Smart Economy

Baltics and Ukraine targets again for Russian Hackers

The Unian news service in Ukraine is reporting another potential hacker attack:

"Following on from last year’s massive cyber attack on Estonia’s computer systems when Russian hackers, purportedly funded by the FSB (the modern equivalent of the KGB), brought the country’s computer systems to its knees in response to the removal of Soviet statues and war memorials, it looks as if those same hackers with the same funding are about to launch a bigger attack covering all the Baltic countries, and this time it will extend to Ukraine, according to Computer Crime Research Center.

Once again, appeals in Russian Internet forums calling for all Russian hackers to unite and launch a large-scale attack on the computer networks of government institutions in Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are on the increase, and now Ukraine is being included as a necessary target.

Those making the appeals, which many speculate are coming from the FSB again, state that Russian hackers are dissatisfied with “the way Russian-speakers are treated in Baltic countries,” and with the ban on the use of Soviet symbols.

Ukraine, however, is being targeted for slightly different reasons, and the appeals on Internet forums are citing the country as a target due to its NATO aspirations.
[ . . ]

Makes me wonder who is next ? --Baltic Camadian and Ukrainian Canadian organizations are automatically at risk too. We last saw this during and after the Orange Revolution when various Canadian organizations, who supported the democratic process in Ukraine came under hacker attack. I'd be making computer backups on a regular basis--Walter Derzko

Full story here

© 2005-2008 Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant, Keynote Speaker and Lecturer on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

Smart Sustainability Showcase for Toronto and Canada

From: Walter Derzko

Sent: Friday, July 11, 2008 12:19 AM

To: undisclosed list

Subject: re Smart Sustainability ShowCase for Toronto and Canada.

Importance: High

Dear Colleagues

I’d like to plant an idea with you – after speaking with a number of designers and vendors, I’m exploring the idea for a sustainability showcase that would feature theme based exhibits with smart technologies from Canadian and international sources-the best from Ontario, nationally and from around the world.

The launch would be 2010, The timing for this seems right.  The target audience would be Canadian business, consumers and school children

I’m writing a book on smart technologies and this would be a logical extension of the concept.

Two years ago I talked to Samantha Sannella and Poala Polletto at the Design Exchange (DX) in Toronto and with several people at the Ont Science Center.  Both groups expressed interest but said that we would need to find sponsors for the project

My business model for this would be three pronged -vendor based revenue, corporate based sponsor revenue and municipality based sponsorship ie city of Toronto or Mississauga and possibly the province of Ontario who may wish to promote sustainable manufacturing.

This concept would be a Canadian, in fact a North American first.

I have a list of 150 potential vendors, and designers from around the world who are working on smart technologies that we can start to approach.

The exhibits would be theme based, --the sustainable kitchen, the sustainable office, the sustainable retail shelf, the sustainable workspace, the sustainable community, the sustainable city etc and would be updated with new technologies every 3-5 years and have a 1-5 year forward focus. (what's commercially available now or in the very near future.

For other exhibits, there can be a regional or national focus ie smart sustainable technology from the UK, Finland, Germany (Fraunhofer Inst), China, Ukraine, Russia, or Singapore, Hong Kong etc

Corporate sponsors might include: Walmart, Rona, Home Deport, Canadian Tire, Loblaws, Sears, Imperial Oil, the banks (RBC, TD, RBC BMO) etc.

The Sustainability Showcase could be housed in a physical location, or it could tour from location to location around the city or province or be mobile ( on a bus the way the Japanese and Korean do- a display bus turned into a demo center that tours from school to school or to fairs and exhibitions.

OCAD students and staff and Beal senior fellows could play a hand in designing exhibit spaces and sourcing new vendors and sustainable technologies.

Several other revenue opportunities could spin off from this as well

Here’s just a few examples of what can be showcased

1) Environmentally sensible packaging such as Mercury-Absorbant NanoSponge packaging for broken compact fluorescent lamps (CFL's) http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2008/06/mercury-absorba.html

2) Concrete Wood (from the example I mentioned June 2 at OCAD, when Bob Logan was bemoaning the lack of durability of pressboard shelving from Ikea.  See Concrete Wood from lodgepole pine trees destroyed by pine beetles (kills two birds with one stone) http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2007/11/concrete-wood.html

3) End of Traditional Heating and Air conditioning Thin-film version of Active Building Envelope (ABE) systems could make conventional air conditioning and heating equipment obsolete http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2006/07/thinfilm_versio.html

4) OLEDs New High efficiency flat light source OLEDs > Almost any surface in a home, whether flat or curved, could become a light source: walls, curtains, ceilings, cabinets, shelves or tables.  Http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2006/04/new_high_effici.html

Lots more like these

For anyone who is interested in exploring the idea of a Smart Sustainability Showcase for Toronto, we are having a meeting on Tuesday July 22 at 11 am at the Ontario College of Art & Design (OCAD), Beal Institute for Strategic Creativity, room 600, 6th floor , 100 McCaul St, Toronto just south of the Ont Art Gallery.

