Smart Economy

Segway Inc. Owner Dies In Segway Accident

 

Sad news out of England in the Daily Mail:

The multi-millionaire owner of the Segway company died in a freak accident yesterday when he rode one of the high-tech two-wheel machines off a cliff and into a river.

Former miner Jimi Heselden, 62, plunged into the River Wharfe while riding around his West Yorkshire estate in Boston Spa on a rugged country version of the Segway.

He bought the firm last December and was using one of the machines - which use gyroscopes to remain upright and are controlled by the direction in which the rider leans - to inspect the grounds of his property.

see more here

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1315518/Segway-tycoon-Jimi-Heselden-dies-cliff-plunge-scooters.html

Smart gadgets may one day anticipate our needs

July 9, 2010 By Steve Johnson

 

Don't be surprised if one day your refrigerator nags you to lose weight, your phone blocks calls it figures you're too stressed to handle, and your wisecracking car entertains you with pun-filled one liners. Within a decade or two, researchers at Silicon Valley companies and elsewhere predict, consumer gadgets will be
functioning like hyper-attentive butlers, anticipating and fulfilling peoples' needs without having to be told. Life would not only be more convenient, it might even last longer: Devices could monitor people's health and step in when needed to help them get better.

"I think it's inevitable," said Michael Freed, an artificial intelligence specialist and program director at Menlo Park, Calif., think tank SRI International, which has been studying the concept for the military. Noting that some of these gadgets already are being developed, he added, "I expect we'll see more soon -- a trickle and then a flood.''

The technology propelling this new generation of personal assistants is a combination of sophisticated sensors and carefully tailored computer software. As envisioned, the machines would adjust their own actions to the preferences and needs of an individual, by analyzing data on the person's past actions and monitoring current behavior with cameras, audio recorders, and other sensors.

Santa Clara, Calif., chipmaker Intel, which has been studying the technology for several years, believes that one day soon the gadgets will have the ability to read their owner's emotions.

While some experts have proposed that face and voice recognition gear be used to detect a person's disposition, Intel has been experimenting with heart monitors and galvanic skin-response sensors. A study it did last year envisioned the gadgets detecting mood swings "while people are driving, singing, chatting with friends, attending a boring meeting and even while going to the dentist."

Others expect household appliances eventually will be designed with human-like personalities. In a study this year that was partly financed by Nissan, researchers at Japan's Hokkaido University experimented with cheery-sounding devices that they imagined one day could serve as "artificial companions for elderly and lonely people" or as pun-spouting car navigation equipment that could "entertain drivers by talking and
possibly by joking." Although some gadgets already make assumptions about what people want, such as word processing software that automatically corrects grammar, the devices contemplated by Intel, HP and other companies would be capable of much more sophisticated judgments about a broader array of human needs. That's a complex task -- so difficult that some experts are skeptical the technology will be ready in the near future.

"My guess is that we will get there in time, but it's a little further off than the most ambitious nnouncements from a lot of companies have indicated," said Bob Sloan, who heads the computer science department at the University of Illinois at Chicago. "There are a lot of hard problems to solve."

But other experts say the idea recently has become more practical because of the proliferation of computerized devices, from universal remote controls, MP3 players, air conditioning equipment and microwave ovens to security systems, lawn-sprinkler controllers, exercise equipment and toys. Because many of these devices come with cameras, global positioning systems and other sensors to monitor what's around them, these experts say, it's not hard to imagine them gathering enough data about people to
act autonomously on their behalf, assuming the individuals let the gizmos have that authority.

One product that already claims to partly think for its owner is a "personal assistant" app for the iPhone and iPod developed by Siri, a San Jose company Apple bought in April.

Besides being able to recommend a good play, book a taxi and offer helpful reminders, the app -- which responds to verbal queries -- "adapts to your preferences over time," Siri claims. For example, ask it about a good place to eat nearby and it might suggest a certain type of restaurant you have picked before, a company spokesman said. He added that the app also can learn to recognize a person's voice and speaking style, which might make it easier for it to understand what the person is saying on a noisy street. Other
products could be on the way soon, said Diane Cook, a researcher at Washington State University, which has an experimental smart house filled with such devices.

"We have companies large and small and in-between visiting us monthly -- IBM, Bosch, Qualcomm -- all wanting to commercialize it, all trying to decide what that first step is, that first niche," she said.

Stanford University operates a similar research lab. When it hosted a workshop on the technology three weeks ago, it attracted interest from Facebook, Google, Honda, Intel, Microsoft, Nokia, Panasonic, Sony and Hewlett-Packard, according to the lab's website.

