kept" secret in terms of its attraction to technology oriented businesses, the community of 22,000 has become one of the largest and most important hubs for pharmaceuticals and biotechnology processes in the world. 
• Cape Town, South Africa – The first South African entry to ICF's list of 21 has thriving ICT, media and call center industries supporting a community of 3.2 million where the digital divide is great.  In 2002, only 14% of the population had Internet access.  A new fiber network is anticipated to create and establish 250,000 jobs. 
• Doha (Ad-Dawhah), Qatar – Despite an increase in output since 1999, oil reserves will be depleted by 2020.  In anticipation of this, Doha, the national capitol, has committed nearly 3% of GDP to science and technology initiatives, including Education City, which are beginning to build a society driven by knowledge work. 
• Dublin, Ohio, USA – The city of 40,000, named one of the "hottest places to live" has expanded on the network it created (DubLink) and has formed partnerships with a range of research entities, including the Ohio Supercomputer Center.  It also boasts a successful new WiFi network. 
• Dundee, Scotland – Has continued to transform a former shipbuilding community that suffered severe economic shocks into a national powerhouse and leader in game design and sciences.  The city launched a "digital observatory" project in 2007 to move the community to the next level of connectedness. 
• Edmonton, Alberta, Canada – The community has begun to realize its economic potential and has put the use of broadband and technology in the center.  Cited for its historic establishment of computerized medical records, nanotechnology growth and the partnerships between organizations that have commercial discoveries, yielding 70 active spin-off companies and over 1,000 new jobs. 
• Eindhoven, The Netherlands – Using the familiar brand name "Brainport," the community boasts 70,000 jobs in high-technology and other industries and leads the nation in all categories, including R&D investments. 
• Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada – A community of 81,000 that was named the "smartest in North America" by Cisco, Fredericton has used its community network to leverage traditional strengths in forestry and agriculture with new technology.  Cited for its goal to use broadband to enhance "e-democracy" for a new generation of citizens. 
• Gangnam-gu District, Seoul, South Korea – A leading community and district, which drives 25% of all economic activity within Seoul and is the heart of its e-government innovations.  They recently commercialized a new wireless broadband Internet service, called "Wibro," combining mobility and high-speed for a range of business, social and digital divide functions. 
• Gold Coast City, Australia – Long-range planning and strategy have enabled this long and narrow city, without a central business district, to use broadband to continue to balance its tourist economy.  A broadband expansion project has extended access to 2,000 businesses and coverage now exceeds 95%. 
• Hammarby Sjostad, Sweden – The newest district and community in Sweden, Hammarby Sjostad has incorporated "future proofing" principles based on ICF’s vision.  It boasts the first broadband network in Europe to be "Access Directive" compliant under new EU rules. 
• Hwa Seong Dong Tan, Korea – The second Korean community on the 2008 list, Hwaseong and its new Dong Tan community incorporates the vision of the "U-City" where information access will be ubiquitous.  The community is using IT to make its own construction a model of efficiency.  Hyderabad, India – The community is experiencing tremendous growth and has become a destination for IT businesses.  Its vision is to become a complete knowledge hub by 2020, building on its current broadband network and, realizing the gap that remains in the community, to offer access to every citizen through a technology organization managed by the State government. 
• Isle of Man, UK (Crown Protectorate) – 93% of the residents on this Crown Dependency are satisfied with the quality of life.  Through innovative use of clustering and technology, it again is one of the most successful economies in Europe, using technology in support of its robust banking, finance and space-related industries. 
• Malta – The smallest EU country may be the surprise choice of this year’s Smart21.  It supports an ICT industry of 200 companies and 6,000 workers and, in support of an aggressive plan to produce knowledge workers and keep its lead in innovation, offers free education to its citizens and community technology learning centers in cooperation with Microsoft and other tech companies. 
• Northeast Ohio, USA – The communities of this region of Ohio, under the inspiration of Cleveland-based OneCommunity and a collaborative group of non-profits and other stakeholders, especially in the healthcare sector, have accelerated the pace of institutions connected to their innovative network platform, enabling an impressive recovery in the regional economy. 
• Tallinn, Estonia – Broadband and "e-services" have continued to sustain a services sector which dominates the economy.  One of the first countries in post-Soviet Eastern Europe to receive foreign investments in telecom, Estonia continues to make leaps, with 100% connectivity in its schools, over 1,000 WiFi hotspots and an integrated remote management healthcare network.
• Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada – With its record low unemployment and a rapid rate of growth, this city of 587,891 is enjoying good fortune all around.  Its technology industry, especially small businesses, are outpacing the number of workers available.  A new private-sector based broadband wireless initiative will a support a comprehensive technology plan and its website won a "Best e-Government" award from the UN which will help the community absorb the activity surrounding its hosting of the 2010 Olympic Games. 
• Westchester County, New York, USA – The county north of New York City is a complex mix of 43 different cities and towns from every walk of life.  From it "platinum mile," headquarters to major international corporations such as IBM to heavily-forested communities, where workers live and contribute to the greater NY regional engine, Westchester County (pop.  949,335) has used on of the nation’s most efficient telecommunications networks and broadband structures, as well as the Internet, to effectively serve its citizens (with a special emphasis on the non-English speaking population) and to connect 3,500 businesses in a dizzyingly complex governing environment. 
• Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA – Through an exemplary set of relationships among the non-profit, academic and private sectors, Winston-Salem, situated in Forsyth County, has led the "tobacco state" in areas which impact its citizens’ life in the broadband economy.  This includes a high-speed regional networking hub connecting its world-class universities, with an emphasis on using its network to promote advanced education, technology initiatives and its traditional quality of life. 