Please RSVP, so we know how many people are coming

I have had some positive feedback from several organizations, & I’d like to push the concept forward

I'm sending this nationally and internationally in  case you are aware of any designers, vendors, manufacturers or research centers who have interesting cutting edge smart sustainable technology to showcase.

Contact me by email

----Walter  Derzko; Senior Fellow Beal Institute for Strategic Creativity, OCAD 

© 2005-2008 Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant, Keynote Speaker and Lecturer on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack Threat Raised in US Congress!

After the breakup of the Soviet Union (which happened back in 1991), I had the unique opportunity to visit a group Ukrainian scientists - mostly communication and IT specialists at one institute formally involved in military communications, now expanding into civilian applications. (Ukraine ...and not Russia was the actual "brains" and electronics manufacturing center and powerhouse behind the entire Soviet space program.) I was scouting for examples of science breakthroughs with commercial potential and was eventually escorted by the great folks at the Science and Technology Center in Ukraine or STCU in Kyiv to an complex which include a series of large non-descript 2 to 3 story-tall round pods (see scale model in top picture). The domes resembled astronomical observatories but with intricately spaced patchwork of criss-crossing metalic looking pipes encircling the entire structure -like scales on a dinosaur. Apparently, this was shielding to prevent against attacks of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) radiation - an advanced version of the basic Faraday Cage (see the ceiling in the second and third pictures)

As mentioned earlier, these used to be secret military establishments and I was reminded that I was one of the first westerners to see the inside and to visit them. In fact, they stressed the point that if I was caught inside this facility during the days of the USSR, I would have likely been shot as a cold war spy.

(Picture to the left) Legandary Ukrainian hospitality and superb cognac.

The memories of that visit came back to me today as I was reading about the hearings in the US House of Representatives last week about the threat of Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attacks against the USA (and by shear proximity Canada, as well) by hostile nations and proxy terrorists....remember Bond and Dr Strangelove?

These could include China, Russia and potentially Iran, North Korea and other rogue states. Iran has been testing sea-launched rockets in the Caspian Sea, with the tacit blessing of Russia.

An EMP blast from a 200 KiloVolt /meter bomb (which the Russians have admitted inventing) detonated 200-300 Km above Nebraska (in the middle of the USA) would fry all electrical and electronic machinery and circuits from the east coast to the west coast of the USA (and Canada as well) that are not EMP hardened or shielded.

Everyone should read this short report called The Emerging EMP Threat to the United States, by Dr. Mark Schneider , National Institute for Public Policy , Foreword By Congressman Roscoe Bartlett , U.S. House of Representatives (http://nipp.org/Adobe/EMP%20Paper%20Final%20November07.pdf )

And a must see ---an absolutely fascinating video by Congressman Roscoe Bartlett called Electromagnetic Pulse Attack Threat Raised in US Congress!”   (see http://cspanjunkie.org/?p=171 )

The above report says:

"Modern electronics are particularly vulnerable to EMP effects. In 2004, the report from the Congressional Commission on the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) warned that:

Depending on the specific characteristics of the attacks, an unprecedented failure of our major infrastructures could result. In that event, a regional or national recovery would be long and difficult and would seriously degrade the safety and overall viability of our nation . . . The longer the outage, the more problematic and uncertain the recovery will be. It is possible for the functional outages to become mutually reinforcing until at some point the degradation of the infrastructure could have irreversible effects on the country’s ability to support its population.

