Smart Economy

The four worst "endemic surveillance societies" Russia, China, the US, and the UK 08-009

Russia, China, the US, and the UK, are the worst "endemic surveillance societies", according to a recent study examining privacy protection around the world -giving the four nations the lowest possible rating ( coloured black on the map on the left; countries in grey not rated)

The 10th annual report showed a global increase in surveillance and a decline in privacy safeguards during 2007, as concerns over immigration and border control continued to dominate national policy agendas.

Canada's score: In the middle with some safeguards but weakened protection (bending to US pressures)

CANADA

• Privacy not mentioned in Charter of Rights and Freedoms, but courts have recognised the right to a reasonable expectation of privacy
• Statutory rules at the federal level (public and private sectors) and provincial laws apply to sectors and governments
• Federal commission is widely recognised as lacking in powers such as order-marking powers, and ability to regulate trans-border data flows
• Variety of provincial privacy commissioners have made privacy-enhancing decisions and taken cases through the courts over the past year (particularly Ontario)
• Court orders required for interception and there is no reasonable alternative method of investigation
• Video surveillance is spreading despite guidelines from privacy commissioners
• Highly controversial no-fly list, lacking legal mandate
• Continues to threaten new policy on online surveillance
• Increased calls for biometric documents to cater for U.S. pressure, while plans are still unclear for biometric passports

See full story in New Scientist

and actual privacy report

Ethnic patterns in the emerging science of pharmacogenomics or Is there a gene for being Russian ? Could it be a target for ethnic bioweapons? 07-172

Just as we hear news that the entire genome of James Watson- the scientist who discovered the DNA helix structure, is the first to be sequenced for less than $1M and taking 2 month's time, a more sinister story appears  half way across the globe. (BTW, the Human Genome project cost $3 Billion   and took 7 years. The price tag several months ago was $500,000, today it's $100,000; the mid term target under $10,000 and long term for $1,000; & you can now get 1% of your genome deemed most medically useful sequenced for only $1,000)

The newspaper Kommersant, writes:

"Last week the Russian Federal Customs Service (FTS) shut down the export from the country of all human medical biological materials, from hair to blood samples.

According to information obtained by the Russian newspaper Kommersant, the decision by the FTS was prompted by a report submitted to Vladimir Putin by the FSB that focuses on bioterrorism and the alleged development by the West of "genetically engineered biological weapons" .....targeted specifically at Russians.

Well, even the prestigious Science magazine from the UK, New Scientist gave it coverage when the story broke.

But with so little concrete information and only accusations, it's hard to tell at this point if this a hoax, Russian propaganda reminiscent of the cold war or a knee-jerk reaction to a real concern?

.....One thing I can speculate is that this is not an asymetric situation- if the west is doing it, then so are the Russians...the west may just be further ahead, hence the panic warning by the FSB--WD

"Federal Customs Service head Andrei Belyaninov also confirmed the existence of the ban yesterday, but declined to provide any further details, saying only that the ban on the export of biological materials is a consequence of a "special regime" introduced by the FTS "on the initiative of the Ministry of Health. He conjectured that the grounds for the decision may be "scandals involving the transplantation of human organs."

However, the English language Kommersant later writes:

FSB officials explained that this is... "part of the agency's struggle against "bioterrorism," a struggle that President Vladimir Putin approved in 2004 against what has so far been a phantom enemy."

"An [unnamed] source in medical circles who is acquainted with the situation told Kommersant that the ban follows the presentation of a report by FSB head Nikolai Patrushev to President Putin in early May of this year.

"According to the source, the report thus characterizes the situation in the market for clinical trials:

Sounding like a Hollywood SciFi thriller movie...[wd] ..."several large Western medical centers that receive shipments of biological materials from Russia are said to be involved in the development of "genetically engineered biological weapons" for use against the Russian population.  The list of organizations purportedly working on the project includes the Harvard School of Public Health, the American International Health Alliance, the Environment and Natural Resources Division of the US Department of Justice, the Swedish Karolinska Institute and Agency for International Development, and the Indian Genome Institute. Kommersant's source reported that the report contains a wealth of fantastical details about the development of "ethnically oriented" biological weapons capable of rendering Russia's population sterile and even killing it off."

