Smart Economy

When will the recession / depression end? Part 20 The Dog that Didn't Bark; Economists say don't pay attention to us

Why should we be listening to economists, when so few of them saw this whole mess coming? The Canadian CBC TV Sunday Morning program put that question to two top economists - Dean Baker, of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, and James K. Galbraith of the University of Texas, son of the famed Canadian economist John Kenneth Galbraith - and ask: whose predictions should we believe now?

These were two of the small group of "minortity" economists, warning of the coming crash, who I have been tracking since the early 2000's ...[BTW, I track "outliers" on all the emerging issues that interest me...ie. I started warning clients about the imminant US  banking system collapse and housing collapse in 2006.]

Why did so few economists see this economic crisis coming? Asks the CBC TV reporter, or what I call the  Dog that Didn’t Bark question.

 

 

Here’s a transcript of what James K Galbraith said:

“…Well I think the  economics profession over that last few decades has kind of closed in on itself, it ceased to discuss history in a serious way and it basically excommunicated that relatively small number  of people, who worked on problems of financial crisis and financial instability.

So, there was no dialogue going on, the prospect was not being raised, the profession was busy congratulating itself on having solving the economic problems, on having basically come up with the right formulas for stable expansion, for the control of inflation and they had completely forgotten that the capitalist system has enormous vulnerabilities that come from of the financial sphere, and in addition to that, they were just unequipped to deal with the catastrophic malpractice that was coming from the financial sector over the last five years, they didn’t have the tools, they weren’t studying it, they were caught blind sided by it.”…[…]….Until the crisis actually broke, nobody was paying attention to us."

Dean Baker replies:

"…I was actually tipped off by Alan Greenspan, back in 2002. He was testifying before Congress and he said there was no problem, no bubble in the housing market. And I was reading his testimony and everything he said did not make any sense. He was giving explanations to why there was this sudden rise in house prices. The basic story is that we have a hundred year long history 1895-1995 where nation-wide at least, house prices had just kept pace with the overall  rate of inflation. In other words, House prices has risen at roughly the same rate as the average  other goods, car prices, clothes, gas, whatever it  might be. Suddenly beginning  in the mid 90’s, house prices began to substantially outpace the rate of inflation and by 2002 they had outpaced the rate of inflation by about  30%. And there was no explanation for it that made any sense, based on fundamentals. So to my mind, when you see a hundred year long trend broken, and there is no explanation,  that’s based on fundamentals, it was sort of crying out: Bubble! Bubble ! Bubble!  And I sort of had bubble on my mind because we had just gotten through the stock bubble, and stock crash. We had two explanations. One -this is being driven by something in the fundamentals that no one could identify or  two --the stock bubble had fed over into the housing bubble as was the case in Japan. So that was seemed to be a pretty easy call to me."

Listen to the full interview..a real eye-opener…

 

And what are most of the mainstream economists saying now..don't worry, it will all be over soon...depending on how you take that....that's what I'm worried about--Walter Derzko.

 

Walter Derzko

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related Recession / Depression Posts

When will the recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

When will the recession/ depression end? Part 18 Hormones and Boom and Bust Cycles

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 17 Recap from the World Economic Forum in Davos

When will the recession end? Part 16 It's all over, well sort of.

When will the recession end? Part 15 Year-end predictions for 2009 starting to come true

When will the recession end? Part 14 Four options for America's race to the bottom

When will the recession end? Part 13 Thirteen economic questions that economists can't answer

When will the recession end? Part 12 Bad times are good times for startups

When will the recession end? Part 11 Bank of Canada optimism

When will the recession end? Part 10, The Conformity Trap or Don't count on your economist for advise

When will the recession end? Part 9 Humor will signal recession /depression bottom

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will this recession end?

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 12 of 28 more on the "First Impressions” trap

Last week we introduced Part 10 of 28 "First Impressions” trap. Today I'd like to offer some more examples of how to address that perception oversight.