While there would be little or no immediate loss of life resulting from this type of attack, modern electronic equipment would be damaged or destroyed over a large area with tremendous economic, political and military consequences for the nation. The Congressional EMP Commission concluded that nuclear EMP attack is currently a feasible option for Russia or China and a future capability for rogue states, such as Iran and North Korea. These nations could use EMP attacks to degrade the effectiveness of deployed on U.S.forces by knocking out or disrupting their electronics and communications. “

During the period of NATO military operations against Serbia in 1999, Russian Duma members threatened a U.S. Congressman with a nuclear EMP attack against the United States. Congressman Roscoe G. Bartlett (R-MD), records this encounter in 1999:

"We met with three of our Russian counterparts on the Duma International Affairs Committee, including its chairman, Vladimir Lukin, and senior Communist Party member Aleksandr Shabonov. On May 2, [1999] the Russians chastised the United States for military aggression in the Balkans and warned Russia was not helpless to oppose Operation Allied Force. Lukin said, ‘If we really wanted to hurt you with no fear of retaliation, we would launch an SLBM [submarine launched ballistic missile] and detonate a single nuclear warhead at high altitude over the United States and shut down your power grid and communications for six months or so.’ Shabonov added, ‘And if one weapon wouldn’t do it, we have some spares.’¹¹

..[over 10,000 to be exact...wd]

Despite the reduction in the size of the Russian strategic nuclear force, Russia is apparently not neglecting the EMP attack potential of its strategic missile force. Dr. Lowell Wood has stated that Russia has continued to maintain the ability to launch a massive EMP attack on the United States. In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Dr. Wood observed that:

“Soviet strategic strike forces characteristically have featured weaponry well-suited to efficient EMP generation over exceptionally wide areas. That EMP strike component exists today in the Russian strategic order-of-battle, moreover likely at its maximum Cold War strength. I very confidently predict that it will be one of the last features of Soviet strategic nuclear weaponry to be retired from the Russian strategic force structure”¹² (Emphasis as in the original).

One way to protect yourself is with EMP shielding or hardening. But,EMP hardening is a long obsolete & forgotten capability/activity in America and Canada. In fact N.A may not even have the widespread expertise to do this any more. According to one report: many EMP testing facilities have been closed since the end of the Cold War, according to William A. Radasky, president of Metatech Corp. and an expert on protecting electronics from EMP. In addition, the Construction Engineering Research Laboratory of the Army Corps of Engineers used to investigate materials and processes for EMP shielding applications. But, according to a spokesman, “All the money for that research dried up after the Berlin Wall came down.” Maybe Ukraine can help the West and reciprocate by providing EMP hardening shielding, manufacturing capabilities and experts.

Ethnic patterns in the emerging science of pharmacogenomics or Is there a gene for being Russian ? Could it be a target for ethnic bioweapons? 07-172

Just as we hear news that the entire genome of James Watson- the scientist who discovered the DNA helix structure, is the first to be sequenced for less than $1M and taking 2 month's time, a more sinister story appears  half way across the globe. (BTW, the Human Genome project cost $3 Billion   and took 7 years. The price tag several months ago was $500,000, today it's $100,000; the mid term target under $10,000 and long term for $1,000; & you can now get 1% of your genome deemed most medically useful sequenced for only $1,000)

The newspaper Kommersant, writes:

"Last week the Russian Federal Customs Service (FTS) shut down the export from the country of all human medical biological materials, from hair to blood samples.

According to information obtained by the Russian newspaper Kommersant, the decision by the FTS was prompted by a report submitted to Vladimir Putin by the FSB that focuses on bioterrorism and the alleged development by the West of "genetically engineered biological weapons" .....targeted specifically at Russians.

Well, even the prestigious Science magazine from the UK, New Scientist gave it coverage when the story broke.

But with so little concrete information and only accusations, it's hard to tell at this point if this a hoax, Russian propaganda reminiscent of the cold war or a knee-jerk reaction to a real concern?

.....One thing I can speculate is that this is not an asymetric situation- if the west is doing it, then so are the Russians...the west may just be further ahead, hence the panic warning by the FSB--WD

"Federal Customs Service head Andrei Belyaninov also confirmed the existence of the ban yesterday, but declined to provide any further details, saying only that the ban on the export of biological materials is a consequence of a "special regime" introduced by the FTS "on the initiative of the Ministry of Health. He conjectured that the grounds for the decision may be "scandals involving the transplantation of human organs."

However, the English language Kommersant later writes:

FSB officials explained that this is... "part of the agency's struggle against "bioterrorism," a struggle that President Vladimir Putin approved in 2004 against what has so far been a phantom enemy."

"An [unnamed] source in medical circles who is acquainted with the situation told Kommersant that the ban follows the presentation of a report by FSB head Nikolai Patrushev to President Putin in early May of this year.