Hamid Aghajan, who supervises the lab, foresees gadgets knowing enough about their human housemates to select appropriate lighting and music when the people are eating or reading, coaching them on their speaking skills during meetings and connecting them via social networking sites with people the gadgets determine share their interests.

Peter Harwell, a senior researcher at HP, believes such devices could be built into new homes within a decade or so, though he cautions they must operate "in a way that doesn't annoy the user."

One initial application of the technology is expected to be monitoring the elderly in their homes.

Oregon Health & Science University researchers say they have detected the onset of dementia in older people by using smart pill containers that record whether the person takes their medicine and motion sensors that can tell if their walking and dressing slowed, potential early signs of the disease.

Some experts believe it will be possible for a refrigerator with the right sensors to keep track of how much a person eats and to urge them verbally to adjust their calorie intake. And if the person gets seriously sick, these experts say, other gadgets might be able to detect the illness and alert authorities.

Even the military is interested. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency hopes to develop computerized assistants for commanders that "can reason, learn from experience, be told what to do, explain what they are doing, reflect on their experience and respond robustly to surprise."

All this raises concerns for Eric Goldman, who directs Santa Clara University's High Tech Law Institute. One issue is how to protect the privacy of the information the gadgets accumulate on people. "The more data we gather the more the government is going to want to get its paws on it," he said, adding that lawyers in court cases may try to obtain it, too. There also is no guarantee such a device "will do exactly what we want it to," he warned. "There is always the possibility that the smart agent will go rogue."

But others consider the potential benefits worth pursuing. That includes using the technology to rescue people from uncomfortable situations.

If a person gets a call from someone who stresses them out, according to Intel officials, their savvy phone might automatically switch the caller into a voice message. Another intriguing possibility could arise if the phone notices its owner is extremely tense in a meeting, added Lama Nachman, a researcher at the chipmaker. In that case, it might respond with what she termed an "exit phone call," a bogus ring that gives the person a convenient excuse to leave.


(c) 2010, San Jose Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.). Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune
Information Services.

Technology, Control, Happiness and Depression: Is technology controlling you and your life or vise a versa?

(Graphic from New Scientist)  Just sit back and think for a moment: how long has it been since you read your last email? Scanned your last last Twitter?  Dispatched you previous text message? Updated Facebook or Linked In?

With the annual homage to the  Mecca of consumer materialism -the consumer electronics show  (CES) in  Vegas this month ,it may be appropriate to ask the bigger social question

Is technology controlling you and your life or vise a versa?  

Yair Amichai-Hamburger offers  a provocative opinion piece on this month’s issue of New Scientist (Dec 27, 2009 volume 2739) titled “Shiny unhappy People” in the print version or “Free yourself from oppression by technology.” In  the online version

From his Tetrad model, Marshall McLuhan reminds us that technology has four simultaneous impacts on society...and in this case, here's my take on the social impacts and secondary consequences of communication technologies

 

1)Something gets enhanced?  (materialism, consumption, depression, a stecato culture of information, continuous interruption, a middle class that's under the influence of mass cultural and perpetual distraction, fragmentation of reactive efforts, sense of being overwhelmed and not knowing were to turn, public passivity, digital version of divide to conquer etc )

2) something gets obsolesced or lost?  (social relationships, happiness, tenacity & longevity of thought, thoroughness,  propensity for societal action, coordinated social response)

3) something gets brought back or retrieved? (digital-slavery, time enslavement ) and

4) something gets flipped or reversed?  (from ease of communication to communication stress &Info overload or what I call pauperization of communication & information, debasted or watered-down wisdom)

 

Amichai-Hamburger touches on  all 4 of these social impacts- enhancement, retrieval, obsolescence, and reversal.

 