As mentioned last week...new ventures often do not correctly anticipate real market opportunities or the best strategies of addressing them, so they are forced to adapt and modify their approach over time. This is even more critical in a recession /depression and is illustrated by a classic 1985 quote by Peter Drucker.

 “When a new venture does succeed, more often than not it is in a market other than the one it was originally intended to serve, with products and services not quite those with which it had set out, bought in large part by customers it did not even think of when it started, and used for a host of purposes besides the ones for which the products were first designed.”--Source: Drucker, P. (1985). Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Practice and Principles. New York: Harper & Row. ( p. 189)

Tactics for Overcoming the "First Impressions” trap.

The first step is a mental and perceptual one--to admit that you were wrong and go back to the drawing board to explore alternate opportunity windows. Here are some more examples from the Opportunity Clinic, which has over 350 Opportunity Scenarios or Windows in its database.

Opportunity Scenario # 92 End User Challenge

An innovation designed by a medical doctor to detect elderly patient falls was found to be too expensive ($1000) by nursing homes, and the immediate nature of the signal was seen as of limited benefit. A more extensive analysis identified the benefits to fire services involved in fighting forest fires – especially the immediate notification of a fall. Fire fighters now have this as standard equipment

(Source: Andrew Maxwell, Canadian Innovations Center (CIC) in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada)

Opportunity Scenario # 28 Primary Customer Focus Challenge

“A wireless company, interested in integrating paper and electronic systems, initially targeted hospitals in Ontario as the first (and largest) application. While this market is still the one with the most potential, the longer then anticipated sales cycles and the long lead times on decision-making in hospitals – was increasing the company’s cash burn rate and was bring in no actual revenue. This caused the company to shift focus and challenge their underlying assumptions. They started to look at  providing a solution to other segments – they chose  independent trucking companies, who could make a decision to buy the system in less than two months. They had the same paper integration concerns, when truckers were crossing the boarder and had to deal with paperwork burdens.”

(Source: Andrew Maxwell, Canadian Innovations Center (CIC) in Waterloo, Ontario Canada)

Bundling two or more Opportunity Windows

Opportunity Scenario #341 Secondary Offerings Opportunities and Opportunity Scenario #29 Circumstance Shift Opportunties

A company who was developing a commercial water purifier system, decided that the water should be store in stainless steel water bottles – due to concerns about polycarbonate bottles. While the water purifier is still in development, the water bottles themselves turned out to be of great interest to retailers, then their original product idea (the water purifier system) – and this product range became the core of a successful new business. Over a million bottles were sold in one year, when concerns about bis-phenol A surfaced in the media.

(Source: Andrew Maxwell, Canadian Innovations Center (CIC) in Waterloo, Ontario Canada)

 

OpportunityScenario #84- Channel Fit and Opportunity Scenario #86 Channel Challenge

An innovation designed for the general consumer market was planned to launch through major retailers – such as Canadian Tire, Shoppers Drug Mart etc. Upon investigation, the entrepereneur found that initially most consumers would not see the immediate benefits – limiting market success. However – individuals with comprised immune systems (such as AIDS) would immediately see the benefits – but would not create enough demand to pull the product through traditional retailer channels. As a result, a web store and web marketing campaign was seen as the initial launch strategy.

(Source: Andrew Maxwell, Canadian Innovations Center (CIC) in Waterloo, Ontario,Canada)

 To incorporate the Opportunity Clinic into your class,  business planning process or to arrange for a key note speech on Opportunity Recognition for a future meeting, conference or forum, call us at 1-416-819-9667

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 13 of 28 Recession wild card scenarios

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 12 of 28 more on the "First Impressions” trap

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 11 of 28 Pretending and Deception as an Opportunity Space

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 10 of 28 "First Impressions” trap

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 9 of 28 The dichotomous thinking trap

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 8 of 28 Industry Architecture Opportunities