"According to the source, the report thus characterizes the situation in the market for clinical trials:

Sounding like a Hollywood SciFi thriller movie...[wd] ..."several large Western medical centers that receive shipments of biological materials from Russia are said to be involved in the development of "genetically engineered biological weapons" for use against the Russian population.  The list of organizations purportedly working on the project includes the Harvard School of Public Health, the American International Health Alliance, the Environment and Natural Resources Division of the US Department of Justice, the Swedish Karolinska Institute and Agency for International Development, and the Indian Genome Institute. Kommersant's source reported that the report contains a wealth of fantastical details about the development of "ethnically oriented" biological weapons capable of rendering Russia's population sterile and even killing it off."

"IMHO, looking at straight forward Russian demographics, drug use, suicides, uncontrolled pollution, drinking water problems and alcoholism, Russian society is doing a credible enough job of creating its own sterile population and killing itself off, without any outside intervention. The Russian population fell by nearly 800,000 people last year

Sounds like the Russians are setting the stage to blame the west for all its social ills instead of itself for its lack of anything resembling a effective nation-wide social program.--wd

More immediately, this move could threaten the lives of tens of thousands of patients in the country where labwork is all outsourced to the west and completely paralyze clinical research trials being conducted by Western pharmaceutical companies in Russia, a business that is estimated to be worth $100-150 million annually.  Other countries are likley to jump in to pick up the "left behind" clinical trial business such as neighbouring Ukraine, the Eastern European block countries and possibly India and China.

"[unnamed] Sources indicate that the ban on the export of biological materials was a direct result of a government memo signed by First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov that was circulated on May 22, 2007 to Health Minister Mikhail Zurabov, FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, and Justice Minister Vladimir Ustinov.  However, it has so far been impossible to determine whether that memo was linked to Mr. Patrushev's report about bioterrorism."

In a related story the BBC reports on a newscast aired by NTV Mir, Moscow, in Russian 1500 30 May 07

[Aleksey Yablokov, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Science] said " when molecular biology was developing and the human genome was being decoded, the military did indeed spend vast amounts of money to produce these ethnic weapons, and they were produced.  We know it.  For instance, special molecular genetic matrices were made to destroy only the blacks and spare the whites."

...N.B In the time-honored Russian tradition of vagueness, there was no mention in the above story which country's military did this research. Was it the Russians ? the USA? or someone else? The finger-pointing seems to be at the USA.

This notion of ethnic genetic variability is supported by clinical trial data, released this weekend in a press release titled..Gene variations point to why lung cancer drugs work better in Japanese vs. US patients.

"Last year, a groundbreaking international project found that a group of Japanese patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer survived longer —and had a higher rate of side effects — than U.S. patients with the same diagnosis,.when both groups were given two well-known drugs for the disease.

Now, a follow-up study suggests the reasons appear to lie in subtle variations in certain genes that govern how the body metabolizes chemotherapy drugs. The discovery that Japanese and U.S. patients, matched in age, gender and other respects, had differences in key metabolism-related genes is the latest result from a seven-year collaboration between the Southwest Oncology Group and two clinical trials groups in Japan. The recent study breaks new ground by exploring the possible role of ethnic patterns in the emerging science of pharmacogenomics, which promises to tailor drug regimens to a patient’s genetic profile." 

“Nobody else in the world has ever done this, with a common arm looking at genetic differences among ethnic groups,” say researchers.

...this just shows again that technology is a double edge sword.

© 2005-2007

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

UK Government publishes Strategic Horizon Scans

The Horizon Scanning Centre has commissioned two complementary scans looking ahead up to 50 years : the Sigma Scan and the Delta Scan.

Initial versions of both scans have been published by the contractors who developed them : Sigma Scan by Outsights - Ipsos MORI and Delta Scan  by the Institute for the Future (IFTF).

The Sigma Scan is a broad synthesis of some of the world's best Horizon Scanning sources. It covers future issues and trends across the full public policy agenda. It is drawn from a range of sources including think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals, charities/NGOs, blogs, minority communities, and futurists.

The Delta Scan is an overview of future science and technology issues and trends, with contributions by over 200 science and technology experts from the worlds of government, business, academia and communication in the UKand US.

Develeped over 2005 and 2006 by a team of consultants and futurists,  the Scanning Framework has some novel methodologies and catagories. Each main issue is described as an Issue paper.

The main text of the Issue Papers themselves is divided into a number of different sections:


Headline: Headlines provide a brief description of the future eventuality discussed a pithy note on the main themes contained within the paper.