This year's list included the smallest nation on the European Union (Malta) and the home of controversial TV network Al-Jazeera (Doha).  It also represented the full range of economic development efforts based on information technology and telecommunications taking place around the world, including communities taking their first major steps toward becoming an Intelligent Community based on ICF’s indicators or criteria.

According to ICF chairman John G. Jung, "Gaining a place among the Smart21 is the first step toward greater recognition as a community or region that is either positioning itself to prosper, or already is prospering in the Digital Age.  This year we found that communities have passed a threshold, and no longer question whether broadband is a key to success, but are attempting to take steps to use the technology to move forward in order to 'future proof' themselves and ensure sustainability."

In his remarks, Mr. Zacharilla noted the range of "green" or environmentally-conscious programs which have been undertaken in Intelligent Communities.

UK Government publishes Strategic Horizon Scans

The Horizon Scanning Centre has commissioned two complementary scans looking ahead up to 50 years : the Sigma Scan and the Delta Scan.

Initial versions of both scans have been published by the contractors who developed them : Sigma Scan by Outsights - Ipsos MORI and Delta Scan  by the Institute for the Future (IFTF).

The Sigma Scan is a broad synthesis of some of the world's best Horizon Scanning sources. It covers future issues and trends across the full public policy agenda. It is drawn from a range of sources including think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals, charities/NGOs, blogs, minority communities, and futurists.

The Delta Scan is an overview of future science and technology issues and trends, with contributions by over 200 science and technology experts from the worlds of government, business, academia and communication in the UKand US.

Develeped over 2005 and 2006 by a team of consultants and futurists,  the Scanning Framework has some novel methodologies and catagories. Each main issue is described as an Issue paper.

The main text of the Issue Papers themselves is divided into a number of different sections:


Headline: Headlines provide a brief description of the future eventuality discussed a pithy note on the main themes contained within the paper.


Keywords: Keywords summarise the coverage of the issue and suggest related issues, domains or topics.


Summary: The summary provides first an Abstract of the Issue (delimited by asterisks) for a quick overview of the whole paper, followed by a description of the trend, event or theme and the debates it raises. This is generally a presentation of the data/evidence in this field, linked where necessary to sources (with no fixed view on likely outcomes).


Implications: this contains a range of possible outcomes that could flow from the Issue as described in the Summary. These incorporate a number of factors where appropriate, including social values, habitat/environment, new technologies, knock-on and perverse effects. Early Indicators: This aspect of the Paper suggests possible early warning signs and precursors that should be looked for to indicate that the Issue may indeed be developing as described in the Paper.

Drivers and Inhibitors: Factors, people, institutions or events which will either fuel (Drivers) or act as a barrier (Inhibitors) to the emergence of this Issue.


Parallels and Precedents: Historical, international or cross-cultural examples of
somewhat similar instances which may shed some light either on the evolution of the Issue or the likely success of different strategies in response.


Sources: The list of sources consulted in writing the Paper, with web links, documents and location information where applicable.