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 8 of 28 Industry Architecture Opportunities

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for managing your business in a recession Part 7 of 28  Geopolitical Opportunities;

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

Related Posts over that past year:

·         Opportunity Recognition in Difficult Times

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn – June 25, 2008, Ontario College of Art Design, Toronto, ON

·         Recession-Proofing your Business-Strategies and Tactics for smoother sailing in turbulent seas

·         Master Class in Opportunity Recognition for entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs> May 30th 2008> University of Toronto

·         Turning Misery into Opportunity

·         Vacuum leaves pullout opportunities;

·         How will baby boomers handle the recession? Zoomers, Doomers, Gloomers, Opportuneurs

·         Recession, Depression and Shortages as Opportunities

·         Restructuring of American Business-A New Business Model?

·         Using New Yorker Cartoons for Opportunity Recognition /Sense-making & Pattern Recognition

·         Text Mining for S&T Scouting, Foresight and Opportunity Recognition

·         The Opportunity Clinic-swapping opportunity scenarios 08-002

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

When will the Recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed-Ontario on the Move

Last December I posted a series of suggestions for Canadian Prime Minister Harper and US

President Obama to consider when funding infrastructure. See Top 10 smart technologies for Obama and Harper to consider for their infrastructure / cyberstructure / cognistructure program

Now Richard Florida & his team weighs into the game. This comes from a press release from the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto this morning--Walter Derzko

Ontario on the Move - Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed

Economic history has shown that changes in infrastructure systems have often underlain phases of significant economic growth. Railroads in the 19th century, highway systems of the 1960s, and the internet infrastructure of the late 20th century are prime examples.  The innovation that gives rise to new infrastructure systems is often a response to severe stress and is often driven by desperate circumstances.  Ontario's opportunity lies not in reacting to a crisis but in proactively investing in the infrastructure necessary for future success.

 
This Week's Working Papers:

 

These working papers highlight the diverse array of challenges and opportunities Ontario

faces as it transitions toward the creative age. They represent the next three of twenty working papers that we commissioned to support the core analysis of our report: Ontario in the Creative Age. We hope you find them engaging.

• Infrastructure and the Economy: Future directions for Ontario by Chris Kennedy, Bryan Karney, Eric Miller, and Marianne Hatzopoulou
• Ontario's South Asian Transnationals: Unlocking the Potential of an Untapped Resource by Azmi Haq
• Learning from the Past - Volume 1: The Automotive Industry and Economic Development in Ontario; a Historical Perspective (1904 to the Present) by Stewart Melanson

READ MORE >>

 

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy. Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related Recession / Depression Posts

When will the recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

When will the recession/ depression end? Part 18 Hormones and Boom and Bust Cycles

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 17 Recap from the World Economic Forum in Davos

When will the recession end? Part 16 It's all over, well sort of.

When will the recession end? Part 15 Year-end predictions for 2009 starting to come true

When will the recession end? Part 14 Four options for America's race to the bottom

When will the recession end? Part 13 Thirteen economic questions that economists can't answer

When will the recession end? Part 12 Bad times are good times for startups

When will the recession end? Part 11 Bank of Canada optimism

When will the recession end? Part 10, The Conformity Trap or Don't count on your economist for advise

When will the recession end? Part 9 Humor will signal recession /depression bottom

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will this recession end?

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Why sustainable power is unsustainable?- advanced "renewable" technologies are too often based upon non-renewable resources

Recessions and depressions are great periods in history because paradoxes and contradictions seem to stand out even more. The big one facing society in the next two decades is the obvious economic one-everything in our conventional economic paradigm is based on annual, year-over-year growth, yet we appear to be entering a period of "peak resources" ranging from peak water, to peak oil, peak gas and most importantly for business, peak minerals-facts that the green eco-movement often ignores, or is hiding in the closet-the dirty green secret.