Keywords: Keywords summarise the coverage of the issue and suggest related issues, domains or topics.


Summary: The summary provides first an Abstract of the Issue (delimited by asterisks) for a quick overview of the whole paper, followed by a description of the trend, event or theme and the debates it raises. This is generally a presentation of the data/evidence in this field, linked where necessary to sources (with no fixed view on likely outcomes).


Implications: this contains a range of possible outcomes that could flow from the Issue as described in the Summary. These incorporate a number of factors where appropriate, including social values, habitat/environment, new technologies, knock-on and perverse effects. Early Indicators: This aspect of the Paper suggests possible early warning signs and precursors that should be looked for to indicate that the Issue may indeed be developing as described in the Paper.

Drivers and Inhibitors: Factors, people, institutions or events which will either fuel (Drivers) or act as a barrier (Inhibitors) to the emergence of this Issue.


Parallels and Precedents: Historical, international or cross-cultural examples of
somewhat similar instances which may shed some light either on the evolution of the Issue or the likely success of different strategies in response.


Sources: The list of sources consulted in writing the Paper, with web links, documents and location information where applicable.


Related links: a list of websites that may be of further interest to the reader relating to the topic


Sigma Scan basics: Issue Markers

Each issue has been further labelled with a number of Markers, which provide highly indicative (i.e. not predictive) information about the possible likelihood, impact,
distribution, severity and development time of each Issue:


Impact: This marker is designed to reflect the potential of this issue to create pervasive and/or serious change in the world at large: a development which in cultural, technological, environmental, economic or political terms alters the way we live or perceive the world. Impact is divided into:

• ****Extreme: Intense, deep-seated, pervasive or long-lasting in its effects. An event/development which profoundly affects the planet for example, an asteroid strike.
• ***High: A great event in human history, something that shapes human history and leaves longstanding cultural residues for example, the moon landings, the establishment of the United Nations, a major pandemic.
• **Medium: A defining aspect of a particular generation or nation's experience of the world. An important footnote in world history, such as the implementation of the Euro, the fall of the Berlin Wall.
• *Low: A development whose scope to instigate change is subtle or in some way restrained by conditions, medium, force, locality or likely responses. Something that captures the news agenda for months or years, but eventually fades into the cultural memory for example, the cultural changes of the 1960s.
• ?Unknown: There is no consensus within the literature about how best to interpret this issue.

Likelihood: The likelihood that this issue will evolve to become a central theme/development - in some way - in future society within its projected life span. The likelihood markers are:

• ***High: 75+% confidence that the events discussed will come to pass.
• **Medium: An equivocal 50/50 call.
• *Low: 25% or less probability.
• ?Unknown: No consensus about the likelihood.
  
  

Controversy: The level of consensus amongst experts, commentators and other observers holds that the Issue will unfold in the way described in the Paper and/or assume a greater significance in acting as an instigator of change. The controversy markers are:

• ***High: Very few experts pay the issue serious attention, and there is very little consensus about the extent to which this issue is likely to emerge. There is very little known evidence for this issue, and what there is highly unconventional, or propounded by alternative sources.
• **Medium: Whilst there is some kind of conventional consensus, futurists and/or alternative sources dispute whether this issue is likely to be a central development in future. Evidence is somewhat equivocal or open to scrutiny, even within expert audiences.
• *Low: The majority of experts, as well as a large volume of authoritative evidence, point to this issue emerging as a central theme over the next 50 years.
• ?Unknown: No known consensus on how to apply this marker.

When: The expected timeframe for this issue to influence C.21st life to the degree ascribed to it under "Impact". Divided into:

• 0-2 years: This impact of this issue is already being felt or will be in the immediate future
• 3-10 years: Likely to be under way but perhaps not well distributed. Wider effects felt over the near horizon
• 11-20 years: Mid horizon effects
• 21-50 years: Mid to far horizon effects
• 50+ years: Far horizon effects ?Unknown: High level of uncertainty as to when this impact could be felt

Where: The geographical spread of the Issues impact. Divided into:

• Domestic/national Largely restricted to particular nation states (e.g. UK)
• Regional Largely restricted to major global regions/continental areas (e.g. EU, Latin America)
• Global Potential to be experienced anywhere/everywhere on a global scale
• ?Unknown

How fast: How quickly the events and potential impacts described in the Paper could be
experienced:

• Instant in a matter of moments
• Days over the course of days
• Months over months
• Years over years
• Unknown

Sigma Scan basics: Issue Genres


As well as the markers, each paper is also classified into a number of different Genres. This is identified at the start of the Summary in capital letters and is supplied as an at-a-glance way for users to decide what sort of critical thinking they should apply to their reading of the paper. (e.g. in the same way that we would apply different critical faculties for reading a work of science fiction than we would for reading todays
newspaper).