"IMHO, looking at straight forward Russian demographics, drug use, suicides, uncontrolled pollution, drinking water problems and alcoholism, Russian society is doing a credible enough job of creating its own sterile population and killing itself off, without any outside intervention. The Russian population fell by nearly 800,000 people last year

Sounds like the Russians are setting the stage to blame the west for all its social ills instead of itself for its lack of anything resembling a effective nation-wide social program.--wd

More immediately, this move could threaten the lives of tens of thousands of patients in the country where labwork is all outsourced to the west and completely paralyze clinical research trials being conducted by Western pharmaceutical companies in Russia, a business that is estimated to be worth $100-150 million annually.  Other countries are likley to jump in to pick up the "left behind" clinical trial business such as neighbouring Ukraine, the Eastern European block countries and possibly India and China.

"[unnamed] Sources indicate that the ban on the export of biological materials was a direct result of a government memo signed by First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov that was circulated on May 22, 2007 to Health Minister Mikhail Zurabov, FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, and Justice Minister Vladimir Ustinov.  However, it has so far been impossible to determine whether that memo was linked to Mr. Patrushev's report about bioterrorism."

In a related story the BBC reports on a newscast aired by NTV Mir, Moscow, in Russian 1500 30 May 07

[Aleksey Yablokov, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Science] said " when molecular biology was developing and the human genome was being decoded, the military did indeed spend vast amounts of money to produce these ethnic weapons, and they were produced.  We know it.  For instance, special molecular genetic matrices were made to destroy only the blacks and spare the whites."

...N.B In the time-honored Russian tradition of vagueness, there was no mention in the above story which country's military did this research. Was it the Russians ? the USA? or someone else? The finger-pointing seems to be at the USA.

This notion of ethnic genetic variability is supported by clinical trial data, released this weekend in a press release titled..Gene variations point to why lung cancer drugs work better in Japanese vs. US patients.

"Last year, a groundbreaking international project found that a group of Japanese patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer survived longer —and had a higher rate of side effects — than U.S. patients with the same diagnosis,.when both groups were given two well-known drugs for the disease.

Now, a follow-up study suggests the reasons appear to lie in subtle variations in certain genes that govern how the body metabolizes chemotherapy drugs. The discovery that Japanese and U.S. patients, matched in age, gender and other respects, had differences in key metabolism-related genes is the latest result from a seven-year collaboration between the Southwest Oncology Group and two clinical trials groups in Japan. The recent study breaks new ground by exploring the possible role of ethnic patterns in the emerging science of pharmacogenomics, which promises to tailor drug regimens to a patient’s genetic profile." 

“Nobody else in the world has ever done this, with a common arm looking at genetic differences among ethnic groups,” say researchers.

...this just shows again that technology is a double edge sword.

© 2005-2007

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Smart House For People With Dementia 07-035

A groundbreaking home that uses the latest smart technology to give people with dementia and other serious long-term health conditions greater independence has been showcased for the first time in Bristol in the UK.

The technology, which has been developed by the Bath Institute of Medical Engineering (BIME) in the School for Health at the University of Bath, has been designed to help people readjust to living on their own after a stay in hospital, and aims to reduce the risk of users being readmitted to hospital or going into long term care.

It uses special sensors that can wirelessly 'talk' to devices, such as the cooker (stoves), taps and light switches, in response to the behaviour of the resident. By monitoring movement within the home, the system is able to respond to many different situations without having to contact care staff, often just using simple voice prompts, which could be recorded by family members.

The whole installation is quite unique because it is designed to empower the resident rather than relying on outside help to deal with problems.

What can this smart technology do?

• If the occupant was detected opening the main door at inappropriate times they would be given a prompt to let them know the time and encourage them to go back to bed. If they continued to go out, care staff would be alerted.
• If the occupant got out of bed at night, the bedroom lights would be gently faded up.
• If the occupant got back into bed and left the lights on, the house would wait a couple of minutes and then fade the lights off. The user could turn the lights on and off themselves at any point.
• If the occupant moved around the house when it was dark, appropriate room lights would be turned on to help orientate them and prevent falls.
• If taps were accidentally left on they would be turned off.
• If the cooker (stove or hot plate) was left on the occupant would be prompted to turn it off. This would be done twice but if they didn't respond, or if smoke was detected near the cooker, it would be turned off and care staff alerted.
• Whilst the cooker hot plates were still hot, even if the cooker had been turned off, a small warning sign would be illuminated saying 'Cooker Hot'.
• If the occupant was detected moving around a lot at night, they would be prompted to encourage them to go back to bed. If they continued to behave restlessly care staff would be alerted.
• Care staff would be alerted through the normal warden call system.