A story earlier this month in New Scientist, covered a Financial Times conference on energy and sustainability in London England and it concludes:

"Renewable energy needs to become a lot more renewable...[..]... Although scientists are agreed that we must cut carbon emissions from transport and electricity generation to prevent the globe's climate becoming hotter, and more unpredictable, the most advanced "renewable" technologies are too often based upon non-renewable resources, attendees heard. Supratik Guha of IBM told the conference that sales of silicon solar cells are booming, with 2008 being the first year that the silicon wafers for solar cells outstripped those used for microelectronic devices. But although silicon is the most abundant element in the Earth's crust after oxygen, it makes relatively inefficient cells that struggle to compete with electricity generated from fossil fuels. And the most advanced solar-cell technologies rely on much rarer materials than silicon [-that being indium.]"

[..]...Peak Indium? 10 year of global supply left?

"The efficiency of solar cells is measured as a percentage of light energy they convert to electricity. Silicon solar cells finally reached 25% in late December. But multi-junction solar cells can achieve efficiencies greater than 40%.

 

Although touted as the future of solar power, those and most other multiple-junction cells owe their performance to the rare metal indium, which is far from abundant. There are fewer than 10 indium-containing minerals, and none present in significant deposits – in total the metal accounts for a paltry 0.25 parts per million of the Earth's crust.

 

Most of the rare and expensive element is used to manufacture LCD screens, an industry that has driven indium prices to $1000 per kilogram in recent years. Estimates that did not factor in an explosion in indium-containing solar panels reckon we have only a 10 year supply of it left.

If power from the Sun is to become a major source of electricity, solar panels would have to cover huge areas, making an alternative to indium essential."

Could we see resource wars, {which the US military has extensive plans for}, material rationing or outright prohibition like we saw with alcohol in the 1930's? Will we have to select between indium for our cell phones, flat screen TV's or solar cells? Will nanotech breakthroughs come to the rescue? -will an exotic combination of fullerenes, graphenes and carbon nanotubes be the substitution answer? The nanotech race for an alternative is on.--Walter Derzko

 

They also cover peak Platinum

"The dream of the hydrogen economy faces similar challenges, said Paul Adcock of UK firm Intelligent Energy. A cheap way to generate hydrogen has so far proved elusive. New approaches, such as using bacterial enzymes to "split" water, have a long way to go before they are commercially viable. So far, fuel cells are still the most effective way to turn the gas into electricity. But these mostly rely on expensive platinum to catalyse the reaction.

The trouble is, platinum makes indium appear super-abundant. It is present in the Earth's crust at just 0.003 parts per billion and is priced in $ per gram, not per kilogram. Estimates say that, if the 500 million vehicles in use today were fitted with fuel cells, all the world's platinum would be exhausted within 15 years. Unfortunately platinum-free fuel cells are still a long way from the test track. A nickel-catalysed fuel cell developed at  Wuhan University, China, has a maximum output only around 10% of that a platinum catalyst can offer.

A new approach announced yesterday demonstrates that carbon nanotubes could be more effective, as well as cheaper, than platinum. But again it will be many years before platinum-free fuel cells become  a commercial prospect."

Also , could Lithium shortages in 10-15 years  impede future electric car deployment?

 

Let’s look at the  metal gallium, which along with indium is used to make the next generation of semiconductor materials-indium gallium arsenide for a new generation of solar cells that promise to be up to twice as efficient as conventional designs. Reserves of both metals are disputed, but in a 2007 report Renï  Kleijn, from LeidenUniversity in the Netherlands, concludes that current reserves "would not allow a substantial contribution of these cells" to the future supply of solar electricity. He estimates gallium and indium will probably contribute to less than 1 per cent of all future solar cells - a limitation imposed purely by a lack of raw material."

Other projections I've seen-antimony could run out in 10 years; Silver in 10 years, hafnium in 10-15 years and tribium by 2012 or 4-5 years. Looking for the next geopolitical flash point? The US imports 90% of its rare metals and materials from China.