Here’s a recap and summary of his key points

• "Are we being served by these technological wonders or have we become enslaved by them?"
• We living in an"age of melancholy" coined by psychologist Daniel Goleman to describe our era. "People today experience more depression than previous generations, despite the technological wonders that help us every day. It might be because of them."
• "Our lifestyles are increasingly driven by technology. Phones, computers and the internet pervade our days. There is a constant, nagging need to check for texts and email, to update Facebook, MySpace and LinkedIn profiles, to acquire the latest notebook or 3G cellphone. "
• "For many of us it is becoming increasingly difficult to control the impulse to check our inbox yet again or see whether the headlines have changed since we last looked. [...] In many homes, the computer has become the centre of attention; it is the medium through which we work and play."
• "How did this arise, and what is it doing to us? In this era of mass consumption, we are surrounded by advertising that urges us to find fulfillment through the acquisition of material goods. As a result, adults and children increasingly believe that in order to belong and feel good about themselves, they must own the latest model or gadget."
• "Yet research has shown that people who place a high value on material goals are unhappier than those who are less materialistic. Materialism is also associated with lower self-esteem, greater narcissism, greater tendency to compare oneself unfavorably with other people, less empathy and more conflict in relationships."
• "People who place a high value on material goals are unhappier than those who are less materialistic "--N.B. this is supported by other studies that show consumers value "experiential events" over "material goods"--Walter Derzko
• "Our culture also constantly reminds us that time is money. This implies a need for total efficiency, which is why we are allowing laptop computers and mobile phones to blur the separation between work and home. As one unhappy human-resource manager in a high-tech company put it: "They gave me a mobile phone so they can own me 24 hours a day, and a portable computer, so my office is now with me all the time - I cannot break out of this pressure." Sound familiar?"
• "Psychologists generally believe that the lack of a clear separation between work and home significantly damages our relationships with loved ones. It also predisposes us to focus on the here and now at the expense of long-term goals."
• "By imposing these twin pressures, modern society is in danger of swapping standard of living for quality of life. We need ways to help recover those increasingly large parts of our lives that we have ceded to technology, to regain mastery over technology and learn to use it in a healthy and positive way."
• Amichai-Hamburger offers a 4 point  prescription to reagin self-control based on  self-determination theory, developed by psychologists Edward Deci and Richard Ryan of the University of Rochester in New York state. It identifies three vital elements of healthy personal development and functioning that  can be used to recalibrate our relationship with technology. Amichai-Hamburger  thenadds a 4th point below.

1) "The first is autonomy - the feeling that our activities are self-chosen and self-endorsed. When we feel in control, we are able to organize our priorities and place effective boundaries around them. But when we feel we have insufficient control, it leaves us vulnerable to our impulses and causes us to abdicate decisions to other people. It is easy to see how technology undermines autonomy, but also how to regain it. This may be as simple as switching off mobile phones during meals and family time, setting aside specific times to answer emails, and being available only when we choose to be."

2) "We also need a sense of competence, a belief that our actions are effective. In this respect our relationship with technology is complex, because many of us feel competent when we deal with an email, when we have the newest BlackBerry, or because 50 people enjoyed the holiday snaps we posted on Facebook. "

3) "Relatedness:our need to feel close to other people. Technology is a threat to this. Devices like the iPod can be used to create a bubble that disconnects us from normal human interactions, and while some virtual relationships may be truly meaningful, in many cases they come at the expense of real-world connections. Psychologists have found that the pivotal difference between happy and unhappy people is the presence or absence of rich and satisfying social relationships. Spending meaningful time with friends, family and partners is necessary for happiness."

Many North American's have lost this, which is why seemingly poorer nations tend to be happier --Walter Derzko.

4) "Critical thinking. In today's world, where we are potentially available 24/7 to absorb messages from well-honed advertisements, it is vital that we know how to analyze and evaluate their validity - and to neutralize them where necessary."

Autonomy, competence, relatedness and critical thinking are the best ways to establish a balanced approach to technology, and so enhance our well-being.

Intersting question to ponder...will Eastern & Asian cultures (India, China etc) turn to North American ideals of materialism & consumption to find fullfillment in life as they develop economically or to something else?--Walter Derzko

N.B Yair Amichai-Hamburger is director of the Research Center for Internet Psychology at the Sammy Ofer School of Communications, the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel.

Full story here

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

 

Author of the soon-to-be published book- Opportunity 45 Scenarios to Drive Your Business in Challenging Times, published by J. Wiley and Sons

ISBN13: 978-0-470-73761-3

ISBN10: 0-470-73761-1

When will the recession / depression end? Part 20 The Dog that Didn't Bark; Economists say don't pay attention to us

Why should we be listening to economists, when so few of them saw this whole mess coming? The Canadian CBC TV Sunday Morning program put that question to two top economists - Dean Baker, of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, and James K. Galbraith of the University of Texas, son of the famed Canadian economist John Kenneth Galbraith - and ask: whose predictions should we believe now?

These were two of the small group of "minortity" economists, warning of the coming crash, who I have been tracking since the early 2000's ...[BTW, I track "outliers" on all the emerging issues that interest me...ie. I started warning clients about the imminant US  banking system collapse and housing collapse in 2006.]