Weak signal: A primarily descriptive Paper attempting to shed light on a relatively little known, weakly felt or poorly distributed phenomenon a possible baby trend at the relative margins of current knowledge. The Implications of this style of paper tend to be limited to explaining what is already starting to happen, and the Drivers / Inhibitors are important in deciding whether it will grow into a Key Driver or dwindle into nothing. The aim of Weak Signal papers is to inform readers about trends or
potential events that might slip under the radar.

Forecast: An Issue for which there is a relatively high degree of certainty, at least in terms of its likely presence as a force for change, based as it is on robust quantitative data and relatively stable variables. Forecast papers are based upon well-grounded and
authoritative sources, drawing on models or statistics to draw conclusions.

Key driver: These Papers describe a relatively more mainstream and better-known trend or development. Something that would probably on the radar of most policymakers or strategy thinkers. Key Driver papers provide a top-level review of the trend for the uninitiated, and aim to stretch the more informed reader with some wider Implications Parallels / Precedents beyond the usual inferences and certainties.

Scenario: A Paper which takes as its evidence base published scenario work from other sources. It therefore discusses the range of uncertainties and drivers that have been discussed in developing these scenarios and compares the assumptions in them. Rather than describing a possible driver of future change, it therefore examines the feasibility and possible implications of a particular hypothetical future.

Wildcard: An Issue with the potential to emerge unexpectedly but with potentially major impacts. Often, these papers deal with a radical discontinuity, as compared to other, more continuous and/or gradual trends.

T-ray breakthrough could make detecting disease and explosives far easier

A breakthrough in the harnessing of 'T-rays' - electromagnetic terahertz waves - which could dramatically improve the detecting and sensing of objects as varied as biological cell abnormalities and explosives has been announced.

Researchers at the University of Bath, UK, and in Spain have said they have found a way to control the flow of terahertz radiation down a metal wire. 

Terahertz radiation, whose frequency is around one thousand billion cycles a second, bridges the gap between the microwave and infrared parts of the electromagnetic spectrum.   X-rays, microwaves, radio waves and visible light, are all manifestations of electromagnetic radiation at different frequencies

Materials interact with radiation at T-ray frequencies in different ways than with radiation in other parts of the spectrum, making T-rays potentially important in detecting and analysing chemicals by examining how they absorb T-rays fired at them.

This would allow quality control of prescribed drugs and detection of explosives to be carried out more easily, as many complex molecules have distinctive 'signatures' in this part of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Problem:

T-ray applications are presently limited by the relatively poor ability to focus the rays, which is achieved using the conventional means of lenses and mirrors to focus the radiation.  This limits the spot size of focused T-rays to a substantial fraction of a millimetre and this has made studies of small objects such as biological cells with high resolution are virtually impossible.

Smart Solution:

In their work, the researchers found that although ordinary metal wire would not guide T-rays very well, if a series of tiny grooves was cut into the wire, it would do so much more effectively.  If such a corrugated metal wire is then tapered to a point it becomes possible to very efficiently transport radiation to a point as small as a few millionths of a metre across.

Significance:

This might, for example, lead to breakthroughs in examining very small objects such as the interior of biological cells where it might be possible to detect diseases or abnormalities.  T-rays could also be directed to the interior of objects which could be useful in applications like endoscopic probing for cancerous cells or explosive detection.

"This is a significant development that would allow unprecedented accuracy in studying tiny objects and sensing chemicals using T-rays" said Dr Stefan Maier, of the University of Bath's Department of Physics.

"Metal wire ordinarily has a limited ability to allow T-rays to flow along it, but our idea was to overcome this by corrugating its surface with a series of grooves, in effect creating an artificial material or 'metamaterial' as far as the T-rays are concerned."

"In this way, the T-rays can be focused to the tip of the wire and guided into confined spaces or used to detect small objects, with important implications for disease detection or finding explosive that are hidden."

ETA: 2007

The researchers hope to produce a working model within a year.

Original Research:

Their findings are set out in a letter published in the current journal Physical Review Letters titled "Terahertz surface plasmon polariton propagation and focusing on periodically corrugated metal wires".