Related links: a list of websites that may be of further interest to the reader relating to the topic


Sigma Scan basics: Issue Markers

Each issue has been further labelled with a number of Markers, which provide highly indicative (i.e. not predictive) information about the possible likelihood, impact,
distribution, severity and development time of each Issue:


Impact: This marker is designed to reflect the potential of this issue to create pervasive and/or serious change in the world at large: a development which in cultural, technological, environmental, economic or political terms alters the way we live or perceive the world. Impact is divided into:

• ****Extreme: Intense, deep-seated, pervasive or long-lasting in its effects. An event/development which profoundly affects the planet for example, an asteroid strike.
• ***High: A great event in human history, something that shapes human history and leaves longstanding cultural residues for example, the moon landings, the establishment of the United Nations, a major pandemic.
• **Medium: A defining aspect of a particular generation or nation's experience of the world. An important footnote in world history, such as the implementation of the Euro, the fall of the Berlin Wall.
• *Low: A development whose scope to instigate change is subtle or in some way restrained by conditions, medium, force, locality or likely responses. Something that captures the news agenda for months or years, but eventually fades into the cultural memory for example, the cultural changes of the 1960s.
• ?Unknown: There is no consensus within the literature about how best to interpret this issue.

Likelihood: The likelihood that this issue will evolve to become a central theme/development - in some way - in future society within its projected life span. The likelihood markers are:

• ***High: 75+% confidence that the events discussed will come to pass.
• **Medium: An equivocal 50/50 call.
• *Low: 25% or less probability.
• ?Unknown: No consensus about the likelihood.
  
  

Controversy: The level of consensus amongst experts, commentators and other observers holds that the Issue will unfold in the way described in the Paper and/or assume a greater significance in acting as an instigator of change. The controversy markers are:

• ***High: Very few experts pay the issue serious attention, and there is very little consensus about the extent to which this issue is likely to emerge. There is very little known evidence for this issue, and what there is highly unconventional, or propounded by alternative sources.
• **Medium: Whilst there is some kind of conventional consensus, futurists and/or alternative sources dispute whether this issue is likely to be a central development in future. Evidence is somewhat equivocal or open to scrutiny, even within expert audiences.
• *Low: The majority of experts, as well as a large volume of authoritative evidence, point to this issue emerging as a central theme over the next 50 years.
• ?Unknown: No known consensus on how to apply this marker.

When: The expected timeframe for this issue to influence C.21st life to the degree ascribed to it under "Impact". Divided into:

• 0-2 years: This impact of this issue is already being felt or will be in the immediate future
• 3-10 years: Likely to be under way but perhaps not well distributed. Wider effects felt over the near horizon
• 11-20 years: Mid horizon effects
• 21-50 years: Mid to far horizon effects
• 50+ years: Far horizon effects ?Unknown: High level of uncertainty as to when this impact could be felt

Where: The geographical spread of the Issues impact. Divided into:

• Domestic/national Largely restricted to particular nation states (e.g. UK)
• Regional Largely restricted to major global regions/continental areas (e.g. EU, Latin America)
• Global Potential to be experienced anywhere/everywhere on a global scale
• ?Unknown

How fast: How quickly the events and potential impacts described in the Paper could be
experienced:

• Instant in a matter of moments
• Days over the course of days
• Months over months
• Years over years
• Unknown

Sigma Scan basics: Issue Genres


As well as the markers, each paper is also classified into a number of different Genres. This is identified at the start of the Summary in capital letters and is supplied as an at-a-glance way for users to decide what sort of critical thinking they should apply to their reading of the paper. (e.g. in the same way that we would apply different critical faculties for reading a work of science fiction than we would for reading todays
newspaper).

Weak signal: A primarily descriptive Paper attempting to shed light on a relatively little known, weakly felt or poorly distributed phenomenon a possible baby trend at the relative margins of current knowledge. The Implications of this style of paper tend to be limited to explaining what is already starting to happen, and the Drivers / Inhibitors are important in deciding whether it will grow into a Key Driver or dwindle into nothing. The aim of Weak Signal papers is to inform readers about trends or
potential events that might slip under the radar.

Forecast: An Issue for which there is a relatively high degree of certainty, at least in terms of its likely presence as a force for change, based as it is on robust quantitative data and relatively stable variables. Forecast papers are based upon well-grounded and
authoritative sources, drawing on models or statistics to draw conclusions.