Why did so few economists see this economic crisis coming? Asks the CBC TV reporter, or what I call the  Dog that Didn’t Bark question.

 

 

Here’s a transcript of what James K Galbraith said:

“…Well I think the  economics profession over that last few decades has kind of closed in on itself, it ceased to discuss history in a serious way and it basically excommunicated that relatively small number  of people, who worked on problems of financial crisis and financial instability.

So, there was no dialogue going on, the prospect was not being raised, the profession was busy congratulating itself on having solving the economic problems, on having basically come up with the right formulas for stable expansion, for the control of inflation and they had completely forgotten that the capitalist system has enormous vulnerabilities that come from of the financial sphere, and in addition to that, they were just unequipped to deal with the catastrophic malpractice that was coming from the financial sector over the last five years, they didn’t have the tools, they weren’t studying it, they were caught blind sided by it.”…[…]….Until the crisis actually broke, nobody was paying attention to us."

Dean Baker replies:

"…I was actually tipped off by Alan Greenspan, back in 2002. He was testifying before Congress and he said there was no problem, no bubble in the housing market. And I was reading his testimony and everything he said did not make any sense. He was giving explanations to why there was this sudden rise in house prices. The basic story is that we have a hundred year long history 1895-1995 where nation-wide at least, house prices had just kept pace with the overall  rate of inflation. In other words, House prices has risen at roughly the same rate as the average  other goods, car prices, clothes, gas, whatever it  might be. Suddenly beginning  in the mid 90’s, house prices began to substantially outpace the rate of inflation and by 2002 they had outpaced the rate of inflation by about  30%. And there was no explanation for it that made any sense, based on fundamentals. So to my mind, when you see a hundred year long trend broken, and there is no explanation,  that’s based on fundamentals, it was sort of crying out: Bubble! Bubble ! Bubble!  And I sort of had bubble on my mind because we had just gotten through the stock bubble, and stock crash. We had two explanations. One -this is being driven by something in the fundamentals that no one could identify or  two --the stock bubble had fed over into the housing bubble as was the case in Japan. So that was seemed to be a pretty easy call to me."

Listen to the full interview..a real eye-opener…

 

And what are most of the mainstream economists saying now..don't worry, it will all be over soon...depending on how you take that....that's what I'm worried about--Walter Derzko.

 

Walter Derzko

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related Recession / Depression Posts

When will the recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

When will the recession/ depression end? Part 18 Hormones and Boom and Bust Cycles

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 17 Recap from the World Economic Forum in Davos

When will the recession end? Part 16 It's all over, well sort of.

When will the recession end? Part 15 Year-end predictions for 2009 starting to come true

When will the recession end? Part 14 Four options for America's race to the bottom

When will the recession end? Part 13 Thirteen economic questions that economists can't answer

When will the recession end? Part 12 Bad times are good times for startups

When will the recession end? Part 11 Bank of Canada optimism

When will the recession end? Part 10, The Conformity Trap or Don't count on your economist for advise

When will the recession end? Part 9 Humor will signal recession /depression bottom

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will this recession end?

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Communication technologies eventually flip and lead to disconnected staccato lifestyle

Technology is not just a double edged sword-paradoxical good and bad effects. It’s far more complex-it’s a quadruple blade or four-edged blade sword.

McLuhan predicted and warned us that every technology or human invented construct has 4 simultaneous effects on culture and society, which strategists and marketers often ignore to their peril. One of them is "reversal or flip". What happens at the extreme when everyone is using technology X? There is a flip or reversal. Cars, which were supposed to be the ultimate transportation devise,  in time have created  gridlock, delays, frustration and pollution, as the system scales up. Sometimes its faster to walk then wait in traffic.

The same subtle "flip" effects are happening in the communication world.

People often ask: what’s the social impact of communication technology X? In fact, that’s the wrong question to ask. They should be asking: what are the social and cultural impacts of the entire family or cluster the technologies that technology X belongs to?  

I’ve coined the term “staccato effect” or “staccato lifestyle”—from the musical definition of staccato

[Music. Cut short crisply; detached: staccato octaves.  or marked by or composed of abrupt, disconnected parts or sounds: staccato applause.]

…because that's what my work day sometimes feels like. 

Communication technologies, which were suppose to help us connect, are starting to have the reverse effect on society. They are disconnecting us by our constant connectedness.--the staccato effect.

We never stay focused long enough on a task, problem or opportunity window to make sense of it, but shift our attention to the next immediate crisis, largely facilitated or accelerated by our range of communication devices. It all started with the photocopy Xerox machine, and has progressed to iphones, email and twitter We are loosing our ability to reflect and our reflection time to make sense of new information….