Full press release >> [...]

© 2005-2006

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  - Margaret Mead

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Happy 1st Birthday to the Smart Economy Blog; Announcing a new Web site, Monthly workshops and webinars

Today marks the 1st anniversary of the Smart Economy Blog. We've received many encouraging feedback & emails from our readers over the past year and good suggestions from positive-focused critics for future improvements.

• According to Pingpoat, The Smart Economy Blog is worth  is $1011.17!  per day
• Inbound links: 1085
• Technorati rank: 34,021

So today, I'm announcing a series of new "smart" initiatives that we will be kicking off in October 2006.

The Smart Economy is growing exponentially and so are we, right along with it.

Smart Economy Learning Series-monthly workshops in Toronto

Starting in October 2006, we will be launching a monthly series of one-day workshops on topics that our blog readers say interest them. These include:

• Latest Tools for Advanced Environmental Scanning, Managing Information Overload and Sense-making ( October 12, 2006, BCE Place Toronto) email me asking for a registration form
• Lateral thinking in business  (Date TBA)
• Developing foresight in your business or industry  (Date TBA)
• Resolving conflicts and disputes using lateral thinking (Date TBA)
• The Opportunity Clinic --Scanning your business environment for Opportunities(Date TBA)
• The Idea Lab --Designing smart products and services that will drive business development forward (Date TBA)
• Introduction to Business Development --Tracking emerging technologies as threats or opportunities for your business (Date TBA)
• Technology Assessment for Investment Professionals & High Tech Startups (Date TBA)
• Building a Busines Case for Smart Devices, objects and services (Date TBA)
• Designing winning business modles for Smart Technologies (Date TBA)

Register today, since space will be limited. Past workshops have sold out quickly.

The Smart Economy Web Page

We are finally in the last stages of planning and constructing our new web site for the Smart Economy. Watch out for launch date soon.

The Smart Economy Webinar Series.

Also starting in October 2006, we will host a monthly opportunity for our blog readers to phone in and participate in a "live seminar" which will include power-point slides and a Q&A session, all from the comfort of your PC or laptop. It will be on some current topic related to the smart economy and some rising smart technology that will be coming into prominence soon. This will be a subscription based series.... We will try to keep the price reasonable so that everyone can participate. Subscription information & schedule will be out soon. Watch for announcements.

Thanks again for all your ideas and keep the feedback coming in.

© 2005-2006

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight,, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To arrange for an in house presentation on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

.......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to. - H. Mumford Jones

"Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  A. Einstein

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Looking for Feedback on the Smart Economy Blog

Today is a bit of an anniversary for the Smart Economy. Since I started on this blog last Fall (Sept 15th, 2005 to be exact), I've posted 500 entries (this is # 501). We've received over 100 comments online and many more private direct emails. Our daily traffic is growing steadily month by month, as word spreads about The Smart Economy. Many other influential and popular web sites, trend syndication services and blogs now link back to us.

• According to Pingpoat, The Smart Economy Blog is worth is $1011.17!  Per day
• Inbound links: 1085
• Technorati rank: 34,021

I'd like to hear feedback from you --- our blog readers. How can we improve this site?

• what do you enjoy reading about smart technologies?
• what else would you like to see?
• what don't you like? what annoys you?
• what suggestions do you have for future topics?
• what  would you like to see more coverage of?
• do you use RSS? would you subscribe to a Smart Economy RSS  news feed?
• would you like to hear news about the smart economy on your Mp3 player?
• would you like a one-stop-shop to purchase smart technologies?
• would you find road maps for smart technologies useful for your worK?
• would you subscribe to a monthly online seminar (webinar) on smart technology?
• would you find workshops on smart technology topics useful?
• how do you use our information? investment decisions? strategic decisions? alliance decisions? other?

Post your replies or comments in the comments box below or send me a private email

I look forward to hearing from you.

Enjoy the rest of 2006 and 2007 and I hope to see you back here on a regular basis.

All the best !!

Walter Derzko

RAND Scenario planning and Gaming exercise addresses America's Achilles heel -Sea Ports

Yesterday after a bomb scare, no explosives were found in the Port of Seattle The port set up a perimeter of nearly half a mile around one of its terminals Wednesday after bomb-sniffing dogs indicated that two containers from Pakistan could contain explosives, but none was found.