(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol 103, p 1209), "Virgin stocks of several metals appear inadequate to sustain the modern 'developed world' quality of life for all of Earth's people under contemporary technology."

 

I've always wondered what minerals are hidden in the mountains of Afghanistan.... "It is widely acknowledged that one of the key motives for civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1998 and 2002 was the riches to be had from the country's mineral resources, including tantalum mines - the biggest in Africa. The war coincided with a surge in the price of the metal caused by the increasing popularity of mobile phones." (New Scientist, 7 April 2001, p 46).

 

 

Ever wonder why China is hoarding every gram of our high tech electronic garbage?  It's buying up high-tech scrap to extract metals that are key to its developing industries.

 

One good thing about this recession / depression shakeout-there will be far fewer firms fighting and scrambling over those increasingly precious resources-buying us a few extra years of transition time.

 

The lessons here?...Digging minerals out of the ground will no longer automatically confer economic advantage {Canada, Africa, Brazil and China Listen Up}, instead structuring "smart materials" in novel ways will.--Walter Derzko 

 

 

See full story here and image  

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

When will the recession/ depression end? Part 18 Hormones and Boom and Bust Cycles

It turns out that morning testosterone levels in male stock traders have a direct relation to risk aversion and profitability. Susan Pinker, the author of Sexual Paradox, describes the study done by John Coates, that shows a direct relationship between elevated testosterone levels in male traders in the morning and increased profits and risk aversion. That begs the obvious question. If you extend that testosterone effect across a firm, say Leahman Brothers, and  then across the industry, which is primarily male dominated, does it lead to increased industry-wide "irrational exuberance" over time and unwarranted risk-taking, which culminates in a boom and an eventual bust? Women traders are more risk averse and cautious.

The TV commentatoror asked Pinker, if it would have been better if Leahman Brothers were Leahman Sisters. No, said Pinker. Women in senior positions in regulatory agencies would have been a better safeguard, concludes Pinker.

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto,

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

 

Related Recession / Depression Posts

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 17 Recap from the World Economic Forum in Davos

When will the recession end? Part 16 It's all over, well sort of.

When will the recession end? Part 15 Year-end predictions for 2009 starting to come true

When will the recession end? Part 14 Four options for America's race to the bottom

When will the recession end? Part 13 Thirteen economic questions that economists can't answer

When will the recession end? Part 12 Bad times are good times for startups

When will the recession end? Part 11 Bank of Canada optimism

When will the recession end? Part 10, The Conformity Trap or Don't count on your economist for advise

When will the recession end? Part 9 Humor will signal recession /depression bottom

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will this recession end?

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

 

Communication technologies eventually flip and lead to disconnected staccato lifestyle

Technology is not just a double edged sword-paradoxical good and bad effects. It’s far more complex-it’s a quadruple blade or four-edged blade sword.

McLuhan predicted and warned us that every technology or human invented construct has 4 simultaneous effects on culture and society, which strategists and marketers often ignore to their peril. One of them is "reversal or flip". What happens at the extreme when everyone is using technology X? There is a flip or reversal. Cars, which were supposed to be the ultimate transportation devise,  in time have created  gridlock, delays, frustration and pollution, as the system scales up. Sometimes its faster to walk then wait in traffic.

The same subtle "flip" effects are happening in the communication world.

People often ask: what’s the social impact of communication technology X? In fact, that’s the wrong question to ask. They should be asking: what are the social and cultural impacts of the entire family or cluster the technologies that technology X belongs to?  

I’ve coined the term “staccato effect” or “staccato lifestyle”—from the musical definition of staccato

[Music. Cut short crisply; detached: staccato octaves.  or marked by or composed of abrupt, disconnected parts or sounds: staccato applause.]

…because that's what my work day sometimes feels like. 