Think of the last time you had lunch or coffee with someone, who would be constantly interrupting the flow of the conversation by turning to their cell phone calls, email alerts, or twitter text messages.

Our life and job can now be characterizeded as a constantt string of distractions, punctuations or interruptions.

There is an interesting article in the Boston Globe this morning, describing some of the McLuhanesque-like social impacts of communication technology and Information overload and anxiety called: The End of Alone?  At our desk, on the road, or on a remote beach, the world is a tap away. It's so cool. And yet it's not. What we lose with our constant connectedness [Hat tip to Peter Montgomery]. 

 

The author notes:

 

"If you can't remember the last time you were truly unplugged, you've got company".

 

....but later  makes the point about the benefits of solitude:

"Descartes, Newton, Locke, Spinoza, Kant, Nietzsche, Kierkegaard -- they share the distinction of having been some of the greatest thinkers the world has known. They also share this: None of them ever married or had their own families, and most of them spent the bulk of their lives living alone.

In his provocative 1989 book Solitude: A Return to the Self, British writer and psychiatrist Anthony Storr made a persuasive case for the value of deep, uninterrupted alone time. He found it in ample supply in the lives of not just philosophers and physicists, but also some of the greatest poets, novelists, painters, and composers."

but warns that many people now can't deal with being unplugged, (exhibiting classic with-drawl symptoms), which leads me to ask: What would happen to people if the Internet ever crashed for an extended period of time? Could it? Next big solar corona flare? Well remember that they said that the Titanic was unsinkable too.

University of Toronto researcher Rhonda McEwen tracked the communication behavior of students across their freshmen year…[…]… McEwen found in her University of Toronto study that college students are constantly connected to the point of having no concept of a truly unplugged life. There's a time-honored tradition in Canada of "going to the cottage," usually in the summertime, and being blissfully disconnected from the rest of the world. "The participants in my study had real discomfort going to the cottage,"McEwen says. "If there's no cellphone reception, no Internet access, they think, 'What the hell am I doing out there?' "

  

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The recession is a perfect time to  launch a new business or new product, especially what I call Category Killer Innovation, or what Clayton Christenson calls a "Disruptive Technology." The Category Killer Opportunity window is not a single opportunity space or event but a cluster of smaller fortuitous opportunities that bundle together (such as the design enhancement opportunity, a production challenge opportunity, the value chain opportunity, the supply chain challenge opportunity window and many others) to form a "super opportunity space" or in this case a Category Killer Innovation Opportunity Window. If history is any indication, we will see a flood of distruptive technology hitting the market between now and 2014.

A good example is the Starbury sneaker, who went up against the big boys-NIKE, Adidas, Puma and New Balance to produce a $14.95 runner that is as good as the $149-$300 equivalent basketball shoe, but at an order of magnitude price drop. It will be interesting to see how low cost Starbury Sneakers fare against NIKE in a recession

According to Wikipedia:

"Starbury, Inc. is an American brand of sneakers and clothing endorsed by NBA players Stephon Marbury and Ben Wallace, and marketed by Steve and Barry's. The line was launched in September 2006, as a pair of $14.99 basketball shoes to compete with higher priced products endorsed by celebrity athletes. Stephon Marbury and retail clothing chain Steve & Barry's claim that the products are of the same level of quality as more expensive alternatives."

Now India is about to unveil tomorrow a prototype of a $10 laptop (which actually costs $20 to produce.) It will be subsidized by the Indian Education Ministry, so that eventually every school child in India will be able to afford a laptop and access to the Internet. This is a counter-offer to the MIT Negroponte project which was proposing a $100 laptop per child for India, but the Indian government thought that they could do one better. The $10 laptop will come with WiFi, 2GB of memory, Ethernet and expandable memory capability and consumer just 2 watts of power. There are still many unanswered questions, such as can they find the supply chain to manufacture the laptop at that low cost and many others. How will they protect themselves from reverse engineering and IP theft and the grey market?