..gee..I don't  have dementia (yet) but I could sure use some of these features in my home. Ever think of designing DIY drop-in modules (like lego blocks) for this stuff?

ETA: now demo home....no mention of dsesign or construction costs or maintance costs.

Full story here >> [...]

© 2005-2007

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

"Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are showstoppers..." Walter Derzko

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  - Margaret Mead

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

UK Government publishes Strategic Horizon Scans

The Horizon Scanning Centre has commissioned two complementary scans looking ahead up to 50 years : the Sigma Scan and the Delta Scan.

Initial versions of both scans have been published by the contractors who developed them : Sigma Scan by Outsights - Ipsos MORI and Delta Scan  by the Institute for the Future (IFTF).

The Sigma Scan is a broad synthesis of some of the world's best Horizon Scanning sources. It covers future issues and trends across the full public policy agenda. It is drawn from a range of sources including think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals, charities/NGOs, blogs, minority communities, and futurists.

The Delta Scan is an overview of future science and technology issues and trends, with contributions by over 200 science and technology experts from the worlds of government, business, academia and communication in the UKand US.

Develeped over 2005 and 2006 by a team of consultants and futurists,  the Scanning Framework has some novel methodologies and catagories. Each main issue is described as an Issue paper.

The main text of the Issue Papers themselves is divided into a number of different sections:


Headline: Headlines provide a brief description of the future eventuality discussed a pithy note on the main themes contained within the paper.


Keywords: Keywords summarise the coverage of the issue and suggest related issues, domains or topics.


Summary: The summary provides first an Abstract of the Issue (delimited by asterisks) for a quick overview of the whole paper, followed by a description of the trend, event or theme and the debates it raises. This is generally a presentation of the data/evidence in this field, linked where necessary to sources (with no fixed view on likely outcomes).


Implications: this contains a range of possible outcomes that could flow from the Issue as described in the Summary. These incorporate a number of factors where appropriate, including social values, habitat/environment, new technologies, knock-on and perverse effects. Early Indicators: This aspect of the Paper suggests possible early warning signs and precursors that should be looked for to indicate that the Issue may indeed be developing as described in the Paper.

Drivers and Inhibitors: Factors, people, institutions or events which will either fuel (Drivers) or act as a barrier (Inhibitors) to the emergence of this Issue.


Parallels and Precedents: Historical, international or cross-cultural examples of
somewhat similar instances which may shed some light either on the evolution of the Issue or the likely success of different strategies in response.


Sources: The list of sources consulted in writing the Paper, with web links, documents and location information where applicable.


Related links: a list of websites that may be of further interest to the reader relating to the topic


Sigma Scan basics: Issue Markers

Each issue has been further labelled with a number of Markers, which provide highly indicative (i.e. not predictive) information about the possible likelihood, impact,
distribution, severity and development time of each Issue:


Impact: This marker is designed to reflect the potential of this issue to create pervasive and/or serious change in the world at large: a development which in cultural, technological, environmental, economic or political terms alters the way we live or perceive the world. Impact is divided into:

• ****Extreme: Intense, deep-seated, pervasive or long-lasting in its effects. An event/development which profoundly affects the planet for example, an asteroid strike.
• ***High: A great event in human history, something that shapes human history and leaves longstanding cultural residues for example, the moon landings, the establishment of the United Nations, a major pandemic.
• **Medium: A defining aspect of a particular generation or nation's experience of the world. An important footnote in world history, such as the implementation of the Euro, the fall of the Berlin Wall.
• *Low: A development whose scope to instigate change is subtle or in some way restrained by conditions, medium, force, locality or likely responses. Something that captures the news agenda for months or years, but eventually fades into the cultural memory for example, the cultural changes of the 1960s.
• ?Unknown: There is no consensus within the literature about how best to interpret this issue.

Likelihood: The likelihood that this issue will evolve to become a central theme/development - in some way - in future society within its projected life span. The likelihood markers are:

• ***High: 75+% confidence that the events discussed will come to pass.
• **Medium: An equivocal 50/50 call.
• *Low: 25% or less probability.
• ?Unknown: No consensus about the likelihood.
  