Communication technologies, which were suppose to help us connect, are starting to have the reverse effect on society. They are disconnecting us by our constant connectedness.--the staccato effect.

We never stay focused long enough on a task, problem or opportunity window to make sense of it, but shift our attention to the next immediate crisis, largely facilitated or accelerated by our range of communication devices. It all started with the photocopy Xerox machine, and has progressed to iphones, email and twitter We are loosing our ability to reflect and our reflection time to make sense of new information….

Think of the last time you had lunch or coffee with someone, who would be constantly interrupting the flow of the conversation by turning to their cell phone calls, email alerts, or twitter text messages.

Our life and job can now be characterizeded as a constantt string of distractions, punctuations or interruptions.

There is an interesting article in the Boston Globe this morning, describing some of the McLuhanesque-like social impacts of communication technology and Information overload and anxiety called: The End of Alone?  At our desk, on the road, or on a remote beach, the world is a tap away. It's so cool. And yet it's not. What we lose with our constant connectedness [Hat tip to Peter Montgomery]. 

 

The author notes:

 

"If you can't remember the last time you were truly unplugged, you've got company".

 

....but later  makes the point about the benefits of solitude:

"Descartes, Newton, Locke, Spinoza, Kant, Nietzsche, Kierkegaard -- they share the distinction of having been some of the greatest thinkers the world has known. They also share this: None of them ever married or had their own families, and most of them spent the bulk of their lives living alone.

In his provocative 1989 book Solitude: A Return to the Self, British writer and psychiatrist Anthony Storr made a persuasive case for the value of deep, uninterrupted alone time. He found it in ample supply in the lives of not just philosophers and physicists, but also some of the greatest poets, novelists, painters, and composers."

but warns that many people now can't deal with being unplugged, (exhibiting classic with-drawl symptoms), which leads me to ask: What would happen to people if the Internet ever crashed for an extended period of time? Could it? Next big solar corona flare? Well remember that they said that the Titanic was unsinkable too.

University of Toronto researcher Rhonda McEwen tracked the communication behavior of students across their freshmen year…[…]… McEwen found in her University of Toronto study that college students are constantly connected to the point of having no concept of a truly unplugged life. There's a time-honored tradition in Canada of "going to the cottage," usually in the summertime, and being blissfully disconnected from the rest of the world. "The participants in my study had real discomfort going to the cottage,"McEwen says. "If there's no cellphone reception, no Internet access, they think, 'What the hell am I doing out there?' "

  

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

Most executives or entrepreneurs that I talk to have elaborate growth strategies  for boom times or  the upturn in a business cycle but only a single approach/tactic in the reverse down leg or bust cycles- CUTS & LAYOFFS. Be they:  executing layoffs, canceling previously signed contracts, killing product lines or leaning on clients to pay bills faster-they form a narrow mindset. Although necessary in many cases, they are not very creative nor original. In fact, this single-minded mono-strategic approach may be disastrous for your firm.

All baseball, football and basketball teams have set plays in their playbook roster (such as the flea flicker or the "Hail Mary" in football, or the bunt and double play in baseball) that they practice  religously for unqiue circumstances in a game situation. The same logic doesn't seem to transfer into business situations for some reason. Funny that CEO's  practice simulations for problem solving or crisis mitigation (ie, WMD,  SARS or Avian Flu) but they don't spend nearly enough "thinking time" for opportunity recognition or opportunity design.

From the jargon in our Opportunity Clinic © ™ workshop, your Recession Playbook requires six sets of strategies and not just one.