But it proves the point that every incumbent CEO, Manager and entrepreneur should be always looking behind their back for the next Category Killer Innovation to sneak up on them

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Other Opportunity Clinic posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

Realted posts over that past year:

·         Opportunity Recognition in Difficult Times

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn

·         Recession - Proofing your Business - Spotting & Designing Opportunities in a Downturn – June 25, 2008, Ontario College of Art Design, Toronto, ON

·         Recession-Proofing your Business-Strategies and Tactics for smoother sailing in turbulent seas

·         Master Class in Opportunity Recognition for entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs> May 30th 2008> University of Toronto

·         Turning Misery into Opportunity

·         Vacuum leaves pullout opportunities;

·         How will baby boomers handle the recession? Zoomers, Doomers, Gloomers, Opportuneurs

·         Recession, Depression and Shortages as Opportunities

·         Restructuring of American Business-A New Business Model?

·         Using New Yorker Cartoons for Opportunity Recognition /Sense-making & Pattern Recognition

·         Text Mining for S&T Scouting, Foresight and Opportunity Recognition

·         The Opportunity Clinic-swapping opportunity scenarios 08-002

Walter Derzko

 

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

  There’s an old saying…”the best time to start a new business is the day after the recession ends.” The $64K  question is not when will the recession end but what will the recovery look like? Will it be V-shaped, U-shaped, W-shaped, v-W-shaped,  J-shaped, L-shaped or extended L-shaped? Which of these seven scenarios will play out?  UPDATE: see cartoon on the right from March 2009

To anticipate this, we have to look at what tools do managers and entrepreneurs have to help them predict, track and measure where they and the economy are heading?

 

I dusted off some old notes, slides  and workshop handout materials from just after post 9/11 as the economy topped out and in hindsight, was headed into a recession, triggered by the terrorist attacks on New York city and Washington. The materials were from a set of  experimental workshops that I designed for Andrew Maxwell, who at the time was at the incubator / accelerator at  the Innovations Foundation at the University of Toronto, when they were still located on 243 College Street, before moving into the new MaRS facility.

One workshop was on Designing Winning Business Models and the second was called 12 Tools and Techniques for Surviving Thriving and Managing in a Volatile and Turbulent Business Climate.

Could some of these same  principles and lessons learned from these workshops apply to today’s recessionary / depressionary climate? Most certainly!!

 

Designing a robust and adaptive business model could determine if you dive, merely survive or thrive in a recession.

Some of the key points and questions from the Designing Winning Business Models workshop include the following points:

• What were/are  the traditional business models/ revenue models in my industry and what can I learn from them?

• What are the prevailing business models/ revenue models in my industry today?

• What can I learn from mapping my current business landscape?

• What’s my current business model look like and what are all the components?

• What are the assumptions (tacit and explicit) behind my current business model and are they still valid? robust under changing conditions? various recovery scenarios ?  (V-shaped, U-shaped, W-shaped, v-W-shaped,  J-shaped, L-shaped or extended L-shaped? )

• What are the changing consumer or business values, attitudes and behaviors and are they reflected or aligned with my current business model

• What changes, trends, driving factors and issues are forcing me to rethink my current business model?

• How do I surface assumptions about the current and near-future business climate?

• What’s broken in my existing business model and how do I mitigate the faults and defects?

• How do I design a new viable system using scenario planning, systems dynamics and viable systems modeling?

• How do I model potential major discontinuities, wild cards, disruptions into my revenue model and business model?

• What were the lessons learned from the dot.com bubble, e-commerce failures and the collapse of the “green tech” and alternative energy markets? How do I mitigate that in the future from new emerging technologies.

• What cognitive thinking skills do I need to deploy to come up with novel and difficult to copy concepts for a brilliant new business model?

Tomorrow we’ll look at the 12 predictive  tools that should be in your managerial or entrepreneurial toolkit to help you predict and design opportunity windows for both the downward leg of the recession and the upward leg of the recovery.

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

 

Related posts:

 

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

When will this recession end?

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

 

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

 

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

 

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Sporting equipment intellivating by getting a smarter grip

 

Today's sporting gear is dumb and benign.

 

But sports equipment is about to get a lot smarter soon --not just from a style point of view but literally.

 

The sports industry (along with porn) has always been a bellwether sector for new technology applications. First it was new  composite materials (graphite) and then nanotechnology (carbon nanotubes), Now hand-held  sporting gear is about to intellivate* (a word I coined that’s a combination of intelligence +elevate) or become “dynamic or responsive”

Apple has patented a process of wrapping electronic touch sensitive (hepatic) material around sports gear, from hockey sticks, tennis rackets and golf clubs, to baseball bats and even darts. Think of it as a smart grip, where the user’s grip (correct or incorrect) can be monitored for training and improving the consistency of shots or hits.

 

Consequences? Adapting an old saying, "Smart practise leads to perfection sooner." Armchair athletes, weekend warriors  and professionals alike will improve their proficiency in sports a lot quicker and earlier in age, increasing the talent pool for professional sports clubs to choose from.