  

Controversy: The level of consensus amongst experts, commentators and other observers holds that the Issue will unfold in the way described in the Paper and/or assume a greater significance in acting as an instigator of change. The controversy markers are:

• ***High: Very few experts pay the issue serious attention, and there is very little consensus about the extent to which this issue is likely to emerge. There is very little known evidence for this issue, and what there is highly unconventional, or propounded by alternative sources.
• **Medium: Whilst there is some kind of conventional consensus, futurists and/or alternative sources dispute whether this issue is likely to be a central development in future. Evidence is somewhat equivocal or open to scrutiny, even within expert audiences.
• *Low: The majority of experts, as well as a large volume of authoritative evidence, point to this issue emerging as a central theme over the next 50 years.
• ?Unknown: No known consensus on how to apply this marker.

When: The expected timeframe for this issue to influence C.21st life to the degree ascribed to it under "Impact". Divided into:

• 0-2 years: This impact of this issue is already being felt or will be in the immediate future
• 3-10 years: Likely to be under way but perhaps not well distributed. Wider effects felt over the near horizon
• 11-20 years: Mid horizon effects
• 21-50 years: Mid to far horizon effects
• 50+ years: Far horizon effects ?Unknown: High level of uncertainty as to when this impact could be felt

Where: The geographical spread of the Issues impact. Divided into:

• Domestic/national Largely restricted to particular nation states (e.g. UK)
• Regional Largely restricted to major global regions/continental areas (e.g. EU, Latin America)
• Global Potential to be experienced anywhere/everywhere on a global scale
• ?Unknown

How fast: How quickly the events and potential impacts described in the Paper could be
experienced:

• Instant in a matter of moments
• Days over the course of days
• Months over months
• Years over years
• Unknown

Sigma Scan basics: Issue Genres


As well as the markers, each paper is also classified into a number of different Genres. This is identified at the start of the Summary in capital letters and is supplied as an at-a-glance way for users to decide what sort of critical thinking they should apply to their reading of the paper. (e.g. in the same way that we would apply different critical faculties for reading a work of science fiction than we would for reading todays
newspaper).

Weak signal: A primarily descriptive Paper attempting to shed light on a relatively little known, weakly felt or poorly distributed phenomenon a possible baby trend at the relative margins of current knowledge. The Implications of this style of paper tend to be limited to explaining what is already starting to happen, and the Drivers / Inhibitors are important in deciding whether it will grow into a Key Driver or dwindle into nothing. The aim of Weak Signal papers is to inform readers about trends or
potential events that might slip under the radar.

Forecast: An Issue for which there is a relatively high degree of certainty, at least in terms of its likely presence as a force for change, based as it is on robust quantitative data and relatively stable variables. Forecast papers are based upon well-grounded and
authoritative sources, drawing on models or statistics to draw conclusions.

Key driver: These Papers describe a relatively more mainstream and better-known trend or development. Something that would probably on the radar of most policymakers or strategy thinkers. Key Driver papers provide a top-level review of the trend for the uninitiated, and aim to stretch the more informed reader with some wider Implications Parallels / Precedents beyond the usual inferences and certainties.

Scenario: A Paper which takes as its evidence base published scenario work from other sources. It therefore discusses the range of uncertainties and drivers that have been discussed in developing these scenarios and compares the assumptions in them. Rather than describing a possible driver of future change, it therefore examines the feasibility and possible implications of a particular hypothetical future.

Wildcard: An Issue with the potential to emerge unexpectedly but with potentially major impacts. Often, these papers deal with a radical discontinuity, as compared to other, more continuous and/or gradual trends.

T-ray breakthrough could make detecting disease and explosives far easier

A breakthrough in the harnessing of 'T-rays' - electromagnetic terahertz waves - which could dramatically improve the detecting and sensing of objects as varied as biological cell abnormalities and explosives has been announced.

Researchers at the University of Bath, UK, and in Spain have said they have found a way to control the flow of terahertz radiation down a metal wire. 

Terahertz radiation, whose frequency is around one thousand billion cycles a second, bridges the gap between the microwave and infrared parts of the electromagnetic spectrum.   X-rays, microwaves, radio waves and visible light, are all manifestations of electromagnetic radiation at different frequencies

Materials interact with radiation at T-ray frequencies in different ways than with radiation in other parts of the spectrum, making T-rays potentially important in detecting and analysing chemicals by examining how they absorb T-rays fired at them.