Key driver: These Papers describe a relatively more mainstream and better-known trend or development. Something that would probably on the radar of most policymakers or strategy thinkers. Key Driver papers provide a top-level review of the trend for the uninitiated, and aim to stretch the more informed reader with some wider Implications Parallels / Precedents beyond the usual inferences and certainties.

Scenario: A Paper which takes as its evidence base published scenario work from other sources. It therefore discusses the range of uncertainties and drivers that have been discussed in developing these scenarios and compares the assumptions in them. Rather than describing a possible driver of future change, it therefore examines the feasibility and possible implications of a particular hypothetical future.

Wildcard: An Issue with the potential to emerge unexpectedly but with potentially major impacts. Often, these papers deal with a radical discontinuity, as compared to other, more continuous and/or gradual trends.

Smart Maps part 2of 4; Smart Traffic Prediction Maps

Yesterday we looked at Daily Plague Forecasts, to start our smart map series.

Today, I'll explore a Smart Traffic Prediction Map that has been developed by Eric Horvitz at Microsoft Research in Redmond Washington to help keep drivers away from traffic jams.

From New Scientist this week (Oct 21, 2006, pg 32):

"Few things are more irritating than leaving a busy main road to avoid a traffic jam, only to find that everyone else has had the same idea and you are stuck behind yet another queue.

Now a smart electronic map has been developed to help drivers find the best route, using information on nearby roads together with the day of the week, time, weather conditions and the speed of traffic on nearby roads.  Crucially, the software can use road configurations it already knows about to predict how traffic on unfamiliar ones will behave."

[...]

The software called ClearFlow, extends traffic prediction to all roads. Horvitz was able to train his model to predict with 80% accuracy how all side streets would react to changing traffic speed on main arteries."

ETA: available online for Seattle in 2007 via Windows Live. Other US cities to follow.

Full Text (subscription required) see here [...]

© 2005-2006

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

.......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to. - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Happy 1st Birthday to the Smart Economy Blog; Announcing a new Web site, Monthly workshops and webinars

Today marks the 1st anniversary of the Smart Economy Blog. We've received many encouraging feedback & emails from our readers over the past year and good suggestions from positive-focused critics for future improvements.

• According to Pingpoat, The Smart Economy Blog is worth  is $1011.17!  per day
• Inbound links: 1085
• Technorati rank: 34,021

So today, I'm announcing a series of new "smart" initiatives that we will be kicking off in October 2006.

The Smart Economy is growing exponentially and so are we, right along with it.

Smart Economy Learning Series-monthly workshops in Toronto

Starting in October 2006, we will be launching a monthly series of one-day workshops on topics that our blog readers say interest them. These include:

• Latest Tools for Advanced Environmental Scanning, Managing Information Overload and Sense-making ( October 12, 2006, BCE Place Toronto) email me asking for a registration form
• Lateral thinking in business  (Date TBA)
• Developing foresight in your business or industry  (Date TBA)
• Resolving conflicts and disputes using lateral thinking (Date TBA)
• The Opportunity Clinic --Scanning your business environment for Opportunities(Date TBA)
• The Idea Lab --Designing smart products and services that will drive business development forward (Date TBA)
• Introduction to Business Development --Tracking emerging technologies as threats or opportunities for your business (Date TBA)
• Technology Assessment for Investment Professionals & High Tech Startups (Date TBA)
• Building a Busines Case for Smart Devices, objects and services (Date TBA)
• Designing winning business modles for Smart Technologies (Date TBA)

Register today, since space will be limited. Past workshops have sold out quickly.

The Smart Economy Web Page

We are finally in the last stages of planning and constructing our new web site for the Smart Economy. Watch out for launch date soon.

The Smart Economy Webinar Series.

Also starting in October 2006, we will host a monthly opportunity for our blog readers to phone in and participate in a "live seminar" which will include power-point slides and a Q&A session, all from the comfort of your PC or laptop. It will be on some current topic related to the smart economy and some rising smart technology that will be coming into prominence soon. This will be a subscription based series.... We will try to keep the price reasonable so that everyone can participate. Subscription information & schedule will be out soon. Watch for announcements.

Thanks again for all your ideas and keep the feedback coming in.

© 2005-2006

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight,, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To arrange for an in house presentation on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

.......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to. - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page