 

ETA: 2010-2013

 

 

In the future footballs, baseballs, hockey pucks and golf balls may be next on the list of objects that will be able to give you direct feedback

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

IBM endorses smart technology and a smarter planet

A while back when I was at the Idea Lab at the Design Exchange, I remember sitting over a coffee and exploring a thought exercise with some clients.

The question under debate was: What are  the generic elements or activities that would accelerate any new technology platform, (such as smart technologies) and overcome the initial market interia. Simply put, Is there a generic technology evolution matrix?

We came up with over 25 items. (see related Post-Do you know how to spot opportunities?)

One was having cartoonists make fun of your technology ( No, smart technologies aren't on Dilbert's radar screen yet, but any day now I hope)  Another key event would be to have some influential CEO highlight the benefits of your technology in a milestone keynote speech (act as a complimentor-in business strategy terms. )

Well for smart technologies, that breakthrough event may have happened this month on November 6^th, when IBM’s CEO, Sam Palmisano, outlined a new agenda for building a smarter planet - during a speech at the Council on Foreign Relation. (hat tip to Adam Christensen at IBM HQ)

 

 

From IBM's blog:

"In the speech, he outlines a number of the challenges faced today by people, governments, businesses and organizations. A lack of clean water for a fifth of the world’s population. Energy systems that waste more energy than they produce. Traffic in our cities that clogs roads and chokes economic growth. 

Clearly there are no simple solutions for these problems.

Technology can play a big role in helping find answers to these problems. While the Internet currently connects more than a billion people, in just a few years, it will connect more than a trillion objects. Everything from cell phones, cars, roads, buildings, and even objects in nature itself, will have embedded technology and be connected to one another, enabling tremendous advances in how we understand how the world works and make smarter decisions to make it work better. 

But technology is just part of the solution. Without the people, policies and culture to inspire and execute the change, nothing ultimately gets done."

From Sam’s speech:

[...]   These collective realizations have reminded us that we are all now connected—economically, technically and socially. But we're also learning that being connected is not sufficient. Yes, the world continues to get "flatter." And yes, it continues to get smaller and more interconnected. But something is happening that holds even greater potential. In a word, our planet is becoming smarter.

This isn't just a metaphor.I mean infusing intelligence into the way the world literally works—the systems and processes that enable physical goods to be developed, manufactured, bought and sold… services to be delivered… everything from people and money to oil, water and electrons to move… and billions of people to work and live.

 What's making this possible?

• First, our world is becoming instrumented: The transistor, invented 60 years ago, is the basic building block of the digital age. Now, consider a world in which there are a billion transistors per human, each one costing one ten-millionth of a cent. We'll have that by 2010. There will likely be 4 billion mobile phone subscribers by the end of this year… and 30 billion Radio Frequency Identification tags produced globally within two years. Sensors are being embedded across entire ecosystems—supply-chains, healthcare networks, cities… even natural systems like rivers.
• Second, our world is becoming interconnected: Very soon there will be 2 billion people on the Internet. But in an instrumented world, systems and objects can now "speak" to one another, too. Think about the prospect of a trillion connected and intelligent things—cars, appliances, cameras, roadways, pipelines… even pharmaceuticals and livestock. The amount of information produced by the interaction of all those things will be unprecedented.
• Third, all things are becoming intelligent: New computing models can handle the proliferation of end-user devices, sensors and actuators and connect them with back-end systems. Combined with advanced analytics, those supercomputers can turn mountains of data into intelligence that can be translated into action, making our systems, processes and infrastructures more efficient, more productive and responsive—in a word, smarter.

What this means is that the digital and physical infrastructures of the world are converging. Computational power is being put into things we wouldn't recognize as computers. Indeed, almost anything—any person, any object, any process or any service, for any organization, large or small—can become digitally aware and networked.

With so much technology and networking abundantly available at such low cost, what wouldn't you enhance? What service wouldn't you provide a customer, citizen, student or patient? What wouldn't you connect? What information wouldn't you mine for insight?

The answer is, you or your competitor—another company, or another city or nation—will do all of that. You will do it because you can—the technology is available and affordable.

But there is another reason we will make our companies, institutions and industries smarter. Because we must. Not just at moments of widespread shock, but integrated into our day-to-day operations. These mundane processes of business, government and life—which are ultimately the source of those "surprising" crises—are not smart enough to be sustainable.

[...]

