Recessions and depressions are great periods in history because paradoxes and contradictions seem to stand out even more. The big one facing society in the next two decades is the obvious economic one-everything in our conventional economic paradigm is based on annual, year-over-year growth, yet we appear to be entering a period of "peak resources" ranging from peak water, to peak oil, peak gas and most importantly for business, peak minerals-facts that the green eco-movement often ignores, or is hiding in the closet-the dirty green secret.
A story earlier this month in New Scientist, covered a Financial Times conference on energy and sustainability in London England and it concludes:
"Renewable energy needs to become a lot more renewable...[..]... Although scientists are agreed that we must cut carbon emissions from transport and electricity generation to prevent the globe's climate becoming hotter, and more unpredictable, the most advanced "renewable" technologies are too often based upon non-renewable resources, attendees heard. Supratik Guha of IBM told the conference that sales of silicon solar cells are booming, with 2008 being the first year that the silicon wafers for solar cells outstripped those used for microelectronic devices. But although silicon is the most abundant element in the Earth's crust after oxygen, it makes relatively inefficient cells that struggle to compete with electricity generated from fossil fuels. And the most advanced solar-cell technologies rely on much rarer materials than silicon [-that being indium.]"
[..]...Peak Indium? 10 year of global supply left?
"The efficiency of solar cells is measured as a percentage of light energy they convert to electricity. Silicon solar cells finally reached 25% in late December. But multi-junction solar cells can achieve efficiencies greater than 40%.
Although touted as the future of solar power, those and most other multiple-junction cells owe their performance to the rare metal indium, which is far from abundant. There are fewer than 10 indium-containing minerals, and none present in significant deposits – in total the metal accounts for a paltry 0.25 parts per million of the Earth's crust.
Most of the rare and expensive element is used to manufacture LCD screens, an industry that has driven indium prices to $1000 per kilogram in recent years. Estimates that did not factor in an explosion in indium-containing solar panels reckon we have only a 10 year supply of it left.
If power from the Sun is to become a major source of electricity, solar panels would have to cover huge areas, making an alternative to indium essential."
Could we see resource wars, {which the US military has extensive plans for}, material rationing or outright prohibition like we saw with alcohol in the 1930's? Will we have to select between indium for our cell phones, flat screen TV's or solar cells? Will nanotech breakthroughs come to the rescue? -will an exotic combination of fullerenes, graphenes and carbon nanotubes be the substitution answer? The nanotech race for an alternative is on.--Walter Derzko
They also cover peak Platinum
"The dream of the hydrogen economy faces similar challenges, said Paul Adcock of UK firm Intelligent Energy. A cheap way to generate hydrogen has so far proved elusive. New approaches, such as using bacterial enzymes to "split" water, have a long way to go before they are commercially viable. So far, fuel cells are still the most effective way to turn the gas into electricity. But these mostly rely on expensive platinum to catalyse the reaction.
The trouble is, platinum makes indium appear super-abundant. It is present in the Earth's crust at just 0.003 parts per billion and is priced in $ per gram, not per kilogram. Estimates say that, if the 500 million vehicles in use today were fitted with fuel cells, all the world's platinum would be exhausted within 15 years. Unfortunately platinum-free fuel cells are still a long way from the test track. A nickel-catalysed fuel cell developed at Wuhan University, China, has a maximum output only around 10% of that a platinum catalyst can offer.
A new approach announced yesterday demonstrates that carbon nanotubes could be more effective, as well as cheaper, than platinum. But again it will be many years before platinum-free fuel cells become a commercial prospect."
Also , could Lithium shortages in 10-15 years impede future electric car deployment?
Let’s look at the metal gallium, which along with indium is used to make the next generation of semiconductor materials-indium gallium arsenide for a new generation of solar cells that promise to be up to twice as efficient as conventional designs. Reserves of both metals are disputed, but in a 2007 report Renï Kleijn, from LeidenUniversity in the Netherlands, concludes that current reserves "would not allow a substantial contribution of these cells" to the future supply of solar electricity. He estimates gallium and indium will probably contribute to less than 1 per cent of all future solar cells - a limitation imposed purely by a lack of raw material."
Other projections I've seen-antimony could run out in 10 years; Silver in 10 years, hafnium in 10-15 years and tribium by 2012 or 4-5 years. Looking for the next geopolitical flash point? The US imports 90% of its rare metals and materials from China.
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol 103, p 1209), "Virgin stocks of several metals appear inadequate to sustain the modern 'developed world' quality of life for all of Earth's people under contemporary technology."
I've always wondered what minerals are hidden in the mountains of Afghanistan.... "It is widely acknowledged that one of the key motives for civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1998 and 2002 was the riches to be had from the country's mineral resources, including tantalum mines - the biggest in Africa. The war coincided with a surge in the price of the metal caused by the increasing popularity of mobile phones." (New Scientist, 7 April 2001, p 46).
Ever wonder why China is hoarding every gram of our high tech electronic garbage? It's buying up high-tech scrap to extract metals that are key to its developing industries.
One good thing about this recession / depression shakeout-there will be far fewer firms fighting and scrambling over those increasingly precious resources-buying us a few extra years of transition time.
The lessons here?...Digging minerals out of the ground will no longer automatically confer economic advantage {Canada, Africa, Brazil and China Listen Up}, instead structuring "smart materials" in novel ways will.--Walter Derzko
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© 2005-2009
Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©
Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "
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