This would allow quality control of prescribed drugs and detection of explosives to be carried out more easily, as many complex molecules have distinctive 'signatures' in this part of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Problem:

T-ray applications are presently limited by the relatively poor ability to focus the rays, which is achieved using the conventional means of lenses and mirrors to focus the radiation.  This limits the spot size of focused T-rays to a substantial fraction of a millimetre and this has made studies of small objects such as biological cells with high resolution are virtually impossible.

Smart Solution:

In their work, the researchers found that although ordinary metal wire would not guide T-rays very well, if a series of tiny grooves was cut into the wire, it would do so much more effectively.  If such a corrugated metal wire is then tapered to a point it becomes possible to very efficiently transport radiation to a point as small as a few millionths of a metre across.

Significance:

This might, for example, lead to breakthroughs in examining very small objects such as the interior of biological cells where it might be possible to detect diseases or abnormalities.  T-rays could also be directed to the interior of objects which could be useful in applications like endoscopic probing for cancerous cells or explosive detection.

"This is a significant development that would allow unprecedented accuracy in studying tiny objects and sensing chemicals using T-rays" said Dr Stefan Maier, of the University of Bath's Department of Physics.

"Metal wire ordinarily has a limited ability to allow T-rays to flow along it, but our idea was to overcome this by corrugating its surface with a series of grooves, in effect creating an artificial material or 'metamaterial' as far as the T-rays are concerned."

"In this way, the T-rays can be focused to the tip of the wire and guided into confined spaces or used to detect small objects, with important implications for disease detection or finding explosive that are hidden."

ETA: 2007

The researchers hope to produce a working model within a year.

Original Research:

Their findings are set out in a letter published in the current journal Physical Review Letters titled "Terahertz surface plasmon polariton propagation and focusing on periodically corrugated metal wires".

Full press release >> [...]

© 2005-2006

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  - Margaret Mead

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Smart automated Political Risk Analysis

Problem:

Corporations who are seeking to expand their international operations(either by making substantial investments in local corporations, by developing new products for new markets, or by establishing regional manufacturing, distribution, or sales facilities) often encounter substantial risks that greatly differ from the domestic risks they encounter at home. 

These include:

• physical risks (e.g., the kidnapping or assassination of executives),
• economic risks (e.g., currency fluctuations and discriminatory confiscation of assets),
• market risks (e.g., rejection by foreign consumers of products that were successful domestically), and
• technological risks (e.g., lack of a reliable telecommunications infrastructure)
• political risk

Political risk has been defined as

"… the possibility that political decisions, events, or conditions in a country, including those that might be defined as social, will affect the business environment such that investors will lose money or have a reduced profit margin,"

Examples include:

• corruption,
• punitive taxation, and
• arbitrary rejection of license applications. 

Political risks are best defined in terms of political events.  Political events result in part from decisions made by political actors-such as government officials (e.g., politicians, legislators, and regulators).  The decisions they make include decisions to expropriate property, to delay consideration of license applications, retreat on or disregard signed prior agreements and to ignore intellectual property violations.

These actors may be advised by influencers --certain non-government organizations (NGOs)-such as environmental, charitable, social, and religious organizations-who may also be considered political actors. as well.  In addition, political actors and influencers may include religious leaders, foreign investors, local oligarchs and business owners (who may be politicians, as well ) and others whose actions may affect political events.  The actors may be identified explicitly, or the events they generate may be the only overt signs of their presence.

The key to analyzing political events is obtaining good reliable information about these events.

This can be done in the traditional way with tried and true on-the-ground intelligence (see " A framework for conducting political event analysis using group support systems"; Decision Support Systems Volume 38, Issue 4 , January 2005, Pages 511-527) or with novel emerging smart decision support systems, such as a smart early warning system of internal armed conflict and a concept known as "Conflict Carrying capacity"

Smart Solution:

Researchers at Harvard and Ohio State University have been working for the past 6 or so years on an automated Political Crisis Early Warning System that anticipates the worst case scenario --internal armed conflict.