1. coping or surviving strategies for the down leg of a recession,
2. coping or surviving strategies for the bottom of a recession, (it may stretch out to be a long one)
3. opportunity-spotting or opportunity-designing strategies for the down leg of a recession,
4. opportunity-spotting or opportunity-designing strategies for the bottom of a recession,
5. opportunity-spotting or opportunity-designing strategies for the up leg of a recovery, and
6. a cluster of "Hail Mary" strategies in case all bets are off and we head into an honest to goodness depression

The above opportunity windows will vary depending on what the recession / depression bottom looks like and the depth and breadth of the economic fall. As I've commented on this blog before, we could be facing a v-shaped bottom, a V-shaped bottom, a W-shaped bottom, a vW-shaped bottom, an L-shaped flat bottom or an extended L-shaped flat bottom. The Opportunity Clinic has over 300 generic Opportunity Scenarios or Windows that executives can use as templates to explore or design new "opportunity spaces" for their business to not just survive but thrive in a recession.

Newsweek supports this notion, writing this week:

 

“In theory, every manager should have the skills needed to guide companies through a recession, the way every baseball player is supposed to know how to bunt or steal a base.” …[but most don't]…"After spending their careers in single-minded pursuit of growth, business leaders have to adjust their mentality,"…[…]… "The new reality is that, barring acquisitions, [the average] company will be smaller two years from now than it is today."

If you are interested in extending your Recession Playbook, call us or email us (by clicking on my name in the signature below) to get more information about the Opportunity Clinic © ™.

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

Related Posts over that past year:

·         Opportunity Recognition in Difficult Times

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn – June 25, 2008, Ontario College of Art Design, Toronto, ON

·         Recession-Proofing your Business-Strategies and Tactics for smoother sailing in turbulent seas

·         Master Class in Opportunity Recognition for entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs> May 30th 2008> University of Toronto

·         Turning Misery into Opportunity

·         Vacuum leaves pullout opportunities;

·         How will baby boomers handle the recession? Zoomers, Doomers, Gloomers, Opportuneurs

·         Recession, Depression and Shortages as Opportunities

·         Restructuring of American Business-A New Business Model?

·         Using New Yorker Cartoons for Opportunity Recognition /Sense-making & Pattern Recognition

·         Text Mining for S&T Scouting, Foresight and Opportunity Recognition

·         The Opportunity Clinic-swapping opportunity scenarios 08-002

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

New Rule ? Go Green Go Slower ; a new “left behind” opportunity window

Every human concept or invention has 4 effects according to Marshall McLuhan. As we switch from plastic bags to bring-your-own cloth bags in grocery stores, we see one of these unintended effects or consequences. It’s what I would classify as a “left behind” combined with a  "process" opportunity window, in the Opportunity Clinic ™ ©  jargon. I'm less of a "trends" fan, althought this does present another "opportunity window" because trends such as a shift from plastic to bring-it-yourself (biy) bags are ovbious to most people and the opportunity space gets quickly crowded out.

My good friend Susan Abbott writes about this unintended consequence of the switch in bags on her blog

What happened when everyone started bringing their own bag: the law of unintended consequences

"I just got a call from a good buddy leaving Loblaws, which recently introduced a save-the-planet charge of 5 cents a bag for those no-goodniks that don't bring their own.

"I'm just leaving the Superstore now," says buddy."Everyone is bringing their own bags.

"And you would not believe how this has slowed down the checkout process. At least 30% slower."

I witnessed this myself at a Wal-Mart. The bags are not all the same size. Some are floppy and need to be held open. One guy was handing the bags over one at a time.

Last week when I commented about the cost of human-delivered services, I wasn't even thinking about this.

Researchers like me know how much customers hate waiting in line. They hate watching inefficiency in line. It used to be just the brown rice brotherhood that took their own bag. Soon everyone will be doing it.  Yikes! "

These are touch-points for the opportunity savvy entrepreneur that can 1) recognize this change event or shift and notice the unintended consequences ..they are usually in your face if you only take the time to look and ask a few strategic questions and 2) find and fill an opportunity space or opportunity window here with your unique solution.

Here's a freebee for someone..... design a cloth bag holder for your store-bought cloth bags, so that the checkout clerk can scan and pack groceries right away into your cloth bag, (but not for bags from the competion's store).