Leaders will need to hone their collaboration skills, because we will need leadership that pulls across systems. We will need to bring together stakeholders and experts from across business, government and academia, and all of them will need to move outside their traditional comfort zones.

I’m struck by the questions this raises. What investments need to be made by both public and private institutions? What policy issues need to be debated and resolved? What role can individual citizens and employees play in helping bring about meaningful change?

I’m also struck by the potential opportunities inherent in finding solutions to these problems. 

see full text of Sam Palmisano's speech

Walter Derzko

 

From IBM's blog:

"In the speech, he outlines a number of the challenges faced today by people, governments, businesses and organizations. A lack of clean water for a fifth of the world’s population. Energy systems that waste more energy than they produce. Traffic in our cities that clogs roads and chokes economic growth. 

Clearly there are no simple solutions for these problems.

Technology can play a big role in helping find answers to these problems. While the Internet currently connects more than a billion people, in just a few years, it will connect more than a trillion objects. Everything from cell phones, cars, roads, buildings, and even objects in nature itself, will have embedded technology and be connected to one another, enabling tremendous advances in how we understand how the world works and make smarter decisions to make it work better. 

But technology is just part of the solution. Without the people, policies and culture to inspire and execute the change, nothing ultimately gets done."

From Sam’s speech:

[...]   These collective realizations have reminded us that we are all now connected—economically, technically and socially. But we're also learning that being connected is not sufficient. Yes, the world continues to get "flatter." And yes, it continues to get smaller and more interconnected. But something is happening that holds even greater potential. In a word, our planet is becoming smarter.

This isn't just a metaphor.I mean infusing intelligence into the way the world literally works—the systems and processes that enable physical goods to be developed, manufactured, bought and sold… services to be delivered… everything from people and money to oil, water and electrons to move… and billions of people to work and live.

 What's making this possible?

• First, our world is becoming instrumented: The transistor, invented 60 years ago, is the basic building block of the digital age. Now, consider a world in which there are a billion transistors per human, each one costing one ten-millionth of a cent. We'll have that by 2010. There will likely be 4 billion mobile phone subscribers by the end of this year… and 30 billion Radio Frequency Identification tags produced globally within two years. Sensors are being embedded across entire ecosystems—supply-chains, healthcare networks, cities… even natural systems like rivers.
• Second, our world is becoming interconnected: Very soon there will be 2 billion people on the Internet. But in an instrumented world, systems and objects can now "speak" to one another, too. Think about the prospect of a trillion connected and intelligent things—cars, appliances, cameras, roadways, pipelines… even pharmaceuticals and livestock. The amount of information produced by the interaction of all those things will be unprecedented.
• Third, all things are becoming intelligent: New computing models can handle the proliferation of end-user devices, sensors and actuators and connect them with back-end systems. Combined with advanced analytics, those supercomputers can turn mountains of data into intelligence that can be translated into action, making our systems, processes and infrastructures more efficient, more productive and responsive—in a word, smarter.

What this means is that the digital and physical infrastructures of the world are converging. Computational power is being put into things we wouldn't recognize as computers. Indeed, almost anything—any person, any object, any process or any service, for any organization, large or small—can become digitally aware and networked.

With so much technology and networking abundantly available at such low cost, what wouldn't you enhance? What service wouldn't you provide a customer, citizen, student or patient? What wouldn't you connect? What information wouldn't you mine for insight?

The answer is, you or your competitor—another company, or another city or nation—will do all of that. You will do it because you can—the technology is available and affordable.

But there is another reason we will make our companies, institutions and industries smarter. Because we must. Not just at moments of widespread shock, but integrated into our day-to-day operations. These mundane processes of business, government and life—which are ultimately the source of those "surprising" crises—are not smart enough to be sustainable.

[...]

Leaders will need to hone their collaboration skills, because we will need leadership that pulls across systems. We will need to bring together stakeholders and experts from across business, government and academia, and all of them will need to move outside their traditional comfort zones.

I’m struck by the questions this raises. What investments need to be made by both public and private institutions? What policy issues need to be debated and resolved? What role can individual citizens and employees play in helping bring about meaningful change?

I’m also struck by the potential opportunities inherent in finding solutions to these problems. 

see full text of Sam Palmisano's speech

Walter Derzko

New Yorker cartoonist spots smart technology

I've been talking about smart technology and the smart economy since 1998, but I may have been a little ahead of the curve. Cartoonists usually have a good sense of what issues, trends  and fads are coming into fashion.

This week's New Yorker magazine has an interesting cartoon. Will we see more?