An early paper on was published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution in 2001. Conflict-Carrying Capacity, Political Crisis, and Reconstruction A Framework for the Early Warning of Political System Vulnerability by J. Craig Jenkins, Department of Sociology, Ohio State University and  Doug Bond, Program on Nonviolent Sanctions and Cultural Survival, Harvard University, Center of Excellence in Disaster Management & Humanitarian Assistance

Abstract

"The early warning of protracted political violence needs firm empirical footing in dynamic indicators of the political processes leading to political crises.  This study provides a conceptual framework for the analysis of conflict-carrying capacity (or CCC) defined as the ability of political systems to regulate intense internal conflicts.  CCC is indexed by the multiplicative interaction between the proportions of civil contention, state repression, and violence.  The PANDA Project (1983-1994) is used to illustrate the usefulness of this CCC index in capturing system stability in an institutionalized democracy (the United States), a bureaucratic-authoritarian regime (Mexico), an institutionalized Communist regime (China), and a peaceful democratic transition (Poland).  It provides early warning signals of civil war (Algeria, Sri Lanka) and moves toward political stability (Peru).  Civil contention and state repression are not destabilizing per se.  Rather it is the simultaneous combination of these with violent contention that leads to internal political crises and, alternatively, to political stabilization."

Source: Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.  45, No.  1, 3-31 (2001)

ETA: Now Recent work on the model has advanced far enough to provide fairly good predictive results.

N.B. This new foresight tool is unlikely to replace political analysts or futurists but provide them with a more robust anticipatory capability. This tool may provide the early warning signal of an event, but not the opportunity or threat windows that result.....that takes human intelligence.

2005-2006

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  - Margaret Mead

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Smart Maps; part 4 of 4; An emerging Global Intelligence Halo formed by smart satellites & ground sensors

An emerging Global Intelligence Halo formed by smart satellites & ground sensors--the really, really BIG brother !!

NASA's EO-1 (short for "Earth Observing 1") is a new breed of satellite that can think by itself with the help of AI programming to notice things that change (like the sudden plume of a volcano) and take appropriate action, such as monitoring that specific location before anyone even notices the event on the ground.

EO-1 can re-organize its own priorities to study volcanic eruptions, flash floods, forest fires, disintegrating sea-ice, and other unexpected events.  It can also use sensors from other satellites or on the ground as a "sensorweb" to respond to sudden disasters such forest fires.

"It's a powerful new way to study Earth," say researchers.

Full story here from NASA >> [...]

The million dollar question? will NASA or some else become the information broker for all this streaming data?

© 2005-2006

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

.......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to. - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Happy 1st Birthday to the Smart Economy Blog; Announcing a new Web site, Monthly workshops and webinars

Today marks the 1st anniversary of the Smart Economy Blog. We've received many encouraging feedback & emails from our readers over the past year and good suggestions from positive-focused critics for future improvements.

• According to Pingpoat, The Smart Economy Blog is worth  is $1011.17!  per day
• Inbound links: 1085
• Technorati rank: 34,021

So today, I'm announcing a series of new "smart" initiatives that we will be kicking off in October 2006.

The Smart Economy is growing exponentially and so are we, right along with it.

Smart Economy Learning Series-monthly workshops in Toronto

Starting in October 2006, we will be launching a monthly series of one-day workshops on topics that our blog readers say interest them. These include:

• Latest Tools for Advanced Environmental Scanning, Managing Information Overload and Sense-making ( October 12, 2006, BCE Place Toronto) email me asking for a registration form
• Lateral thinking in business  (Date TBA)
• Developing foresight in your business or industry  (Date TBA)
• Resolving conflicts and disputes using lateral thinking (Date TBA)
• The Opportunity Clinic --Scanning your business environment for Opportunities(Date TBA)
• The Idea Lab --Designing smart products and services that will drive business development forward (Date TBA)
• Introduction to Business Development --Tracking emerging technologies as threats or opportunities for your business (Date TBA)
• Technology Assessment for Investment Professionals & High Tech Startups (Date TBA)
• Building a Busines Case for Smart Devices, objects and services (Date TBA)
• Designing winning business modles for Smart Technologies (Date TBA)

Register today, since space will be limited. Past workshops have sold out quickly.

The Smart Economy Web Page

We are finally in the last stages of planning and constructing our new web site for the Smart Economy. Watch out for launch date soon.

The Smart Economy Webinar Series.