This type of scenario, where a WMD -in a  worst -case-a nuclear device smuggled in through a USA sea port into the country, has long been anticipated by terrorism experts and I'd say it's America's Achilles heel

According to a report released this week by the RAND Corp, the scenario involving the detonation of a nuclear weapon at the Port of Long Beach in California would be catastrophic for the entire United States, leading to 10 times the economic damage caused by the Sept. 11 attacks,

RAND's Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy examined the effects of a 10-kiloton nuclear explosion at the port.  Such a blast could "devastate a vast portion of the Los Angeles metropolitan area" within 72 hours, kill 60,000 people immediately and expose another 150,000 to radiation, according to the analysis.

The explosion and fires could destroy the infrastructure of the Port of Long Beach and neighboring Port of Los Angeles, along with all ships docked at the two facilities.  The ports handle about one-third of U.S. imports.

Some 2 million to 3 million people might also be forced to relocate from contaminated areas, and destruction of port area oil refineries could result in large-scale gasoline shortages.  If all U.S. ports were subsequently closed for security reasons, there could even be global repercussions, the report warns.

"It would take years to recover economically" from such an attack, Michael Wermuth, RAND homeland security research director, told the Los Angeles Times.  "It would take any number of years before some of the area close to ground zero could be rebuilt, and some of it would not be habitable for 20 years" according to the , Los Angeles Times,

See Full Report  (72 pages)

Stealth Radar sees through walls, trees undetected

Ohio State University engineers have invented a radar system that is virtually undetectable, because its signal resembles random noise.

The radar could have applications in law enforcement, the military, and disaster rescue.

Erik Walton Eric K. Walton, senior research scientist in Ohio State's ElectroScience Laboratory, said that with further development the technology could even be used for medical imaging.

He explained why using random noise makes the radar system invisible.

"Almost all radio receivers in the world are designed to eliminate random noise, so that they can clearly receive the signal they're looking for," Walton said.  "Radio receivers could search for this radar signal and they wouldn't find it.  It also won't interfere with TV, radio, or other communication signals."

The radar scatters a very low-intensity signal across a wide range of frequencies, so a TV or radio tuned to any one frequency would interpret the radar signal as a very weak form of static.

"It doesn't interfere because it has a bandwidth that is thousands of times broader than the signals it might otherwise interfere with," Walton said.

The radar can be tuned to penetrate solid walls -- just like the waves that transmit radio and TV signals -- so the military could spot enemy soldiers inside a building without the radar signal being detected, Walton said.  Traffic police could measure vehicle speed without setting off drivers' radar detectors.

Like traditional radar, the "noise" radar detects objects by bouncing a radio signal off them and detecting the rebound.  The hardware isn't expensive, either; altogether, the components cost less than $100.

The difference is that the noise radar generates a signal that resembles random noise, and a computer calculates very small differences in the return signal.  The calculations happen billions of times every second, and the pattern of the signal changes constantly.  A receiver couldn't detect the signal unless it knew exactly what random pattern to look for.

The radar can be tuned to penetrate solid walls -- just like the waves that transmit radio and TV signals -- so the military could spot enemy soldiers inside a building without the radar signal being detected, Walton said.  Traffic police could measure vehicle speed without setting off drivers' radar detectors.  Autonomous vehicles could tell whether a bush conceals a more dangerous obstacle, like a tree stump or a gulley.

The radar is inherently able to distinguish between many types of targets because of its ultra-wide-band characteristics. 

"Unfortunately, there are thousands of everyday objects that look like humans on radar -- even chairs and filing cabinets," he said.  So the shape of a radar image alone can't be used to identify a human.  "What tends to give a human away is that he moves.  He breathes, his heart beats, his body makes unintended motions."

These tiny motions could be used to locate disaster survivors who were pinned under rubble.  Other radar systems can't do that, because they are too far-sighted -- they can't see people who are buried only a few yards away.  Walton said that the noise radar is inherently able to see objects that are nearby.

"It can see things that are only a couple of inches away with as much clarity as it can see things on the surface of Mars," he added.

That means that with further development, the radar might image tumors, blood clots, and foreign objects in the body.  It could even measure bone density.  As with all forms of medical imaging, studies would first have to determine the radar's effect on the body.

ETA: The university is expected to license the patented radar system.

Full Press Release

© 2005-2006

Walter Derzko

Expert, Consultant and Guest Speaker on emerging Smart Technologies, Strategic Planning, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

To arrange for an inhouse presentation on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

.....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"- old Japanese proverb

.......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to. - H. Mumford Jones

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page