Asymmetric Terrorist Threat requires Superior Asymmetric Response by Western Government
As we approach the 5th anniversary of Sept 11, 2001, the rhetoric from both sides is predictable.
Bush has started and will continue to play cheerleader from the safety? of the White house sidelines-His message is simple and direct...."The West is winning the War !! Ra Ra RA !!
I'll even bet that some clever investigative journalist is planning to test the robustness of post 9/11 security at some location around the world on the 5th anniversary of the biggest al Quaida attack in US history. Don't be surprised to read about it in two day.
Al Quaida has already issued an growing number of audio and even video releases to maintain and boost troop moral, signaling victory in the PR war and threat escalation war (perceived threats are just as real and effective as actual threats) and general fear mongering.
It's working.
You've heard of the 80:20 rule. Now remember the 1:10:100 Multiplier Rule
Several hundreds of thousands of dollars (the cost to stage 9/11) has a multiplier effect of several hundreds of millions (direct losses from 9/11) and several billions of dollars of indirect secondary and tertiary consequences (Thinking just one tech response -- $500 million dollars to fund over 500 data-mining and text-mining projects by Homeland security , DoD and DARPA. (most of which, don't work)
Annual surveys show that public confidence in government continues to drop as 5th anniversary of 9/11 approaches.
A Crisis of Confidence
"Five years after September 11 and one year after Hurricane [Katrina], public confidence in the government to protect the area they live has hit a new low. Only 44% of the American public believes that the federal government can protect their community from a terrorist attack. This is a sharp and ongoing erosion of confidence, down from a high of 62% in 2003, and the second consecutive year that fewer than half of the American public believes government can protect them. Confidence in the health system to respond to a biological, chemical, or nuclear attack has also steadily declined. Barely one–fourth (28%) are confident compared to 53% in 2002. Worse still, only 23% believe the health care system is ready to respond effectively to a bird flu pandemic. When asked about specific aspects of keeping America safe, there are no signs of increased confidence. Just over one-third (36%) of the American public believes government can protect public transportation from terrorism, down from 43% in 2004. Also, just over one-third (36%) are confident that shipping ports are protected, confidence in the government’s ability to protect U.S. borders (31%), and being confident in the government to oversee spending and set priorities on terrorism and disaster preparedness (35%)."
Don't forget ....Bin Laden's goal is not to kill every American,as much as he'd like to, but just to bankrupt the American nation.
Western governments are missing a huge opportunity window here. Stafford Beer's Viable Systems Modeling and the cybernetic Law of Requisite Variety requires that in response to the prime advantage of terrorists-the element of surprise and an indeterminable course of action ( we don't know for sure, how, when and where terrorists will strike next), the government needs to respond (pre-spond I would argue) with an equal or superior asymmetric "stance".
Sadly most policy crafters (public policy makers & political decision makers) were never trained in creative, lateral thinking and lack asymmetric, lateral vision.
The government needs to change tactics from ones that are, by enlarge defensive and technology-backed to a pro actively offensive strategy
A good historic example is Reagan's Star War programming. In announcing the Star Wars Program ( which was and is still largely a technical challenge) during the cold war, Reagan set off a course of action and reaction that in a very short period of time, effectively bankrupt the Soviet military-industrial complex and scientific community -in other words, the whole economy for all intensive purposes. The FSU (former Soviet Union) tried in vain to play catch-up to the superior ( but not totally adequate and up-to-par ) American scientific know-how and applied technology.
The same lateral strategy needs to be used against terrorists.
America's Achilles heal, US and Canadian sea ports are vulnerable to nuclear and other WMD attacks. A surprisingly simple asymmetric tactic can but hasn't been used effectively to reverse the terrorist advantage from a situation of port susceptibility to one of an impenetrable wall. {think bio-mimicry]
See Related post> Sept 16, 2005 #11) impacts of post 9/11 smart surveillance (updated)
Key concepts & New Buzz words to learn and remember
Asymmetric Lateral Thinking, Strategic Advantage
© 2005-2006
Walter Derzko
Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight,, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "
To arrange for an in house presentation on smart technology see here
To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together
.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb
.......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to. - H. Mumford Jones
"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought." A. Einstein
P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page
To help you get started, Mediamatic is organizing a wearables workshop where you can develop your own Arduino-driven wearable. Assisted by Massimo Banzi, one of the creators of the Arduino board and several coding/soldering/sewing helpers you have three days to make your prototype in the stimulating surroundings of the Mediamatic Winter Garden."
Recent Comments