Also starting in October 2006, we will host a monthly opportunity for our blog readers to phone in and participate in a "live seminar" which will include power-point slides and a Q&A session, all from the comfort of your PC or laptop. It will be on some current topic related to the smart economy and some rising smart technology that will be coming into prominence soon. This will be a subscription based series.... We will try to keep the price reasonable so that everyone can participate. Subscription information & schedule will be out soon. Watch for announcements.

Thanks again for all your ideas and keep the feedback coming in.

© 2005-2006

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight,, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To arrange for an in house presentation on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

.......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to. - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Chitosan sequesters whole body radiation

Problem:

The detonation of a suitcase-sized nuclear bomb by a terrorist in a major city would spread toxic material over a wide area exposing humans to various types of radioactive elements.  Currently, there are no effective methods to sequester and remove radionuclides from humans in the event of a disaster such as this. 

Smart Natural Solution:

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) scientist Tatiana Levitskaia is investigating a unique approach based on a readily available biomaterial that might be used to reduce an individual's radiation dose. 

Levitskaia reported on the technology at the 232nd annual national meeting of the American Chemical Society.

Chitosan is a natural and safe material found to be an effective chelator for a wide range of nuclides.  Chitosan is obtained from chitin and found in the exoskeletons of many invertebrates such as crabs and prawns.  It's one of the most abundant, readily available and renewable natural biopolymers, second only to cellulose. 

Some chitosan materials can be chemically modified to enhance their affinity to particular radionuclides.  By binding to radionuclides, scientists speculate that chitosan may suppress deposition in bones and critical organs like the liver and kidney, and accelerate removal from the body. 

Levitskaia's research is directed toward finding a natural chelator like chitosan that can safely and effectively rid the body of diverse radionuclides such as actinides, cobalt, strontium, and radium. 

ETA: 2-5 years for proof-of concept; 10 years for clinical trials

Currently, Levitskaia's investigation involves the removal of cobalt from living tissues in laboratory rats.  Results are expected this fall.

Who's searching for chitosan vs chitin

Trend history

chitosan    chitin   

Cities

Regions

Languages

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	Top cities (normalized)
1.	Ulm, Germany
2.	Jakarta, Indonesia
3.	Bangkok, Thailand
4.	Taipei, Taiwan
5.	Barcelona, Spain
6.	Santiago, Chile
7.	Madrid, Spain
8.	Hamburg, Germany
9.	Stuttgart, Germany
10.	Berlin, Germany

	Top regions (normalized)
1.	Indonesia
2.	Viet Nam
3.	Thailand
4.	South Korea
5.	Malaysia
6.	Taiwan
7.	India
8.	Chile
9.	Singapore
10.	Spain

	Top languages (normalized)
1.	Indonesian
2.	Vietnamese
3.	Thai
4.	Korean
5.	Romanian
6.	German
7.	Spanish
8.	Portuguese
9.	Chinese
10.	English

Looking for Feedback on the Smart Economy Blog

Today is a bit of an anniversary for the Smart Economy. Since I started on this blog last Fall (Sept 15th, 2005 to be exact), I've posted 500 entries (this is # 501). We've received over 100 comments online and many more private direct emails. Our daily traffic is growing steadily month by month, as word spreads about The Smart Economy. Many other influential and popular web sites, trend syndication services and blogs now link back to us.

• According to Pingpoat, The Smart Economy Blog is worth is $1011.17!  Per day
• Inbound links: 1085
• Technorati rank: 34,021

I'd like to hear feedback from you --- our blog readers. How can we improve this site?

• what do you enjoy reading about smart technologies?
• what else would you like to see?
• what don't you like? what annoys you?
• what suggestions do you have for future topics?
• what  would you like to see more coverage of?
• do you use RSS? would you subscribe to a Smart Economy RSS  news feed?
• would you like to hear news about the smart economy on your Mp3 player?
• would you like a one-stop-shop to purchase smart technologies?
• would you find road maps for smart technologies useful for your worK?
• would you subscribe to a monthly online seminar (webinar) on smart technology?
• would you find workshops on smart technology topics useful?
• how do you use our information? investment decisions? strategic decisions? alliance decisions? other?

Post your replies or comments in the comments box below or send me a private email

I look forward to hearing from you.

Enjoy the rest of 2006 and 2007 and I hope to see you back here on a regular basis.

All the best !!

Walter Derzko