Walter Derzko,Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

Related Posts over that past year:

·         Opportunity Recognition in Difficult Times

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn – June 25, 2008, Ontario College of Art Design, Toronto, ON

·         Recession-Proofing your Business-Strategies and Tactics for smoother sailing in turbulent seas

·         Master Class in Opportunity Recognition for entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs> May 30th 2008> University of Toronto

·         Turning Misery into Opportunity

·         Vacuum leaves pullout opportunities;

·         How will baby boomers handle the recession? Zoomers, Doomers, Gloomers, Opportuneurs

·         Recession, Depression and Shortages as Opportunities

·         Restructuring of American Business-A New Business Model?

·         Using New Yorker Cartoons for Opportunity Recognition /Sense-making & Pattern Recognition

·         Text Mining for S&T Scouting, Foresight and Opportunity Recognition

·         The Opportunity Clinic-swapping opportunity scenarios 08-002

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Opportunity Spotting Lecture at Ryerson University, Toronto tonight--FREE

My colleague, Neil Wolf, Associate  Dean and the former Chair of the Entrepreneurship program at Ryerson University is speaking tonight on the timely topic of Opportunity Spotting; at Ryerson University; Business School;  55 Dundas St West ( between Yonge and Bay St); Toronto; 6pm tonight  

Room 1-003 7^th floor

 

See you there

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for  Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or  Efficiency?

Entreperneurs must make many strategi choices. "Are we going to be innovative or efficient or possibly both vs our competition." is one of them. Firms that simultaneously engage in a high degree of both innovation and efficiency follow an approach that is often referred to in the academic business literature as an ambidextrous strategy.  Surprisingly, relatively few firms are able to balance these two approaches. Internal battles for resources often tip the scales in favor of efficiency over innovation, or vice versa. Management gurus frequently warn that simultaneously pursuing both can set the firm up for mediocre performance, yet the turbulent nature of today’s markets, cut-throat competition and despiration and anxiety from the recession create a renewed need for firms to reconsider this dual approach for longer-term success. Unfortunately, practical insights from empirical studies regarding performance benefits and implementation issues are still scant.  Perhaps this is one reason why few firms are successful in both efficiency and innovation.

 A paper called Innovation and efficiency: It is possible to have it all; this month in Business Horizons (2009) 52, 45—55 discusses the issue of an ambidextrous strategy.

From the Abstract

"In this article, the authors provide evidence—using a cross-industry survey of senior marketing managers in publicly-traded U.S. firms—that firms which successfully employ an ambidextrous strategy outperform those which overemphasize either efficiency or innovation. Furthermore, they highlight marketing’s role as an example of the often overlooked need for successful functional implementation. Finally, they provide useful methods for managers to answer three key questions: (1) Is my firm ambidextrous?; (2) Should my firm be ambidextrous?; and, if so (3) How can my firm become ambidextrous?"

 From the body of the article we find:

"Some management experts are now renewing the call for firms to break with tradition and become ambidextrous—leaders in both efficiency and innovation—to achieve competitive advantage. Two top academic management journals, Academy of Management Journal and Organization Science, recently dedicated special issues to the examination of ambidextrous organizations and how firms manage the balance between efficiency and innovation. Both special issues cite the importance for managers of understanding issues surrounding ambidextrous strategies.

Organizational inertia pushes firms down a particular path, making it harder to adapt to market changes, while short  term thinking crowds out longer-term goals. Home Depot, Dell, Airbus, Kodak, and Ford are just a few examples of companies that have recently found themselves falling behind competitors as a result of overemphasizing one goal over the other."

I wrote to the authors of the article to find out who these ambidextrous firms are and how they are fairing in the recession, compared to their non-ambidextrous competition. When I get a reply, I’ll let Smart Economy blog readers know

Source: Innovation and efficiency: It is possible to have it all; Business Horizons (2009) 52, 45—55 by Matthew Sarkees  and John Hulland

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page